Held since the 2010 election by independent Andrew Wilkie, Denison encompasses Hobart along the western shore of the Derwent River and the hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore Hobart suburbs and southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by Franklin. Like all of Tasmania’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation consistently set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state.
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| Grey and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Andrew Wilkie and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Prior to 2010 the seat was presumed to be safe for Labor, notwithstanding the local strength of the Greens. Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the seat was lost to the 1917 split when incumbent William Laird Smith joined Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. Over subsequent decades it was fiercely contested, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975.
Denison was held through the Fraser years by former state MP Michael Hodgman, who joined his four Tasmanian Liberal colleagues in picking up a swing against the trend of the 1983 election due to local anger over the Franklin dam issue. However, Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated in 1987 by Labor’s Duncan Kerr. Hodgman returned as a state member for Denison in 1992 before eventually bowing out due to poor health in 2010 (he died in June 2013). His son, Will Hodgman, is the state’s current Liberal Opposition Leader.
The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure, giving him consistent double-digit margins starting from 1993. In this he was substantially assisted by preferences from the emerging Greens. The preselection which followed Kerr’s retirement in 2010 kept the endorsement in the Left faction with the nomination of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state Attorney-General Judy Jackson.
What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, who had come to national attention in 2003 when he resigned as an intelligence officer with the Office of National Assessments officer in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent candidate for Denison at the state election in 2010, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.
Wilkie acheived his win in 2010 with just 21.2% of the primary vote, crucially giving him a lead over the Greens candidate who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count 1.2% ahead of Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr. This left Wilkie among a cross bench of five members in the first hung parliament since World War II.
Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority, which the Liberals took seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions from the Liberals that his approach was insincere.
The deal Wilkie reached with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. When the government’s numbers improved slightly after Peter Slipper took the Speaker’s chair, the government retreated from the commitment. Wilkie responded by withdrawing his formal support for the government, although it never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.
Wilkie was comfortably re-elected at the 2013 election with 38.1% of the primary vote, despite an aggressive Labor campaign that included putting him behind the Liberals on how-to-vote cards. Both Labor (down from 35.8% to 24.8%) and the Greens (down from 19.0% to 7.9%) recorded double-digit drops, and most of the northern suburbs booths which had stayed with Labor in 2010 were won by Wilkie. His final margin over Labor after preferences was up from 1.2% to 15.5%, while the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred count recorded a 6.9% swing to the Liberals and a Labor margin of 8.9%.
Major US court case over USS aircraft carrier exposure to Fukushima mnucleur disaster
_____________________________
The US vessal sent to Japan to give humanitarian aid after the Tsunami was exposed to massive doses of radio active steam and water and a great number of crew members are now being diagnosed with radiation sickness
The Japanese power company lied about the severity of the release of nucleur material…and the crew drank and washed in desalinated water from the seas around Fukushima
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Toll-of-U-S-Sailors-Devas-by-Harvey-Wasserman-Fukushima_Radiation-140111-539.html
And with ST concentrating on the US market he has failed to address the market in the other G20 countries.
In ST world countries other than the US do not exist.
As well one other market that St has ignore is the Chinese market which has a very big impact on the economic conditions in this country.
Cherry picking of data might make you feel like a prophet but is really show that you are talking out of your bum.
I notice the ST has cut and run once the discussion re the market moved above that of a kindergartner student.
Obviously the fact that’s it’s well after midnight can’t have anything to do with it.
His last repy was at 12.10 so.
He was prepared to sprout rubbish and the do a bunk.
He was prepared to talk out of his bum and then do a bunk.
This is his SOP
No it isn’t. His SOP is to respond idiotically to everything that’s thrown at him. A propensity to “cut and run” is the exact opposite of what’s wrong with him.
Well William I will do you the courtesy of saying I am off to bed. Which is something the ST was no prepared to do even though he was in the middle of a conservation.
Have to disagree.
He cuts and runs all the time.
He makes a statement
Disappears for a short time
The come back with another idiotic statement ignoring what has been said which he has been powdering his nose.
night
Update 04:29:00 on 13/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Paul Sheehan goes in to bat for Corgi. A cornflakes spitter!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/so-ready-to-throw-book-at-bernardi-without-reading-it-20140112-30okv.html
I’m glad it’s not my scene.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fare-increase-fails-to-tempt-latenight-cabs-20140112-30orr.html
Surprise, surprise! another broken “promise”.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbotts-jobs-freeze-doesnt-stop-public-service-recruiting-20140112-30osl.html
If the Victorian government was serious they should withdraw the licence for thee rapacious mongrels. It holds all the cards.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/anger-over-poker-machine-venue-cash-loophole-20140112-30op7.html
Wednesday might be popcorn time.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senators-to-quiz-budget-cutting-crew-over-audit-process-20140112-30or9.html
This could be an interesting showdown.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/churches-urge-mps-not-to-undo-pokie-reform-20140112-30op6.html
David Rowe sees off Sharon.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
MUST SEE!! Alan Moir nails Fraudband.
