BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  1. The ABC News story on Hockey’s “leadership” of the G20 was positively nausea inducing.

    Apparently Hockey is pushing the G20 to set an upgraded target for world growth.

    Not a sausage about how this was to be achieved, just a higher target.

    The ABC numpty reporter said if the final communique had reference to a target that would be a sign of a win for Hockey.

    What a load of bollocks. As far as it goes, every one of the G20 leaders is firmly on the “growth is good” bandwagon, and the concept that any of them aren’t already trying to tune their economies for maximum growth is just ridiculous. Perhaps there is some magic synchronicity that the G20 countries can do together that will result in higher growth, but I sincerely doubt that Hockey would have a clue what any such magic answer was, or that it’s anything trivially easy and obvious that everyone isn’t already doing.

    But yeah, let’s set a target in a communique, that’ll help.

  5. The current economic policies of the western world and an upgraded growth target are two mutually incompatible things.

    Good luck with that Hockey.

  6. OC

    [ While a revision of the schedule relative values is long overdue such a move is cosmetic compared to the real reform of changing to a time based model of doctor recompense similar to the NHS. ]

    Wherever we look on whatever the issue the vested interest will and do scream.

    All the while, many, most of the issues are capable of being dealt with and overcome, except for the poisonous political climate – and many voters who vote against their own economic interests.

  7. Meanwhile at the tedcliffe thread

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 20s
    #Redcliffe Primary Votes after 11 booths: LNP 35.1 (-14.3) ALP 43.7 (+13.0) Thomas IND 10.1 (+10.1) GRN 4.2 (-2.1) #qldpol #auspol

  11. Not sure what it is like in SA but in NSW ophthalmology had the reputation of being the most closed of all the closed shops except Dermatology. Fortunately there have been some opening up in surgery in the last 10 years.

  12. [Jackol
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

    Apparently Hockey is pushing the G20 to set an upgraded target for world growth.

    Not a sausage about how this was to be achieved, just a higher target.

    The ABC numpty reporter said if the final communique had reference to a target that would be a sign of a win for Hockey.

    …… but I sincerely doubt that Hockey would have a clue what any such magic answer was, or that it’s anything trivially easy and obvious that everyone isn’t already doing.

    But yeah, let’s set a target in a communique, that’ll help. ]

    Comedy gold yet again from hockey who forced Treasury to downgrade and set the lowest, ultimate worse case estimates for the Australian economy over the forward estimates so that he could be a ‘hero’ when he “beat Treasury so called expectations”.

    But there will be those who lap it all up as you say.

    Most responsible economists will tell you how the increased targets will be met – its called the business and the economic cycle.

    Hockey wants to say government doesn’t work on one hand, but that it does work when he is the grand poo bah, on the other.

    Meh! And people accept such nonsense at face value?

  16. dtt

    [You made the factually incorrect statement that all that was needed was for our legislation to remove reference to the UNHCR.]

    Not quite what I said, but you’re getting close.

    The Act requires that countries we send people to have signed up to the Convention. Remove that, and there’s no problem with Malaysia (legally speaking).

    [I pointed out that that was NOT correct because it was NOT the UNHCR that mattered, but rather Malaysia’s commitment to protecting refugees.]

    I am not responsible for your inability to understand that the test of Malaysia’s commitment, under the Act, which they didn’t meet, was whether or not they’d signed the Convention.

    As I keep repeating, the High Court ruled on the current legislation. The legislation can be changed to say anything the government of the day wants it to say (or repealed altogether).

    If the legislation was redrafted to read “Refugees may be sent to countries providing the administrator concerned stands on one leg whilst signing the document” the High Court would have absolutely no problems with that.

    [Despite my pointing it out to you many times, the agreement “signed” by Malaysia SPECIFICALLY stated it was NOT BINDING. ]

    Well, at least we’ve got to ‘signed’ in quotation marks. A few posts ago, the agreement didn’t exist, according to you.

    [Now frankly Zoomster such an agreement is a waste of time and it was a bloody embarrassment to all concerned]

    The UNHCR didn’t think so, and they’re the arbiters in these matters. They weren’t over the moon with the agreement, but they didn’t think it was a waste of time. They took it totally seriously.

    Frankly, given the choice of your (unsubstantiated) claim that the agreement wasn’t worth anything, and the UNHCR’s statement, I’ll go with the UNHCR every time. But hey, what would they know about refugees?

    You’re the one who raised MOUs, apparently as a minimum standard. I’ve been a signatory to a few, and they’re not legally binding either. If you would be satisfied with an MOU, then you should be happy with the much stronger agreement signed with Malaysia.

  17. dave @2212

    If the Australian economy does meet the increased targets, then it will be nothing short of miraculous given the damage the LNP are hellbent on doing.

    I also agree entirely with your statement on Hockeys’ libertarian bent. A party of people who believe that they themselves are the problem seems incredibly self-defeating to me.

