The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.
This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.
mexican
And you’re an expert because…??
I’m not claiming to be an expert. I’m using my own experience to demonstrate that what you describe doesn’t happen – people with short term conditions don’t get disability payments.
As for your contention that people who acquire disabilities deserve different treatment to those who have lifelong disabilities, remember that no one plans to acquire a disability.
If you were told, “You’re going to have twenty years of earning a wage and then suddenly, one day, you’re not going to be able to work anymore” then you might have a point. But people who acquire disabilities (and I’ve dealt with many of them on a personal basis, helping them access services etc) haven’t planned for them, and often find themselves in quite desperate situations as a result.
Geez people, the argument over disabilities is just another example of the meanness and nastiness of the present government, of demonising a group cos they can.
Add the disabled to the list of ‘minorities’ this COALition likes to treat with contempt.
My previous list consisted of – workers, unionists, asylum seekers, indigenous people, women, gays, greenies – now add ‘disabled’.
Tomorrow or the day after they’ll add yet another group to demonise.
Hang on its been a while since they’ve had a go at – single mums, dole bludgers – that will have to be rectified.
Oh and public servants – who have I missed?
Oh its obvious, the liukes of Rupert and Gina and the IPA stalwarts.
@Zoomster/2751
The Legislation and surrounding parts that are connected to it is basically shit, and the Politicians know it, that’s why they are making it even harder.
Zoomster
I know no one plans to become disabled yet some people do.
We have an element of the political community who like to ramble on that there are rorts.
So is it time to divide DSP into two, one for people that are born with and one for those that develop one.
The priorities of each group is essentially different.
People that have a workplace accident or have a nervous breakdown are seeking treatment.
People born with a disability, particularly people who’s disability is mild often dream of having the same opportunities which able bodied people enjoy.
They have to fight a system which works against them from childhood and is tied up in knots over claims of rorts which for the most part don’t exist.
Get a small disability pension from Veteran Affairs.
Much prefer to call it COMPENSATION for a War Caused Injury.
Point of above is quite sure many would like to call a Pension COMPENSATION due to many reasons or causes ,born with one is different and worked with some for 6 years at “Coonac”
I think that this lot led by Abbott are showing just how out of touch, mean, tricky and heartless they really are by attacking people with a disability.
They want to give the likes of Sarah Murdoch $75k for having a baby yet want to take a couple of hundred a week of those who are less unfortunate.
It’s ridiculous!
By the way personally, I wouldn’t want to employ someone with a disability for productivity purposes. I think that someone without a disability would more than likely be more efficient and productive than someone with a disability.
That’s why people with a disability can share in a greater proportion of the prosperity from that productivity.
Again ideology from Abbott wanting to make life difficult for some.
Move on Monkey and go collect more revenue from your tax evading mates at the top end!
Cantre
That is the other thing sadly due to the disability some do find work harder and are unable to perform the task yet when they listen to the political commentary all they hear is o the disabled are rorters.
@MB/2754
So what if people who have disabilities that have born with and get disabilities later on due to Health/Work etc?
What you are creating is more paper work, which essentially costs more money in the long run.
And there will be people that will be classed under both payments, how will this be delt with, will they be granted both payments?
I suggest you read up on “income management” policy that Labor trialed, it essentially costed $4000-$7000 for every tax payer to implement.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3893069.htm
“LEXI METHERELL: Income management is also on the Government’s radar. It was implemented in 2007 in Northern Territory Indigenous communities and is now being trialled in several places around Australia.”
“CASSANDRA GOLDIE: I’m very concerned if the Government is considering putting people with disability onto income management. There is no evidence that this has worked for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families, and yet on the other hand it’s costing between $4,000 and $7,000 per person. ”
Which this Goverment is very keen to expand on, yet costing you and everyone else on PB more money than simple payments to the DSP.
[Two years and nine months, actually. I’m pleased, Sean, that you’re keeping up your record of having never once made a factually correct statement here.]
Don’t be silly.. he will win the next election and there then maybe a peaceful, planned transfer to a new Malcolm Turnbull Prime Ministership.
Zoidy
In Victoria Income Management is already a reality for about 10,000 people that have been issued with Administration Orders.
I don’t think the government needs to change the current system as there is already processes in place for people that need their financial and legal affairs administrated.
[Two years and nine months, actually. I’m pleased, Sean, that you’re keeping up your record of having never once made a factually correct statement here.]
Sean might be closer to the truth. If things don’t look good for Abbott, I can see him delaying an election to late November/early December.
(2016, that is)
beemer
Not only that, as you may be aware, it is actually beneficial for the economy to have at least 5% on the lowest weekly earnings – it keeps inflation under control.
It’s an ideological beat up by the moronic right wingers.
They should be crucifying CEO’s with all their millions in bonuses and board of directors for nearly sending companies to the wall 😡
Centre
I have never heard the following before
least 5% on the lowest weekly earnings – it keeps inflation under control.
