Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

The first Victorian state poll of an election year has the Labor opposition maintaining a modest but decisive lead. UPDATE: And now we have a Galaxy poll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49.

On top of the shock finding from New South Wales (see below), Nielsen also produces a good state voting intention result for Labor from Victoria, albeit a less surprising one. The poll gives Labor a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Denis Napthine holds a 45-35 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier. Leader satisfaction ratings still to come, maybe …

UPDATE: The Age report features leadership and further attitudinal results.

UPDATE 2: And now we have a Galaxy poll which has the Labor lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor, 37% for the Liberals and 5% for the Nationals, and 12% for the Greens. Denis Napthine leads Daniel Andrews as preferred premier by 40-32. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1068.

UPDATE 3 (6/3): And now Newspoll’s turn: steady on the previous bi-monthly result at 53-47 to Labor, with primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 13% for the Greens (down one). Denis Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 41-27 to 39-28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

53 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

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  2. Deb

    Yes it looks like an eight seat gain but that will only give the ALP 48 seats therefore even though the poll looks good for the ALP if the Liberals were somehow able to pull one or two back then it would be a close result but if the rumors of Liberal Party concern about seats like Ringwood (6%) and Caulfield (9%) then it might be a pretty strong ALP win.

    If Labor won 8 seats as you say… MB…then they would have 51 seats in a new P’ment..and the coalition only 37,,a majority of 14 seats…a very substantial margin

  4. Deb

    Yes currently they do but due to the redistribution several of them have fallen into the Liberal column.

    Yan Yean
    and the new seat of Wandaree (sorry for the incorrect spelling)

    I image several of these will fall to the ALP


    At this stage i don’t see any Green gains from the ALP.

  5. Tom

    Why can’t the Greens win any seats from the Liberals.

    Also i saw an old seat map back from the 1950s and noticed that when the ALP won Hawthorn the boundary was very difference.

    It contained Burnley and South Richmond plus the part of Hawthorn west of Auburn Road which meant non of Camberwell was in the seat.

  6. 6

    If the Coalition get the East-West Link contract signed before the election and the ALP maintain their current policy of not cancelling it if the contracts have been signed, then the Greens will be hard to beat in the inner-city.

  7. 8

    Yes the Greens are in with a shot in Prahran but, despite it being a Liberal held seat, the Greens would be probably winning it off the Liberals at the expense of the ALP because they would need to overtake the ALP and get their preferences (like when they won Balmain in 2011) and ALP to Green preferences (under compulsory preferences) are about the same as Green to ALP preferences.


    As the Greens are to the left of the ALP and the Liberals to the right, there are relatively few voters who vote for the the Liberals who would consider changing to the Greens.

  8. Prahran

    Would be more in contention now that Toorak has been moved to Malvern.

    The Windsor end of Prahran tends to place the ALP ahead of the Liberals, so it is possible that Prahran might turn into a ALP v Green seat.

    If the Greens were able to push the ALP to third in Richmond at the last federal election then anything is possible but i would image the Greens would be disadvantaged this time around due to the ALP not being in government thus less reason for a protest vote.

  9. 15

    Prahran has been a marginal seat for decades. The Liberals will be in contention there for the foreseeable future. At this year`s election, Prahran will be a three-way marginal seat. The Greens are in with a chance of winning by overtaking the ALP and winning on their preferences.

  10. Tom the !st and Last ____
    Actually from memory , I think about 40% of Libs prefs in Melb went to Adam Bandt in Melb federal seat …despite the HTV card for the Libs putting him behind Labor..many Libs simply liked Bandt..a great member..or refused to give Labor their prefs and voted Green,so he had a comfortable win

    Actually in terms of strategy the Libs would be better to give prefsto the Greens and see then take a number of inner city seats…thus perhaps depriving Labor of a majority in the House,and making it a minority Govt depending on the Greens
    The Lib right wingers,mostly hardline catholic anti-abortions like Finn.and Fed member Andrews and others hate the Greens on the social issues alone

  11. Deb

    The problem with that strategy is the Greens have shown a lack of willingness to work with the Liberals when in government.

    If the Greens were more flexible, the Liberals and Greens could swap preferences which would cause the ALP all sorts of problems not just in the inner city but middle suburban seats like Ivanhoe and Eltham.

  12. 18

    If the Greens showed a greater willingness to work with the Liberals when the Liberals are in government and/or direct preferences to the Liberals, a lot of people who currently vote Green would show a lack of willingness to do so.

  13. Talk of Greens-Lib exchange of preferences ignores the fact that most Greens voters are pretty politically aware and committed to policy & principle and therefore likely to ignore such cards.

  14. 20

    Greens voters are unlikely to follow them, many of them would however change their vote from Green to another candidate because of such a how to vote card.

  15. Tom

    Maybe so but if the Greens really want to claim inner city seats from the ALP then they will need to examine some form of relationship, not necessary a close embracing one but rather a relationship which is closer enough that the Liberals would be more willing to preference the Greens.

