 |
| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.
Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.
Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.
[It was agreed last night that I’m a Nazi, so let’s stick with that, shall we?]
you’re no nazi. ‘boltist’ covers it – shit-stirring, ideologically but flexible/pragmatic if tribal support of The Party Line regardless of morals overrides previous ideological position.
The progressive left is progressively loosing the plot over boats. Watching all the crocodile tears over boats now while they sat mute during Labors term… All topped off by the lighting a cadle for the one who died they other day, while all silent on the 1100 who have died during Labors term.
Where is the memorial for 1100 who died under Labor? They erected one on the lake shores in Canberra for the three hundred or so under Howard’s term.
Just like friends of the ABC.. Went into hiding during Labors attacks on the ABC and now reserected now the libs are in. The doubles standards a huge, yet not surprising.
Psephos
[But that’s the point. Had we managed to bat until stumps, and had it rained this morning as forecast, we would have saved the draw. But we didn’t, so we didn’t. Rain this morning will reinforce how pathetic a failure it was – particularly given how well Rogers did.]
At 1/133 i went to bed, fancying Australia could get to stumps perhaps 2 or 3 down for 260 and give the result a shake on day five. Apparently not.
And as an aside, the comment about Morrison “having blood on his hands” is just about as thought out as suggestions from a rag-tag bunch of conservatives at the time, that Peter Garrett was somehow a “murderer” of the four who lost their lives with the batts.
Though, I am sure Abbott is happy to have his RC to try to pin the “You caused them to die” tag on Rudd/Garrett so I guess it is fair enough to use Banquo’s ghost pointing the bloody finger at Morrison is apt.
rummel
9 news is not exactly leftist. Neither is Andrew Bolt.
shellbell
[That is how it operates nowadays unless you are an undeserving AG wanting the title]
Brandyarse SC wanting to become Brandyarse QC …
[ ideologically but flexible/pragmatic if tribal support of The Party Line regardless of morals overrides previous ideological position.]
Sounds like the definition of a politician.
davidwh
Erm .Snorkels aren’t much use when you are on the bottom. Know what ya meant tho 🙂
[Rogers did do well but why, having hardly scored for an hour, did he chance a single off the first ball of the second last over]
Because he thought Styne would bowl the last over, if the umpires had indicated the quicks were off he would never have taken the run. Great finish – sad umpiring by all 3 of them.
SF
[hi fran – I thought I’d read windschuttle was a former maoist. what’s a grantite?]
A follower of Ted Grant’s Militant Tendency and its peers here.
Of course the errant Principal wouldn’t have been in awe of the bishop would he?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-24/child-sexual-abuse-royal-commission/5279548
Boats or no boats will not put bread on the table.
The Coalition have slowed them down too quickly. Boats will be a dead issue if this keeps up, before the end of the year.
It was like when Labor fobbed off the GFC. Everyone who DIDN’T go broke convinced themselves they stayed afloat through their own skills and devices. Only bludgers worked on School Halls progeams, I was once told by a builder, whose only got our job because he had no competition (everyone else WAS working on the BER).
Labor got no credit for savibg the Australian economy, only whingeing about non-existent debt and criticism for missing a few scoring shots, instead of praise for the triple century they racked up in order to keep Australia afloat.
Australian are the most miserable, unsatisfiable lot imaginable. If the boats really do dry up, expect them to go looking for something else to moan about.
CUE: Coalition governemnt announces it thinks pensions (money that’s paid to the oldies who voted for them) are too high.
These Coalition guys are cretins. They would kill their own golden goose for the feathers.
Tricot
I think the RC will go the same way as Aboriginal Deaths in Custody which found that the indigenous have a lower rate of suicide while prisoners than the non-indigenous. The problem is the number in prison.
There were deaths putting in insulation, but the rate was much the same per house as during normal business.
I hope they will concentrate on the industry and its standards.
The dreaded Neocons were chocka with former Trots , Maoists and assorted lefty’s. True believers don’t worry so much about what they believe so much as being able to be true believers.
