Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 27 of 29
1 26 27 28 29
  1. There won’t be a war against Indonesia. But the dispute with Indonesia is getting messier, and one point we should bear in mind is that pretty well all of the ASEAN countries will sympathise with Indonesia, not with us. Plainly East Timor, not an ASEAN member, will also feel more sympathy for Indonesia at the moment. Probably even New Zealand will think we are losing our presence of mind. Nauru, I guess, will support us …

  2. More hamfisted diplomacy by Tony Abbott, insulting the Indonesian President and sabre rattling. The cheersquad on 2GB and #NewsCorpse organs are warming up….

    [Mr Abbott, who had promised to rejig foreign policy to be more Jakarta and less Geneva, nonetheless used that European country as the stage to declare Australia would ”continue to do what we are entitled to do to secure our borders”.

    Speaking from Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum, Mr Abbott praised the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but then added that he ”of all people” understood Australia’s motivations.

    ”Stopping the boats is a matter of sovereignty and President Yudhoyono of all people ought to understand … just how seriously countries take their sovereignty. So we will continue to do what we are entitled to do to secure our borders,’’ Mr Abbott said. That is thought to have been a reference to Indonesian sensitivities over West Papuan independence claims.

    Australian National University Indonesia expert Greg Fealy said while the ‘‘logic’’ of Mr Abbott’s comments may have been sound, the tone was likely to be counter-productive, and could see Mr Abbott’s reputation permanently damaged in Indonesia. ‘‘The way in which he said it could easily be seen as Tony Abbott lecturing to President Yudhoyono, and in particular I think he used the term ‘‘ought’’ – that Yudhoyono ‘ought’ to understand, and I think that was unfortunate,’’ he said.]

  3. Zoidlord not to affect the level of the AUD through trading. The RB would need more than $8 billion. It was to shore up their reserves against any devaluation of the AUD.

  4. davidwh @ 1313: The system has been doing funny things to me too: I hit “Post comment”, get a message telling me I have to be logged in, then come back to the normal comment box where it tells me I am logged in.

  5. deblonay@1290

    Abbott infantile remarks at Davos
    I cringed when I heard them on the neds
    His advice to the “goodies” to lay down their arms would seem, like an invitation to the “baddies’ to kill them on the spot
    what mad stuff at a hi-level forum like Davos
    The audience must have been amazed at his guache statments

    They must all be laughing behind his back.

    Which is a pity, it would be good to see them laugh in his face.

  6. [1307…sprocket_]

    Yup, very dandy of Abbott to offer SBY a few tips on the finer points of sovereignty. Abbott has such a talent for telling others they can stick their propriety up their noses…or any other portal they may prefer.

  7. @davidwh/1315

    Because it’s $8 billion down the drain? At a time where the government is cutting costs?

    It’s called priorities not in check.

  8. davidwh@1324

    I’m on my iPhone so guess I’m using IE.

    Well Apple would be seriously interested in that! 😮
    You would be using either Safari that comes with the iPhone or maybe you installed another browser such as chrome.

  9. davidwh@1334

    I haven’t installed another browser comrade so Safari it is I guess.

    I recommend installing Chrome.
    But that is maybe because I am used to it from my computer and prefer it for that reason.

  10. @davidwh/1335

    Which is nothing as far as I can see.

    I see a rate cut looming and inflation to rise.

    Both is not good because it negates each other benefits.

  11. One bit of the ICJ hearing which I forgot to mention earlier was the moment when the Timorese side asked whether the guarantees offered by Senator Brandis could be reiterated by the Australian “agent” at the hearing, along with a statement that Australia accepted that such a guarantee would bind it in international law. There could hardly be a blunter or more direct statement that East Timor regards Senator Brandis’s word as worthless.

  12. psyclaw@1344

    Bemused, Comrade

    Are there any advantages of Chrome over Safari? And is it more or less user friendly?


    To be honest I can’t really say as I have used Safari so little.
    I am using Chrome on all my devices from an iPhone to a desktop computer.
    The iOS version does not allow the installation of cccp which I regard as a great pity as cccp certainly adds to the usability of PB.
    Chrome allows for the synchronisation of a lot of content between different devices which can be handy.

    Best advice – give it a go and see what you think. 😀

  13. Victoria

    As the others have said, I wish you and your family the very best in dealing with your loss. I hope that in the coming period, what you recall most prominently are the moments where you felt closest to your cousin.

    best wishes …

Comments Page 27 of 29
1 26 27 28 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *