Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  5. 1298

    What is the point of competition in the electricity market if they do not lower prices because they have to raise them to get competition? The price is about the only thing that they can compete on. They cannot compete on voltage, ampage, cycle rate or reliability. It seems that there is no real advantage to consumers in having electricity competition.

  6. bemused@1354

    davidwh@1350

    It’s very small text

    Do the standard thing to enlarge what you see.

    I still have an iPhone 3GS and was disappointed with the 5 and the 5S so didn’t get a new one.

    The next iPhone sounds like the one that will cause me to upgrade, if half the rumours are true. Main feature I want is larger screen like the Samsungs have. But the new iPhone will have a lot more than that.

  8. Bemused

    I usually just fire up the device, open Safari, and get crackin.

    I have seen your posts like #1352 before but was not tuned in to the reasons.

    Thanks. I’ll try it.

  9. Tom the first and best@1355

    1298

    What is the point of competition in the electricity market if they do not lower prices because they have to raise them to get competition? The price is about the only thing that they can compete on. They cannot compete on voltage, ampage, cycle rate or reliability. It seems that there is no real advantage to consumers in having electricity competition.

    Electricity distribution, like water, gas and telephone land lines is a natural monopoly and the only competition we experience is over who will print our bill and what ‘deal’ we can get out of them.

    We are all stuck with the company that controls the poles and wires in our area and whatever that implies for reliability.

    Our electricity always comes from the same pool of generators.

    I have yet to see ANY argument for privatisation that stands up.

  10. psyclaw@1358

    Bemused

    I usually just fire up the device, open Safari, and get crackin.

    I have seen your posts like #1352 before but was not tuned in to the reasons.

    Thanks. I’ll try it.

    You cannot install cccp in Chrome on an iOS device, but I think you can on a Mac. What are you running?

  11. LSL and St John

    The two rabid nutters

    Indonesia could block our trade routes with three fishing boats. They could block Australian trade access to their waters.

    Oh and if they were blasted to smithereens by Australia they could find a protector – name of China. Now if you think we would win against China you have jelly for brains.

  14. Local commercial TV is showing some Tom Clancy ‘Jack Ryan’ movies over the long weekend. I loved Harrison Ford as Jack Ryan. He was perfectly cast in the role as far as I’m concerned.

  15. Tom the first and best@1364

    1359

    Natural monopolies should be in public ownership.

    Tom, you have some strange ideas at times, but that isn’t one of them. 😛

    The only other sensible alternative is a highly regulated private monopoly. But really, what’s the point in that?

  17. 1363

    The technological balance is in favour of sea denial rather than sea domination and that is not in our favour in a war with Indonesia. With modern anti-shipping missiles, which apparently Indonesia has, brute surface naval force is not very useful.

  18. 1365

    It lets the owning classes have more power and wealth than under public ownership. That is why public ownership is infinitely preferable.

  19. WWP –

    And yet morons were out advocating the AUD depreciation

    I was, and am, one of those ‘morons’, so thanks.

    The AUD appreciated significantly to heights not seen in a very long time.

    Now, ultimately, the value of a particular currency is arbitrary and kind of irrelevant. If the AUD was worth 1000 USD everything would just be adjusted to different price levels.

    The point of exchange rates and floating exchange rates (or non-floating exchange rates that are manually adjusted) is the relative change – how the exchange rate changes over time (and how quickly – the more rapid the more disruptive), and how it changes relative to various major import and export trading partners’ currencies.

    When the AUD appreciated significantly and stayed high for a long period, Australians all effectively got a lot richer. Yay.

    But the other side of that is that Australian wage earners, through no fault of their own, became very uncompetitive against overseas competition. Now, we’re always uncompetitive against 3rd world labour costs, but we’re supposed to make up for it in productivity. Well, when the currency appreciates from 70c to $1.05 you have to boost your productivity by 50% just to stay on the same competitive footing … that ain’t happening in a handful of years.

    So a sustained substantial lift in the currency means 1 of 2 things would have to happen to restore competitiveness – either wages in AUD have to come down or the currency needs to depreciate.

    Either way we were always going to become poorer when compared with the transitory boost we got from the shift to a high exchange rate.

    But having the currency devalue is a heck of a lot less painful than forcing wages down.

    Just ask the Eurozone crisis countries like Greece, where being tied to the Euro meant that having the currency devalue was not even an option.

