Seat of the week: Denison

With a state election looming on the horizon, Seat of the Week turns its gaze to Tasmania.

Held since the 2010 election by independent Andrew Wilkie, Denison encompasses Hobart along the western shore of the Derwent River and the hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore Hobart suburbs and southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by Franklin. Like all of Tasmania’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation consistently set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state.

Grey and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Andrew Wilkie and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Prior to 2010 the seat was presumed to be safe for Labor, notwithstanding the local strength of the Greens. Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the seat was lost to the 1917 split when incumbent William Laird Smith joined Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. Over subsequent decades it was fiercely contested, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975.

Denison was held through the Fraser years by former state MP Michael Hodgman, who joined his four Tasmanian Liberal colleagues in picking up a swing against the trend of the 1983 election due to local anger over the Franklin dam issue. However, Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated in 1987 by Labor’s Duncan Kerr. Hodgman returned as a state member for Denison in 1992 before eventually bowing out due to poor health in 2010 (he died in June 2013). His son, Will Hodgman, is the state’s current Liberal Opposition Leader.

The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure, giving him consistent double-digit margins starting from 1993. In this he was substantially assisted by preferences from the emerging Greens. The preselection which followed Kerr’s retirement in 2010 kept the endorsement in the Left faction with the nomination of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state Attorney-General Judy Jackson.

What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, who had come to national attention in 2003 when he resigned as an intelligence officer with the Office of National Assessments officer in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent candidate for Denison at the state election in 2010, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.

Wilkie acheived his win in 2010 with just 21.2% of the primary vote, crucially giving him a lead over the Greens candidate who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count 1.2% ahead of Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr. This left Wilkie among a cross bench of five members in the first hung parliament since World War II.

Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority, which the Liberals took seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions from the Liberals that his approach was insincere.

The deal Wilkie reached with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. When the government’s numbers improved slightly after Peter Slipper took the Speaker’s chair, the government retreated from the commitment. Wilkie responded by withdrawing his formal support for the government, although it never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.

Wilkie was comfortably re-elected at the 2013 election with 38.1% of the primary vote, despite an aggressive Labor campaign that included putting him behind the Liberals on how-to-vote cards. Both Labor (down from 35.8% to 24.8%) and the Greens (down from 19.0% to 7.9%) recorded double-digit drops, and most of the northern suburbs booths which had stayed with Labor in 2010 were won by Wilkie. His final margin over Labor after preferences was up from 1.2% to 15.5%, while the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred count recorded a 6.9% swing to the Liberals and a Labor margin of 8.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Seat of the week: Denison”

Comments Page 3 of 16
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  4. Ratsars@100

    This quote from Isaac Asimov describes Abbott and his cronies (including Sean Tisme) to a T. Just replace “United States” with Australia

    “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

    ST takes it one step further – he believes his ignorance is superior to other’s knowledge

  5. That what would otherwise be a perfectly normal event – Abbott taking a flight – has become news is a reflection of how abnormal his standard behaviour is.

  8. DisplayName@105

    That what would otherwise be a perfectly normal event – Abbott taking a flight – has become news is a reflection of how abnormal his standard behaviour is.

    For me, the saddest part is the state of Australian journalism as evidenced by Bianca Hall’s ridiculous article about such an obvious stunt, and that a supposedly “reputable” newspaper would publish such tripe even in the silly season.

  13. Robb at a tourism summit? All Robb is likely to do is convince potential tourists they should go somewhwere, anywhere else.

    Just another example of the sheer, fracking stupidity of Abbott and his cronies – choosing the world’s greyest, most boring man as the minister for tourism.

  14. [Just on the Abbott in economy thing – very difficult to get upgrades from Economy to Business when you have Premium Economy flyers as well (have flown Premium to Europe a couple of times, never got an upgrade – flights are generally full) they get priority first before Economy. Therefore OTT was probably expecting it to occur because he was the PM. Some words for OTT, don’t piss on someone you want a favour for a couple of weeks later!]

    God the left say some stupid crap… this is a prime example and even includes a leftwing conspiracy theory to seal the deal.

    [Secondly, I now expect him to fly economy when on official business otherwise the media should point the obvious out – happy to fly cattle when you pay, happy to screw the taxpayer when in your official capacity – simple narrative I would have thought.]

    You will be happy to know the Coalition is now making everyone fly business class, instead of first class as they were doing under Labors “drunken sailor” spendathon, saving the Aussie taxpayer millions.

  15. So instead of flying first class to weddings or to check on their investment properties they will fly business class

    – Great (sarcasm)

  16. [You will be happy to know the Coalition is now making everyone fly business class, instead of first class as they were doing under Labors “drunken sailor” spendathon, saving the Aussie taxpayer millions.]

    What utter rubbish they are getting special flights from perth because Coalition MP’s are too precious to fly commercial at all. Wasting millions – Delivering nothing.

  17. @Sean/114

    God Sean you talk of stupid crap.

    Coalition is not making everyone fly business, Abbott is using RAAF.

    This also after buying bullet proof BMW’s.

  18. Over the years the Liberal Party has CHERRY PICKED a measurement to compare its performance and economic management with the Labor Party.

    We all remember the so called record high interest rates under Labor and now more recently their favourite belting criteria, budget surpluses.

    The question that can be asked is whether there is an independent, true and accurate measurement that can be used to judge the management of a country by a government and its management of the economy?

    A measurement that can assess every economic factor that may be controlled or influenced by government, based on its merits?

