BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,468 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. This report brings no surprises to bludgers, but the illogicality of cutting after school care and trade skills while retaining the PPL shows the sheer stupidity of the Libs’ policies.

    [The Abbott government’s MYEFO documents presented its budget commitments for the next four financial years, from 2013-14 to 2016-17.

    Mr McMorrow’s report shows public schools will be worse off than private schools by the government’s decision to stick to the Gonski model for only four years.

    It shows the Abbott Government’s recent $1.2 billion funding commitment to WA, QLD and NT over 4 years has been “significantly funded” by cuts to trade training centre funding and before and after school care (worth $1.5 billion over 6 years).

    It also shows funding for public schools in 2016/17 will be $90 million lower than projected in the May 2013 budget, while for private school funding will be $34 million higher.

    “It would be helpful for the Government to explain these differences,” the report says.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/abbotts-gonski-to-hit-public-schools-harder-20140130-31ni2.html#ixzz2rpFS45eJ

  2. [David Rowe’s inspiration for the toon.]
    poroti
    You never cease to amaze me with the speed at which you can find and link obscure references.

  4. Abbott before the election…contrast to Abbott since the election

    .@TonyAbbottMHR 21/7/11 “…any attempt by government to slide out from under critical scrutiny is just wrong.”

    .@TonyAbbottMHR 24/7/13 “Look, we’ve got to allow the media to do their job…”

    .@TonyAbbottMHR 20/6/12 : “I think it’s very important that we always have in this country a diverse and dynamic media.”

    .@TonyAbbottMHR “We want a robust free media and if…that involves being disrespectful towards authority, so be it.”

    .@TonyAbbottMHR 15/3/13 “…at the end of the day people are entitled to conclude that this government wants to bully its critics.”

    and the best one
    .@TonyAbbottMHR 24/7/13 “The ABC will flourish under the Coalition. The ABC will flourish under the Coalition.”

  5. [The strong indication is WA will have to go back to the polls after a top judge cast doubt on using the original count before 1370 ballot papers went missing for the bungled Senate re-count.

    Justice Kenneth Hayne of the High Court, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, highlighted several times during the first day of a two-day hearing that the poll result could not be determined because the papers were unavailable for final scrutiny.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/21166790/judge-leans-towards-new-poll/

  8. Liberals are clueless

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk · Jan 28
    Employment Minister Abetz is still fighting the “wages” war that ended peacefully 25 years ago. Like Newman, unaware the system has moved on

  11. confessions

    Yes looking more and more that Antony Greens predictive powers are good.

    I am looking forward to it. WA voters get to vote in an election vital to the future of the country and looking good for the forces of light according to the polls 🙂

  18. Aussie

    all the more interesting, Peetz’ piece is based on data from Abetz’ own department.

    Reminds me of the days when, as Education Minister, Nelson deplored the standard of education in Australia — whilst putting glossy brochures out to every school, with a signed introduction describing our system as the best in the world.

  20. @MrDenmore: Foreign media firm which hacks phones, peddles lies & destroys reputations accuses public broadcaster of treachery
    =============================

    and comes out supporting a Royal Commission into Unions after running a campaign of misinformation and lies when it was proposed that there be an inquiry into the media to ensure that it was not hacking phones/computers in Australia

    The journalists have no ethics

  21. Where was all this talk of the ABC “treachery” during the time Abbott was in Opposition?

    This is typical immature bully stuff…can dish it out but can’t handle it when it is aimed at them – gutless

  24. “@nickharmsen: The #savotes campaign will be hosted by @CUhlmann in front of a live audience which will pose questions to the candidates. #saparli”

  29. guytaur

    For the life of me I cannot understand this attack on the ABC. The man is losing it.

    I know that the ABC comes under attack from many on here which I don’t understand either but ABC and SBS are the only channels I watch.

    Abbott condemning the ABC is beyond ridiculous it is completely over the top and not worthy of a PM.

    Being in the pocket of Murdoch and the Alan Jones’s of this world discredits the position of PM and shows him to be unworthy of that position in the first place.

  30. Wouldn’t the liberals have gone insane if Rudd had run such an obvious campaign to tame the ABC. Double standards are incredible.