@Sean/2759
Hahaha, Turnbull, now the liberals starting their own leadershit rumors.
[So is it time to divide DSP into two, one for people that are born with and one for those that develop one.
The priorities of each group is essentially different.]
How do the basic capacity and needs of somebody born with X problem differ from those of somebody who acquires the same problem later in life?
Surely any system must be based on the specific capacity and needs of each individual, not how they came by them.
I am genuinely mystified by your claim.
@MB/2760
Except when the Coalition Goverment take away the legal affairs, as they have done with the other sectors at state level.
Peta’s pet monkey is an embarrassment to the position of PM, especially on the world stage.
Putin even refused to acknowledge the rude misfit 😆
They should switch to Turnbull in the best interests of the country asap.
beemer
Yep, full employment counter productive – accelerates inflation 😎
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/disability-groups-oppose-tighter-pension-rules-20131222-2zt16.html#ixzz2oHqP2ANW
Australian Council of Social Service chief executive Cassandra Goldie was concerned the government review was ”more about budget savings” than support for people with disabilities.
”We haven’t seen any detail,” Dr Goldie said, adding she had not been consulted either.
This is nothing new from the liberals.
Lack of consultation is their forte.
Fred and Bemused and others re the 1930ies
___________________________________
I agree re Michael Cathcart’s book on the early fascists groups he looks at in “Guarding the National Tuckshop”…. a great treatment of the period
Also could I recommend a brilliant recent book.. “Nazi Dreamtime”,,,by a Melb writer/academic David Bird …. looking at the Australia First Movement and a group in Sydney grouped around a literary magazine”The Publicist” and run by “Inky ” Stephenson.a brilliant literary figure but misguided and all were admirers of Hitler et.al;…and another book in the same group “The Puzzled Patriots”(odd name!) by Muirden (now out of print)
“Nazi Dreamtime “is a remarkable recent study of Stephenson’s and The Australia First Party in the late 30ies and 40ies and their fate in 1942
I recall some time ago having a “debate ” here with Psephos(if that’s possible!!) re the idea that fascism was ever a threat here…he took the view that this was largely exagerated by the Left at the time…when the Communist party was very active here and he is given to dismiss that view… …but reading “Nazi Dreamtime” was a revelation to me and I can recommend it
Among the pro-Nazi group for a time was the writer Miles Franklin …whose names is remember in a Literary Prize to this day
Just Me
In general terms i was trying to think of a dividing point between the two (Born & develop later on) as the current debate being run by merit Andrews is focused on people that become disabled or suffer a medical condition.
A person born with a disability will grow up with that disability, the disability to that person is their normal and they become familiar with a society that treats them differently.
A person who is able bodied will grow up as a able bodied person in the able bodied society so their experience of the world is different.
Injuries and medical conditions do vary from person to person and will require different treatments.
If we had a more mature debate in Canberra there would be no reason for such a debate.
http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1988863/abbott-to-chop-forest-deal/?cs=95
This bastard government is going to wreck Tasmania. All this will do is reignite the forestry civil war that preceded the Forest Agreement. Just as the Franklin dam issue did in the eighties, and the pulp mill shambles more recently.
We are already struggling, we’re a small state and this will just make things worse. A lot of forestry people have already been paid substantial sums to leave the industry, the Triabunna mill is closed, the markets have declined. What’s the point? Are they trying to wipe us out all together?
I have never known normally equable people to be as angry as they are now. And I can honestly say that there is a real hatred growing for this government, much worse than the feeling against the Howard government. A mixture of fury and despair that I can see being taken onto the streets. And as far as I’m concerned, the sooner the better.
Just Me
I’m not sure if i answered that fully.
Centre@2768
Honest to god, I don’t see why people think Turnbull would be any better than Abbott!! I actually consider him to be worse. With Abbott you actually see what you get (if you put some bare minimum of effort into it). With Turnbull what you get is a duplicitous sleazeball (ute-gate anyone??), quite adept at pretending to be something he definitely is not. Everything he said he supports(ed) he basically reneged on. And don’t let me start on how much of a hypocrite and scheming bastard he is with his work on NBN. The narcissist of the first order, the worst of the whole lot!!!
This attack on the disability is probably a pipe opener for Abbott to weasel his way out of the NDIS in one way or another?
Slav G
Yes I know where you are coming from and it’s hard to disagree with your comments at 2775.
But the Monkey as PM, it’ is a joke!
OK, who else have they got; Hockey is a big dope, Bishop is truly useless and Morrison lacks the maturity.
Maybe Hunt, I actually like Hunt 😯
@Centre/2776
See what happens with NSW and NDIS.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-07/nsw-ndis-funding-deal-residential-disability-centres/5077156
deblonay
On the bright side the 1930’s had some damn fine blues music .