    Currently the Liberals know that the Greens are not willing thus there is little incentive to preference them over the ALP although many inner city Liberal voters as seen in the last federal election are happy to ignore the HTV card.

    I suspect many inner city Liberals and Greens have a lot in common particularly in areas relating to planning and addressing traffic congestion.

  16. pritu

    I was thinking more in regards to the Greens benefiting from Liberal preferences.

    If the Greens and Liberals ever reached a preference arrangement there are a number of seats which would become very interesting.

    Green voters are generally no more intelligence than any other voters, actually the highest educated seats are overwhelmingly strong Liberal Party seats.

  17. 22

    The Greens are doing quite well in getting Liberal preferences in the seats they need it in. Doing something major to attract Liberal preference recommendation would probably endanger more Green primaries than it would bring in in preferences and without enough primaries to get them, preferences are useless.

    Also, if the Greens win Prahran, it will be on ALP not Liberal preferences.

  18. It’s not quite impossible as there has been a precedent of Greens having to work with the Libs.

    I’d like to see a situation where someday the Libs and Labor might be forced to form a grand coalition in a situation where the numbers will not allow either to form a minority government with a minor party. It’s a tough choice to make where they’re forced to cooperate or face backlash by forcing a re-election on the voters.

  19. [Yes the Greens are in with a shot in Prahran]

    Oh tosh. The Greens vote will go down, as it has at every election since Bob Brown retired. They’ll be lucky to hold their upper house seats.

  20. Tom

    [and the ALP maintain their current policy of not cancelling it if the contracts have been signed]

    I hope you’re not seriously suggesting that the Greens are talking about not honouring signed contracts.

  21. Sadly, it seems certain that there are quite a number in the upper echelons of the ALP who are quietly hoping that contracts for the disastrous east-west tollway will be signed before the election so they wont have to be in a position of saying one thing while actually wanting another.


    [Denis Napthine has bad poll news, east-west link not popular
    March 2, 2014
    Farrah Tomazin
    The Sunday Age’s state political editor.

    The Napthine government is heading to an election with its key priorities in doubt, as most voters remain unconvinced about the east-west link and more than a quarter say public safety is getting worse.

    Despite countless hours and millions of dollars spent marketing the $8 billion road project, the latest Age/Nielsen poll has found that only one in four Victorians believe the tunnel should be the highest infrastructure priority to ease congestion and improve liveability.

    Instead, most people want the government to build the Metro Rail Capacity Project – a nine-kilometre underground train line through the city that would allow another 20,000 passengers to use the network during peak hour.]×349.jpg×0.jpg

  23. Yeah, E-W link is a dog. The VIC ALP needs to take a tougher stance on this:
    – the govts own reports says it will INCREASE traffic on Hoddle/ Punt
    – and it will LOSE money.

    In other words, A financial flop and a policy flop. So why is it even proceeding? Its a good example of the problem with PPPs, which even a conservative economist like Sinclair Davidson note are “All too often…financing mechanisms looking for infrastructure to finance, as opposed to being a positive NPV infrastructure project looking for financing.”

  24. 30

    The Greens are against the East-West Link because it is bad policy. The current government has no mandate to sign the contracts because they took a pro-PT campaign and specifically said, when asked, that they had not plans for such a road.

    The Greens are not talking about just walking away from the contract, compensation would be involved. These things do happen from time to time. The then new NSW Coalition government did cancel a railway project in 1988. These thing do happen in a democracy and to say the government should never cancel a contract is wrong (unlike the Greens position now, the NSW Liberals had committed to finishing the project before the election and the project was much further along).

    It is the ALP who are irresponsible in saying they will allow the project to continue if the contracts are signed. They are encouraging the government to ignore the will of the electorate.

    Also the Greens voters would, justifiably, tear them to shreds at the next election of they supported a government that was continuing with the project.

  25. The Greens like to claim that they are intelligence yet they do seem to have missed a thing called contract law.

    When a contract is signed if it isn’t honored then it will result in a major pay out.

    As much as E-W Link is questionable particularly the part between the Eastern and Citylink, the second part has more merit and should be considered providing a link between the Western Ring Road and Citylink.

  26. Tom

    If the ALP government were to proceed with E-W Link the Greens would still overwhelmingly preference them.

    In 2010 did the Greens preference the ALP, after all the E-W Link project was part of the Victorian Transport Plan.

  27. 36

    If the Greens get the balance of power, then the Greens would be very unlikely to support any government that went ahead with the East-West link. If the contracts get signed before the election and the ALP say they will thus go ahead with the project, the Greens will use that to shift votes from the ALP to the Greens (especially in the inner-city).

  28. 35

    Yes there would be a payout, which I have mentioned above, however payouts do not require the unnecessary demolition of homes and businesses, the destruction of Royal Park, obstruction of Doncaster Rail, the encouraging of driving, etc. If they payout is to large then the state government can use its control over contract law to change the situation.

    There are already connections between Citylink and the Western Ring Road. The Westgate, the Tullamarine and several arterial roads. Any claims for any need for such a road are just road lobby lies.

