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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.
Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.
Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.
[What does advice being private actually mean in this context?]
He won’t say who gave it to him.
kevjohnno
[Now I’m just deeply troubled by what we are doing to the asylum seekers but totally unsure what we should be doing.]
I think there are many who think like you do.
I loathe racists but understand that many people have racist tendencies.
Sadly this Government screaming about them all the time is just feeding the masses.
After all apart from the original Australians we all got here some way or another yet we are not happy for others to come.
Sad!
ru
Oh. So whoever gave the advice to make the documents available is the private part? Good frickin grief.
Wont be long before Abbott demands to be called “il duce”
[And turning back boats is not good either]
It is if you can get away with it.
He said he’d do it and he has.
It’s risky though.
Fran I hope you would be right with “It’s far harder to hate people you meet than people you hear are dangerous.” but sadly what normally happen is they are dumped in poor outer suburbs, effectively ghettoised. Most people never get to interact with them and only see them in groups at railway stations & shopping centres where the usual fears and prejudices kick in.
It’s just legal advice. It doesn’t matter who he got it from. If Labor disagrees, they can test the legal advice in court.
Diog
He has not got away with it. He had to blame the navy for six. Also had a killing at one of the camps.
This is why he is trying to do Cambodia. He is not doing Malaysia because that is too easy for Labor to say he is doing their policy.
Labor votes with the Libs to refer Thomson to committee to see if he has misled parliament.
[Both sides of parliament have agreed to refer the former Labor MP Craig Thomson to the privileges committee to investigate whether he misled the lower house when he protested his innocence over misuse of union funds.]
kev
How do they know they are refugees. A lot of Arabs get here through the front door. No change to numbers at shopping centres if there were no boats.
AbsoluteTlwaddle
[This idea that Labor can turn back the tide of popular opinion by changing their policy to mirror the Greens is just ludicrous in my view. Is it just that some on the left have difficulty recognising a lost battle when they see one?]
Certainly the ALP have painted themselves into a corner on this one. They’d need to do a thorough repudiation of at least the position from Tampa 2001. It would need to be a comprehensive working through of how they got it so badly wrong, followed by the development of a fundamentally principled position. There is time to do that between now and the next election, in part because few are paying attention, but also because the LNP is going to make policy without ALP support anyway.
Only once it has done that and taken its lumps, much as Faulkner did over Obeid, can it begin to restore its shattered integrity in this area.
FTR, there are some battles that it is impermissible to lose. One must fight until one wins or dies in the attempt. This is one such thing. The ALP should keep in mind that if ethical integrity isn’t a sufficient reason for doing this, then political immunity should be. While the LNP holds this card against it, the ALP will always appear like “wimps” to borrow from Abbott’s meme du jour. it might take some time but the ALP, assuming it wants to win regardless of boats, will need to get this monkey off its back.
guytaur
Abbott will get away with it unless Indonesia stops him.
Even if a boat he’s turned back sinks, he’ll just point to all the deaths under Labor and say he’s reduced the number.
[psephos continues his march from Maoist to Boltist]
It was agreed last night that I’m a Nazi, so let’s stick with that, shall we?
[Now I’m just deeply troubled by what we are doing to the asylum seekers but totally unsure what we should be doing.]
Mainly encouraging the Greens to bite harder on the compromise bullet.
We have plenty of incoming real world data to help us with that project.
[It was agreed last night that I’m a Nazi, so let’s stick with that, shall we?]
Wouldn’t it be neo-Nazi?
Is it raining in Port Elizabeth, by the way?
@tasmarshall: Departments are giving out pre-recorded audio grabs now? Inevitable, but wow. http://t.co/u2QbsdEV3F
[Wouldn’t it be neo-Nazi?]
No, the consensus was that I’m just a plain ol’ Nazi.
[Is it raining in Port Elizabeth, by the way?]
I certainly hope so. I hope it rains all day. I hope that, had the match gone into the 5th day, not a minute would’ve been played and it would’ve been a draw.
Bloomberg’s Countdown program has been discussing the G20 and one analysis dismissed the 2% target as a P.R stunt.
[Labor votes with the Libs to refer Thomson to committee to see if he has misled parliament.]
As they did in the last Parliament. This is nothing new, the privileges committee inquiry lapsed due to the election.
Should not go anywhere though. Pyne demanded Thomson make a statement for months, he eventually had to. It is a poor precedent where someone is forced to incriminate himself on the floor of the House. Or lie and face recriminations.
Star Chamber comes to mind.