[‘Mississippi County Farm Blues’ SON HOUSE (1930) Delta Blues ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bT4CjPDm_c
Centre,
Unfortunately for the country (until the next election) they don’t have anyone that would be better than Abbott, and that is IMHO. Hockey and Turnbull while both liked by the electorate (and again I certainly don’t agree with people’s opinion here) are quite incompetent, or worse easily swayed by the vested interests, when it comes to their jobs in government. They miiiiiight learn how to do it during the next three years. In the end I’d rather have someone who is willing to do what is right for the people and the country and I think neither one of them is capable of it.
So, I’d prefer the libs stick with the embarrassment of a PM that we presently have so that people can make the right choice at the next election instead of voting on a glorified popularity contest that would happen if Turnbull or Hockey are leading.
zoidlord @ 2778
Maybe Shorten will have something to say about that?
Liberal = out of touch, mean, tricky and heartless!
Slav G
Yep, Abbott should be easier to beat than Turnbull or Hockey.
But at the risk that Abbott may win again, perish the thought but it could happen, I’d prefer that they got rid of him.
To steal the phrase from the PM I wish I had a pleasure of seeing in action “This is the election loss ALP had to have” for it to grow. It might also be a “Government Australia had to have” for it to know how to value and recognise how good we have it here (or to be more accurate, HAD before this government). Unfortunately for most of the people it is going to be a very hard lesson, but learn from it they will 🙂
I leave in eternal hope Centre, in hope Australians don’t repeat the mistake of the 2013 election :-)!!
I live* not leave
[ So, I’d prefer the libs stick with the embarrassment of a PM that we presently have so that people can make the right choice at the next election instead of voting on a glorified popularity contest that would happen if Turnbull or Hockey are leading. ]
The difference is that Abbott is not just embarrassing – he is a fruit loop of the first order, with a political agenda that could bring this country to it’s knees, or at the very least severely disadvantage those segments of the population that Abbott and Pell think do not deserve to benefit from their “guided” democracy.
On the other hand, Turnbull and Hockey are simple run of the mill incompetents. We’ve had plenty of those before, and I’d rather have either one over Abbott any day.
poroti@2779
True porotti.
I just wish the recording techniques of the time had been better.
Sun House featured quite a bit in the movie about the life of Robert Johnson, “Can’t You Hear The Wind Howl”. Keb Mo played Robert Johnson.
So with artists like Keb Mo, the tradition is alive.
SA Newspoll
2PP 53-47 to Liberal
Labor 33, Liberal 40, Greens 10, Others 17
Weatherill Satisfied 43, Dissatisfied 37
Marshall Satisfied 43, Dissatisfied 21
Better Premier Weatherill 40, Marshall 29
Oct-Dec 2013 874 sample
poroti, there was lots of other good music in the ’30s with people like Woody Guthrie and Pete Seeger for example.
Here’s Woody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4YKUJZI5Bg
@James J/2788
Interesting, Liberals win in SA on preferences, basically on the edge.
Despite Better Premier Weatherill.
[This attack on the disability is probably a pipe opener for Abbott to weasel his way out of the NDIS in one way or another?]
Fulfilling an election promise more like.
[On the other hand, Turnbull and Hockey are simple run of the mill incompetents. We’ve had plenty of those before, and I’d rather have either one over Abbott any day.]
Yep me too. If we have to have Liberal governments, then bumbling, do-nothing governments are preferable.
[@James J/2788
Interesting, Liberals win in SA on preferences, basically on the edge.
Despite Better Premier Weatherill.]
Also note the poll covers Oct-Dec, thus much was taken before the Holden announcement.
@Confessions/2791
Except jobs promise.
[A former police officer has lost his court battle to keep from public view CCTV footage of him allegedly brutalising detainees at the Broome Police station in March and April.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/20459951/broome-police-conduct-criticised/
The footage is very damning, esp from the 1 minumte mark onwards. All I can say is thank goodness this policeman is no longer in the police force
I’ve personally witnessed people with mental illness treated in similar fashion by WA police. Those cases seem to skirt under the radar, thankfully this one hasn’t.
zoid:
Abbott promised to crack down on the DSP. We all believed him on that front, surely?
bemused
Lordy how things have changed over the last 100 years……….Not 😆
[Billy Murray – The Alcoholic Blues 1919]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWlNXLCBfTA
Poroti/Bemused/and otherf
_____________
I am no fan of Blues but like the old Dixieland Jazz and love Cole Porter and Gershwin”’saw a great performance of”Porgy and Bess ” in New York.last year..a memorable night !
Re Guthrie…I was in Santa Barbara a few years ago when there was an anti-war Iraq demo…and an elderly lady I spoke to said Guthries”This Land is My Land” is a clssic song of the American Left.,..and there is such a thing..brave people too in the main
poroti
Have you ever heard C.W. Stoneking?
Good grief, it’s now making national news via the ABC online!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-23/broome-officer-treatment-of-detainees-criticised/5173154