BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,468 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. [That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election.]

    Sounds right.

  2. Is it just me, or does BludgerTrack showing a 1.0% swing to the Coalition in the Territories, and also showing Labor picking up a seat in the Territories, seem a touch incongruous.
    William, is BludgerTrack showing a swing to Labor in the NT (and a corresponding, rather perverse swing to the Liberals in the ACT)?

  3. Looks like Abbott is about to give Murdoch the Australia network. That’s really going to help our relationships in the region. I cannot wait to see the Bolt effect on foreign affairs….

    Every day this government gets worse.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Abbott should be asked what he believes the likes of 2GB and The Australian should be doing.
    Michael Gordon sticks up for the ABC.
    And Katherine Murphy also comes in on it. She talks about Abbott using “feelpinions”.
    At last it’s getting close to a result of sorts. Tomorrow by the look of it.
    Media relations, Republican style.
    Hockey vs Chainsaw today. Could be fireworks.
    Fancy that!
    Gareth Hutchens uncovers Pyne’s and Abbott’s education agenda.
    Andrew Dyson’s contribution on Abbott’s anti-ABC rant.

    Pat Campbell also has a serve.
    David Rowe on the same subject – ‘STOP THE BRUTES!”

  5. liyana

    [Every day this government gets worse.]

    Robert Randolf Garran must be wondering why he omitted the clause in the Constitution that said if the Govt are complete turkeys …

  6. From the previous thread:


    Fulvio Sammut@2119

    I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.

    Any way we could arrange for the crocs and sharks to fight it out?

    Reminds me of a cruise in the barrier reef, where we were going to drop in over a reef and do some snorkeling.

    The captain came on the PA and said:

    “Now I’ve had some concerns expressed to me about sharks when you are out on the reef. I don’t want you to worry about sharks, there are no sharks.

    The crocodiles ate all the sharks!”

  7. I know. If you just hit the comments balloon, and start typing, it often happens. I hate it.

    It looks fine on the cccp preview page.

    I’ll just have to make it a rule go through and take out italics commands altogether. Maybe if I added some extra /i commands at the end of the paste it might tell it to stop.

  8. And from the Land of the Free –

    A good run down on the Repug reactions to Obama’s State of the Nation speech.
    Rachael Maddow is having a battle royal with the Koch brothers.
    A good article about Elizabeth Warren, a lady to watch out for.
    Here are the things that Obama said that was right in the face of the Repugs.
    Jon Stewart on the SOTU address and its reporting.

  9. [I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.]

    Live on National television, of course.

    Think of the ratings – World Wide Wrestling would have nothing on it.

    I’d particularly like to watch Cory Bernardi, armed with nothing but the St James version, put his faith to the test (after all, if it worked for Shadrach, thingamibob and Abednego…)

  10. sprocket

    Seriously what bullshit by textor and the rest of the right wing nuttery. The ABC were feral against The Labor govt’s every move. The fibs have had a free ride so far. Yet the fibs are talking about payback. Clive palmer even knows what it is all about. Castrating the public broadcaster

  11. CTar1

    Croc’s two fave colours are red and life jacket orange. Making Tones wear his red budgie smugglers will make it very exciting.

  12. [Musrum, if you are about, how about making the addition of half a dozen /i commands automatic in the comments box?]

    You’d only need one close italics tag. Better yet simply have a close all open tags command at the end.

  13. Saul Eslake explains why Eric Abetz’s fears of a wages explosion are nonsense.
    [Australia has seen periods of rapid wage growth, but the economic conditions that led to it were much different from what the nation is currently experiencing according to Saul Eslake, chief economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Australia.]

    Have a good day all.

  14. Apparently some Liberal Senator is attacking the ABC for lack of balance (they favour reporting climate scientists over ratbags, apparently).

    Which brought to mind the book “Merchants of Doubt” – the author shows that the media’s modern idea of ‘balance’ was originally pushed by tobacco companies, replacing the older accepted practice that ‘balance’ involved critical evaluation – that is, the reporter had at least looked at counter arguments, even if they then didn’t report on them because they didn’t stand up to analysis.

  15. victoria

    I have to say, the standard of reporting seemed to be “Oh, look, he showed me a house with a tin roof. That’s proof that he provided the tin for the roof for free to John Setka.”

    Now, he quite possibly did. But his ability to point to a tin roof doesn’t constitute as proof of any kind, and the journo should have been pointing that out.