Matt Campbell is back from holidays with a classic on the lifeboats.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
And from the Land of the Free –
Cartoons on the War on Poverty 50 years on.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/12/cartoons-day-war-poverty-50-years-later/
Virgin Galactic’s first test flight.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/11/video-overnight-thread-stunning-video-shows-virgin-galactic-test-flight/
Some Chris Christie bullying cartoons.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/11/cartoons-day-chris-christie-bully/
And it gets worse for him as the possibility of impeachment is on the table.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/11/nj-lawmaker-if-bridgegate-scandal-ties-back-to-christie-impeachment-clearly-an-option/
BK
[Alan Moir nails Fraudband.]
😆
[Both Abbott and Bernardi have written extensively on how to fight back for Australian values, with Abbott’s book Battlelines widely considered a job application for the Liberal leadership. Abbott is also on record as sharing many of Bernardi’s concerns: he fears “political correctness run riot” in education and media regulation, supporting instead traditional values and freedom of speech. Abbott is also against abortion and has shared a number of personal objections to homosexuality. They also have similar views on workplace reform.
Seen from such an angle, it would appear Bernardi does represent the position of the government, not only due to his status as an elected senator who received top billing, but also because of the similar views and strategies used by his party teammates. Any disavowal from Abbott’s office appears disingenuous to say the least. The calls for “common sense” and “battle of ideas” and the cries against “the tyranny of political correctness” appear straight out of the Liberal Party hymn book and right now Bernardi is singing up a vulgar storm.
Yet, despite the song and their promise to be a more accountable government, with more honesty and common sense than their Labor predecessors, the Liberals are doing everything they can to suppress discussion of ideas.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/libs-stifle-debate-while-touting-battle-of-ideas-20140112-30ot0.html#ixzz2qDVFTPKy
Ah, Sheehan (she says, snuggling down comfortably with her morning coffee) — you have to assume he was bitten by Logic as a child (or using the pop psychology he detests, perhaps he’s a secret logician?)
[Monday: the first story that suggested Bernardi’s book was controversial appeared, as night follows day, on the ABC. Within hours of the ABC report, and interview by Bernardi on ABC TV following up on that report..]
Yes, folks, the implication here is that the ABC vilified Bernardi – by publicising his book and interviewing him on it.
They are Teh Evil.
[hundreds of negative reviews of The Conservative Revolution were published by people who had not read the book….]
Including several by people defending Bernardi who admitted they hadn’t read the book. I’m assuming Sheehan spits on them, too.
[…and the comments at the office became more personal. ”There were questions to my staff like ‘Can you ask Cory how I should insert my tampon, as he wants to tell all women what to do?”’ Bernardi said]
Well, yes, there were some personal comments about Bernardi. This obviously wasn’t one of them. (Strange that the various references to bestiality – a big theme in the reviews – don’t get a run).
[Entsch weighs in via Fairfax Media, insinuating Bernardi is a self-loathing homosexual and asking what Bernardi would think if a member of his family turned out to be gay: ”Would he advocate sterilisation?”
This is despicable]
No more despicable than some of the statements Bernardi makes in his book. But hey, that freedom of speech thing only works one way.
[…there is a subtext to this. After the Coalition won government last year, Tony Abbott dropped Entsch from the position of chief whip. And Entsch is friendly with Malcolm Turnbull, who is openly contemptuous of Bernardi. Entsch even mentioned Turnbull in his attack on Bernardi, saying Turnbull had been raised by his single father and was not a lesser person for that.]
Of course, Entsch may have just decided that Bernardi is a despicable human being all on his ownsome (I mean, that’s not too big a leap for most people), rather than it being a Dark Conspiracy instrumented by that Eminence Gris (probably misspelt, but what the hey) Malcolm Turnbull, spinning his web of deception in the shadows.
Unless Sheehan is arguing that Bernardi’s views are so sensible that noone could take offence to them without having an ulterior motive (oh, hang on…)
[”Interestingly, the email feedback has been overwhelmingly positive,” Bernardi said.]
Yes, Cory. There, there, dear.
It’s been quite obvious from the way Bernardi’s been quoted that he hasn’t read any of the negative emails, but has relied on reports from staff. They probably took pity on him and wanted to stop the tears.
