Held since the 2010 election by independent Andrew Wilkie, Denison encompasses Hobart along the western shore of the Derwent River and the hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore Hobart suburbs and southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by Franklin. Like all of Tasmania’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation consistently set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state.
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| Grey and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Andrew Wilkie and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Prior to 2010 the seat was presumed to be safe for Labor, notwithstanding the local strength of the Greens. Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the seat was lost to the 1917 split when incumbent William Laird Smith joined Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. Over subsequent decades it was fiercely contested, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975.
Denison was held through the Fraser years by former state MP Michael Hodgman, who joined his four Tasmanian Liberal colleagues in picking up a swing against the trend of the 1983 election due to local anger over the Franklin dam issue. However, Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated in 1987 by Labor’s Duncan Kerr. Hodgman returned as a state member for Denison in 1992 before eventually bowing out due to poor health in 2010 (he died in June 2013). His son, Will Hodgman, is the state’s current Liberal Opposition Leader.
The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure, giving him consistent double-digit margins starting from 1993. In this he was substantially assisted by preferences from the emerging Greens. The preselection which followed Kerr’s retirement in 2010 kept the endorsement in the Left faction with the nomination of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state Attorney-General Judy Jackson.
What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, who had come to national attention in 2003 when he resigned as an intelligence officer with the Office of National Assessments officer in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent candidate for Denison at the state election in 2010, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.
Wilkie acheived his win in 2010 with just 21.2% of the primary vote, crucially giving him a lead over the Greens candidate who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count 1.2% ahead of Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr. This left Wilkie among a cross bench of five members in the first hung parliament since World War II.
Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority, which the Liberals took seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions from the Liberals that his approach was insincere.
The deal Wilkie reached with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. When the government’s numbers improved slightly after Peter Slipper took the Speaker’s chair, the government retreated from the commitment. Wilkie responded by withdrawing his formal support for the government, although it never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.
Wilkie was comfortably re-elected at the 2013 election with 38.1% of the primary vote, despite an aggressive Labor campaign that included putting him behind the Liberals on how-to-vote cards. Both Labor (down from 35.8% to 24.8%) and the Greens (down from 19.0% to 7.9%) recorded double-digit drops, and most of the northern suburbs booths which had stayed with Labor in 2010 were won by Wilkie. His final margin over Labor after preferences was up from 1.2% to 15.5%, while the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred count recorded a 6.9% swing to the Liberals and a Labor margin of 8.9%.
Perhaps he is just can’t form a coherent argument :P.
[david, Mod deliberately sets herself up as a figure in opposition to and alienated from others on PB ]
DN I agree but not without purpose from her perspective.
Personally I wish ML would post more of what she actually believes and less of stuff aimed at highlighting what she perceives as bias. I don’t think her and my real views are all that far apart.
44 houses burned back o’ Perth?
Isn’t that area the most controlled burnt bit of country in Australia?
For those interested in American Football;
– SF49ers defeat C Panthers 23-10
– Broncos defeat SD Chargers 24-17
49ers and Broncos advance to Conference Championships next week setting up a huge showdown in the AFC between Centre (Broncos) and Diogs (Patriots) to qualify for the Grand Final I mean Super Bowl 😀
david
[DN I agree but not without purpose from her perspective]
I’m happy to grant Mod that much :P, but trying to have a non-adverserial/debate style conversation with Mod is like trying to drive a train without rails. That train really, really, really wants to jump back on those rails.
Unfortunately Mod Lib excels in sheer ignorance and often stupidity.
By the way she has been gelded making her officially a he.
davidwh
I try to avoid reading ML much now, but seems to me that she is more likely to chuckle “hypocrisy” than “bias”.
Times have changed. ABC correspondent in Adelaide reporting about heat clad in swimwear.
No suit and tie equivalent for her.
Maybe its the ABC balance for Abbott in speedos.
We have another 50 point turn around in the equities market.
The ASX again – down 18 points.
The NZ50 continues to smash Australia – up 32 points.
