BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,396 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 59 of 68
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  1. It’s good to see Albo campaigning on the ground over in WA but surely Bill Shorten as ‘leader’ should be spending a couple of days a week at least over there calling out this Govts deceit and destruction.

  2. No comment

    [John Howard has been named Australia’s best prime minister of the past 40 years, followed by Bob Hawke, with Gough Whitlam and Kevin Rudd tying for third place.

    The poll, conducted last week by Essential Research and provided exclusively to The Australian, shows that 39 per cent of voters ranked Mr Howard, the Liberal prime minister from 1996 to 2007, as the best.

    Labor’s Mr Hawke was rated as the best prime minister by 14 per cent of voters. A further 8 per cent of voters chose Mr Whitlam while another 8 per cent selected Mr Rudd.

    Paul Keating was named best prime minister by 7 per cent, placing him fifth overall. In sixth and seventh place, respectively, were Julia Gillard (4 per cent) and Malcolm Fraser (3 per cent). Tony Abbott’s score tied with Mr Fraser.]

  3. poroti
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 12:59 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Now you can tell them why and remind them who is not doing anything about it 🙂

    I will as I did this morning at coffee with very pro LNP supporters re Changes to Seniors Card not ruled out by TA> Not happy I can assure you, as I said “hit their hip pocket” 😀

  5. Briefly

    Thanks.

    “Astro, it helps to see growth as a consequence of our economic system rather than as its cause. The economy is structured to favour those who can make gains in efficiency. Considered from the viewpoint of the whole population, gains in the efficiency of production amount to real income gains: more can be done with the same or fewer inputs, so there is an increased surplus available for new, additional production. It follows that more human needs can be satisfied with the same or fewer inputs. The satisfaction of some (though certainly not all) human needs can be (somewhat crudely) measured as “change in output” or “growth” because their satisfaction occurs by means of priced exchanges.”

    So you are saying that with the same inputs (or resources) growth can be factored just through ‘improvements’ whatever they may be.

    That sounds right to me, although over time this sort of growth will diminish – you can’t keep improving indefinitely. You run into a big thing called entropy.

    So in that regard, the only way we can ‘grow’ the econommy is through constant improvements to technology. The problem I guess there is that there are two big problems: vested interests opposing the change (eg from coal to renewables); and the problems associated with ‘cost’ – it’s such an incomplete measure that judging things by their cost is exceedingly difficult.

  6. poroti/mari

    [Now you can tell them why and remind them who is not doing anything about it ]

    Shorter surfboards and shorter surfers will solve this problem.

  7. “@AlboMP: Media Conference soon with @Louise_Pratt and @AlannahMac at Great Eastern Hwy and Roe Hwy on #infrastructure”

  9. Dave,

    My point was merely that the minimal reporting of that particular case, in my opinion, was appropriate in its minimalism. It is her right not to disclose her mental condition, and indeed after it became clear it may inhibit her duties, she resigned. I think that the way it was reported should be applied in all similar situations. Even as a public figure she has a right to privacy. Such a right extends to everyone, no matter their political affiliation.

    [Another situation, in NSW. A minister in the former NSW Labor government was put under the surveillance of a private investigator by the murdoch media, ie the daily telegraph.

    The PI eventually ‘collared’ him visiting a gay male “club/ sauna” on his own time and ran a multi page spread with pictures etc (of him going and out of the club, detailing how long he spent there) and built increasing pressure daily, resulting in his resignation from the ministry and retirement at the next election.

    He had broken no law yet was hounded from office. The DT originally tried to claim he had abused the use of his self driven government vehicle, but that assertion was false – he was allowed to use the vehicle in his own time.]

    I believe it was actually Channel 7 and he chose to resign, I don’t think Cabinet or even Channel 7 tried to force him to resign, as they clearly had no grounds whatsoever to do so. It was, however, an absolutely disgusting and inexcusable invasion of his privacy by the media that rightly drew public condemnation and from other parts of the media.

  10. I think the real issue is population growth. While population continue to grow economies will continue to grow to support the increased numbers. The big issue in my opinion is what is a sustainable population growth and what are the alternatives?

    It’s a pretty scary question.

  11. WA police minister Liza Harvey has declined to comment on whether she was informed by police (a normal requirement) if Troy Buswell was involved in an “incident” at his address on the night in question, saying the Premier was the best person to comment.
    It should be noted that all MP’s addresses are logged by police & any incident is reported to the Commish & minister.

