The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.
This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.
bemused [and others]
Have you read Michael Cathcart’s [he of the ABC Book and Arts Show on RN] book on the New Guard – “Defending the National Tuckshop – Australia’s Secret Army Intrigue of 1931” pub Penguin , Melbourne, 1988?
Fellas with guns running around Victoria protecting dams and Post offices from commies, unionists, riff raff and Catholics until they woke up that there was no danger just a noisy right wing bunch of loonies [including some famous people].
Been doing a bit of snooping on The Hunts Airbus follies.
The Airbus C319 that flies from Hobart to the Antarctic is a special plane. It is a shortened C320.
It has CASA approved landing skis for landing on snow airfields and flies from Antarctic stations to the US as well as Hobart.
Its great strength is it can fly people from Hobart to our bases in the Antarctic and pull out if the weather is bad and fly all they way home, no worries.
It has a 60 minute window to make this decision, bad weather nick off home save the skis for another trip.
This must mean that its operational time in whale mode is less than 60 minutes depending on its deviation off course. It may never get to where it needs without jeapordising a safe landing.
Of all the stunts this one is a prize winner. reminds me of the song “Watching the stunts of the Hunts in their punts just feckin about on the river” .
ruawake
Looking forward to improving the stunt by having Abbott “flying” the plane with Hunt as co-pilot.
After all, he “drove” a big truck, so the man can do anything!!
I must commend Dutton for the late garbage run, announcing private health insurance increases the day before Christmas eve. Plus blaming the ALP for his decisions.
I guess there is tomorrow for Pyne to say something dumb.
[However, the government says its annual costs will begin to fall dramatically in about two years, suggesting the current wave of refugees will have dissipated.]
Considering that at the moment, international troops are engaged in pulling OUT of Afghanistan, id suggest that may turn out to be a brave assumption.
fredex@2701
Thanks fredex, I wasn’t aware of that book. I will chase it up.
Now lets see what categories granddad fitted.
He was a unionist, a catholic, not a commie but an ALP member (almost as bad you know). 😉
lizzie
[After all, he “drove” a big truck, so the man can do anything!!]
Vlad Putin II in action!
Just me,
[Nice touch. 🙂
Can I put in a request for God Rest Ye Merry Turkey Bones?
All done in the best parsible taste, of course.]
Glad you liked it.
Are you referring to that Turkeys guy who spat the dummy earlier?
If so, he seems to be of a nervous disposition. Maybe the prospect of his impending fate is making him not so resurgent.
AC
[re you referring to that Turkeys guy who spat the dummy earlier?]
Life is hard for those who can put it out but not take it.
Guy on 24 from Consumers Assoc (I think) has already said that Dutton has not followed due process for setting the new PH insurance increases. Obviously little consultation and Dutton thinks he’s smart to get it out early and blame Labor.
[http://www.homeinsulationroyalcommission.gov.au/About/Pages/TermsofReference.aspx]
Interesting the Terms of Reference.
Wonder if one of the recommendations will wind up being that the Feds should be responsible for OH&S on Fed funded projects, rather than the States in which the projects occur??
They have worded it with “sufficient regard” in there. Seems to me that with OH&S being State, the Fibs may not get the findings out of this they are after. They will have the Mordor Media team spinning for all they are worth of course and i suspect that is all this inquiry is aimed at. To give them something to yap about.
The uprising in Southern Sudan is worrying (Yep they have visa on arrival in Malaysia and Indonesia). I guess people escaping having their heads chopped off would find Manus a place to stop running.
Rex Douglas
1) The Commissioner follows the terms of reference set by the gummint. He does not decide them so it is of no value for you to quote what he said as evidence of the scope, as you have now done several times.
2) What the Commissioner was saying was that he will not rehear evidence given in other tribunals ie the coronial inquests. He will consider the CI evidence (which was given on oath), and incorporate it in his considerations.
3) This is precisely what is happening in the Sexual Abuse RC. The Victorian and NSW Commissions of Enquiry were already underway and the RC Commissioners will incorporate all evidence (given on oath) from those enquiries in their considerations.
CTar1,
[AC: are you referring to that Turkeys guy who spat the dummy earlier?
Life is hard for those who can put it out but not take it.]
Yes, Tones being on the nose seems to have affected his morale.