    ‘See, government DOESNT work! We may have tried our absolute hardest to sabotage it to prove this point, but that means nothing! Government wouldn’t have worked anyway!’

  18. Bort@2208

    If Labor weren’t silent (and by extension complicit) in the Coalitions rampage then they might be getting some support.

    So the voters use the baseball bats on themselves or their own economic interests in response?

    Clever stuff.

    The tories only ever look after themselves as we are all seeing with abbott.

    Day in day out.

    Hopefully its some comfort for those who faciltated the loss of their own jobs, NBN, DSP, Medicare etc etc.

    Meh, yet again.

  21. Jimmyhaz@2217

    dave @2212

    If the Australian economy does meet the increased targets, then it will be nothing short of miraculous given the damage the LNP are hellbent on doing.

    The likes of ‘the kouk’ and gittens say basically the government need to just let the economy complete the business cycle and deficit and debt will come under control.

    Sensible reform can also be pursued of course.

    But they want a shootout at the OK Corral.

  22. OK you two doctors

    I had a detached retina a few years ago a very tiny cataract advanced quickly which is normal I was told. Yes anyway had the cataract operation

    BTW I was very lucky flown to Sydney was operated on by supposedly the best ophthalmologist around (I believe it) at 6pm with sight down to 30%, and probably blind in that eye by next morning. Now still no glasses needed.

  24. Jackol

    [Not a sausage about how this was to be achieved, just a higher target.]
    Or little things like some obscure places like Germany have said it is a rubbish idea.

  25. “In a daring and visionary statement, Joe Hockey said that eating fruit every day was good for one’s health and that kittens are cute and fluffy.

    “I challenge other members of the G20 to agree with me,” he said.”

  26. poroti

    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Jackol

    Not a sausage about how this was to be achieved, just a higher target.

    Or little things like some obscure places like Germany have said it is a rubbish idea.
    ==========================================

    Those obscure countries, do they ever shut up?

  28. zoomster@2225

    “In a daring and visionary statement, Joe Hockey said that eating fruit every day was good for one’s health and that kittens are cute and fluffy.

    “I challenge other members of the G20 to agree with me,” he said.”

    🙂

    Janet Yellen looked embarrassed to be with hockey on the video .

  30. Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 9:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari
    The one in Coffs, the one in Kempsey or another?

    Sent by I think the best one in Coffs down to the one in Sydney for the actual operation. I don’t think they could do the operation at Coffs

  32. [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51 7m
    Scott Morrison on Manus fatality: New info “casts further doubt on the initial advice that his injuries were sustained outside the centre”]

    Nice way to dump garbage on a Saturday night. Everyone has been saying this for days Scott.

  36. Forget the damn boats.

    Hammer the employment/unemployment theme.

    Labor is complicit in relation to stopping the boats with the conservatives being more ruthless – and already have blood on their hands by taking the Manus Island policy on as their own.

    It is a no-win for Labor and for the past hours it seems our local Colonel Blimp has been making hay shoving right up those who want to revisit AS.

    Let’s talk about the death of jobs in Oz and just what means the LNP is taking us to some Conservative Nirvana – not.

  40. tricot

    I started off just by saying boats are not a vote winner for the LNP.

    I think Labor should abandon Manus. Promise a regional agreement and have on shore processing.

    Then Labor can attack as they should.

    However I do agree for the reasons I said above about not winning votes Labor is better off using Medicare and Jobs as much higher up the list on what matters.

  44. Diogenes 2234

    Yes I am well aware of the re detached retina in 4 hours my vision had detoriated from 60% to 30%

    The query on the cataract was I had a small one before(which I think is common) and was warned with that the detached retina would accelerate it, which is waht happened.

  45. Diogenes 2234

    Yes I am well aware of the re detached retina in 4 hours my vision had detoriated from 60% to 30%

    The query on the cataract was I had a small one before(which I think is common) and was warned with that the detached retina would accelerate it, which is waht happened.

  46. Diogenes 2234

    Yes I am well aware of the re detached retina in 4 hours my vision had detoriated from 60% to 30%

    The query on the cataract was I had a small one before(which I think is common) and was warned with that the detached retina would accelerate it, which is waht happened.

  47. Diogenes 2234

    Yes I am well aware of the re detached retina in 4 hours my vision had detoriated from 60% to 30%

    The query on the cataract was I had a small one before(which I think is common) and was warned with that the detached retina would accelerate it, which is waht happened.

  48. deblonay

    I find it extremely difficult to feel sorry for Putin and the far-right regime he heads in Russia. If ‘neocons’ want to join the rest of the world in condemning him, good!

    As for protecting the Assad regime against any threat, call me ambivalent. The same goes for supporting in any way the coalition of reactionary Islamist theocrats seeking to depose him.

    If Australia just sits this one out then great.

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