Seat of the week: Boothby

Another trip through a South Australian federal electorate to mark the looming state election – this time the southern coastal suburbs seat of Boothby, a nut Labor is never quite able to crack.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.

Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.

Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,687 comments on “Seat of the week: Boothby”

Comments Page 4 of 34
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  2. Fran –

    Hopefully, one’s cavity to make these fine distinctions improves over time.

    I think in your ongoing struggle with autocorrect that autocorrect appears to be winning.

  5. Pyne….

    There should be debate about issues like co-payments for doctor visits and the role of Medicare, but Mr Pyne repeated promises not be a “no surprises” administration.

    “If there are any changes that we didn’t warn the public about before the election then we will keep those for an opportunity down the track,” he said.
    ===============================================

    Contradicting the contradictions that contradicted the elections promises

  7. [Contradicting the contradictions that contradicted the elections promises]

    Which at any other time would be referred to as excuses.

  10. At least with a shift in discussion here from boats, some sanity can remain.

    All day yesterday same old same old.

    With Hockey talking ‘infrastructure’ there is the concept that the conservatives are at least thinking about how to turn Abbott’s preposterous promise of a squillion jobs into some kind of reality.

    However, when Labor was attacked by the LNP about not doing enough about infrastructure (because it was largely ignored in the days of Howard – apart from an expensive and underused railway in the desert), Labor responded by trotting out the length of time major projects take.

    It was mentioned that the construction of a new airport, even if started tomorrow, would not see a plane land/take off inside 10 years from the turning of the first sod.

    Unfortunately for we, the population, politicians tend to think in 3 year cycle, hence the distortion of the NNB now and in WA, cheap/quick projects in the bush thanks to Royalties for Regions pork barrel.

    Nonetheless, the destruction of jobs is where Labor should attack. PMJG kept on going on about jobs, but she was largely ignored. Unfortunately for her, with unemployment at 4-5% it did not seem an issue. All the conservatives could talk about then, as now, is debt.

  12. [How education and health money is spent will change in the May budget but the federal government insists it will keep a promise not to cut overall spending.

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne says the government won’t do anything it didn’t take to the people in 2013 without heading to another election first.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/21643757/govt-says-promises-will-come-within-budget/

    Well there it is in black and white.

  13. Jackol

    [Hopefully, one’s cavity {ability}to make these fine distinctions improves over time.]

    Ability …

    Jackol

    I am going to explore how to turn off autocorrect. On balance I’d prefer the typos.

    Thanks for pointing this out.

  14. Tricot

    The boats discussion is unfortunately pertinent. In light of the problems it has created with indonesia, as well as the appalling cirucmstances of manus Island this week. Also, there was criticism that Labor were not speaking out enough re the current situation. I merely pointed out that Labor obviously support offshore processing and anything they say is more about the mismanagement of the current arrangements by the coalition, and their secrecy. Rather than the offshore policy itself.

  15. Tricot –

    All the conservatives could talk about then, as now, is debt.

    The conservatives certainly went on about debt a lot in the last term.

    I expect that they will stop talking about debt real soon now.

    If infrastructure is Hockey’s only plan (and it certainly seems to be) apart from “axing the tax”, then the infrastructure program is going to have to be fairly big, and that’s going to mean a lot of infrastructure bonds – in other words, a lot of debt.

    Just as well Hockey got rid of the legislated debt ceiling.

    We’re going to see some big numbers for Federal government debt, and the LNP are going to be invoking a lot of unicorns to avoid talking about it.

    Now, as far as it goes, raising debt to fund quality infrastructure is exactly what we should be doing, and should have been doing for the last 3 or 4 years with low interest rates and the appetite for Australian government debt.

    I remain skeptical that this government understands what “quality infrastructure” actually is, but I guess we’ll see in May.

    And of course you’re right about lead times. If Hockey thinks that kicking off big infrastructure projects is going to dig him out of a hole created by slashing government expenditure, he’s in for a world of pain. And if consumers have been seriously spooked by the various job losses reported then we may be looking at a recession that this government has no clue about dealing with.

  18. zoomster
    Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 10:24 am | PERMALINK
    Whew. So pleased to find that that idiot who used his present height as an analogy for climate change IS from the US. He also has a grand total of 45 followers.

    Which is what I was on about yesterday, I now check the profile of the trolls attacking me and usually between 5 and 50 followers , often no followers ie auto robot trolls, I think they are called?