    They’ve known for 15 days & tried to cover it up.

  14. CTar1
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 1:02 pm | PERMALINK
    poroti/mari

    Now you can tell them why and remind them who is not doing anything about it

    Shorter surfboards and shorter surfers will solve this problem.

    I will advise some of the tall surfers around here that clever idea 😀 Bye everyone!

  15. I got very disenchanted with Rugby League a lot time ago: just one pokie palace competing against another, using money harvested from gambling addicts to pay working class kids who risk getting brain damage.
    However, the story in today’s SMH in which Ian Roberts says he got brain damage (after being knocked out about 10 to 12 times in his career) is quite shocking.
    If they are going to continue to allow rugby league to be played (and the other codes for that matter) shouldn’t they be forced to lift the salary caps so that players can earn money (during their short careers) which properly rewards them for the risks they run. There are no salary caps for club executives, of course. In the US they have, at least, got that right in professional sports (if not college). The players get a set share of the income (about 65% I think).

  16. Steve777,

    There are too many examples to count, and that’s just while they’ve been in Government.

    Rossmg,

    [The pension increase this month means that a home owning couple can have an income of around $73,000 a year and still get a part pension. You only need to get a dollar in age pension to get all the benefits that go with it. Personally I think that is a bit generous.[

    Fair call. It’s all quite far off for me so it’s not something I think about at all. After finally reading a statement from my Super provider (after about 6 unread letters) which contained some things I wasn’t expecting I decided I may need to force myself to look into these things more. An episode on the Checkout was actually quite helpful in that regard.

  18. My order of ‘best’ [sic] PMs, ‘best’ at top, worst at bottom [would make a cute poll], score out if 10

    Gough ….6

    Gillard…4
    Rudd …..4
    [or the reverse]

    Hawke ….3
    Keating…2

    Fraser …1
    Howard …0

    Abbott … negative numbers.

  20. Buswell continues to be a problem for the Premier. The bloke has had more convictions than Ned Kelly. Surely he won’t come back from this one?

  21. zoidlord

    As it was an eastern brown it earns 2 bonus points which puts Australia up 3-1 vs NZ . In January over the ditch.

    [Man fights off shark, stitches up own leg, goes to the pub

    ….bites up to 5cm long .Grant gave himself stitches using a first aid kit he kept in his vehicle for pig hunts. He and his friends then went to the Colac Bay Tavern, where he was given a bandage because he was dripping blood on the floor.
    The stitching was finished off when he went to Invercargill hospital, where he was back at work on Monday.]

  22. Imagine if Buswell & Barnett were Labor politicians…

    How would Mordor & Spokes(sic) report it?

    Spokes(sic) controls the only newspaper & #1 TV station in Wait Awhile. BOTH. Are rabidly anti Labor.

    It all stinks to high heaven.

  23. fredex it depends on how you rate PM’s. If it’s the ability to take the people with you in government and policy development and implementation then Hawke is head and shoulders above the rest on that list. Howard would be a distant second. Gillard would have to come last. That is probably the basis ordinary people responding to the survey would use although I don’t understand how they put Howard ahead of Hawke.

    It’s a pretty subjective thing rating PM’s.

    Personally I would put Hawke ahead of any other PM on any basis for rating the performance of PM’s.

  24. Laurie Oakes on the 1st March

    SHORTEN withdrew and apologised when Ronaldson denied the allegation. The faulty memory of Labor MP David Feeney was to blame.

    The truth, though, is that Ronaldson did make an offensive remark to a general at a committee hearing in 2007. It was Major-General Steve Gower, then director of the Australian War Memorial, not Lieutenant-General Gillespie.

    [Ronaldson suggested Gower had allowed then prime minister Julie Gillard to hold a news conference at the War Memorial in order to ensure his reappointment — not an accusation of cowardice, certainly, but an allegation that impugned the general’s character nevertheless.

    Hansard shows that Feeney, a member of the committee, demanded a withdrawal, but Ronaldson refused.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/opposition-leader-bill-shortens-problems-are-mounting/story-fni0fha6-1226841141216

  28. victoria – But a typical tory article by Laurie. Don’t talk about Tony – just change the topic. I think Bill’s doing alright.