(Remember that scene in “Frontline” where Mike Moore finds they’ve been hiding the negative letters from him?)
[…no-one has even pretended to have read the book. If they had, they would see Bernardi quotes a plethora of studies and that it was a British Family Court judge, Sir Paul Coleridge, not Bernardi, who came up with the phrase that traditional families should be the ”gold standard” as the best protector of children’s welfare…]
How honest of them, Paul. And gee, fancy Bernardi getting into trouble for quoting someone else. I assume that the reason this is Unfair is because Bernardi doesn’t actually agree with the quote…
[Based on his Family Court experience, the judge said family breakdown was the root cause of most social ills..]
The judge was seeing a bit of a biased sample.
[…the parade of bigotry over the past seven days – absurdly claiming to be in defence of tolerance.]
Once again, freedom of speech only works one way.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/so-ready-to-throw-book-at-bernardi-without-reading-it-20140112-30okv.html#ixzz2qDUYNubs
An interestinhg article to ponder over. The increasing use of steroids and the like.
http://tinyurl.com/mqz369w
The Pommie cricket team must be wishing for the plane home.
Oh, I should mention that Sheehan begins by quoting Obama. That’s to shut up all us whinging Lefties, because we all obviously think the US President can do and say no wrong and have thus been wrong footed by the Great Man.
And we all obviously accept without question that statistics which may be true for the US are equally true for Australia.
zoomster
Now we should wait for Ackerman and Bolt to come in with support.
Of course, the reason why there is a correlation between single parent families and the woes Obama mentions in the US – and not in Australia – is because of poverty, not family structure.
I read a study years ago (in pre internet days) which pointed out that, isolated out by race, the figures for Aborigines on crime and alcoholism were genuinely shocking. When you correlated them to income levels instead of race, they’re perfectly normal.
I’d expect that children from single parent families in the US would yeild different statistics to those of single parent families in Australia, given the different levels of support available to them in both countries.
zoomster@420
Thanks Zoom, that’s a valuable insight.
Zoomster
[I read a study years ago (in pre internet days) which pointed out that, isolated out by race, the figures for Aborigines on crime and alcoholism were genuinely shocking. When you correlated them to income levels instead of race, they’re perfectly normal.]
Way back in the early to mid ’80s there was a commission looking at Aboriginal deaths in custody in WA . One of the findings I remember was very much that point. Important at the time as being WA there were more than a few people who ascribed an inherent criminality to Aboriginal people.
zoomster
An addendum about the judge in Sheehan’s article
@newsmary: …without mentioning that the judge in question was disciplined for judicial misconduct on this issue last year. http://t.co/Bai4GDHiAi
[isolated out by race, the figures for Aborigines on crime and alcoholism were genuinely shocking. When you correlated them to income levels instead of race, they’re perfectly normal.]
The WA Aboriginal Child Health Survey finds exactly this.
[An addendum about the judge in Sheehan’s article]
I simply skip anything he writes.
Total crap.
Ctar
zoomster has done the reading for us.
Glad some on the left do so the crap can be demolished and not left to stand for the gullible to believe.
I should remind by left I mean left of the LNP and Murdoch media.
Stuff in Bangkok not good.
Most visitors don’t appreciate that the local men are often ‘tooled’ up. Pistols are standard for many.
Ctar
Yes. Someone was shot yesterday. The minority not accepting the majority vote is never going to go well.
If corruption was the true concern they would be campaigning for an ICAC style body not the overthrow of a democratically elected government,
guy
[ The minority not accepting the majority vote is never going to go well.]
It seems intractable.
The usual Thai response is Army come on down.
Ctar
The only good thing about the whole mess is the restraint of the army this time. They seem to want nothing to do with it,
Thus the demonstrations to try and force their hand,
guy
Off Thailand now. Things look like warm today, only 42C predicted for Swan Hill.
Been to the shops and hunkered down.
Ctar
Have a 😎 day. I am about to head out but Sydney only getting to late 20’s today. My part of it anyway.
Morning all
This on twitter made me laugh
[Gerard Henderson leaves Fairfax to join Murdoch’s Oz. Now all right-wing looney tunes at same asylum. Big win for public sanity.]
guy
Tomorrow likely to be different.
zoomster
This on twitter sums up Sheehan’s latest brain fart
[When a mainstream media columnist wants to be critical it’s “free speech”. When the public do it it’s a malevolent “hate campaign”. #auspol]
WA’s leading business group has called on the Barnett Government to develop a 10-year plan to progressively sell down State-owned businesses amid a warning from Treasury that government agencies such as Western Power represent a spending risk to the Budget
CCIWA general manager of corporate communications Tim Bray said the Government was getting an insufficient return on investment from the GTEs.