  19. GG

    [Broadbent and other allegedly moderate Liberals have never walked their talk. ]

    That’s a bit harsh. Some crossed the floor on the ETS.

  20. Jackol

    Funny we are talking about debt and infrastructure. I wonder if the Tories look back and wonder if the the Howard-Costello policy of giving the mining boom proceeds back to voters as bribes was such a good idea after all.
    It was a grand opportunity missed by a couple of pygmies with no vision. I doubt the current lot are any better.

  21. [FRANKSTON has beautiful beaches, an often undeserved reputation for roughness — and political power.]

    Speaking as a proud Frangers boy, let me say that its reputation for roughness is fully deserved.

  23. AA

    Bolt caned Brandis yesterday for breaching Labors Cabinet confidentiality. He’s generally not happy with the way the Libs are controlling information.

  24. My followers are on the ball this one took a screen shot of what Andrew Bolt said in case it “disappeared” 😀

    Mari R ‏@randlight 5m
    Told this is what Andrew Bolt said re MI
    My confidence in the information given to date by the Government on this riot is now extremely low.
    Reply Delete Favorite More Expand
    just JenRed ‏@JustJen64 3m
    @randlight He DID indeed say it .. pic.twitter.com/YVf2pKUGB3
    Hide photo Reply Retweeted Favorite More
    Embedded image permalink

  28. Psep … Didnt know you were a Franga boy…. As a local though I can say the roughness reputation may have been justified in the 70s but it is no longer justified. Shaw has his supporters but he will split the LNP vote at the next State election. Not yet convinced that the ALP have the right candidate.

  29. [ Tricot
    Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    With Hockey talking ‘infrastructure’ there is the concept that the conservatives are at least thinking about how to turn Abbott’s preposterous promise of a squillion jobs into some kind of reality.

    However, when Labor was attacked by the LNP about not doing enough about infrastructure (because it was largely ignored in the days of Howard – apart from an expensive and underused railway in the desert), Labor responded by trotting out the length of time major projects take. ]

    Sensible Infrastructure spending on needed and viable projects is good.

    However if hockey goes with Infrastructure Bonds and assuming taxpayers guarantee repayment of the bonds, it by definition requires huge additional borrowing – which hockey regularly decries, then borrows even more.

    The guarantee, again assuming it applies is a contingent liability but some of it will become a direct liability to taxpayers as some projects fail, maybe even more then the usual commercial rate.

    Failed Toll roads in Sydney in particular, but also elsewhere, have cost investors heaps of money over the years even when surrounding roads were blocked to force people to pay to use the toll road.

    Then greiner committed NSW taxpayers into bailing out the Sydney Airport rail extension as well.

    Much of the above was because of hockey stick cashflow projections which even fooled otherwise savvy private investors including a Hong Kong billionaire who took a huge haircut on the Lane Cove tunnel.

    Why would abbott or hockey be any better then Tycoon Li Ka-shing at assessing investment in such projects – or indeed hockeys own Treasury who he has so roundly criticised in the past.

    They better have a smart cookie doing the assessments. The other way will be to bleed users of the infrastructure and taxpayers dry to make it pay – while the builders skim off the cream.

    Transfield at the front of the queue yet again ?? Their man running the COA.

    Que Bono indeed.

  30. Apologies for bringing up the case of the young boy brutally murdered by his father last week on the sporting oval, but I came across oiece written by rightist David Penberthy who happens to be married to Kate Ellis Labor MP.
    He encapsulates my thinking on the reportage and attitude in the aftermath of this tragic situation

  32. I think this will be a vote-winner for the Libs in SA.

    [PRIVATE operators would be called on to take over the old Royal Adelaide Hospital and keep it running as a major medical facility if the Liberals win power next month.

    The Sunday Mail can reveal the Opposition’s plans for the massive city block, which is set to be vacated when the new RAH opens at the west end of North Tce in 2016.

    The Calvary Group, one of South Australia’s leading private health providers, has already flagged interest reusing part of the site as it reaches capacity at existing sites.]

  33. Victoria a little surprised you are peddling the urban myth about Frankston being bogan central …. Yes its working class, but proud of it and doesnt take kindly at all to the latte sippers knocking it.