[I try to avoid reading ML much now, but seems to me that she is more likely to chuckle “hypocrisy” than “bias”.]
Lizzie bias is much easier to spell 🙂
Boerwar,
Yes and no. They have controlled burns supposedly every 7 years, but in reality there’s not enough personnel to do that.
The area that was buring was private land, semi rural bushblocks and there’s no controlled burns, just firebreaks….
Horrible weather here over the weekend didn’t help.
I have mixed thoughts about controlled burns – I think if they did them in a more ‘planned’ way they could help. But when they do controlled burns here they regularly get out of control, especially down south of Perth.
Boerwar
The houses were lost in semi rural areas, they are not subject to controlled burns, which is probably part of the problem. controlled burns are for the forests and reserves.
I have sympathy for people who have lost houses but if has to be said that as with everywhere, some of them don’t do themselves any favours with their fire planning.
the Margaret river fire a few years ago was another example. Leaving aside the cause of the fire, in the areas that were burnt The key to many building plans seemed to have been how few trees need to go to build the house. Great, until we get the once Ina hundred years fire.
Perth doesn’t have a great history of big bush fires in the hills, though this is the second major one in a few years. We usually have the odd one every year which might knock off the odd house or two, but fires like in the Eastern states with massive losses and loss of life just don’t happen here.
Different terrain and different weather. Our stinking not weather is not usually accompanied by near gale force winds.
Boerwar said:
44 houses burned back o’ Perth?
Isn’t that area the most controlled burnt bit of country in Australia?
Nope. Well, not the bits that burned anyway. There are extensive controlled burns on public/state (whatever you care to call it) land but much of the area which burned (map at
) is privately owned in large blocks of ~5 acres and upwards. Some owners keep their properties clear. Many do not. As well as fuel load on the ground, you will note, if you look at the linked map in conjunction with Google’s satellite view, that most of the homes in the area are surrounded by trees, with very little clear ground around them. Having fire weeds under one’s eaves is regarded as a essential part of the “Hills Lifestyle”.
I’ll admit to a strong personal interest here as Chez Bogan is about 5 km east of where the fire was finally stopped. Wind direction indicated that it was going to pass north of us, had it continued, but we still had everything packed ready to go if the alerts covering us were upgraded.
The ASX200 continues to yield ground since Labor lost the election on Sept 7.
FACT: Abbott is performing WORSE than when Labor were last in government.
It’s a huge slap in the face to the Liberal Party. The market has lost all confidence in Abbott to manage the economy, prompted by decisions such as to reject the Graincorp acquisition and force GMH to discontinue its operations.
The market also does not like stopping the boats from the potential conflict it may cause to a trading partner.
The sooner Abbott is given the tap the better in the interests of the wealth of all Australians.
Rack Off Monkey
Boewrwar
A very wet spring would have made any burning very difficult to impossible. Usual photos of burnt out houses that had the bush right up to the front and back doors.
[Unfortunately Mod Lib excels in sheer ignorance and often stupidity.
By the way she has been gelded making her officially a he.]
I sense that someone has been burnt a few to many times…
Ellyse Perry’s eight wickets and 100+ runs for the match cannot save Australian women’s cricket team from defeat by the English.
I don’t think you can geld a she.
Geoff @ 616
Well that’s what might happen if one continues to choose to be ignorant.
How many posts does Mod Lib make repeating his futile points?
He is going to be pretty boring eventually.
Besides, Mod Lib has never denied not being gelded 😆
Talking of gelding makes my eyes water 🙁
davidwh
Everything is really male.
I’m leaving that one alone Centre 🙂
http://delimiter.com.au/2014/01/13/mtm-broadband-plan-dogs-breakfast-says-budde/
[Although he has very deep insight into it and is one of the most experienced analysts around, I haven’t always agreed with Paul Budde’s analysis of Australia’s telecommunications industry. However on this particular issue I think we are in very clear agreement. The ‘Multi-Technology Mix” option proffered by NBN Co as a solution to the Coalition’s impossible policy aims is indeed a dog’s breakfast of different technologies and represents a complete lack of solution to Australia’s long-term telecommunications needs. Even if it was delivered successfully (which I highly doubt it will be), it would almost immediately require upgrades. That’s not visionary. That’s just stupid.
