Seat of the week: McMillan

After a long career as a marginal seat, the West Gippsland electorate of McMillan has bucked the statewide trend of recent decades by moving decisively to the Liberals.

McMillan extends through West Gippsland from Pakenham in Melbourne’s eastern outskirts to the western reaches of the Latrobe Valley, and along the coast from Wonthaggi through Wilsons Promontory to Welshpool. It covered broadly similar territory on its creation in 1949, the area having previously been covered by Gippsland and to a smaller extent by Flinders. The redistribution following the expansion of parliament in 1984 caused it to lose its coastal territory while extending further eastwards along the Princes Highway to Traralgon, which was eventually reversed by the redistribution of 2004. The transfer of Traralgon and neighbouring Latrobe Valley towns to Gippsland on the latter occasion substantially weakened Labor, and the seat has been held by the Liberals ever since.

Conservative strength in the rural areas kept McMillan in Liberal hands from 1949 until 1980, barring a National/Country Party interruption from 1972 to 1975 when it was won and then lost by Arthur Hewson. However, post-war growth in the Latrobe Valley strengthened Labor over time, leading to a close result in 1974, a relatively mild anti-Labor swing in 1975, and finally a win for Labor candidate Barry Cunningham in 1980. Cunningham was swept out a decade later with the statewide backlash that cost Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, but he recovered the seat by a 0.4% margin in 1993. This was not enough to save him from even the relatively modest swing Labor suffered in Victoria at the 1996 election, when Russell Broadbent gained the seat for the Liberals with a swing of 2.5%.

Broadbent first came to parliament in 1990 as member for Corinella, a seat to the immediate west of McMillan which existed from 1990 to 1996. He was defeated at the 1993 election by Labor’s Alan Griffin, who moved to his present home of Bruce with the abolition of Corinella. Broadbent returned as member for McMillan three years later, before again experiencing the sharp end of life in a marginal seat with his defeat 25-year-old Labor candidate Christian Zahra in 1998. Zahra added 2.3% to his margin against the trend of the 2001 election, before emerging a big loser when his electorate traded Morwell and Traralgon for conservative farming and coastal areas around Leongatha and Wonthaggi. Zahra was left needing a 2.9% to retain his seat in 2004, but a 2.1% swing the other way saw it change hands for the fifth time in six elections.

Thus began a remarkable third stint in parliament for Broadbent, who went on to perform very strongly in limiting the swings against him to 0.2% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010, before securing his hold with a swing of 7.6% in 2013. He has been assisted by a trend against Labor in the Latrobe Valley and surrounding areas, which has been equally evident at state level. Broadbent has failed to win promotion, but has generated headlines on a number of occasions with his liberal positions on asylum seekers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,364 comments on “Seat of the week: McMillan”

Comments Page 5 of 68
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  1. [As mentioned previously, middle classes such as myself pay to see a doctor and avoid bulk billing clinics like the plague already.]

    I don’t think there is anything middle class about you.

  2. So far this co-payment thing is just a brain-fart by a former advisor to Tony Abbott. It first appeared back in October, in the Oz, but no-one noticed.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/coalition-urged-to-help-make-public-system-viable-by-ending-free-gp-visits/story-fn59nokw-1226741991387

    Then Samantha Maiden dug up that story, asked Terry Barnes for a copy of his report and did the thing for the Sunday Smelly. All we know is in those two articles, and we don’t know much.

    Mr Barnes is involved with the Australian Centre for Health Research – ACHR – for which he wrote the piece. It’s not available online, which is why Ms Maiden tweeted him to ask him to email her a copy.

    The real nasties here are the ideas floating around on the ACHR site.
    http://www.achr.com.au/
    Did I mention that organisation is funded by “large and small health funds, private hospital groups and other health sector organisations.’ They have an agenda and are very keen on the Dutch health system which involves mandatory private insurance.

    Forget all the heart-rending stories about unemployed single mums not being able to afford $5 for their sickly babes to see a doctor. Start worrying about the bigger problem – exactly what this government intends to do to our health system.

    I don’t know what’s behind the story. If it was a distraction from some new act of bastardry by the government then it wasn’t a good choice of unicorn. It’s just given Labor a very large government-whacking club. It’s odd that both pieces should appear in the Murdoch press.

  3. Sean, you are not middle class. Real coalition supporters don’t need to pay to see a doctor. They are either doctors themselves or have relatives who are doctors. You are a mere want-to-be Tory that will never make it and will only ever be smears at by real coalition supporters and tolerated because without smucks like you they could never get into power.

  5. GG

    No hysteria on my part. The definition is clear.

    The point is when does a health care system cease to be Universal?

    Following what WWP is on anout would mean the end of Universal Care. Remember Labor defending Kerry Packer’s right to use the public system because the health system is universal.

  6. There is political logic in Labor going all out over the “great big new tax on the sick”.

    Firstly, it undermines the Abbott argument about abolishing “great big new taxes” introduced under the previous government.

    Secondly, it frightens older people, just as Abbott frightened people about the “carbon tax”. Raising healthcare costs does not go down too well in 2GB land – on 24 December the resident shockjock on 2GB poured vitriol on the announcement of the government approving a 6+% increase in private health insurance premiums. The $6 GP co-payment is likely to get a lot of talkback callers very agitated in the new year.

  7. http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/why-the-war-against-nature-is-getting-worse/5178596

    *Warning. Content may upset the sensitive.*

    [There’s a crisis of epic proportion occurring on our planet. The war against nature has become a prolonged looting spree—plundering terrestrial and oceanic wildlife on a global tear never witnessed before. What kind of a world are we leaving for our children?

    The destruction of nature including illegal harvesting of forests for an unquenchable palm oil market and trafficking of animal parts is valued in excess of $300 billion annually; it now rivals that of drugs, arms and human trafficking, combined. No wonder organised crime is running this lucrative life-ending business.]

  8. Guytaur,

    You just love to run around in ever decreasing circles of meaningless rhetoric. So, I suppose it happens when you finally disappear up your own backside.

  9. GG

    You should learn not to project.

    You will not the definition of universal has not changed today. Its the same as it was yesterday. Its the same as it was when Universal studos decided on their name.

  13. Boy are you people going to be jealous of me in a few weeks time.
    I am going to send this letter to PM Tony Abbott and I’m confident he will accede, happily, to my request.

    Dear Mr Abbott, Oh most statesmanlike of persons,

    I am suggesting to you that your government badly needs advisors in areas of critical concern to the people of Australia not to mention the COALition itself.

    For example, defence policy needs the informed logical advice of a person well qualified to do so.
    Similarly matters of tax reform are crying out for erudite input.

    May I suggest myself as an eminently suitable person to provide such advice in either of those spheres, or any other you have going at the moment for that matter. Obviously Human Rights and Business are already occupied but I’m sure, once you read my qualifications you will find something suitable for my talents.

    I am a great believer of the benign effect upon our human endeavours of the fairies that live at the bottom of the garden. Those who reside in my garden, and I talk to them in depth most nights, have enlightened me in matters of social and economic policy.
    You, and your government, can have access to their wisdom via myself as a [well paid] intermediary by a judicious appointment.

    Looking forward to hearing some good news from you soon, you know where I live.
    See you later mate,
    fredex.

  15. It does seem like Murdoch is currently applying the pressure on Abbott to bring in policies that Murdoch wants.

    Both the $6 co-payment on bulk billed GP/ER visits and today’s Newman outburst have been Murdoch media headline material.

  17. GG

    I see you descending to personal abuse again. I wonder why you think that is helpful to any points you are trying to make.

    Always the best arguments win on their merits not by abuse.
    This is why I try and avoid abuse.

  18. Guytaur,

    And so your cycle of meaningless rhetoric and sanctimonious humbug begins afresh.

    I’ll get off here.

    I know the pleasure was all yours.

  21. Crikey was on to the Newmans months ago.
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/06/14/liberal-links-to-anti-wind-farm-fight-multiply/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

    [Yesterday, The Guardian Australia reported that Maurice Newman, who will head the Coalition’s Business Advisory Council in the event of a Coalition victory on September 14, vowed he would agitate to scrap the bipartisan Renewable Energy Target (RET), which mandates 20% of renewable energy by 2020. Newman is a former chairman of the ABC and the Australian Securities Exchange. He is a climate change sceptic and is a long-time supporter of anti-wind farm campaigns. In April, Newman hosted a meeting of anti-wind farm group the Crookwell District Landscape Guardians, where he warned the Coalition might not bend to his demands.]

  22. Nice comments by Flannery 😆
    [“Professor Newman’s gouty festive season ramblings might easily be forgiven as the product of an extra glass or two of port,” Professor Flannery said.

    “But as they come from the Prime Minister’s chief business adviser they need to be taken seriously.

    “As the government formulates its climate policies, we’ve got to be guided by facts. Clearly… Maurice Newman is not.

    “His contribution is entirely unhelpful.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-business-adviser-says-australia-taken-hostage-by-climate-change-madness-20131231-303qw.html#ixzz2p1ld2W6x

  23. “@senthorun: My new year resolution. RT @BiIIMurray: Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.”

  25. [“@senthorun: My new year resolution. RT @BiIIMurray: Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.”]

    Some will even claim there is an aspect of the definition of universal that excludes a $5 payment by those who can afford it.

  27. WWP

    You cite an exemption. That very exemption means it is not universal.

    That is fairly simple. Universal is no exemption. You cannot get arounf the definition no matter how you try.

  28. Thanks Victoria (188). I will ask her. I can still see how some people will fall between the cracks. It”’ take just one person to be turned away.

  29. [That very exemption means it is not universal.]

    It isn’t an exemption from universal, everyone in Australia is still entitled to health care. The only difference is a portion of people who can still find a bulk billing dr, and who can afford it, have to pay $5, where now they pay nothing. For those who can’t afford it, they still pay nothing. For those who don’t go to a bulk billing practice they may or may not have to pay a $5 bigger gap now. There is no exclusion of anyone from the health system. Thus the health system is still very much and totally a universal system. It is just not a free universal system anymore for those who can pay. It is really very simple please do keep up.

  30. My wife and I go to a local clinic in the main street where three young doctors work and give singularly good service…we can always see the one we prefer as often as we wish and seldom have more than a days wait ro see him…and he is a most rigourous young practitioner and most concerned and helpful

    This snobby nonsense from Tisme is par for the course I know but most irrating and stupid and a waste of time

  31. WWP

    Universal Care means all who pay their taxes have access to bulk billing.
    Any cost problems are dealt with by either reducing the health budget or increasing the levy.

    Note its the Doctors who choose and patients shop around.

    Your proposal reduces universal coverage probably fatally as the LNP want.

  33. [Universal Care means all who pay their taxes have access to bulk billing.]

    No. We have done this a couple of hours ago. That isn’t universal care, it is universal FREE care, and I think you yourself made the very convincing argument that it is silly to talk of free health care.

    Universal health care means that every Australian can access the health system. So long as those who cannot afford $5 do not have to pay the fee then there is no class who is excluded from our healthcare system by virtue of the $5 fee. Thus the $5 fee does not exclude anyone from our health system. Thus the system is still universal.

  35. Posted Tuesday, December 31, 2013 at 3:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor should point out that middle and high income earners already pay a fortune for medicare through their wages.

    1.5-2.5 % of taxable personal income is not a fortune when it is realised that healthcare makes up 9% of GDP.
    Middle class bludgers like Sean are the major problem with any “universal” healthcare system. By not providing appropriately for their own health they use resources that could best be directed to the disadvantaged.
    Medicare has always been a form of middle class welfare – this was recognised by the Hawke government’s attempt at co-payment and more recently by Rudd/Gillard using the tax system to lure the middle classes into private insurance.

  37. [WWP

    Wrong. Taxes pay for the bulk billing. Nothing free about it.]

    That is what I was saying, you’ve found the one thing we both agreed on for the last 3 hours and are saying I’m wrong. I’m not sure what you are drinking but I’d love some.

