BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,396 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 60 of 68
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  1. With Buswell’s resignation from cabinet and hopefully soon from parliament, who are the likely successors to Baryard?

  2. I’d have a breakdown too if I woke up with a massive hangover and a smashed up ministerial car in the driveway and foggy memories of a short police visit.

    Unbelievable stuff.

  3. That surveys of PMs would be highly subjective and subject to the personal experience of those surveyed. The youngest person to have voted for (or against) Bob Hawke would be turning 42 this year. The youngest to have voted for Whitlam would be turning 57. Those below Australia’s median age (about 37) would only remember Keating, Howard, Rudd and Gillard. If they grew up in a household with a strong interest in politics they might remember Hawke from their childhood and early teens.

  4. So where has Buswell been these past two weeks?

    Apparently the police were aware of what happened on the night (from the ABC story):

    [Police say they received a call early that morning regarding a traffic matter on Roberts Road in Subiaco on that date.

    A police traffic enforcement vehicle attended the location shortly afterwards.]

    So did they not try to interview the gentleman and breath test him at that time or take him to the police station for further BAC testing?

    Obviously Barnett learned pretty quickly what happened. Why did he try to keep it quiet? Did he hope that the story would not leak out and Buswell would return to work as if nothing had happened?

    Who leaked the story to the media last night? Or did they know all along?

  5. badcat

    Yep they were the things I was thinking of.
    The rest are just not at the same level.
    Gillard tried – it would be fascinating to see what she could have achieved in an Oz without Murdoch types.

  6. citizen

    [Who leaked the story to the media last night? Or did they know all along?]
    In a story about the member of the public who was following Buswell’s car they said he called the police and media outlet(s?).

  7. WeWantPaul@2953

    I’d have a breakdown too if I woke up with a massive hangover and a smashed up ministerial car in the driveway and foggy memories of a short police visit.

    Unbelievable stuff.

    As is the time he has been given to try and come up with a ‘story’.

  8. Dave,

    I’m not sure what you want me to write. I agree that the coverage of Labor politicians in “scandals” or in court has at times been pathetic. I don’t see the point in salivating over hypothetical outcomes to cases. Let the courts do their jobs. I don’t see the relevance of when the media became aware/cared about the mental illness side of things. That involves and entirely different argument. Most posters here have a longer memory than I do.

    Besides, the most high profile case here in Victoria was/is that Frankston turd. When it became an issue he was still part of the Liberal party and Baillieu/Napthine were backing him.

  9. [Who leaked the story to the media last night? Or did they know all along?
    ]

    The west reports that the witness who reported the driving to the police approached seven and the west over the weekend. Presumably because the west had run a ‘what the hell is going on’ story and otherwise the coverup was holding.

  10. victoria@2960

    dave

    It sure smells like an arse covering and cover up exercise by Barnett and Co

    Vic – the coppers don’t look good either.

    They need long sticks with mirrors to even find their arses.

  11. Steve 2954, you had to be aged 21 to vote in 1972, not 18 as of today. The exception was for national servicemen. I was betwixt and between then, but I can at least boast that I voted for the Great Man in 1974.

  12. If Buswell has been in hospital for ten days as reported, then it defies credulity that Barnett was unaware of his Treasurer’s whereabouts.

    Police are now involved probably because a car accident that has injuries attached has been reported.

    No doubt the hospital where Buswell has been confined took the equisite blood alchohol readings.

    If Buswell has had a mental breakdown as reported then I sympathise and wish him a speedy recovery.

    But, this whole explanation seems rather murky to say the least.

  13. I could have worded that post infinitely better.

    Short summary: The media should report court proceedings as minimally as possible so as not to prejudice the case, unless there is a serious flaw in the process that requires investigation. They should stick to facts and allow the courts to apply an even standard. If Mary-Jo’s mental health impacted on her ability to perform her duties and was unable to manage her condition, and wished to continue, against both the interests of herself and the position she holds, certainly the media should have scrutinised the case. This eventually proved unnecessary.

    However, despite serious doubts in the way the media have conducted themselves over various court matters regarding Labor politicians, the most significant example I can think of getting significant media attention was that of Geoff Shaw, now independent MP for Frankston who formerly employed the support of both Liberal leaders Napthine and Baillieu.

  14. [ Bugler
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    I’m not sure what you want me to write ]

    I’m writing as I see it and have repeatedly pointed out you have got your sequence of events way out of whack and come up with an opinion/ conclusion that doesn’t recognise what actually happened and in what order.

    Yet again, media didn’t report her situation for six months or so – all long before the ‘mental illness’ defence emerged.

    A remarkable situation – thats my point. A situation that seems to be seen with tories found in trouble – again one of my main points.

  15. Victoria and Poroti – thanks for the information on Buswell’s breakdown and hospitalisation.

    So Buswell was not in a state to explain his actions publicly.