  35. Rossmore@178

    Psep … Didnt know you were a Franga boy…. As a local though I can say the roughness reputation may have been justified in the 70s but it is no longer justified. Shaw has his supporters but he will split the LNP vote at the next State election. Not yet convinced that the ALP have the right candidate.

    It seems to me that Frankston has its share of fundy nutters, Shaw being one, and they will tend to vote for the Fibs but Shaw will probably get their first preference this time around.

  36. mari

    Yes, I checked – 45 followers. I decided to block him, particularly as he wasn’t at all interesting.

    His last tweet was calling someone else’s attention to me, so I take it I blocked him right on the shift change!

  37. Rossmore

    Lol! I am hardly a latte sipper. I grew up and live in the North east suburbs. I am very well acquainted with bogans. 🙂

  38. [http://standforqld.com.au/privatisation-cuts-essential-services-emerge-major-issues-redcliffe-election/]

    To exaggerate in order to make a point, I think Australia is caught between two incompatible mindsets, on one side we expect Government to be able to deliver world class health, education and public transport, more or less for free, many civilised capitalist based countries can do it so should we. On the other hand we want very low taxes and policies from the US that are, from a progressive point of view, diabolically bad.

    The real evil of the Abbott Government is that it is hoping to achieve the US style (poverty, growing inequality, widely accepted ‘truths’ that are obvious lies) and destroy the first, but without giving people the choice. If most Australians want to live in a US style economy that is our choice, but we aren’t given that choice.

  39. Diog

    actually, they argued that they weren’t crossing the floor, as officially the Liberal policy on the ETS hadn’t changed (there had been a leadership change, but no vote to determine policy).

  41. dave

    [Transfield at the front of the queue yet again ??]

    They’ve had a long held ambition to build and operate the ‘pot of gold’ second airport.

  42. [Labor is demanding Immigration Minister Scott Morrison give a full explanation about what he knew about a riot on Manus Island, after backtracking on claims a death occurred outside Australia’s detention centre.

    Mr Morrison now says the majority of the “riotous behaviour” that resulted in the death of an Iranian man and left 62 other asylum seekers injured happened inside the Papua New Guinea facility.]

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/morrison-must-explain-himself-labor-20140223-339wm.html

  43. Rossmore

    [Victoria a little surprised you are peddling the urban myth about Frankston being bogan central …. Yes its working class, but proud of it and doesnt take kindly at all to the latte sippers knocking it.]

    I am with you and how do we define a “bogan” anyhow – I hate the word.

  44. victoria@180

    Apologies for bringing up the case of the young boy brutally murdered by his father last week on the sporting oval, but I came across oiece written by rightist David Penberthy who happens to be married to Kate Ellis Labor MP.
    He encapsulates my thinking on the reportage and attitude in the aftermath of this tragic situation

    I think Penberthy misses an important point when he says:
    [Yep. Forget the little girl over the bridge or the little boy on the ground at cricket practice. Let’s all hold hands and think about the poor men who did it. Spare me.]
    If you are going to understand why these things happen, and have any chance of preventing them in the future, then you need to understand the perpetrators and what drives them.

    You don’t have to excuse the perpetrators or like them. And the circumstances vary.

    In Luke Batty’s case, it is acknowledged that the father was mentally ill and that was undoubtedly a major contributing factor. Worse still, he was not receiving any treatment.

    The best report on this particular sad incident was by John Silvester. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/alone-jobless-and-mentally-ill-a-dads-road-to-murder-20140214-32rlw.html

  46. [Not yet convinced that the ALP have the right candidate.]

    Labor has a history of terrible candidates in that area. Look up Rogan Ward and the 1982 Flinders by-election some time.

    Frankston is actually a very diverse area, some parts of it are quite affluent, on the Mt Eliza side. But the Seaford side is pretty hard-core low-income and has a very high youth unemployment rate. This has spawned all the usual social problems, most of which hang out around Frankston station.

  47. bemused

    I dont want to go over my views, but save to say i concur with Mr Penberthy. Excuses and feeling sorry for the perpetrator in this case was bloody sickening

  49. Psephos

    I have a friend in law enforcement, who deals with the seaford area etc. it is indeed as you say, and fhe problems that are encountered are mind boggling.

  50. Abbott posed the question “can you think of any other government program that has killed people?”

    Sydney Harbour Bridge 16 died

    Snowy River Hydro Scheme 121 died

    The man is totally ignorant. I wonder who was paid to get him his Rhodes Scholarship

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