Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government’s worst poll result since it came to power.

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

• Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

• The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 37
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  1. [If the farmers receiving drought assistance go belly up who would be left holding the debt?]

    Abbott mentioned this today, wtte “The Govt will be in the same position as the banks are now” In other words taxpayers.

    Plus the Government may be kicking people off their farms, this is how stupid the policy is.

  2. Did you know that there are over 10 million images of wildlife inc insects on Flickr, and that that in the US alone people are creating over 300 billion images a year?

  3. Psephos admitted the other day that he identified with a range of cruel or sadistic characters; I don’t bother with anything he has to say.

  5. [ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott got flogged in QT today, I doubt the News will report it but he will know it.]

    What! Labor got there arse handed to them on a plate thanks to Conroy.

  6. [ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:02 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Are you really really dumb or just really dumb?]

    A weather-vane.

    In other words, a fake, of the highest order.

    He lied about handing out HTV cards for Labor in Queanbeyan if Rudd was re-installed.

    Of course, he reneged.

    It is typical of the fraudulent behaviour we’re witnessing today from the LNP and their supporters.

    Not to be trusted.

    But it is okay to pet him on the head when he ruins a $50,000 plus fire-truck. It’s rescue will be paid by taxpayers. Not that that matters to Rummel. Age on Entitlement means Rummel too.

    Not to mention IVF being paid by taxpayers. But Rummel doesn’t give a shit about that either.

    He’s entitled.

    But other folk who volunteer and know how to drive are not entitled. They’re called LOSERS in Rummel territory.

  7. MTBW@1376

    dave

    Apart from maniacal Lib supporters I can’t imagine how the Libs can think they can justify this and get away with it!

    Ego writ large!

    I think Labor could very easily set speaker bishop up, day after day. Allows one thing for tories, will not allow the same for Labor.

    Hope they are working on it.

  8. BH – Many thanks. Will listen. I know that Verrender was very upset when he got retrenched at Fairfax (Yet they kept Elizabeth Knight – go figure). Bit surprised though that the ABC has taken him on, because he doesn’t pull his punches.

  9. [ rummel
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Conroy seems to have Shortens measure! Conroy pulls the union official strings and can cut Shorten off at the knees at ant time, just like Rudd.

    What a shame, more Labor leadership issues to come.
    ]

    Sad for the Liberals, but this time round you have to come up with something better a wormed up version of ruddstoration

  11. [BK
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    If the farmers receiving drought assistance go belly up who would be left holding the debt?]

    It was clear before the decision that the farmers and the bankers were in cahoots to transfer risk to the taxpayers. Given that the debt is around $70 billion, $840 million is a drop in the bucket.

    The major, major crime is to allow fools on tens of millions of dollars a year to take whatever risks they fancy with QANTAS’ future now that the debt has been underwritten by your good self and my good self with no other return for our investment than QANTAS destroying thousands of Australian jobs.

    Tres, tres crimenelle, policy-wise, IMHO.

  15. [What! Labor got there arse handed to them on a plate thanks to Conroy.]

    That was the plan, the reality is different. Abbott et al have been exposed for using the military for political ends, exactly what they accused Conroy of doing.

    They are so desperate for an angle, they will use the ADF to try and score points. Result – mess on face for desperate Government.

  16. [sohar
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Psephos admitted the other day that he identified with a range of cruel or sadistic characters; I don’t bother with anything he has to say.]

    If you were planning to make yourself look like you can’t keep a consistent thought in your head for more than 10 nanoseconds, your plan is working admirably.

  21. guytaur Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:00 pm @ 1386

    The Greens had good reason to preference him over the Liberals and Labor.

    It was a decision to get Palmer rather than another LNP member. Good decision in my view

    I disagree. I think the issue of climate change is far more important than that of asylum seekers. Sure I don’t like what our Government is doing in regards to asylum seekers. But it only affects a few thousand people. Climate change affects the whole planet and it’s getting worse.

    Preferencing Palmer ahead of Labor potentially puts all our efforts to slow down climate change (we can’t stop it) at risk.

    IMHO, the Greens got it seriously wrong on this issue.