Heat, kitchen and all that.
But then, heat plus kitchens wouldn’t be the most conducive of milieus for turkeys.
No exceptions except when exceptions are exceptionally made.
[An asylum seeker with severe intellectual disabilities who was separated from her mother will be moved into community detention.
The immigration minister, Scott Morrison, has announced the woman, aged in her 30s, will be placed in community detention and reunited with her family, after the minister received advice this was the “best course of action” for her care.
But Morrison warned that there were “no exemptions to the government’s policy of offshore processing”]
AC
[the most conducive of milieus for turkeys.]
A good part of one done over here on Sunday.
A second lot coming up Wednesday.
😀
[Interesting times. I wish some memorabilia had been preserved by the family.]
My Mum’s nephew was a Labor lawyer involved in all this too.
He did some work behind the scenes when the attempt was made to kidnap Lang and as much of his cabinet as possible and incarcerate them in Berrima jail.
Mum herself was secretary to the editor of The Labor Daily, which – apart from being a wholly-owned Labor newspaper (ah those were the days!) – was reputed to have the best horse racing form guide in the country.
Bob Hawke, as PM, used to see her at Rose Hill racecourse – of which they were both Members (it was Mum’s one self-indulgence) – and ask her for her tips for the day. He used to call her “Kitty” and she practically swooned every time she met him. She’d adored Bob Hawke. So did my Dad.
My brother-in-law played Jack Lang in a play (about the NSW government debt default) at the New Theatre (Newtown) called Lang Was Right, back in the 1980s. Old “Lang Labor” hands said the resemblance was uncanny.
Lang was one of the true Greats. Giants walked the land in those days.
Sadly, today the best we have is dwarfs, at least on the Tory side.
I sometimes have to pinch myself that this nation could elect Abbott as PM. I suspect he has to pinch himself as well.
[AC: are you referring to that Turkeys guy who spat the dummy earlier?]
Was it only as recently as over the weekend that Turkey was claiming all this Coalition dysfunction was part of Abbott’s cunning “Rope-A-Dope” plan?
BB
[Was it only as recently as over the weekend that Turkey was claiming all this Coalition dysfunction was part of Abbott’s cunning “Rope-A-Dope” plan?]
The Unicorns run fast.
Ocean Princess last logged was 2 hrs ago near Flying Fish Cove, Hoa Nam last logged was 1 hr ago at Flying Fish Cove.
bemused
You learn something every day. Howard’s father was rumoured to be a member of the old guard and I had a quick google. I did not know about this bro of JWH.
[However, when interviewed by author Peter van Onselen about his father’s involvement in the New Guard, another son, Bob, an academic and a member of the Australian Labor Party recalls Lyall defending New Guard activities, and said his father probably was a member of the New Guard]
I saw Dutton Health at work today, I go and see my Doc every 28 days for a script. It requires an authority from the Health Dept.
The average waiting time on the phone has gone from a minute in August to 15 minutes now. Yep I was chatting to my Doc as he was on the phone, the consultation went from a Consult Brief to a Consult Long (Costing the Health Dept $53.70). This is not an Xmas thing the wait increased a month ago.
Well done Dutton. I guess you will blame Doctor’s for your cost cutting crap.
BB
[Was it only as recently as over the weekend that Turkey was claiming all this Coalition dysfunction was part of Abbott’s cunning “Rope-A-Dope” plan?]
It’s worked. The dopes have used so much rope they are well and truly getting knotted.
Bushfire Bill@2717
My mothers side of the family came from Blayney out near Bathurst in Chifley’s electorate of Macquarie.
They were all of conservative inclination but by the time I was an adult, mum had seen the light.
The only comment I ever heard from her about politics in the Macquarie electorate was in the last couple of years of her life when she said: “Yes, my father knew the Chifleys… but he didn’t vote for him.”
She told tales of living on a farm and coping with bushfires when all they had to fight them was a bucket of water to wet down a mop or sack on a stick which was used to beat the flames.
The other bit of family history on her side was one of her uncles being killed in the round-up of the Japanese from the Cowra breakout.
It was a case of friendly fire. A rifle discharged as he and others were hopping in the back of a truck and he exclaimed: “Oh.. I’ve been shot in the bum!” Sounds humorous, but he died of septicaemia some days later. It is mentioned in at least one book about the Cowra Breakout.