    Barnett however was obviously trying to keep the story hush hush. He should have realised that the details would become public sooner or later. He seems not to employ a PR person skilled in damage control procedures.

  16. Can anyone find the report on Buswell before the resignation ? I’m fairly sure as they described the eyewitness’s account of Buswell’s driving that night the eye-witness , as well as alerting the police, also called ” media outlet(s)”

  17. If I heard correctly the Premier said Buswell had be undergoing treatment in a Sydney Clinic.

    Gee that is a long way away from the west coast.

    I just wonder what his condition was like whilst travelling from Perth to Syd, and who accompanied him on the trip. Did he travel with medical staff.

    Gee did he even notify the airline (which one) as to his delicate mental state prior to escaping sorry travelling across the continent.

  18. Ross @2966 – I was thinking of 1975, by which time Whitlam had reduced the voting age to 18. The youngest person to have voted for Whitlam in 1972 is now 62- too young to be ‘elderly’ but too old to be middle aged. My first vote in any election was for Whitlam.

  19. GG

    [Police are now involved probably because a car accident that has injuries attached has been reported.]

    I must have missed that bit?

  20. Dave,

    I don’t think the lack of reporting of her crime and her mental state was surprising or particularly controversial because she was a backbench Senator who hadn’t served a full term, hadn’t done anything significant or noteworthy, and wielded close to no influence while holding a seat of no significance. That’s just my opinion, but I think it’s pretty likely the reason. I don’t have anything else to say on the topic

  21. At the very least Barnett is going to get more questions while pondering on his Ministerial reshuffle with two portfolios to fill.

  22. Psephos

    Like many wa rural MPs buswell has a home in Perth. Well actually he has had a few homes, one before had hooked up with Adele carles, one with her, a fellow minister’s couch and now wherever it is he has been living lately
    His arrangements caused him some strife a little while ago and when he had to pay back some expenses.

    And as for whoever accused the media of being in on the cover up. Get a grip. It was Channel Seven and the west Australian who broke the car crash story after a tip from the public. If they wanted to cover it up it would not have been on the front page of the paper.

    Police procedures will be queried. It is normal for police to inform the minister when an MP is involved in an incident. When this was done or why it was not done sooner will be the focus of attention.

    But at the end of the day it doesn’t matter whether it was covered up or not. Buswell. Is gone, Barnett is shaken and it is three years to the next state election. And the Tories will be relying on that as much as anything in how this plays out.

  23. The description of the various bits of damage to the car and property don’t sound as if anyone driving the car would have been injured.

  24. sohar
    [

    Unlike here, I guess NZ has no football on at that time.]
    Re 20th.All Blacks vs S.A. 13th Sept AB’s vs Argentina 27th. What luck for Key 🙂 Saffa game in Wellington and all.

  25. Bugler@2982

    Dave,

    I don’t think the lack of reporting of her crime and her mental state was surprising or particularly controversial topic

    Well I said a couple of hours ago I disagreed with you on and I still disagree.

    The “mental illness” only emerged when the case came to court long after her being caught stealing/ assaulting the security guard.

    Labor people in trouble often find full details of their situation in the media from day one and the media tipped off so that it can all appear on the nightly TV news with footage of “the walk of shame” etc.

    I’ll have a lot more to say on the issue when we see further detail on the chair sniffer.

  26. [West Australian Treasurer Troy Buswell has resigned after having a breakdown, Premier Colin Barnett says.]

    Why didn’t he just call a mechanic?

  27. [At the very least Barnett is going to get more questions while pondering on his Ministerial reshuffle with two portfolios to fill.
    ]

    The cupboard is bare – Barnett might offload transport – possibly to Ms Harvey – would be surprised if he didn’t deliver the budget and maybe stay on as treasurer even after that. I think the politics of having Mike Nathan as treasurer might be problematic.

    Tragics might want to download the current cabinet PDF before it is updated.

  28. rossmcg

    [ But at the end of the day it doesn’t matter whether it was covered up or not. ]

    It does matter. It matters a lot.

    Potentially it may involve corruption or conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

    The details need to come out and who was involved.

    The law needs to be seen to be applied without fear or favour or its Rafferty’s rules.

  29. [ fredex

    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    Yep they were the things I was thinking of.
    The rest are just not at the same level.
    Gillard tried – it would be fascinating to see what she could have achieved in an Oz without Murdoch types.
    ]

    —————————————————-

    I often wonder how the world might have been if JFK had not been assassinated …… and if Gough had longer to complete his visions for Australia ….

    ( both were not without human faults – but who the f@#K isn’t ?????? …… and certainly they were both men of great vision for their respective countries – the like of which we have not seen since – just my opinion. )

  30. [New Zealand will go to the polls on September 20.]

    Announcing it quite early, I see. If experience here is anything to go by, that presumably means something sinister for Key

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