  39. Bemused and Wewant Paul re Palestine’——–
    ———–
    The inability of many(not all) zionists to see the terrible suffering of the Palestinians under occupation..and the damge it had done to Isaelin the world’s eyes…is startling..but there are many Jews who are aware and have a great concern

    The actress Miriam Margoyles(seen here in the Miss Fisher series) formed a UK organisation called”Enought” made up of Jews angered by Netanyahu’s policies on the West Bank and Gaza…and the 90 year old pieoneeer zionist and writer Uri Avenery is a stern critic.
    In New York there is a Jewish website “Mondoweiss” updated daily on all such matters and brilliant,,and anti-Likud

    I’m sure hard-liners like Psephos and his former boss Danby wiould disapprove greatly

    The Likud hardliners now have a website denouncing such Jews called”Self-Hating Jews “listing 8000 notably Jews who DON’T support Netanyahu and they are constantly attacke

    so who said people learn from their own historical hardships

  41. [The right wing loves to bandy the word free about when talking Medicare.]

    But unless you are including it yourself in the definition of ‘universal’ such that when you say ‘universal’ your really mean ‘universal FREE’ healthcare then whether or not it is free is irrelevant to whether the system is universal. I can see what you are doing you are trying to imply the word free, but you can’t use it because you think it is a weakness in your argument. Reality is you don’t actually have any argument at all.

  42. deb

    [nd he is a most rigourous young practitioner and most concerned and helpful]

    Lots of them decide that if they’re good at and have the patient throughput that doing bulk-billing is the go as the overhead of handing credit-cards, cash payments, etc all goes away. All the practice staff have to do is make sure they keep an accurate log of patients and get Medicare numbers recorded accurately.

  43. I would like to argue with Tisme’s proposition that all bulk-billing doctors are lower quality. I have no doubt that there are clinics where the 5 min service with whoever’s rostered on is the norm, but as an example, our rural practice moved to the Easyclaim system some time ago and it made absolutely no difference to their patient service.

    However, it was pointed out earlier today (Leone?) that
    [If a practitioner bulk bills for a service, the practitioner undertakes to accept the relevant Medicare benefit as full payment for the service. Additional charges for that service cannot be raised.]
    so I do not see how $5-6 upfront charge would be legal atm.

  44. Gosh there’s a fair bit of sniping and tenseness in here today. And now Psephos is being baited as a “hardline zionist” for heavens sake when he isn’t even here. Is it a full moon or are people just bored?

  45. Acerbic Conehead 195
    re treatment of Kids in UK orphanages
    ______________
    You have obviously missed the several major docos on the fate of British kids sent to Australia after WW2…both on BBC and shown here too

    I saw at least two and they were very critical of the actions of churches and local UK authorities and the treatment of the kids in Australia later

    One looked at a farm-school scheme in Australia where the boys were realy enslaved and treated terribly…and much abuse of all kinds
    so look around … it all there already been done,and you implicity sly suggestion that the Catholic Church was being”done over” when others weren’t… is just plain wrong

    how could you not have seen them ?

  47. One thing the Newman Govt is looking at is charging private patients who use a public “bed” in a hospital.

    The resistance comes from the fact that if you pay the Medicare Levy you are entitled to be treated in a public hospital.

    But it will be coming if Lib Premiers get the OK from Tony for the data matching.

  48. WWP

    Bulk billing means you pay the tax office your share no matter how many times you have visited a doctor.

    Co payment means you pay some of the cost of your visit like any other bill the rest through taxes.

    Private means you pay all of it yourself.

    Universal Care means every citizen can walk into a doctors practice without having to worry about cost because taxes cover it. The citizen pays via taxes.

    The reality is you have no argument because you want to accept the star of a change where the patient has to worry about cost before going to the doctor.

  50. lizzie:

    The best GP I ever encountered worked at the Aboriginal Medical Service in Perth. He was extremely thorough, patient, never condescending like most physicians can be, and incredibly cute into the bargain.

    It simply doesn’t follow that only the best medically trained practitioners work in private practice.

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