Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

The first Victorian state poll of an election year has the Labor opposition maintaining a modest but decisive lead. UPDATE: And now we have a Galaxy poll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49.

On top of the shock finding from New South Wales (see below), Nielsen also produces a good state voting intention result for Labor from Victoria, albeit a less surprising one. The poll gives Labor a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Denis Napthine holds a 45-35 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier. Leader satisfaction ratings still to come, maybe …

UPDATE: The Age report features leadership and further attitudinal results.

UPDATE 2: And now we have a Galaxy poll which has the Labor lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor, 37% for the Liberals and 5% for the Nationals, and 12% for the Greens. Denis Napthine leads Daniel Andrews as preferred premier by 40-32. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1068.

UPDATE 3 (6/3): And now Newspoll’s turn: steady on the previous bi-monthly result at 53-47 to Labor, with primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 13% for the Greens (down one). Denis Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 41-27 to 39-28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

53 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. [its leader, Daniel Andrews, is yet to capture the imagination of voters as the November 29 election looms.]

    Voters don’t want their imaginations captured, whatever that means. They want a government that is stable and competent and protects their jobs, and so far this government fails on all three. They will take Andrews on trust if he looks safe and competent.


    [Voters turn on Coalition over Hazelwood mine fire, poll finds
    March 9, 2014
    Tom Arup
    Environment editor, The Age

    The Napthine government faces a political backlash in the Latrobe Valley as a result of the Hazelwood mine fire, with almost 40 per cent of voters in the region saying they are now less likely to vote for the Coalition at this year’s state election, a new poll has found.

    In results that could have implications for the state seat of Morwell, held by the Nationals, the poll found that in the four major valley towns, Labor is easily leading the Coalition on primary voting intentions – 45 per cent to 31 per cent.]

  3. The problem with Andrews is I don’t know how safe he’ll be if/when Labor wins Government. The rift in the Right that enabled him to gain the leadership is now mended, and any excuse may be employed to topple him. That’s my fear, and I certainly hope Labor has learnt from recent experience elsewhere to know better. I, however, do see it as a possibility. Not that I see it affecting the election result.

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