    There sure is!

    It’s a measurement where people put their money where their mouth is and act through their pockets without giving a rats about political preference or bias.

    The REAL Benchmark…The Stock Market.

    So how does Abbott’s performance and management of the economy compare with the other major global indices since being elected on Sept 7 2013?

    Let’s take a look at, say, a competition ladder type standing:

    1st Nikkei (Japan) +14.8%

    2nd The DAX (Germany) +14.5%

    3rd The Dow Jones (USA) +10.2%

    4th NZ50 (New Zealand) +5.8%

    5th The FTSE (UK) +3.0%

    6th ASX200 (Australia) +2.8%

    *7th Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +1.0%

    Note* off a high base week ending on Aust election date.

    …Second last Jerry, second last!

    Is there a reason, oh yeah:

    – Doors closed for business on foreign investment.

    – Closure of the car manufacturing industry.

    – Slow down in VIC and likely recession in SA.

    – Potential conflicts with trading partners.

    Abbott = HUGE FAIL

    The Australian market would be higher if not for the above obstacles all self imposed by Abbott OR had Labor still been in government 😎

    Eff Off Monkey :mrgreen:

  19. By the way, the bookies would probably be betting we lose our AAA x 3 credit rating.

    Interest rates are certain to fall 😎

  20. re: Ariel Sharon.
    The Arabs were offered a state in 1948. They chose war, thinking they could massacre the Jews. When you resort to force and lose, you don’t get a “do over”, no matter how much you beg and scream.

  21. [re: Ariel Sharon.
    The Arabs were offered a state in 1948. They chose war, thinking they could massacre the Jews. When you resort to force and lose, you don’t get a “do over”, no matter how much you beg and scream.]

    Yeah so lets treat them like animals and exterminate them. Adam often lets us in on the little secrets to excuse murder and torture like this one. Pathetic and disgusting.

  23. Victoria,

    [What about this on Shorten. Notice how Milton spells Labor]

    Yes, and I believe Milton is getting ready to publish his new novel about Tones becoming PM: Paradise Recovered.

  27. [The REAL Benchmark…The Stock Market.]

    Now do one on Howard… then do one on Rudd.

    It’s gonna take more than 100 Days to fix Labors mess mate.

  31. If there was one…..Sharon would have won the Adolf Hitler Medal for Ethnic Cleansing….
    on the basis of his support and approval pf the notorious Shatila Massacres in Beirut during the civil war there

    as it was he died in his bed rather than in prison for war crimes aganst civilians

  32. Only the stupid inept Liberals would think that having a 3 x Triple A ratings, low unemployment, low official interest rates, low inflation and one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the world is a “mess”.

    And one of only three countries that reduced debt and over the period 2012-2013

    One of the few Australian Govts that reduced actual spending

    Yep Australia’s a mess, since Sept 7 2013

  34. AA

    Yep, another false, misleading and silly criteria used purely for their own political benefit… debt.

    Maybe we should go a little more into debt to stimulate the economy?

    Maybe we could encourage car manufacturers to invest in our country and create more jobs?

    How about more infrastructure spending and finish the FTTH NBN for future investment in technology and greater productivity?

    The market knows – Abbott HUGE Fail!

  35. AA

    Abbott must really love his job?

    The moron is relatively young and is meant to be fit for eff sakes.

    Never saw Howard, Hawke, Keating, Gillard or Rudd sleep 😎

  36. [Now do one on Howard… then do one on Rudd.

    It’s gonna take more than 100 Days to fix Labors mess mate.]

    There is no mess to fix. The only problem is the tax cuts of Howard (that Rudd foolishly continued) are tax cuts the country can’t afford except at the top of a boom. Very stupid and damaging of Howard, but he and Costello effectively wasted the boom.

  37. Victoria,

    [AC

    And it will be a best seller too.]

    Yeah, it’ll sell two copies and it’ll be neither you nor I wasting our hard-earned on it.

  38. The History Wars and the !WW
    ____________
    Get ready here for a fight like that in the UK where the Tories,notably Boris Johnston are trying to make the !WW a “noble cause” and despite all the lessons of history want to deny the charges that it was just…”an imperialist trade war” …to quote Dr Mannix..an opponent of war and conscription in 1916-17,,,and of Billy Hughes too

    The Guardian looks at the debate in the UK today

    My quess is that our own reactionaries will take up the same cause
    see The Guardian…below

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/01/no_author/an-imperial-bloodbath-not-a-noble-cause/

  40. Tisme

    You IDIOT Tisme, you really are clueless.

    You take it from where Labor left it, you dope 😆

    Everything out to $1.40

    Tisme in to $3.00 (and looks like closing) 😐

  44. AL

    Maybe, but Abbott could only dream of a feat of avoiding a recession.

    Hell, the Monkey could go close to leading us into one.

  47. Before I exit, I will leave this thought (based on rock solid fact).

    New Zealand is easily outperforming Australia on the markets – under the Abbott government since Sept 7.

    Actually, the ASX really started to yield ground since Nov 21 at the time the spy allegations surfaced and Abbott offended SBY.

    I’d be confident to suggest that we should be sitting at the very least +6% back at post 118 had Labor still been in government.

    Abbott has and is dragging us BEHIND!

    *knock yourselves out 🙂

  49. In April 2013 Forbes rated Australia 11th in the world – Best Countries for Business

    and rated Australia 7th -World’s Happiest Countries 2013

    Let’s see how Forbes rate Australia after a couple of years of the inept Abbott

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