  16. zoomster

    What annoys me about the roof aspect, is that it was 20 years ago. Who keeps proof of purchase or otherwise from 20 years ago.
    Another thing that bugs me is that the businesses are giving something in exchange for “peace on the job”. What about the part of getting the business as well

  17. The ABC having Tim Wilson & Reith on The Drum is proof that the they far from Left biased, not to mention our little favorites on Insiders, Ackerman & Henderson.

    The list goes on & on…

  18. Is this just a smear job on Setka in light of the defamation case he has against Abbott and the ABC trying to get back in the LNP good books by pursuing this.

  19. Murdoch may be joining in because he has an interest in knobbling the ABC and because he has to be out supporting his puppet PM.

    However, I’m not sure there is “blood in the water” with respect to the ABC yet. If Abbott picks a fight with the ABC at the moment he’s likely to lose because the public trusts the ABC a lot more than it trusts Abbott.

    Perhaps that may change in future, and a steady drip drip drip of eroding the ABC may do the trick over time, but right now Abbott would be a fool to go in all guns blazing.

  20. We had the misfortune of renting a holiday house kitted out with Foxtel. The kids programmes are some of the worst I’ve seen. All candyfloss American teenbot sitcoms set to the same formula so that discerning between each show is nearly impossible. After a couple of days I pulled the card & the kids went back to watching ABC23. I love Horrible Histories. 🙂

  21. hj

    I doubt it. Corruptive behaviour within the industry is not a fantasy. The reality is that companies are as much a part of the corruption as anyone else.

  22. [Fed stays the course by tapering another $10 billion

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve Wednesday took another gradual step toward exiting its controversial bond-buying program, remaining stoic in the face of market turmoil.

    As expected, the Fed decided to reduce the pace of monthly asset purchases to $65 billion, from January’s $75 billion.

    “They are in a groove,” said Brian Bethune, chief economist at Alpha Economic Foresights.

    “They have a bias to taper and will continue on that unless evidence points in a different direction,” Bethune added. ]

  23. Those of you who payed attention during Classics class in high school will remember the story of King Xerxes of Persia, and his attempts to get his army across the Hellespont (present-day Dardanelles) and give it to the Greeks.

    As those of us who were listening know, the make-shift bridge across the waterway was washed away by a storm, and Xerxes was so enraged, he ordered his flagellants to give the sea 300 lashes!

    Today, history has repeated itself, and the descendant of Xerxes, King Anthony of Perishia (recently renamed because he is “perishing” in the polls) has also experienced a devastating drawback to his plans to invade the Greek colony of Indonesia.

    Anthony’s warships, unfortunately for him, have fallen foul of some very tricky “on water” vagaries and have been grounded on Kuta Beach, much to the delight of the beach-side fairy-floss and ice-cream vendors.

    Meanwhile, King Anthony is not impressed with the lily-livered attitude of the Perishia sailors. He is quoted as saying, “there are winds, there are tides, there are other things that they’re focusing on…”

    But the Timor Sea, in Anthony’s eyes, is the real culprit. Just like in the times of good King Xerxes, it will have to be taught a lesson it will never forget. Next time Anthony sends out an invasion fleet, he is not going to tolerate another Spanish Armada-like debacle. So, in the meantime, that pesky tide is going to get its comeuppance. Cue: “Whip it” by Devo.

    Crack that whip
    Give those tides a clip
    Near a sandy cay
    Leadin’ us astray
    :- (
    When a current comes along
    We must whip it
    Help make the ding turn into dong
    We must whip it
    Before I look a nong
    We must whip it
    :- (
    Now whip it
    Ebb n’ flow
    Dem whirlpools
    Stop the surge
    Stop the flux
    Vex the vortex
    Steady de eddy
    Jus’ whip it
    Whip it good
    :- (
    When rogue tides shaft our plans
    We must whip it
    We will never live it down
    Unless we whip it
    No invasion’s sound
    Unless we whip it
    :- (
    I say whip it
    Whip it good
    I say whip it
    Whip it good
    :- (
    Crack that whip
    Give those tides a clip
    Near a sandy cay
    Leadin’ us astray
    :- (
    When a current comes along
    We must whip it
    Help make the ding turn into dong
    We must whip it
    Before I look a nong
    We must whip it

  24. Of course, respectable small business owners would never hire bikies or engage in extortion, so he must be a union rep in disguise (or something)–

    [A PROMINENT Albury-Wodonga businessman with terminal cancer has been charged with arranging for an outlaw motorcycle gang member to threaten to assault and demand property from a Huon man.]

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