Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. [* Well, that we know of. I suspect some knives are already being sharpened, but I wouldn’t venture a guess as to whose wielding them.]

    There’s already been some evidence of strategically dropped comments about Abbott’s unpopularity that could be construed as whiteanting, but certainly nothing so far that could be equated with Rudd’s behaviour.

    Still, 3 years to go.

  4. For an “arse clown”, Andrews must be doing something right, considering that, come the other end of November, he’ll be the Victorian Premier.

  5. [The study shows that electricity can be supplied from a new wind farm at a cost of AUD 80/MWh (USD 83), compared to AUD 143/MWh from a new coal plant or AUD 116/MWh from a new baseload gas plant, including the cost of emissions under the Gillard government’s carbon pricing scheme. However even without a carbon price (the most efficient way to reduce economy-wide emissions) wind energy is 14% cheaper than new coal and 18% cheaper than new gas.

    “The perception that fossil fuels are cheap and renewables are expensive is now out of date”, said Michael Liebreich, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.]

    – See more at: http://blog.cleantechies.com/2014/01/07/unsubsidized-renewables-now-cheaper-than-subsidized-fossil-fuels-in-australia/#sthash.lWpLlHaU.dpuf

  6. @Yesiree Bob 43

    Agreed. If anyone has the hubris to think they can get away with repeating the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd… issues, it’s the current Liberal party-room.

    Abbott’s two virtues as leader are (were?) his ability to ruthlessly gain constant polling leads over Labor and to unite his perpetually squabbling party in their hatred of Labor and a desire to get office at any cost. If those are gone (and it does look like things are starting to get very tense behind the scenes), what good is he?

    The fear of replicating Labor’s own goals would probably make many reluctant, but if they’ve been at, say, around 46-54 to Labor for a year, they’d have to be wondering what other choice they have. It’s not like he’s so inspiring or respected that the party would stay with him come hell or high water.

    And there are almost certainly people gunning for his job. Even if the general mood is against change, that won’t stop them from trying to destabilize him.

  7. Oh God, Sean didn’t really just try to have a dig at the Scullin government, did he? 😀

    Someone’s not a happy little boy tonight.

  11. The Labor example didn’t stop the Liberals changing leaders in the NT and Victoria. (And if anyone could claim that he was the elected leader, it was Ballieu, who had been the face of the Liberals for several years – whereas Napthine had already been rejected resoundingly).

  12. Re Liberal leadership: another thing is that Tony Abbott is not the Thatcherite that Murdoch and the big end of town want. I’m sure that they don’t want a bar of his PPL scheme for a start. And while social conservatism is useful for getting the punters on board, they don ‘t want it to go so far that it will put off more voters than it attracts. Unless Abbott proves to be a useful sock puppet for his backers, he’s gone.

  13. victoria@59

    Shorten says Labor will support action to curb drunken violence

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-says-labor-will-support-action-to-curb-drunken-violence-20140113-30q14.html

    That is both the right thing to do and good politics.
    Abbott is now either pressured into doing something constructive or being seen to be defending the Hotel and other interests fuelling the violence and filling the Liberal coffers.

    Go Bill! 😀

  14. [The Labor example didn’t stop the Liberals changing leaders in the NT and Victoria]
    Yes, it’s funny how many people forget about those instances.

    Today’s Mumble being a prime eg.

  15. z,

    Napthine succeeded Kennett as leader of the Liberal Opposition but was deposed by Robert Doyle before the 2002 election.

    So, Napthine has not had his chance to be severely rejected by the voters as yet.

  16. Do we have a Labor market person who can disentangle Morgan’s employment stats?

    Are we looking a surge in the participation rate? Or are we looking at job losses? Or are we looking at some combination of the two?

  18. Boerwar@66

    Do we have a Labor market person who can disentangle Morgan’s employment stats?

    Are we looking a surge in the participation rate? Or are we looking at job losses? Or are we looking at some combination of the two?

    ABC had unemployment lower(?) at 6.7% and showed a graph which indicated a falling participation rate.

    Morgan includes many that ABS exclude through devices such as counting anyone who does 1hr work a week as employed. Yes, I know that is the standard method, but it is not a statistic that I think should guide policy.

  19. Labor had a good turn-out of members last weekend in campaigning for the Griffifth by-election.

    About 125 branch members swamped the electorate on Saturday and Sunday conducting stalls, door-knocking etc.

    There appears to be a lot of ill-feeling re Abbott’s plans for Medicare and was mentioned often by voters being door-knocked.

    In addition, Kevin Rudd did a walkthrough of the local Westfield shopping complex with Labor candidate, Terri Butler, and received a warm reception.

    Good to see Kevin supporting the local Labor candidate as he indicated he would.

  20. Bemused @ 63

    According to the article you linked, Abbott has defunded that Alcohol and Drugs authority that had been advising governments for 50 or so years.

    Abbott is a wrecking ball to everything.

  23. Centre@70

    Bemused @ 63

    According to the article you linked, Abbott has defunded that Alcohol and Drugs authority that had been advising governments for 50 or so years.

    Abbott is a wrecking ball to everything.

    Hey, don’t take credit from victoria, she linked that article, I merely commented on it.

    My interest is the tactic being used. It is completely different to Abbott’s negativity when he was LOTO and it is placing Labor in the position of leading on the issue.

    Very interesting indeed.

  28. bemused

    [Among those who were employed 1,092,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. ]

    That sounds exactly the same as the ABS – anyone who works is counted as ’employed’, regardless of the amount of work they do.