===================================
The state government is getting an insufficient return.
This type of thinking is based around the premise that government should operate like a corporation.
The low return to government means that the consumers aren’t paying higher prices. While these “companies” are govt owned there is no need for them to be profit driven, they remain service driven. Once they get into private hands that changes.
Sell it all off and the private company is suddenly going to get a sufficient return? I think not.
Not without getting payments from the government that will increase taxes and govt charges and/or increasing prices.
Either way, the consumer will pay more.
Vic
[Gerard Henderson leaves Fairfax to join Murdoch’s Oz. Now all right-wing looney tunes at same asylum. Big win for public sanity.]
It makes it easier to contain the nutters.
Judges, other than heads of jurisdiction, should not do media interviews.
The ordinary consequence is that some general view about cases is extracted and that view forms the basis for a disqualification application.
Recently a NSW magistrate sitting in the North West was the victim of a strident (maybe even an unfair) attack by the head of the indigenous legal service. He responded via a media interview. Whether his response was reasonable or not, he has since been disqualified from hearing criminal matters involving indigenous accuseds.
[James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
Follow
Ken Smith announces he will retire at the next election. #springst
8:49 AM – 13 Jan 2014
10 RETWEETS 1 FAVORITE ReplyRetweetFavorite]
The Victorian Speaker who has been less than honourable of late, is not contesting the next election in November,
victoria
Too late, too late!!
CTar1
Indeed
Actually was at my local woolworths yesterday, and noticed copies of Herald Sun still packed in huge plastic bundle on the stand. There was one loose copy next to it. I daresay that this is done to make it easier to return the unsold papers
lizzie
As in November is too far away for the election?
Heard tennis commentator on sports radio last night talking about Australian Open which commences today. He said wtte that whilst there has always been a really hot day or two to contend with during the tournament, this whole week of approx 40 degree days is unprecedented. They are putting contingencies in place to deal with it. For eg. Centre court roof will be closed all week.
victoria
As in – he should have been removed months ago. He completely lost control of the Parliament.
Some figures to show that while Abbott is a tight wad with his own money, travelling ‘cattle’ class for his holiday, he is more than prepared to dip into the taxpayer funded trough
In Sydney it makes a great difference how close to the coast you are. These are the forecast maxima for the next seven days:
Sydney (measured on a breezy Harbour headland): 25, 28, 29, 29, 29, 30, 27
Parramata (23 km West of CBD) : 27, 30, 32, 32, 33, 35, 28
Parramatta temps will be closer to what most Sydneysiders will experience. While the temperatures are lower than those that will be experienced in Melbourne, Canberra and Adelaide, the humidity will be high.
This should be interesting – opening up loopholes for the big end of town ?
Surely a lot if not not all will require Senate agreement.
Some of the laws may be outdated etc but still plenty of potential for it to blow up in abbott’s face and get voters offside –
[ Abbott eyes repeal of 8000 red tape laws
AAP, with a staff reporter
The Abbott government is planning a “repeal day” in parliament in March when it hopes to axe more than 8000 federal laws in a push to cut red tape costs.
The Australian reports that the “repeal day” is scheduled for the final parliamentary sitting week in March and is part of a federal government plan to slash red tape by $1 billion a year.
The Statute Law Revision Bill and the Amending Acts 1901-1969 Bill will propose slashing 8000 redundant laws going back around 100 years.
On the same day, parliament will be presented with a number of bills proposing the repeal of “burdensome regulations”.
The bills are to be debated in the coming weeks, with the government reportedly claiming they’ll represent the “biggest single reduction in federal laws ever put before the commonwealth parliament”.
The “repeal day” concept is said to be borrowed from the US, where congress has regular repeal days.
The news comes after the coalition promised last year to cut red tape for Australian businesses by at least $1 billion dollars a year. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/13/national-affairs/abbott-eyes-repeal-8000-red-tape-laws
vic
[Actually was at my local woolworths yesterday,]
They’ve just taken over my local super market.
It used to have a very diverse range of things.
Their in-house stuff is crap.
lizzie
Agree on that.
At this point in time, I have no sense of how the coalition will fare at the next election.
The east west tunnel is being supported by the construction industry and its union based workforce. Simply because of fhe jobs that it would garner. On the other hand, the residents affected by this project, are vehemently opposed ro it. So far, the Herald Scum has reported it very unfavourably from the protestors perspective, which is hardly a surprise.