More Garbage putting out.
The tapes must have been faked, or the CMC was nobbled or its Joh Land.
[QUEENSLAND’S corruption watchdog has cleared all players in the Bruce Flegg tapes scandal.
The Crime and Misconduct Commission today release a statement saying it found no evidence of electoral bribery.
The investigation was sparked after Moggill MP Bruce Flegg’s former girlfriend presented the watchdog with a mobile phone containing recordings of conversations.
A previous investigation in 2011 looked into allegation Dr Flegg was offered an inducement to step aside for Campbell Newman.
“The CMC engaged former District Court Judge Mr Gary Forno, QC, to oversight (sic) the reopened investigation and to carefully consider the evidence,” the CMC said.
“The reopened investigation has found (in line with the earlier investigation) that although the seat of Moggill was a topic of discussion among members of the Liberal National Party prior to the state election, there is no evidence that a criminal offence of electoral bribery was committed within the meaning of Section 98C of theCriminal Code.”
The CMC’s ruling paves the way for the LNP to endorse Barry O’Sullivan’s elevation to the Senate.
Mr O’Sullivan was among the LNP officials being investigated by the CMC over claims that the party had offered Mr Flegg an inducement.
Acting Premier Jeff Seeney said Mr O’Sullivan would be endorsed once parliament returned.]
Funny how the oversight committee gets sacked the CMC top guy has secret meetings in the Premiers Office, and lo everything is Milk and Honey.
Oh and Newman still needs a seat. 😆
[Funny how the oversight committee gets sacked the CMC top guy has secret meetings in the Premiers Office, and lo everything is Milk and Honey.
Oh and Newman still needs a seat. :lol:]
When Blight said he was a guy likely to end up in jail it was terrible politics, but surely this kind of stuff is him playing with fire.
So the normal Xmas stuff goes on. Yesterday my sister gave me a black expensive Polo shirt just when my last two even slightly presentable track suit pant are also black.
Go figure!
WeWantPaul
What Bligh was referring to stank to the high heavens. Oh I’m sure it was all legal….. BUT. A planning decision needed to be made. Donations come in to his campaign from seven different sources. Each amount just under the reportable amount. Planning decision gets the thumbs up. All seven donating companies disappear in a puff of smoke immediately after the election. Lo and behold all seven companies were the creatures of the developer who got the thumbs up.
The Courier Mail went fairly hard on this.
[The Courier Mail went fairly hard on this.]
I can’t believe Qld’ers elected him.
[The Courier Mail went fairly hard on this]
It has had its nuts chopped off since the editor was sacked. Its a Brisbane copy of the Telegraph now. 🙁
The “Flegg tapes” have people making suggestions that Bruce go to the US on the Qld payroll, but it seems thats OK on the day before xmas eve.
Oh by the way. Sullivan will make Barnaby Joyce seem sane.
ruawake
Well that explains why ,to my surprise at the time, they suddenly went dead on it. It was surprising enough that they went in hard to begin with. There seemed to be a bit of a feud with Cambo and some Curious Snail journos back then.
[There seemed to be a bit of a feud with Cambo and some Curious Snail journos back then.]
There was, Rupert lobbed Col into the country and it all changed.
At least 3 more years of Abbott… next year will be a ripper
@Sean/2734
I think you mean, next year will be a disaster.
Sean Tisme
[
At least 3 more years of Abbott… next year will be a ripper]
As in “Jack” ? 😉
Abbott may as well get on his bike and ride to Darwin over the next 6 months, he is unable to do anything without compromise, so don’t even think about it.
Joe will figure out that not saying when he will achieve a surplus is a minus political ploy.
Abbott has his signature $5.5 billion policy in tatters as the 20 year old kid with cancer gets denied a DSP by Andrews.
Petrol hits $2 a litre and the RBA increases interest rates (sending Katter into outer space).
Oh and boats from Syria and Sudan are still arriving daily.
Not much for Tony to feel good about really.
At least 3 more years of Abbott… next year will be a ripper but you ‘ll really hate 2016, assuming Abbott isn’t replaced by then. My tip for the next election: Saturday November 26 2016. He’ll go late.
[At least 3 more years of Abbott]
Two years and nine months, actually. I’m pleased, Sean, that you’re keeping up your record of having never once made a factually correct statement here.