  23. BK

    Police said…

    While I am dead sure that ice is horrific, I have developed an inner resistance to automatically believing anything at all that police say.

    In my direct experience they can be just like Abbott. Their lips move.

  24. Labor guaranteed the bank debt of Australian banks for a fee, if the Liberals guaranteed Qantas debt ( a greater risk) for nothing, Labor should belt the Liberals again and again for their incompetence.

    Guaranteeing the debt and losing control with foreign ownership just compounds the Liberals display of incompetence.

  25. A handspan huntsman (ie 6″ plus) has taken up residence amongst my clean towels. They will NOT be changed this week (or next). I do no like to kill them, but nor do I wish to socialise

  29. Boerwar

    [If you were planning to make yourself look like you can’t keep a consistent thought in your head for more than 10 nanoseconds, your plan is working admirably.]

    Nice put down.

    Except for the fact that Psephos has been excessively boorish over the past while.

    Hubris mixed with excited mis-reading of posts whenever a Nazi or German war crime is mentioned.

    Like sohar, I don’t bother with anything he has to say, either. It is generally historically passe, or contemporary bullshit, despite his colourful colourings-in of exotic election locations.

    Nice family, but.

  31. Kezza @1406

    You were asking about cyber bulling earlier. Well your post is close to it…

    You are right, I did not chose to hand out how to vote for Rudd. I would have been to embarrassed standing in front of a Labor sign at that election.

    [But it is okay to pet him on the head when he ruins a $50,000 plus fire-truck. It’s rescue will be paid by taxpayers. Not that that matters to Rummel. Age on Entitlement means Rummel too.]

    lol, perhaps i should not have rescued the trapped people. Dam those Australian people who feel entitled to have emergency service’s try and rescue them.

    [Not to mention IVF being paid by taxpayers. But Rummel doesn’t give a shit about that either.

    He’s entitled.]

    Wrong, I have never used IVF… ha!

    [But other folk who volunteer and know how to drive are not entitled. They’re called LOSERS in Rummel territory.]

    You are a angry person and i feel sorry for you Kezz2.

  32. [daretotread
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
    A handspan huntsman (ie 6″ plus) has taken up residence amongst my clean towels. They will NOT be changed this week (or next). I do no like to kill them, but nor do I wish to socialise]

    DTT, just pick up the towels, carry them outside, and shake off the offender 6-incher. You’ll feel the better for it.

    If it runs, turn the bank of towels.

    Seriously, huntsmen don’t bite, unless tormented.

    And it takes a real woman to understand that most indoor huntsmen are actually huntswomen nesting.

    You wouldn’t want an alien to swat you just because you’re looking after your babies, would you?

  33. rummel

    I hear that, by the time that Abbott is finished with the ACT, the survivors will be heading out to what is left of Struggletown. For this reason alone I am grateful for your attempts to spare Queanbeyan from the various droughts, firestorms and floods that nature+AGW is sending your way.

    In the face of all that, what is a fire truck, more or less?

  36. r

    tsk, tsk. You are confusing Dr Spencer’s misrepresentations with reality: think earth heat, not atmospheric temperatures.

    Spencer is seriously religiously kooky, BTW.

  38. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:31 pm | PERMALINK
    k2
    I would like to point out that being boerish is actually rather good.]

    Of course you do. 🙂

    But I didn’t mis-spell, which CMIIW, you used to get so upset about.

    But a cute way to hide behind an especially egregious support for a bloke who single-handedly is, on this blog anyway, trying to rid my Labor party of left support.

  40. The indies (well, at least some…) are fairly obviously working hand in glove with the Abbott government at present.

    Cathy McGowan has asked a couple of questions of Truss, which he was able to answer in amazing detail (in one case, down to a $5000 promise to a local shire….)

    And then we have Wilkie’s little effort today…

  41. Hon Bob Katter MP ‏@RealBobKatter 7m

    Gov #drought package signs death warrant of agriculture w 70% QLD suffering @ mercy of drought of biblical proportion pic.twitter.com/YeQCNToswV

  42. [What Global Warming………. nothing for years.]

    doGs, Rummel, are you still swallowing that Grumpy True
    Disbeliever effluvia??