[The progressive left is progressively loosing the plot over boats. Watching all the crocodile tears over boats now while they sat mute during Labors term… All topped off by the lighting a cadle for the one who died they other day, while all silent on the 1100 who have died during Labors term.]
what bullshit. the greens, getUp, Amnesty, church groups, ASRC, and many other progressive groups actively opposed labors drift to the right on this.
The term ‘crocodile tears’ exposes you as a person/prick who could not care less about the suffering of refugees. tell us, is it because of their race or religion that you don’t care or don’t want them coming to australia?
@rummel/1302
And yet you support that same party (the liberals), I am waiting for the next hypocrisy level.
Accuse Labor, but say the same thing happened under liberals, but still support the liberals.
Hypocrisy at it’s finest.
We have been shit at playing the swinging deliveries since the 2005 England tour.
Even India beat us in Perth in 2008 because they made the ball swing.
On current form the first class batsman warranting selection are Phil Hughes and Marcus North.
Rua
He had five more balls to face to get the single …
Is this website awfully slow or is it just me?
CommSec @CommSec 7m
The Shanghai Composite fell to a 2 week low on renewed concerns about potential curbs on property loans ^TP pic.twitter.com/NtQQDiwt6R
BK
Looks like probs your end.
[Watching all the crocodile tears over boats now while they sat mute during Labors term…]
They most certainly DID NOT. Try a different line of spin, you boring hack.
Well I don’t think Morrison is responsible for the unfortunate death of the refugee but he still should resign for multiple mistakes in his portfolio.
When it comes to double standards there is no doubt the conservatives do it better that Labor.
The LNP though is not good at irony while a compassionate conservative only exists in the dead corners of a conservative brain.
Evidence today: “We don’t want a wimp for an Immigration Minister”.
(Sub-text: “So one guy died? So what?)
According to the conservative credo, compassion has to be “earned and deserved” – a market commodity.
Dio – I think you are probably right. The RC is a political ploy, aimed at maximum air time for the conservative media, at a time, a few months hence, when some hard stuff has to be done by this current government.
The only Morrison is leaving Immigration is upwards, i.e. via a promotion. I’m sorry but, politically, he’s probably the guy in the strongest position in that ministry right now.
And Turnbull the douchbag…..
https://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm/status/437021016640864257
It’s abit rich to say “how much will FTTP cost” when we already know the answer to that AND he should know the answer to that as per the communications port-follow he presides in.
shellbell
You wee spot on with the swinging delivery.
In the last Nielsen Abbott led 61-39 in the over 55 age bracket. He was behind in almost all the others.
Does anyone really think he will touch the OAP? Not a chance. He will probably exempt the family yacht.
Shellbell
[On current form the first class batsman warranting selection are Phil Hughes and Marcus North.]
Hughes is rubbish at playing the swinging ball. On a flat fast deck with short square boundaries and guys bowling at 136 km/h he looks a genius.
The problem with the nomenclature “Senior Counsel” just does not have the ring to it that “Queen’s Counsel” does.
Conservatives giving themselves fancy titles is a little like South American dictators (and others) covering their chests with medals they did not earn.
I am surprised Queensland/the Feds do not want to bring back the knighthoods.
After all, “Sir Tony Abbott” just has such a ring to it that plain old Tony Abbott does not. As well, the ability of give out a gong of this kind is something that is beloved of the ruling classes in the UK.
http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/sea-shepherd-claims-night-ambush-by-japanese-whalers
“Sea Shepherd said two Japanese harpoon ships attacked their Bob Barker vessel on Sunday night, using steel cables in an attempt to jam its propellers and rudders from close range in violation of laws aimed at preventing collisions at sea.”
Any law experts here?
[The term ‘crocodile tears’ exposes you as a person/prick who could not care less about the suffering of refugees. tell us, is it because of their race or religion that you don’t care or don’t want them coming to australia?]
Typical left, straight to race.
In fact I called for a doubling of our refuge intake before labor did it. I support brining in real refuges ,not economic refugees who pay to fly half way around the world, then pay people smugglers thousands of dollars, then dump there mobile phones and docs on the boat over.
