New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.
ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.
DN
[If you don’t like the options presented to you by other people and you know what options you do want – evidenced by lengthy expositions on internet forums, say – then the appropriate course of action is to make the effort to construct and advocate for those options yourself.]
At the Federal level this isn’t possible because it is an express condition of all formal votes that one directs preferences to all other candidates, including those favouring policies diametrically opposed to those that motivated you to stand. That is an untenable conflict of interest in all cases where it is unlikely that you will win, and even in that case, it’s in the grey area, IMO.
WeWantPaul
For a start the Government saves on Labour costs as the staff are employed by the school rather than the education department or state school.
Government saves on property, plant & equipment, it also doesn’t benefit from the value of those assets.
Governments save on electricity and water costs.
This is a straw man argument.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApCPpFNiiLY
PM targets Tasmania’s most bitterly contested forest in its attempt to roll back World Heritage protection, for logging.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/government-targets-tassies-world-heritage-flashpoint-20140201-31tp9.html
People should look at the billions private schools have in investments etc.
Zoomster,
[He gets a reasonably constant stream of letters from his old school, asking why he doesn’t send his kids there. His answer – equally good education, much cheaper.]
My mum went to the local Catholic school to year 11 and doesn’t get letters from them questioning why we were sent to the state school about a km away (dad went to a tech school until he was 14).
I’ve been told that the reason I was sent where I was was because my parents did a budget and if we went to a private school, there’d be no extra-curricular activities. It’s certainly a choice I’m glad they made in those terms.
and an add-on to 1993 would be that smaller schools can change greatly under different direction. We lived equal distance from two Primary Schools, but one was apparently feral at the time, where as the students were courteous at the other, whereas now there are different Principals at each (the established Principal at mine retiring soon after I finished there and a permanent one fixing things at the other) and their roles have been reversed. Small things that greatly affect the culture, student intake and income of a school.
DN
Firstly, I agree with William. What you were claiming Diogenes was doing, would, if a fair summary, be misdirection rather than a strawman argument, IMO. To be a strawman, it must be close in content to the original proposition. Strawman can appear in a number of forms: analogy, slippery slope, reductio ad absurdum, petitio principii and so forth.
On my substantive point though, the argument that one should change he system by joining it contains an evident paradox, especially if joining the system precludes the kind of change one wants. It’s not strictly fallacious because there clearly are examples in which joining a system entails no fundamental ethical breaches and does not constrain even diacontinuous change in practice but each of these considerations needs to be evaluated before one can conclude that such action is ethically warranted.
It’s my view that as things stand, no worthy purpose could be served by my candidature. That said, like Zoomster, I believe that if I could stand and win without being compromised by ethical conflicts of interest, I could contribute even more that was worthy than I do at present as a teacher.
Yet the question is moot because I could not win without being impossibly compromised, and so I must content myself with he contributions I can make to my community through my professional practice and elsewhere, through advocacy.
Bugler
It’s amazing how much difference a good or bad principal can make.
So, with Earth gaining heat all the time, Australia is going to dredge millions of cubic metres of all sorts of stuff and drop it in the Great Barrier Reef which is already struggling with coral bleaching, acidification and nutrification.
All to build the world’s biggest coal port.
Have I missed the point here?
AC
[This is a straw man argument.]
Ugh.
Look, it’s obviously not clear.
Statement 1, Fred, Original Proposition.
Statement 2, Alan, Refutation of (1)
Statement 3, Fred, Denial of (2)
Statement (2) is reinterpreted to allow (3). That’s the strawman. The mechanism by which (2) is reinterpreted is a reinterpretation of (1).
Boerwar
This is a piece from late last year that should be of some interest
[The board of the agency charged with protecting the Great Barrier Reef has failed to adopt its own experts’ recommendation that it ban port developments which threaten the reef.