BBC World Service @bbcworldservice 14m
42,000 civilians being looked after in @UN compounds in #SouthSudan – UN spokesman in Juba http://bbc.in/1cMBO7p
Its not often that i agree with former senator Helen Coonan but she raises a valid point regarding the DSP, is it time to create two streams.
I agree with this idea as i have noticed that its very difficult to have a serious debate about the disability sector.
My starting point is people born with a disability which is why i focus on maximising employment and social opportunities.
But this very quickly gets drowned out by stories of people that were able bodied and after a lifetime of having all the opportunities that come with that then 45 or something they became disabled, these stories usually finish with claims that i am being unfair and uncaring for going on about employment and social opportunities when the focus should be on care and compassion.
DSP should only be for people that are born with a disability or come down with a psychical disability.
Acute illness, mental conditions and short term injuries should be under a different scheme or stream.
@MB/2741
But then you have people like me who have been born with Disabilities (such as Hearing, Knee Dislocation etc), and then have injuries later on due to being in work (or work for the dole).
When I was doing Work For the Dole, I had an accident walking down the stairs, my knee dislocated, the accident caused me to go to hospital (in an Ambulance – in pain) and have a fair bit blood taken out as the blood has swollen up my foot/knee, on top of this I nearly broken my knee because of that accident.
However, due to dodgyness of Centerlink, they didn’t put me no DSP straight away, I had to fight for that (even though I had the knee dislocation since birth and other disabilities).
The problem is how Government’s legislate things, and how they word it, and then of course Centerlink get’s away with crap.
What is the point of trying to find work for the majority of people on DSP, when there is little to none of work available to begin with, the goverment should be focusing on creating work, not punishing those who unable to find work or can’t work (the latter is normally the case).
mexican
[Acute illness, mental conditions and short term injuries should be under a different scheme or stream.]
They are.
Look, the facts have been explained to you often enough. To get the disability pension you have to jump through all kinds of hoops. You don’t get it for acute illness or short term injuries.
I’m not sure why you’re excluding mental conditions, which can be just as debilitating as anything physical. I’m putting that comment down to total ignorance, because if it’s not, you’re really despicable.
I’ve recently – as I’ve often referred to – gone through about two years where I really couldn’t work. I had difficulty walking even short distances and the pain I was in severely limited my abilities (and only someone who has endured constant unremitting pain can understand why that is!)
But I wasn’t offered a disability pension at any stage. Because my disability was clearly temporary, I was put on Newstart but not required to look for work. (If my hubby hadn’t got fulltime work in the meantime, I would have had this reviewed this month).
I’m sure that’s the way Centrelink deals with most of the situations you’re referring to.
In effect, what you’re describing is already in place (except for long term mental illness, which is – quite rightly, and I repeat, I hope you’re speaking out of ignorance – treated the same as other disabilities).
Zoidy
That is sad and comes to the heart of what i am forever banging on about.
A person that is born with a disability should not have to fight a system just for an opportunity or too be treated fairly.
The system needs to be better designed, if it was better designed then stories like your should become a thing of the past.
Despite a disabled person’s condition all they really want is an opportunity sadly that gets lost in all the boohoo about budgets and claims of rorts.
Zoomster
You are a classic point, you were born able bodied, had all the opportunities that come with that yet you had a short term injury and you suddenly become an expert, maybe you should ask yourself how would your life had been if you had been born with a disability all the able bodied things you would have missed out on.
@MB/2744
Unfortunately, lately, this goverment and previous goverment is under the impression that regular reviews and tougher requirements (even more tougher requirements than already) is the way to fix crap.
When it doesn’t (SEE NZ and UK as examples).
They are using us as an escape goat, to fix their stupid mistakes, while blaming the opposing parties.
mexican
AND I DIDN’T GET A DISABILITY PENSION.
Understand that now?
Zoomster
I didn’t say you did but if you are going to call me ignorance please make sure you know where i am coming from
Regarding DSP yes i know there are different gradings but what i am referring too is it time to end this debate by only having those born with or develop a psychical/Intellectual disability on DSP and move everyone else onto a something different.
(I don’t mean Newstart)
Did that Turkey make a resurgence 😆
Typical right winger, can dish it out but can’t take it back 😉