The fact that you support they economic queue jumpers over poor staving refuges sitting in camps is laughable. Stoping them from killing them self on the trip over is the right way to go, the other way is 1100 deaths at sea and thousand of people in camps and lets not mention the kids locked up which the left gave Howard grief over.
@rummel/1333
How much has both Coalition Party and Labor spent on trying to defeat the “illegals” ?
In terms of money and GDP?
Wyatt Roy popped his head on ABC Coast FM this morning advocating a rise in the pension age to 70, plus he denied he would get any pension for being a politician.
Rummel
You accusing Andrew Bolt of crocodile tears and being a leftift.
Bolt has been attacking Morrison too
So that line of spin does not hold up.
poroti
You were right. I shout down the web page and statred again. All OK now.
Shorten calls it
@abcnews: Bill Shorten says the privileges committee inquiry into whether Craig Thomson misled Parliament is a ‘pathetic stunt’ http://t.co/V04rSXDAHs
Can anyone tell me how to delete one of my contacts in gmail please?
Constitutional & Legal fun in places today.
Brandis avoiding the Cabinet Documents/summonses questions this morning as hard as he could when AGD was on.
Only to have the bumbling Joe Ludwig clean him up late in the afternoon when AGS was on.
1335
He was first elected in 2010 and those first elected from 2004 onwards get defined contribution superannuation (it was originally a 9% like the rest of the population but then increased to 15.4% like public servants) rather than a parliamentary pension. Latham`s parliamentary superannuation reforms at work.
[In the last Nielsen Abbott led 61-39 in the over 55 age bracket. He was behind in almost all the others.]
it’d be interesting to see the breakdown of 55-65, 65-75, etc. My guess is many of the boomers in the 55-65 age group would be against abbott/LNP and this demographic shift will result in the over 55 vote going against LNP over time. are abbott’s cuts to education about producing a new generation of young fogeys to replace those dying off?
[“Sea Shepherd said two Japanese harpoon ships attacked their Bob Barker vessel on Sunday night, using steel cables in an attempt to jam its propellers and rudders from close range in violation of laws aimed at preventing collisions at sea.”
Any law experts here?]
Sea Shepherd tend to report their actions as those being done by them to the whaling ships. If they didn’t exaggerate so much, people may believe them.
[is it because of their race or religion that you don’t care or don’t want them coming to australia?]
The pretense that this is all about race is one of main pillars of the self-righteousness of the Greens/Left on this issue. There is of course a small racist fringe in Australia which opposes all non-white immigration, but very few Australians now have any problem at all with living in multi-racial society. As I pointed out to some idiot here last night, we take 190,000 migrants a year, and the two biggest source countries are now China and India. No-one cares a straw about this. As for religion, there is some disquiet about Muslim immigration (thanks Sheikh Hilally etc), but even that is a minority view. It is simply not possible to explain away the fact that a large majority of the population oppose allowing people to come here by boat by saying that they’re all racists. It’s just not true. But I quite understand why the Green/Lefts cling so hard to this comforting myth, which reinforces their own sense of moral superiority so comfortingly.
[“Telling the truth in Parliament is an extremely important aspect of the role we play as members of parliament,” Mr Pyne said.]
😆
Psephos
[The pretense that this is all about race is one of main pillars of the self-righteousness of the Greens/Left on this issue.
We should certianly hope that it isn’t because there’s no hope of ever demonstrating an acceptable alternative if it is.
Oops @ 1346
First sentence, Psephos. Last sentence mine.
MTBW
I think you select the contact in your contacts list then go to “more” above the contact you have selected & choose delete.
[@abcnews: Bill Shorten says the privileges committee inquiry into whether Craig Thomson misled Parliament is a ‘pathetic stunt’]
I wonder if he feels the same way about the action against Scott Driscoll who was landed with a $90k fine?
@Psephos/1344
That idiot and continues to be you.
Not me.
Migrants are not the same as refugees/AS or “Illegals” as they call them here on PB..
The 190,000 you refer to are skilled migrants (well the 128 thousand off them roughly).