    I know it fits with Fiberal policy, but the whole “No warming since 98” has been done to death and pretty much proven as bollocks on a das Monkers scale.

  43. For spider fans the kiwi Black Tunnel Web spider is pretty impressive. Peter Jackson reckons it inspired his depiction of Shelob.
    Retiring sorts that hung out in the bush a big one is pretty scary when it runs out from between its silk “blankets. As you can see from its body type it is no surprise it is one of the world’s heaviest spiders.

  44. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:40 pm | PERMALINK
    Hey Rummel, how does it feel to not speak your own words??]

    Working for Menzies house is a privilege and i’m actively seeking the Deputy Human Right Commissioner position.

  45. More waste:

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Matthew Knott ‏@KnottMatthew 10m

    Kevin Donnelly and Ken Wiltshire are being paid $429 a day to review the national curriculum, Senate #estimates told.

  46. There may be many farms that have not received an income due to weather related issues for 3-4 years, but to call it drought is crap.

    If your farm was under water for two years, then you get no rain in the next, who to blame?

  48. rummel
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
    [Kezza @1406

    You were asking about cyber bulling earlier. Well your post is close to it…]
    As I said in an earlier post, regarding cyber-bullying, perhaps I could sometimes be accused of same.

    [You are right, I did not chose to hand out how to vote for Rudd. I would have been to embarrassed standing in front of a Labor sign at that election.]

    Despite your promise to hand out HTVs for Labor if Rudd was re-installed. Empty promise, rummel.

    Liar or hypocrite?

    [But it is okay to pet him on the head when he ruins a $50,000 plus fire-truck. It’s rescue will be paid by taxpayers. Not that that matters to Rummel. Age of Entitlement means Rummel too.

    lol, perhaps i should not have rescued the trapped people. Dam those Australian people who feel entitled to have emergency service’s try and rescue them.]

    Oh well, perhaps I should have investigated more. It was obviously an ongoing joke, so Australian, about having a got a you, instead of revealing that you actually saved people at the time you ruined the truck.

    So, I am sorry for casting that aspersion on you.

    [Not to mention IVF being paid by taxpayers. But Rummel doesn’t give a shit about that either.

    He’s entitled.

    Wrong, I have never used IVF… ha!]

    Oh, so terribly sorry. I must have confused you with someone else.

    [But other folk who volunteer and know how to drive are not entitled. They’re called LOSERS in Rummel territory.

    You are a angry person and i feel sorry for you Kezz2.]

    No, rummell, I’m not an angry person, but I don’t trust, and never will, people who make a commitment and then don’t keep their promise.

    I feel sorry for you.

  50. Youse guys may not be aware as to how the farming game is played in large chunks of Oz by lots.

    I’m a farmer, well, formerly anyway. I was irrigating my property but thanks to the irrigation industry’s mismanagement of the river I lost my water source about 5-6 years ago and gave up.
    There are about 150,000 farmers in Oz according to ABS. Many are not on the land, its a term often, I dunno exactly what fraction I doubt if anyone does except those who don’t tell, used for tax purposes.

    Tax is a big deal in farming.
    Its a major source of farming income.
    Take a mate of mine who recently bought a brand spanking shiny new harvester complete with bells and whistles for around $400,000.
    Naturally he increased his debt to buy it – on the advice of his accountant. Probably a major reason to buy was to get the debt. Debt is good.
    Nearly all farmers are businesses and have accountants, I did and mine, like all of them , urged the maximisation of debt.
    So you can claim the costs of the debt as depreciation of the asset to the extent that after 4-5 years the asset has cost you nothing.
    And, often, again I dunno how often, against off-farm income, mainly shares and dividends but also can include second jobs eg wife or husband is a teacher [incidentally about 40% of farmers officially so designated are women], so the family business farm is run at a loss so as to pay no tax.
    Farmers don’t like paying tax.

    As for drought, well we just had 2 years of drought in this region, 180mm last year, but my mate still bought his new toy.

    OK all of that is pretty negative, simplistic and generalized.
    As is the reporting and even academia on farming in this country.

    I suppose my main point is – don’t believe what you read in the media about farming in this country – it ain’t necessarily so.

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