  29. Tom

    The E-W link project was in the Victorian Transport Plan.

    The Westlink project was a difference project aimed at truck movements.

  30. 40

    You are confusing the Truck Action Plan (from an earlier ALP transport plan and not mentioned by the ALP in 2010) and its extra ramps to the existing Westgate with the proposed Westlink Tunnel from the Ring Road to the port.

  31. Tom

    I seem to recall that Westlink was the name used for the Track Action Plan and as you rightly indicate it went from the Western Ring Road to the Port.

    E-W Link went under the Maribyrong River

  32. 42

    The real Truck Action Plan was/is (it is now back in favour with the ALP and never fell out of with many people in the West) for ramps starting at the west facing ramps of the Westgate Freeway at Williamstown Rd and then over Williamstown Rd and then down to Hyde St to allow a truck route to the port that does not go along Francis St.

    Westlink was to run from the Port of Melbourne, under the Maribyrong River, under Footscray and then above ground through the industrial areas of Brooklyn and Sunshine West to the Western Ring Road. THis is now planned (by the current government) to be the western prt of the East-West Link. It is still shown on the Melway as Westlink (at the time of publication of this comment).


    [Labor moves ahead with Victorian voters
    March 02, 2014 10:30PM
    Herald Sun

    DENIS Napthine is yet to win over Victorians a year after replacing Ted Baillieu as premier, and a train to Melbourne Airport is voters’ top transport priority.

    Labor is up almost 3 per cent from the Liberal and National parties on primary vote since the 2010 state election and is now leading the Coalition 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

    If repeated at the next election, this would see Daniel Andrews replacing Dr Napthine as premier with a one-seat majority, following last year’s redistribution.

    In a blow to Dr Napthine’s chances of winning in November, a majority – 54 per cent – of voters don’t believe his government has done enough to protect Victorian jobs, while almost half – 46 per cent – believe the state is heading in the wrong direction.


    Asked to rate the four transport infrastructure projects likely to be on offer at this year’s election, 34 per cent of voters said the a rail link to airport should be given top priority, ahead of 30 per cent who gave Labor’s plan to remove 50 of Melbourne’s worst level crossings their top vote.


    On the plus side for Dr Napthine, voters prefer him to Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews by 46 per cent to 27 per cent, almost the same margin – 45 per cent to 26 per cent – who think he would be better at managing the economy.

    Voters also consider Dr Napthine to be more trustworthy – 38 per cent to 29 per cent – to Mr Andrews, while 40 per cent of voters think he has a better vision for Victoria’s future, compared with 30 who prefer Mr Andrews on that front.]


    [Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll reveals airport rail link our top priority
    March 02, 2014 11:13PM
    Michelle Ainsworth
    Herald Sun

    VICTORIANS want a rail line to the airport ahead of a new rail tunnel through inner ­Melbourne or the East West Link, a Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll has found.

    More than one-third of voters surveyed in the poll said a city to airport rail link should be a higher priority than other major infrastructure projects promised by the Government and State Opposition.


    POLL RESULT: Which one of these projects do you think the state government should give the highest priority?

    Building a city-airport rail link: 34%

    Removing Victoria’s worst 50 level crossings: 30%

    Building the East West Link between Sunshine and the Eastern Freeway: 15%

    Building a Melbourne Metro rail tunnel: 15%

    Uncommitted: 6%]

  35. Neither of the articles seem to give all the raw primary figures, and I can’t find anything else online. Maybe we have to check the hard copy of the Herald Sun to see a table?

  36. The full Galaxy Vic figures are on their site.

    [26/27 Feb 2014

    With an election due later in the year the state of Victoria is evenly poised. While Denis Napthine is seen as a better choice of Premier than Daniel Andrews, the Labor Party hold a narrow lead on a two party preferred basis.


    This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of 26-27 February 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,068 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.]


    [Voters desert Coalition in droves as jobs disappear
    The Australian
    March 06, 2014 12:00AM

    THE collapse of the car industry and widespread manufacturing job cuts have stifled the Victorian Coalition’s recovery, with voter support locked at the career-ending levels suffered by former premier Ted Baillieu.

    THE collapse of the car industry and widespread manufacturing job cuts have stifled the Victorian Coalition’s recovery, with voter support locked at the career-ending levels suffered by former premier Ted Baillieu.

    The latest Newspoll shows Victorian Labor retaining a six-point lead (53 per cent to 47 per cent), but its leader, Daniel Andrews, is yet to capture the imagination of voters as the November 29 election looms.

    Labor’s primary vote of 39 per cent is its highest in 17 months, with the Liberals’ 35 per cent the lowest since 2012 and the Nationals languishing on just 3 per cent.


    The Greens’ primary vote is 13 per cent, compared with 11.2 per cent at the last election, and the 53 per cent to 47 per cent two-party vote compares with the 48.4 per cent (Labor) and 51.6 per cent (Coalition) 2010 election result.]

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