Two of the five board members have links to members of the Obeid family and are coming under scrutiny from environmentalists, who allege a conflict of interest because of their links to resource companies.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-29/reef-board-members-in-conflict-of-interest-claims/5052558
Fran
[To be a strawman, it must be close in content to the original proposition]
Then, in Dio’s own words “a quibble”. It’s close, or Dio would not be asserting a quibble.
victoria
Ah… the Obeid Family.
Boerwar
What can i say……….
[PM targets Tasmania’s most bitterly contested forest in its attempt to roll back World Heritage protection, for logging.]
I read about this yesterday. But of course, there is no difference between Labor and the Liberals.
@Victoria/2011
Doesn’t that mean Abbott is getting his dirty hands in the Obeid stuff? Due to Approval of the Great Barrier Reef dump?
zoidlord
It means that vested interests are getting it all their own way
The wealthy pay ta…a lot less than the low income as a percentage of earnings.
Just at how they benefit from the Govt on superannuation.
Low income workers pay more tax on their superannuation than their weekly wage
While the wealthy pay less tax on their superannuation than their income.
So taxpayers not only subsidise their schools we subsidise their superannuation
As i understand it the Bowen port is outside the Great Barrier Reef Marine park.
The port is important for the north Queensland mining industry but surely the waste could be disposed of further out to sea thus far not impacting on the reef.
Dio,
The one complaint I really have with my old school (academically they were quite supportive, they had a program (now closed by the state Government, I believe) that allowed a class of students to do three years HS over two to keep students engaged, which I was in) was the music faculty. It was ignored under the old principal who left just as I came in, and he apparently didn’t even see the school productions or concerts, and was deeply unpopular with the music staff and students, despite his ability to make things happen in other areas. So when I came I dealt with the end results of his jihad against the creative arts because they weren’t sports. Over time there its been built up again with support of the new principal.
Generally, however, my school was far too big to fail, with some year levels having 450+ students and taking in a feeder area covering maybe a third of the Shire and attracting students not zoned for it from even further afield. I imagine if a principal screwed up their heads would be on the chopping block pretty quickly.
AA
Really, when i was on $60k i paid way more tax than i paid when on $30k, i image if i was on $100k i would pay more tax than on either $30k or $60k
Super should mostly be untaxed particularly the 9% part, there could be a case made for taxing additional contributions.
The 9% contribution should be increased.
I don’t begrudge people being wealthy. Good on them.
My angst with them comes from things like;
Some might me old enough to remember a bloke named Alan Bond. Did well for himself, ending owning among other things a brewery and a property in England that included a village. Multi-million dollar house in the swank Peppermint Grove in Perth.
His daughter was collecting Austudy – I find that offensive
Ch 10 has had good coverage of Shark Cull protests.
Abbott better take note as its only a dress rehearsal for the ones that are going to occur for the Great Barrier Reef.
Bugler
450 in the same year. It must have been huge. My secondary school was big and it only had 150 per year n
DN
to be fair to Diogenes, your IKIABWAY routine probably predisposed his objection.
AA
There is a strong case to be made for means testing government programs to ensure they are benefiting those that the program is intended for.
Alan Bond was a rough who was lucky not too have served time in jail.
Fran
[IKIABWAY]
Looks like a jumble of letters to me. I’d appreciate it if you spell it out.
I know I am but what are you? I guess
zoidlord @ 1925: You note a report from The Age that ““A joke about Queensland Premier Campbell Newman was cut from satirical play Australia Day after complaints from an audience member, allegedly linked to the Liberal National Party, following a Brisbane preview.”
It struck me that the “joke” as reported in the link was, to quote Malcolm Muggeridge, “more mayoral than Voltairean”; so it might have been cut for not being very funny or original. But if there was political interference, surely a complaint to the “Freedom Commissioner” would be in order (not least to see whether he is willing to recuse himself on the basis of his past political affiliations).
DN
“I know I am but what are you? ”
Used in a broader sense here to describe challenges typical in the school playground based on simply accusing the rival of the thing the rival accuses you of, or variants.