Budde’s view is also notable because historically, the analyst has been one of the most open to considering the Coalition’s views on the NBN. The fact that the analyst, like myself, has now taken a broadly unfavourable view of the Coalition’s plans for the project is highly significant; it means that the Coalition’s latest broadband plan has lost it ground with even those who were being open-minded about the legitimacy of its policies. When even those who are openly bi-partisan start publicly criticising your policy, you’ve got a problem. And it’s an especial problem when the criticism is coming from an analyst as experienced as Paul Budde. The Coalition is out on a limb here. I hope it realises that fact very quickly.]
(Various) Thanks for the responses on the control burns – very interesting, IMHO.
The consistent theme seems to be that building a home among the gum trees is only a really good idea if you are prepared to cut down the gum trees.
@AntonyGreenABC: #Redcliffe by-election set for 22 February, background at http://t.co/riULe8M4S1 #qldpol #auspol
Oh, and forgot to say to chezbogan… I am glad it missed you.
lizzie
[The Coalition is out on a limb here. I hope it realises that fact very quickly.]
Unfortunately I get the feeling that the amount of energy *they’ve invested in arguing their alternative and the defence they’ve had to mount for it has only entrenched their position.
*they meaning Turnbull, mostly
As well as increased their resistance to advice offered by others.
poroti
It is getting increasingly difficult to find a low-risk window for control burns.
Rummel would know… which reminds me. Where is rummel? I think he mentioned that they are also increasingly beset by the Great Walls of Bureaucracy… presumably put up by people who reckon that their careers are in danger if the risks are not assessed properly, things get out of hand and properties are destroyed and/or people are killed.
I’ve bumped by Redcliffe by-election post to the top of the page:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/01/13/redcliffe-by-election-preview/
Abbott’s proposed repeal of 8,000 “redundant” laws is nothing of the sort. Redundant laws are repealed every so often as times change and this is more an administrative than a political matter.
Abbott’s proposal on the other hand, is specifically to “slash red and green tape by $1 billion a year” (The Australian). He is not removing redundant legislation, rather he is changing the rules to give his business allies open slather at the expense of you and me.
There is nothing redundant about laws dealing with consumer protection, business monopoly behaviour, pollution reduction or safety of workers.
While China is moving towards greater protection for their population (in the wake of citizen pressure), Abbott is moving in the opposite direction.
Is Abbott planning to remove protection of small businesses from bad behaviour by large corporations – if so this might cost him the small business and tradies’ votes.
Abbott is nothing more than a publicity stunt.
Boerwar
Believe it or not, according to many people in WA the big problem with controlled burns is the smoke that blows over Perth if the wind is in the wrong direction!
That attitude may have softened a little in the wake of the Kelmscott and Margaret River fires
William
You might like to look up Textor’s article in today’s AFR from an attitude survey he carried out. He reports an MOE of 3.1% and then reports a couple of results at 3% and 4%.
rossmcg
I would believe that. My main concern is the long-term biodiversity impacts but that would a minority concern, IMHO.
Centre
The Grid Iron …
You’ll do your money!
[“Expert reviewer” John McLean wrote a climate denialist opinion piece in the Fairfax media — despite its papers vowing not to. Researcher Elaine McKewon asks: just who is John McLean, anyway?]
http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=419275
Boerwar
So the rule for the 21C will be that no one should own rural/semi-rural land unless they clear it?
lizzie
[So the rule for the 21C will be that no one should own]
The rule is that you understand and take your chances.
lizzie
Not so much clear the property as have a sane distance from the bush to their houses. Part two of the rule is that if you do “nestle” your house amongst the trees then do not be surprised at the result of the inevitable bushfire.
