Seat of the week: Boothby

Another trip through a South Australian federal electorate to mark the looming state election – this time the southern coastal suburbs seat of Boothby, a nut Labor is never quite able to crack.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.

Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.

Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,687 comments on “Seat of the week: Boothby”

Comments Page 25 of 34
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  1. [2007 was about two things

    Workchoices and Howard had passed his use by date.]

    Spot on. I’d say Climate Change played a part too, as Australia was in a terrible and long drought at the time and Howard was seen as having his head buried in the sand on the issue.

  2. mexican

    I am not claiming boats are a vote winner for Labor. Except maybe if Morrison is seen shooting an AS.

    What I am saying is its not the vote winner the LNP think it is. That is all.

  3. shellbell

    “First steps being taken in NSW to join Qld and others by restoring QC title”

    Is there any actual reason for this or just more reactionary monarchistic wankery?

  4. [But that doesn’t mean the Greens should drop it as it is one of their core issues.]

    Of course not, because the electoral strategy of the Greens is to assemble a Senate quota from disaffected Labor voters. Wheeling out Sarah Hanson-Young to blub about the poor boaties is an excellent way to do that. But Labor’s electoral strategy is to win 76 seats in the House of Reps, and pandering to the leftist inner-city elite is (to put it mildly) not the way to do that.

  5. guytaur

    “What I am saying is its not the vote winner the LNP think it is. That is all.”

    If anything the effect is understated.

  6. [shellbell

    “First steps being taken in NSW to join Qld and others by restoring QC title”

    Is there any actual reason for this or just more reactionary monarchistic wankery?]

    A bunch of old, white men who pine for the good ol’ days. Also, vindictive spite from the Right.

  7. CC was an emerging issue which Howard nullified somewhat by promising an ETS then strongly supported by the MP for Warringah.

  8. a-t
    [Is there any actual reason for this or just more reactionary monarchistic wankery?]
    Probly but everyone loves a “sir” or “dame” and OA and OAMs and SC don’t have the same ring about them. Bring ’em all back I say.

    Sir Mick Seventyseven

  9. AT

    Primarily so silks have same titles as their British and Asian counterparts against whom some compete in the international law circuit.

  12. Re QCs – why do Governments need to assign a fancy handle to senior barristers? Why doesn’t it do the same for senior / accomplished teachers, engineers or accountants (CQB – counter of the Queen’s beans). Why don’t we just scrap the title and let lawyers be recognised by their professional association.

  13. I’ll never understand the romantic affection those on the right have for the British monarchy.

    I put it in the same broad category as saggy, ball-gagged businessmen who pay to get whipped by a mistress. It’s just somehow distasteful.

  14. mexicanbeemer

    Howard even told the Liberals at their/a conference that not only should Australia act we should be prepared, if necessary, to lead the world.

  15. twaddle

    Wrong. They are in government now. They own the consequences of mistakes.

    The same bad polling will visit them for stuff ups. When the public accept they have stuffed up.

    I also did not say it was going to happen overnight.

    My point to William was just it was not as clear cut a media victory as Keane posted which is whee this started.

  17. No matter how harsh we are to asylum seekers, it won’t lose the Government any votes or Morriscum any sleep. Labor needs to change the subject – jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, Medicare, wages and conditions, education, NBN, jobs…

  18. a-t
    [ … saggy, ball-gagged businessmen who pay to get whipped by a mistress.]
    Now you’re talking. Do we call you Madame or Master? Ouch .. please again …

    However can’t see the connection between S&M and support for monarchy – it cuts across all ages and backgrounds and political leanings. And the monarchy has a lot going for it when you figure “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. It’s just a meaningless powerless figurehead and that’s the way it should stay imho.

  19. [Why don’t we just scrap the title and let lawyers be recognised by their professional association]

    That is how it operates nowadays unless you are an undeserving AG wanting the title

  21. The same bad polling will visit them for stuff ups. When the public accept they have stuffed up.

    I don’t think so, especially when they’ll be minimised ir buried by the mainstream media. The troubles on Manus Island weren’t mentioned in the first 5 pages of yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph. The only stuff up the Government would suffer for would be if, for example, boatloads started avoiding the Navy and arriving on our shores or PNG walked out on the agreement.

  22. A history lesson for some, the ALP introduced the mandatory detention of asylum seekers.

    Shorten, Marles et al are doing the correct thing, attack the Govt over process not policy. Gillard said the Government of the day should be allowed to make the laws it needs on boats, she was right.