Fran, his accusing me of strawmen and then pulling his own predisposed me to react the way I did. Gawd, now we both sound like Mod Lib.
I thought that was “I know you are but what am I”?
AA
Bonds English village is now owned by a Saudi prince who flies his private Airbus in.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
AA
=============
I’m talking about the wealthy…Gina – how much she pay? Packer, Twiggy an Clive??? etc
@abcnews: Adelaide Fringe Festival won’t cancel show Come Heckle Christ despite complaints it is anti-Christian http://t.co/0WmczJACzL
[ So taxpayers not only subsidise their schools we subsidise their superannuation ]
Plus their health insurance.
Plus their family trusts
Plus their negative gearing
Plus their concession treatment of capital gains
Plus their overseas tax havens
Plus their FBT in some cases
Plus their Gold Plated PPL scheme
Probably quite a few more.
This is fun from David Feeney …
[@Feeney4Batman: As always, Senator Don Farrell of SA handles himself with grace and dignity, and puts the interests of our Party first. He deserved better.]
DN
[Fran, his accusing me of strawmen and then pulling his own predisposed me to react the way I did. Gawd, now we both sound like Mod Lib.]
From which you conclude what about how you got there?
Dio,
It varies from year to year. Never cared to ask why. Mine was ¬350 students, my older sisters was 450, though it diminishes towards year 12. It’s because of it’s size it could get funds. I won’t say too much as the people involved are well and truly still around and people like Zoomster can probably tell precisely which school it is and probably the old principal, too. Anyway, enough of my opinions on education and music faculties, I think I’ll go water the dogs, as greyhounds they feel the heat a bit more than normal :/
As someone who fully supports the idea of a Mining Tax and whilst i am often unimpressed particularly in Gina, they do as a group employ a large number of people
guytaur@2023
He seems to be setting out to provoke protest and unrest.
various elections in play and the COA report, first budget all on the horizon and still he pours petrol on it all.
Bugler, your school must have been huge … Approaching 3000 if it was K12.
A year group of 180 is considered very large in Sydney. 150 is common in two deputy schools, but 450. Gosh!!! How many year advisers did you have? At east four surely, possibly five, surely?
[they do as a group employ a large number of people]
IIRC, the mining industry has one of the lowest levels of employment, relative to the size of the industry.
Fran
Ok, let’s for the sake of argument say that my 1928 is a strawman. Then I pulled IKIABWAY at 1931 and Dio reacted accordingly. Fine.
The rest of the argument about strawmen, quite frankly, was caused by people (not just Dio) unable to cope with a single level of indirection but who were determined to show up a smart ass.
I apologise for being a smart ass in the first instance.
Oops too many surelies.
No wonder the year group was so big! 😉
Don@1988
A proposition which is safe as it has never been tested and never likely to be.
You may have missed my point.
The argument really, is that people chose to pay for private education – so be it – but claiming because they do and that it saves money for the state and on top of that they want a refund for what they do is a largely self-indulgent position.
I pay for private medical and I am glad there is Medicare.
I do not claim my private health is ‘saving’ the government money, I do not want compensation for what I do pay and I don’t expect a tax break either – though I do get it.
Seems to me the same should apply to choice of private school.
Be prepared to pay twice if necessary.
Just Me
Yes i am aware of that and i wasn’t suggesting otherwise, the mining sector is only a small employer overall but in some places they are practically the only employer.
[ @Feeney4Batman: As always, Senator Don Farrell of SA handles himself with grace and dignity, and puts the interests of our Party first. He deserved better.]
Fran, birds of a feather flock together?
How do they keep a straight face when saying this stuff? One advantage of tweeting I suppose!
I really shouldn’t jump in a second argument when I have a first going and I should have just said “perhaps it’s a strawman, but I’d like you to tell me how so”. Which is what I really wanted to know :P.
I thought Retail was one of the largest employment of people?