    Inflation is not the worst thing that could happen, and we will manage the inflationary pressures as the currency comes back down. Once the AUD stabilizes at a new, lower, level – be that 85c or 70c or whatever – and then the inflationary issues will subside again and maybe our manufacturing sector will stop bleeding to death.

  21. Jackol@1369

    WWP –

    And yet morons were out advocating the AUD depreciation


    I was, and am, one of those ‘morons’, so thanks.

    The AUD appreciated significantly to heights not seen in a very long time.
    —-

    Excellent post Jackol, you explained it all well.

    Yes, I too am one of those ‘morons’.

  22. This entire discussion – from at least the war-mongers’ side – is about as stupid as the Navy guy I sometimes meet up in the local bottlo, who tells me “It’d be all over in 24 hours”… meaning Australian forces would wipe Indonesia from the map inside one day.

    Which is exactly what was said (by the same Colonel Blimp-type characters) about the “squinty-eyed, little men” from Japan in WW-2.

    I really cannot believe that Abbott seems to be working to the assumptiion that the old farts and drongoish young tradies who listen to 2GB seriously as a source of information in any way represent mainstream Australian opinion, or indeed have any semblance to rational human beings.

    It’s what happens when you surround yourself with a bunch of sycophants, urgers and lurk merchants: you begin to believe your own publicity.

    There is no way known that Australia could take on Indonesia in any meaningful way and not get the shit beaten out of it… if not on Day #1, then on Day #2.

    Abbott is only doing and saying what he is doing and saying to play to the redneck crown and the aforementioned Colonel Blimps who believe the Darkies just need a good 12 inches of the cold steel up ’em and they’ll turn tail and scarper, leaving Whitey in charge… “Bwana”, “Sahib” and “Tuan” being his God-given positions – lord over the dagoes – in this White Man’s World.

    Whoever is advising Abbott to play this brinkmanship (and it’s us on the brink, not the Indonesians) must be working for the Labor Party.

  24. Gee … I reckon the phone lines between the Oz legal team in The Hague and the AGs Dept in Canberra will be running hot tonight. I reckon they are stuffed. Wouldnt be at all surprised if they cave in and hand the seized documents back …. but there again can’t see it happening with Brandis having the final word.

    A shame I cant stay up for the Oz legal team’s response but suspect it will be a sight to see.

    I’ll update when Ive seen the video of the Oz legal team’s response in the morning.

    Night all, an inauspicious night when Australia has been humiliated by the Timorese legal team before the International Court of Justice. Brandis should should resign since it was his signature on the warrant. But of course he wont.

  28. confessions
    [The war mongering from the Abbottophiles here was trolling, plain and simple.]’
    Yup, they believe it gets our goat.

    I would like to reiterate that, even so, insults and namecalling are incorrect responses :P.

  30. David

    Sorry to say, but your two fellow liberal leaning posters seem to be advocating we go to war Indonesia. Bomb them in fact.

    I think calling them nutters is quite mild. Raving loonies is closer.

  31. DN:

    I’ve insulted nobody with that sentence, unless folks choose to be insulted. And that would be their choice, nothing to do with me.

  33. @AlanKohler: Oh right. RT @David_Speers: Kevin Andrews says paid parental leave plan isn’t one of the “unsustainable” welfare measures @SkyNewsAust

  34. DN

    [I would like to reiterate that, even so, insults and namecalling are incorrect responses .]

    In part because it’s

    a) pointless as their commentary was palpably ridiculous and recognised as such by all who bothered to comment on it

    AND

    b) precisely what they were seeking to provoke. That’s what trolls do. Back in my usenet days, some trolls would resort to mixing their provocatively silly claims with apparently illiterate or innumerate observations chiding others for being uneducated. Few could resist bait like that.

  35. DTR the reason for my cryptic post was that your post appeared on my phone three times for a short while but then corrected. My apologies as I was not having a go at you. The sentiments expressed by LSL etc were just so bizarre you can only hope it was joking in poor taste.

  37. Guytaur

    guytaur@1383

    @AlanKohler: Oh right. RT @David_Speers: Kevin Andrews says paid parental leave plan isn’t one of the “unsustainable” welfare measures @SkyNewsAust

    Now, why shouldn’t we be surprised at that.
    BTW, will these rich mothers still be provided with nannies when they take their leave ?
    after all, you don’t expect them to actually look after their dear ones ?

  40. I also have an evil sense of humour which often is misread and gets me into strife. I think I even managed to upset DN last night which was completely unintentional

  41. I also have an evil sense of humour which often is misread and gets me into strife. I think I even managed to upset DN last night which was completely unintentional

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