    Let uncle doogie out to play every now and again, but don’t get wedged by Morrison.

  23. Steve

    I thought Labor did the right thing in QT. Jobs and equal time to Nash as Morrison.

    Showing priority and going after competence. Leave the real attacks to the Greens. Just support them if they want a Senate inquiry is about all Labor should do.

    I want Abbott out and think that is best for Labor unless it changes its AS policy entirely and I think we have more chance of seeing Tony Abbott on a Mardi Gras float so thas a strategy I think they should stick with.

  24. Mick77

    I didn’t say there was an actual connection between S&M and support for the monarchy. I just said they bring up a similar feeling of unease within me for whatever reason.

  26. Zoomster

    [I remember arguing in a staffroom filled with teachers that we should accept the Tampa people into Australia — not one of them agreed with me. The Principal said he appreciated my arguments, but his mind wasn’t for changing.]

    What a dreadful place that must have been to teach!

    I was teaching in Sydney’s deep south-west at the time. The teacher base was solidly ALP with a couple of older-style leftwingers — of which I was one. I was still six years from joining The Greens. When Beazley capitulated heads dropped everywhere, because they’d all been sure Beazley would win four weeks earlier. Now they knew he was gone.

    Not one of them apologised for Beazley’s capitulation, and a half-dozen declared they were finished voting ALP. All if those I spoke to were scandalised. Years later, I met three of my teacher colleagues at a large Greens gathering.

    Even I was surprised. Putting aside matters of principle, which makes speaking of the ALP easier, Beazley basically conceded the election and played for damage control. I’d wanted to hold my nose and vote against Howard. Yet once again, the ALP had contrived to ensure that people like me couldn’t support it.

  29. I wouldn’t be surprised if Abbott moved to reinstate Imperial Honours. There must be lots of ex-Coalition Ministers and generous Liberal donors who would love to be called ‘Sir’ and have it on their business cards. Sir John Howard and Dame Janette perhaps. And it would be controversial and highly divisive, diverting discussion from jobs, Medicare and so forth, and Abbott does division and diversion so well.

  30. Mick77

    [However can’t see the connection between S&M and support for monarchy ]
    Don’t be so sure. Not for nothing did the French come up with the term “The English disease” after noting how popular it was amongst the former English public school chaps.

  31. [I wouldn’t be surprised if Abbott moved to reinstate Imperial Honours. ]

    That would be a de facto opening up of the Republican Debate. Abbott won’t touch that with Pyne’s dick.

  33. “I feel the same anger and disgust as most other Australians when it comes to Craig Thomson,” the Opposition Leader told news.com.au today.
    “His crimes were a betrayal of his members, his union, and everything it stands for.
    “He and Michael Williamson are a disgrace to the union movement and deserve to pay the price for their actions.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/opposition-leader-bill-shorten-says-his-former-colleague-craig-thomson-is-a-disgrace/story-fncynjr2-1226836198647

  34. Jarrod “The real idiot” Bleijie caught out telling huge porkies.

    [A criminologist and former police detective says crime on Queensland’s Gold Coast has increased since the State Government’s anti-bikie laws were introduced.

    Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie has told ABC Local Radio there has been a significant reduction in armed robberies and serious assaults.

    However, Dr Terry Goldsworthy from Bond University says that is cherry-picking the statistics.

    “Comparing September through to January this year, and the laws were enacted back in September, there’s actually been a 12 per cent increase in crime,” he said.

    “You may have certain small crime categories decreasing, but the plain graph sitting in front of me here on the computer that anyone can look at, shows crime has increased.

    “It’s really about perceptions and the perception needs to be that the information we are getting is accurate.

    “If you look at the myPolice website from September to now, it clearly hasn’t reduced at all.”]

  36. @CliveFPalmer: No surprise to see @couriermail go soft on @theqldpremier despite terrible 16% swing to ALP in Redcliffe byelection @rupertmurdoch #auspol

  37. I can only comment on the views of people I mix with. I live in Redcliffe, work in the transport industry in Brisbane and have many freinds & family in North Qld so you can judge for yourselves if my cohort is typical.
    Most do not want asylum seekers to be let in. Most do not want them mistreated but many couldn’t care what happened to them as long as they disappear & others wish it would all just go away. Even those sympathetic to the plight of of these people do not think we should take them.
    These people are family, friends, co-workers and people I know from work & socialising. They are a mix of blue & white collar worker, young & old, Labor voters (including members) & conservatives. Overwhelmingly they endorse the boat turnbacks. I cannot see how Labor can turn this issue into a vote winner. I’m not sure if they should even try but they do need to come up with a better thought out, realistic & humane long term policy and promote it even if it does cost some votes.