“@WeathermanABC: Heatwave: @ 2pm; NSW Wilcannia 42.6, Vic: Swan Hill 40.8, SA: Roxby Downs 43.9, WA: Marble Bar 44.5, ACT 32.7 Qld: Birdsville 41.9”
There was a terrific photo in the wake of the Black Saturday fires – an intact house surrounded by burned bush, as far as the eye could see.
The owner had wanted to live in a bush setting, assessed the risks, and built appropriately.
You can control burn the bush all you like, and put in as wide a firebreak conceivable, and your house can still be burnt in a bushfire. (One firie told me once that the scariest fire he ever saw was across a totally bare paddock).
Some of the areas that scare me most, fire wise, are not bush – they’re suburban allotments, with lots of trees, with cunningly designed streets which all end at one exit road.
There seems to be contradiction here. The most anti-science government in memory is appointing someone who wants more science in the school curriculum.
Perhaps what they want is for the science curriculum to be written by the likes of Andrew Bolt. (Actually this is what seems to be happening in parts of the US.)
[ONE of the architects of the Abbott government’s school curriculum reforms says more students should be encouraged to pursue maths and science.
The coalition on Friday announced that Kevin Donnelly, a former chief of staff to Howard government minister Kevin Andrews, would be one of two men to review the national schools curriculum.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/school-reform-leader-backs-maths-science/story-e6frfku9-1226800364248
Zoomster
I suspect you are describing “Eltham”
Victoria
bingo!!
London getting flogged – raincoat required.
zoomster
Know the area well. Not too far from my neck of the woods
lizzie
The dynamics seem to go a bit like this:
(1) Old local family broad acre holder of freehold bushland cons/bribes local council into letting him subdivide bush into 5-10 acre lots. These are usually up past the back paddocks, preferably at the end of the a steepish, single lane or windy dirt road. With a bit of luck there is a national park or a production forest or a plantation even further back as a selling point.
(2) People from city love it and move in, minimising any disturbance to bush – after all, they love the bush.
(3) Fires come near and the new home owners demand that the national park/production forest/plantation be managed, control burnt to buggery etc, etc, to reduce the danger to their homes.
(4) Some people have a large appetite for risk or not much sense and leave lots of gum trees, undergrowth and fuel loads on their five acre blocks.
(5) Believe Tony Abbott and the entire National Party and ignore global warming as being based on climate science change is crap.
(6) Others get rid of everything and end up with a short grass prairie effect.
(7) Biodiversity is reduced by their clearing, their introduction of weeds and their introduction of cats and dogs. They don’t care. They own the place, right?
(8) Sooner or later, an unstoppable wildfire comes, 100 degree heat, 100kph winds, no humidity – mad scrambles for safety down single road, mad defences, some good luck some bad luck – lots of human interest stories on the MSM involving people weeping about their pets, photographs and each other. Firies are the heroes.
(9) Blame stupid, intolerant and rabid Greenies for mess.
(10) Hold coronials and royal commissions so that the legal fraternity can earn a bit from the cycle. The same recommendations that come out of every coronial and enquiry are repeated.
(11) Demand that the Government spends lots of money providing succour and support to the ‘victims’ – including cleaning up any asbestos they might have used building their houses and sheds (latest NSW fires).
(12) Criticise governments for not doing enough.
(13) Everyone pays higher insurance premiums. (IAG increased its re-insurance cover by 12% this year.)
(14) Shire Council jacks up rates to replace infrastructure.
(15) after a suitable gap of time peoples’ memories fade, a new bunch of ignoranti move in…
repeat and rinse.
[The head of the Indonesian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Mahfudz Siddiq, has said that the lifeboat ploy means that he Australian government plans to become a people smuggler itself, despatching boat loads of unauthorised immigrants into another country’s territorial waters. And, as the Australian Navy has been used to repel boats from Indonesia, so the Indonesian navy may have to repel the boats from Australia. The situation could escalate quickly and very dangerously. Suddenly Kevin Rudd’s pre-election warnings of a possible military confrontation between to the two countries look a lot less fanciful.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-13/maccallum-operation-sovereign-borders/5196708
Boerwar
I recognise the narrative!