    Where Morgan does differ from the ABS is that he lumps in the totally unemployed with the under employed —

    [In December in total an estimated 2.503 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed – the highest ever recorded.]

    …fair enough from one point of view, but it gives a false impression. For example, I could be working 35 hours a week, earning an above average wage, and still be ‘underemployed’ by this measure because I really would like to be getting those 3 extra hours.

  29. I think one of the issues this government is creating for itself is a misunderstanding of what Australians have come to expect from our governments.

    For quite a while – since the Hawke/Keating government really – we’ve come to expect that our governments will be working towards something. Building on what has gone before. Something approaching a philosophy of continuous improvement.

    The Hawke/Keating government put in place a lot of important reforms, and put Medicare back the way it was supposed to be. Howard didn’t rip up much (until he got to Workchoices) – his initial razor gang approach to the budget did hurt, but it didn’t destroy institutions and it didn’t tear away what we had come to expect of government.

    Rudd/Gillard obviously didn’t tear down the Howard legacy. There was tweaking – means testing the private health insurance rebate eg, and softly-softly on school funding. Perhaps they were just too timid, but I think they understood that Australian governments are expected to refine, tune, tweak; improve.

    Australians don’t want (or now, expect) that our governments will be partisan warriors tearing down what the last mob did and putting up their own partisan stuff that the next mob will tear down in turn in a vicious eternal war.

    Abbott vowed he would be a “unity ticket” with the ALP on the big vision stuff – education, NDIS, health funding. He swore he would be transparent and open about what his government would do – no surprises etc etc.

    But in the end, all he is proposing to do is to destroy everything the previous government worked for.

    That might warm the cockles of a bitter LNP supporter, but it’s not what Australians want from their government.

  30. z,

    The way he’s travelling he could be deposed again before the elction this year.

    Yhat would be a very unusual daly double, methinks.

  31. feeney@69

    Labor had a good turn-out of members last weekend in campaigning for the Griffifth by-election.

    —
    In addition, Kevin Rudd did a walkthrough of the local Westfield shopping complex with Labor candidate, Terri Butler, and received a warm reception.

    Good to see Kevin supporting the local Labor candidate as he indicated he would.

    Hi feeney, good stuff!

    What a contrast between your positive news and confessions whingeing negativity above.

    confessions@51


    —
    There’s already been some evidence of strategically dropped comments about Abbott’s unpopularity that could be construed as whiteanting, but certainly nothing so far that could be equated with Rudd’s behaviour.

  32. Comparing the headline figure from Morgan with that of the ABS is pointless.

    What matters is the trends.

    If Morgan is measuring a consistent upward trend in his measure of unemployment, it is likely we’ll see that in the ABS stats as well.

    Keeping in mind that employment stats from month to month, or even quarter to quarter are very volatile.

    As long as something is measured consistently it is a useful relative measure – quibbling over exactly what is in or out is a bit meaningless – we’re really just interested in what happens to employment over time, and the various measures all do that.

  33. Jakol. it’s exactly that determination to tear down all that has been achieved in the past 6 years that will see Abbott foisted on his own petard.
    You cannot turn on some mythical “Howard Era” switch.
    It doesn’t exist.
    Howard, and his fetid era is long gone

  34. Just checked with 3 separately owned agencies.

    Best odds as follows:

    Coalition $4.25

    Greens $67.00 (show compassion and at least give your money to charity instead of wasting it here).

    Labor $1.20

  35. [The way he’s travelling he could be deposed again before the elction this year.]

    Surely not! That would be unprecedented.

  37. William – re your comment at #25 regarding call backs. My understanding of Morgan’s F2F is that after completing a certain number of interviews, interviewers are required to call back on those that weren’t home – which is usually quite some hours later as Morgan surveys take about an hour to complete. And interviewers can’t usually complete all their interviews in one day so they will call back again the following day as well. So not sure the call back issue is the source of bias. Possibly access is a factor – locked gates in affluent suburbs and inaccessible apartment buildings.

  38. fess,

    The Libs are in disarray here in Victoria. The re-distribution abolished Minister Mary Wooldridge’s seat and one option for her, Bulleen,has been targetted by Matthew Guy ( the next great thing). So you could have Minister v Minister which hardly stimulates Cabinet solidarity.

    If the polls keep stumbling along, the Libs may be tempted to go with generational change. Most of the senior Ministers are relics from the Kennett era.

  39. [ And there are almost certainly people gunning for his job. Even if the general mood is against change, that won’t stop them from trying to destabilize him. ]

    Taking Abbott’s job away from him – especially given recent polling trends – has got to be so easy that in a perverse kind of a way it’s perfectly understandable that none of the LNP “wannabees” will want to have a go just yet – just imagine the ignominy of trying and losing. To Abbott, FFS!.

    I expect the poll numbers will have to go a few more degrees south before any of them will be brave enough to raise their heads above the parapet.

    Sadly, Australia will be the loser. As others have pointed out, just look at the stock market (relative to other countries) since Abbott has been in the big chair.

    How much longer will the LNP’s financial backers put up with it? Unless there is something more lucrative in the offing for them further down the track, of course.

  40. If the polls keep stumbling along, the Libs may be tempted to go with generational change. Most of the senior Ministers are relics from the Kennett era.

    Same problem that RAbbott has, most of his front bench are resurrected zombies from the Howard era

  43. GG:

    Yeah I kinda got the impression the Vic Liberals are lurching from fiasco to crisis with resignations, scandals and the like happening all the time.

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