    I have always supported on shore processing but admit that the increased numbers of arrivals & drowings led me to hope that a regional solution such as the proposed Malaysian solution might open a way forward. Now I’m just deeply troubled by what we are doing to the asylum seekers but totally unsure what we should be doing.

  38. Kevjohnno

    Your experiences align with mine, and i am in the suburbs of Melbourne. That many asylum seekers originate from the middle east, is the driving factor of this attitude. Sad but true

  39. Kevjohnno

    [Most do not want asylum seekers to be let in. Most do not want them mistreated but many couldn’t care what happened to them as long as they disappear & others wish it would all just go away. Even those sympathetic to the plight of of these people do not think we should take them.]

    How dreadful. Understandable given the decade and a half of badgering and hysteria, and the insecurity many feel about their jobs in a setting where manufacturing is in decline. If there’s a handy scapegoat, refugees are certainly it.

    There never was a way forward based on keeping out refugees. I’d argue that we were always going where we are while the ALP was following LNP policy. Hubby was genuinely surprised when the ALP decided to start rendering unaccompanied minors. He really believed that this was a bridge too far, even for the ALP.

    Yet the ALP could have diffused the issue by dismantling longterm mandatory detention and having the IMAs out in the community. It’s far harder to hate people you meet than people you hear are dangerous.

  41. [pandering to the leftist inner-city elite]

    psephos continues his march from Maoist to Boltist – what is it with Maoists – Pearson, Windshuttle – is the ‘trots’ thing that sends you that way, or simply the belief that individuals and compassion should be crushed?

    aren’t YOU an inner city elite pseph? when is the last time you were 40km from the CBD (overseas travel and weekends in dalyesford or on the coast don’t count)

    I live in regional victoria and there are many here and inmany other country towns appalled by boats policy – mainly because people in many country towns know refugees through their communities. Any town with food processing or fruit picking has recent refugees. our kids go to school with their kids, they play in the same sports teams. small towns are small towns are you get to know them and hear their stories. I know former bigots who hate australia’s treatment of refugees because they have come to know refugees. this has been australia’s history since the 1940s even even before – Sydney Myer and his brother were effectively refugees in the 1890s, as was John Monash’s parents in the 1850s, as were some of my German forebears here in the 1840s. The history of refugees is that they repay their debt to the nation many times over. Labor is too gutless to try to change the mind of bigots and could have used their time in government to run education campaigns to make australia’s THINK about this. NSW right focus groups and people like psephos thinking you have to follow and not lead are responsible for the rise of the far right in australia and the success of abbott. Inner city labor right power elites are far more responsible for labor’s plight and abbott’s rise than inner city (and rural) ‘leftists’.

  42. Seems Abbott has released Cabinet Documents to the RC despite what Brandis stated this morning.

    [Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 16m
    Dept of PM&C provided legal advice to Abbott about releasing Labor cabinet docs. He ordered they be released. Advice is private]

  44. Victoria

    Re the middle east origin, I think you are right. This does seem to to alienate most most of the people I know. Very sad but true.

  45. Surely people recognise that an attempt by Labor at this juncture to “educate” people about the boat people problem would be laughed off the stage?

    This idea that Labor can turn back the tide of popular opinion by changing their policy to mirror the Greens is just ludicrous in my view. Is it just that some on the left have difficulty recognising a lost battle when they see one?

  46. Fran Barlow

    [How dreadful. Understandable given the decade and a half of badgering and hysteria, ]
    More like 25 years. Arrivals of Cambodians and some Chinese in the late 1980’s caused much hysteria in W.A. With enough over east that things like mandatory detention etc started to come in.

  47. If Abbott can continue to drop the boat number down to minimal levels and get AS off the front page (shooting them isn’t good IMHO) he will get a motza of votes out of boats.

  48. SF

    [psephos continues his march from Maoist to Boltist – what is it with Maoists – Pearson, Windshuttle – is the ‘trots’ thing that sends you that way, or simply the belief that individuals and compassion should be crushed?]

    Not that it matters much but in my recollection, Windschuttle was never a Maoist. He was a Labor lefty, friendly with Bob Gould, and thus probably a Grantite.

  49. kevjohnno

    Only yesterday I overheard someone complain about a Hungry Jacks store not selling bacon because of them “arabs”

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