  30. “@latikambourke: WA Premier Colin Barnett says Tsr Troy Buswell is resigning immediately as a cabinet minister. ‘I accepted his resignation.’ @abcnews”

    On 24 now

  31. [2905….Astrobleme]

    Of course, you’re right: entropy is a feature of all dynamic systems. But surely this means we have to study dynamism as such. You’re also right about the retarding role played by vested interests. Essentially, these rent-takers inhibit gains that would otherwise be available to the whole population.

    We also need to think of the capacity to carry out research and introduce technical innovations as a fundamental resource in itself. Perhaps it is human and/or social capital in its purest form. We should expressly attract, cultivate and nurture this capital, which offers very high rates of return to those that understand and are able to best marshal it.

  33. k17

    Article by Oakes was from last weekend. That was when the 54/46 newspoll had come out in Labor’s favour. Remember when it was the other way around during the Gillard tenure? Amazing how this mob continue to say up is down and black is white

  37. VICTORIA – Compare bill with people like Brendan Nelson – he’s clearly up to the job.
    But I’m becoming an keen watcher of the archetypal tory trick of changing the topic.

  38. Going by the story on Buswell the bloke shows a serious lack of judgement that should disquality him from office. Silly, silly man.

  42. [ fredex

    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

    My order of ‘best’ [sic] PMs, ‘best’ at top, worst at bottom [would make a cute poll], score out if 10

    Gough ….6

    Gillard…4
    Rudd …..4

    or the reverse

    Hawke ….3
    Keating…2

    Fraser …1
    Howard …0

    Abbott … negative numbers.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    Fred – you get my vote – Gough wins hands down as a visionary – in health, education, aboriginal affairs ……etc etc ….so many achievements …..and ending conscription ! …… and wanting to ‘buy back the farm’ ( not by the best method I guess ) …..

    http://whitlam.org/gough_whitlam/achievements

  43. [ Bugler
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    My point was merely that the minimal reporting of that particular case, in my opinion, was appropriate in its minimalism. ]

    Still missing the point. A Laborite in the same position would have had/ do have their situations plastered in the media well before case even got to court.

    I’ve made this point many times now.

    There was no basis for fishers arrest/ charging/ bail not to get ‘normal’ media. Its not as if people accused normally get a choice if such details receive publicity or not.

    Up until a ‘mental illness’ defence was entered, there was no basis for so called ‘minimal reporting’. It was selected none reporting – which is totally different to what Labor people often get.

  44. The issue with buswell is nothing new the story today should be barnett’s incredible judgement failures in resurrecting this clown over and over again. Is Barnett a fool or what?

  46. guytaur@2932

    @TenNewsPerth: RT @Rebecca_C_Johns: Police have just turned up at Troy Buswell’s Subiaco home – taking photos of crash evidence http://t.co/0TV3aqjY4T

    Ahh Perth’s finest never let lose a minute. Right onto a case ‘only’ two weeks after the event.

    Warms the cockles of your heart to see such ‘application’ and determination to get to the bottom of a situation.

    sarcasm off.

  48. Obviously Buswell is cooked, but that’s not the big story. Unless Barnett can convincingly show that Buswell lied to him and that he didn’t know about the crash, he’s in very deep trouble.

  50. david

    [fredex it depends on how you rate PM’s]
    Obviously.

    [ If it’s the ability to take the people with you …]
    That’s largely determined by the media and usually unrelated to the rest of your sentence
    [in government and policy development and implementation]
    which also depends strongly on the nature of the policies etc.

    Hawke’s policies were mainly negative in their impact on the Australian people. A mixed bag. A lot of the ‘good’ was platitudes never carried out properly, mainly image without substance.
    Keating a lesser version of Hawke, both mainly praised for pushing a right wing agenda eg Accord, privatisation ..
    Howard did one thing positive [gun control] and was lauded by the media for all else which were negatives, some very much so -xenophobia, racism, incompetent economic management, class elitism, tax cuts for the rich, increasing poverty and inequality – a dismal failure of a PM.

    Rudd did some things good, saved us from the GFC – a huge tick – the apology and some bad, continued the Intervention, terrible on asylum seekers, chickened out on climate change.
    Gillard much the same as Rudd but pushed through climate change, NIDS, NBN, Gonski but still failed with asylum, attacking single mums, Intervention and, like all of them, [except Gough] keeping us in immoral wars.

    Abbott is clearly the worst in that he is copying Howard without any semblance of competence at all.

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