Kev
Good summary of how people feel. However I think the public does expect the government to be competent:
1. While the public will be happy the boats have slowed they will be a little disturbed by the negative reaction from Indonesia
2. The Navy losing its way looks very, very silly even for those who support the policy
3. The life boats look a bit silly because the public will apply common sense and assume that they are on a one way trip and are high cost.
4. Stories about burned hands will not influence many but they add to the sense of public unease
5. Manus Island deaths will upset quite a few because it seems incompetent. The whole point of manus is was that the issue would go away and it hasn’t.
6.There will probably be another HC challenge because it is no longer possible to declare that people are safe in Manus Is. This adds to the sense that the government is no longer in control of the issue
7. Morrison’s idiocy in spouting out before he knew the Manus facts OR assuming could hush them up makes him seem not in control and the public hates this.
Seems to me that Morrison has 7 strikes against him. 3 more and he is history. Not because the public dislikes the policy but they hate it getting into the news.
“@latikambourke: Deputy OL Tanya Plibersek says Scott Morrison’s performance in Question Time today revealed a ‘minister under pressure.’”
Psephos
[No, the consensus was that I’m just a plain ol’ Nazi.]
You don’t look that old in your photo. You’d need to be at least 85 to be a Nazi.
I don’t think I’ve ever met a neo-Nazi, let alone a Nazi.
A zombie outbreak in NZ ? 🙂
[Dead man was ‘aggressive’]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/
@9newsmelb: Nation gathers to mourn Reza Berati, Scott Morrison accused of having blood on his hands. @lcalcutt reports #9NewsAt6 http://t.co/BMC9VzZgCC
Guytaur
I’m just extrapolating my understanding of the experiences of existing refugees accepted from places like Somalia, to Fran’s hope for “dismantling longterm mandatory detention and having the IMAs out in the community”. I was not restricting my comments to “Arabs”. My point was that they are not really out in the community if they are out of work and all living in the same poor neighbourhood. Wierdly the thought of foreign people sticking together for support upsets a lot of people as they hang out with their lifelong mates down at the club.
ru
[Pyne demanded Thomson make a statement for months, he eventually had to. It is a poor precedent where someone is forced to incriminate himself on the floor of the House. Or lie and face recriminations.]
He didn’t have to lie.
If you lie to Parliament, there are going to be some consequences. He’ll probably just have to make a grovelling apology.
“@latikambourke: Julie Bishop ‘I think Scott Morrison’s doing a fantastic job.’”
[I certainly hope so. I hope it rains all day. I hope that, had the match gone into the 5th day, not a minute would’ve been played and it would’ve been a draw.]
But that’s the point. Had we managed to bat until stumps, and had it rained this morning as forecast, we would have saved the draw. But we didn’t, so we didn’t. Rain this morning will reinforce how pathetic a failure it was – particularly given how well Rogers did.
The 2% is a stunt, it means nothing. Wow the Eurozone is going for 0.4% GDP growth, wowzers Joe.
[@9newsmelb: Nation gathers to mourn Reza Berati]
“Nation”? If there were 50,000 people in total at last night’s demos I’d be surprised.
Psephos can I just refer to you as the resident smurf? You look better in blue than black.
[You don’t look that old in your photo. You’d need to be at least 85 to be a Nazi.]
Well you’ll have to take it up with Bushfire Bill, Gaytuar and the pink galah guy. I’m not going to argue with them.
The current government may want to look tough. A fine would be quite possible unless they go for the more controversial option of a gaol term of up to 6 months.
Dio
No I think that boats has been too much in the news for Abbott to gain much.
Now you have JB rushing off to Cambodia ie doing exaclty the same panic bandaid measures as Gillard/Bowen.
Boats is a two edged sword, likely to start cutting Abbott up soon. I think Admiral Scotty has
Ru
That was part of what the analysis said, he also went onto question how it could achieve the target when China is slowing etc.
[If you lie to Parliament, there are going to be some consequences. ]
Rubbish, Bill Heffernan has made a career out of it.
Maybe Morrison will go before Nash.
Policy change if any will be slight from Abbott of course.
We still have that hint in the Daily Telegraph it might shut and maybe the Minister resigning will do it. Only after they get a yes from Cambodia.
Dio
No I think that boats has been too much in the news for Abbott to gain much.
Now you have JB rushing off to Cambodia ie doing exactly the same panic bandaid measures as Gillard/Bowen.
Boats is a two edged sword, likely to start cutting Abbott up soon. I think Admiral Scotty has limited time
hi fran – I thought I’d read windschuttle was a former maoist. what’s a grantite?
I had hoped the boats thing had had enough airing.
Seems not.
Labor has absolutely nowhere to go on this policy.