  32. [Being in the pocket of Murdoch and the Alan Jones’s of this world discredits the position of PM and shows him to be unworthy of that position in the first place.]

    No big surprise Natasha.

  34. MTBW

    I am one that has attacked the “balance” of the ABC. this is because I want it to return to reporting like it used to. Zoomster up thread highlighted that aspect well.

    I make these attacks because I want a quality ABC. This means more support not less so they can do their job. 24 could be a lot better with proper funding. More live coverage less repeats. In fact funded properly it should be of Four Corners and AMWorldTodayPM quality.

    U agree totally with your remarks about Abbott

  36. From previous thread.

    bemused@2157 on ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor | The Poll Bludger

    Psephos@2134

    these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them


    There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

    Correct except for the names being on it.

    When last in Canberra, I deliberately sought out this monument and had a good look. I was disappointed that it did not list the names as I had known a Spanish Civil War veteran and wanted to see his name listed.

  38. confessions

    Distraction? The union corruption story is a gift for the likes of Abbott, why would he need to distract with the ABC?

  39. Been out fencing.

    Something fell on my arm from the tree above and stung me. I brushed it off without looking – from what was left it looked like a green caterpillar.

    Now I’m feeling a little light headed and nauseous – any ideas what it could have been?

  41. Abbott keeps trying to do the distraction stuff, which worked so well for Howard (despite being so obvious I kept wanting to scream at journalists…). The trouble is, he choses distractions which just make him look worse.

    I’m pretty scornful about the way the ABC rolled over for the Libs and their dependence on ‘The Australian’ for news. But I recognise that’s as much due to a lack of resources as anything.

    Attacking the ABC – like most of Abbott’s ‘look over there!’ attempts – is just digging the hole deeper.

  43. Would love to be a fly on the wall in today’s first Cabinet meeting for 2014. Could get interesting re Turnbull’s slapdown of Abbott’s drooling ramble about the ABC and the MacFarlane plan for SPC. The Nationals in Victoria must be VERY nervous today given their perilous position in the bush and all the cutbacks to TAFE in regional areas. State poll in Victoria in November does not look pretty for Napthine. I wonder if Turnbull is quietly positioning himself for a tilt at the leadership given Abbott is slowly unravelling. Steven

  44. guytaur

    Respect your point of view but I don’t have the same view.

    Commercial Television is crap!

    The ABC is informative and there are no bloody commercials.

    As for Fox and Sky which I have never had and don’t want employ a lot of Liberal lackies.

  45. [Attacking the ABC – like most of Abbott’s ‘look over there!’ attempts – is just digging the hole deeper.]

    I agree, it is doing Murdoch’s evil work for him, but it is so very hard when the ABC is so very bad.

  46. lizzie

    googled green flower spider…and came up with this gem –

    [Green Spider Orchid]

    [This Essence can assist in working with telepathy, to attune a person to be more receptive to not only other people but also other species and kingdoms.]

    […Green Spider Orchid can release nightmares, terror and phobias stemming from past lives.]

    http://ausflowers.com.au/Products/Single-Essences/Green-Spider-Orchid

    I’m sure there’s good science to back this up. Maybe it should be on the PBS….

  47. zoomster:

    Yes, that’s how it all looks to me. Even Mark Textor has brought himself out of his self imposed twitter exile to ark up about the ABC.

  48. Steven Grant haby

    Hockey said today that the parent company of Ardmona is Coca Cola Amatil. They made a profit of 200 plus million and therefore the govt should not be subsidizing Ardmona

  49. Turnbull’s comments in Fairfax media this morning:

    [Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has strongly defended the ABC’s editorial independence in the face of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s attack on the national broadcaster, which he says ”instinctively takes everyone’s side but Australia’s”.

    Mr Turnbull defended the Prime Minister’s right to critique the ABC but, in comments that could be interpreted as resistance to Mr Abbott, he said the ABC was rightly accountable to its board of directors, not politicians.

    ”What’s the alternative … the editor-in-chief {of the ABC} becomes the prime minister?” he said. ”Politicians, whether prime ministers or communications ministers, will often be unhappy with the ABC … but you can’t tell them what to write.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-defends-abc-after-tony-abbotts-attack-20140129-31n5z.html#ixzz2rpYvs9nR

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