From the days when Labor set up machinery for detention, to Rudd setting up Manus, Labor has had the same broad policy objectives as the conservatives – that is, to establish a viable migrant/refugee intake while trying to establish the orderly management of those who come here under their own steam or without visas.
It is unfortunate that Labor could not juggle both compassion and firmness at the same time.
The LNP will be good at the firmness gig, and this is all the Oz electorate seems to care about, in general, at the moment.
The final straw for Labor was when a boat found its way all the distance to Geraldton from Sri Lanka (on its way to NZ so say) and not one bit of our sophisticated radar system picked it up.
It could well be that several deaths on Manus or a whole number of boats turning up will change things against the conservatives, but when people can actually get on talk-back radio and suggest without a blink – that someone should “shoot one or two of the bastards on the beach as a lesson to others” shows just how much compassion is out there from maybe a good third of the electorate – and they all ain’t LNP voters either.
Its great that the Greens can be the conscience for Oz, but they delude themselves if they believe they will influence matters.
There is just too much fear, loathing a racism to overcome for the sweet flower of compassion to survive.
Nothing to be proud of here as far as I am concerned. As we do live in a democracy and if the majority want the boats stopped – any which way – then the LNP are entitled to say that is exactly what they are doing.
Until the bombing of Pearl Harbour, the USA was not the great bastion and arsenal of democracy but a pathetic by-stander to what was going on in Europe.
Most Americans, at the time, were supportive of non-US involvement in the affairs of Europe.
The President of the day had to respect this as well.
[Boats is a two edged sword, likely to start cutting Abbott up soon. I think Admiral Scotty has
]
Shit happens when you are in a race to the bottom and you forget your snorkel.
Kevjohnno
[Fran I hope you would be right with “It’s far harder to hate people you meet than people you hear are dangerous.” but sadly what normally happen is they are dumped in poor outer suburbs, effectively ghettoised. Most people never get to interact with them and only see them in groups at railway stations & shopping centres where the usual fears and prejudices kick in.]
I live in a place dominated by people often called “south Asians”. There’s surprisingly little ethnic animus as far as I can tell. We have a park near the railway station where everyone — Europeans, East Asians, Filipinos, Africans, Melanesians and our friends from India and Sri Lanka all muck in. Quite a few of them are refugees who came on boats, or their children.
We queue together for the train, and in Woolies. People smile at each other. Even my bigoted neighbour has backed off talking about it and offered the idea that he’d be happy to swap them for our local dole bludgers. I escorted him down to the park one day and we ate food at a bench and I said to him — which of those folk don’t belong here? He looked about and shrugged his shoulders. Spotting some people I’d met on the train I said hello and beckoned them over and introduced him. My neighbour is older and a little on the lonely side and he was very chuffed to exchange stories with an older Sri Lankan Tamil man who had been brought out on a family re-union basis. He’d been a builder back in Jaffna and they got on very well. My neighbour forgot to mention his angst, for some reason.
[As they did in the last Parliament. This is nothing new, the privileges committee inquiry lapsed due to the election.]
Yes but since then he’s been convicted, so it has been judicially proved (pending appeals) that he did certain things. If he specifically denied in the House that he did those things, he’s guilty of lying to the House, and could be charged with contempt, even though he’s not an MP anymore. My memory of his speech, however, is that he was careful not to be too specific in what he denied. (And this is why.)
kevjohnno
A former workmate of Liverpool Irish origin despaired over his racist brother banging on about immigrants forming ghettoes. As he said “Feck me ! All but one house in our street were poms.” . When they first arrived there were three families in the same house. Another habit that only seems to be a problem if the Johnny foreigners are not Anglo-Saxon.
This gov is so focused on boats and economy, it forgot economy.
[The only way boats will ever be a vote winner for the ALP is if there are a series of major events but hopefully nothing like that occurs.]
Boats have been a winner for the ALP before.
When they stopped under Howard, everyone forgot about them.
Bye-bye wedge issue.
The present mob are suffering under the same delusion: that the punters will remember how they felt when the boats were coming thick and fast.
They won’t. They’ll forget about them and rightly concentrate on more bread & butter issues, like “What happened to my effing job?”
sortius @sortius 1m
Sickening: @Wyatt_MP using deaths at sea to cover up the blood on his own hands http://twitter.com/Wyatt_MP/status/437844160003842048 … #auspol
Our future PM at work, sad.
dtt
It’s definitely a two-edged sword but one edge of the sword is very blunt and hard to cut yourself on.
Most people are sick to death of hearing about boats and AS.
Psephos
Rogers did do well but why, having hardly scored for an hour, did he chance a single off the first ball of the second last over. Hardly farming the strike. I guess pressure does strange things to the mind.