BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  3. In by-passing the tender process for the Vehicle Fleet, and instead choosing BMW, Abbott is sending the message that Australians are not worthy.
    (It sorta make sense in the light of the TPP anyway)

  5. [The Ranger uranium mine, north of the Jawoyn, unleashed its own kind of sickness last Saturday when a leach tank burst, spilling 1 million litres of highly acidic uranium slurry that engulfed the mine and breached containment lines.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/kakadu-haunted-by-toxic-sludge-20131213-2zcvp.html#ixzz2nP9LRO3Y

    Regarding the Ranger uranium mine spill, it really is awful. Some of the environmental scientists I know pointed out how toxic and persistent this stuff is (dissolved salts, heavy metals & radioactive elements in a thick hard to remove mud form). It is not yet the wet season in NT so there was no. Excuse for this – lousy or non existent maintenance was the cause. Kakadu is a big place, but the parts hit by this stuff will be destroyed.

    Have a nice day all. Off to do the shopping before hopefully a resumption of Mitchcember.

  6. Oh dear at peace with the world on a beautiful Saturday morning just had coffee with friends and thought have a look at PB< Had WW3 had broken out? So will go over to twitter or go down to the beach. See you later 😀

  7. GG

    Hird and the Herald Sun are doing their best to direct the blame at the feet of the AFL. They want the scalp of Demetriou, so they can somehow be vindicted and say to the footy public and their members, not our fault. It is those nasty people at the AFl, especially that useless Mr Demetriou

  8. GG

    What really gauls me is that Hird was more than willing to have David Evans be the scapegoat. Evans resigned and left the field, and yet we had Hird going for another round this week. My contempt for Hird grows by the day

  9. Of course Australia, aka Abbott, does not comment about intelligence matters.

    Except when it does.

    Someone from inside the intelligence establishment is backgrounding ‘The Australian’ – presumably with the tacit support of Abbott, Bishop and Brandis. But it is difficult to understand what this piece is supposed to achieve. It purports to give three ‘reasons’ why intelligence agencies at the time thought it would be a good idea to spy on Mrs Sudhoyono:

    (1) Three Australians had been killed in a terrorist bombing. Is the backgrounder implying that the President’s wife was, somehow or other, involved in this act of terrorism? If not, why raise it in this context? Sleazy stuff, IMHO.

    (2) Mrs Sudhoyono may have been trying to engineer her son as a successor to SBY. So?

    (3) Mrs Sudhoyono was a trusted advisor of SBY. So?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/why-australias-spies-targeted-sbys-wife-kristiani-herawati/story-fn59nm2j-1226782889761

    Are Australians the audience for this farrago of unicorn and self-justification? Are we supposed to ignore the discrepancy between the Abbott Government’s official position and its unofficial position? Are we supposed to feel comfortable and relaxed that we can trust the judgement of the security agencies?

    Are Indonesians the audience? What is SBY supposed to make of this nonsense? Is this yet another stupid, careless and ignorant effort at pouring petrol on the Australian/Indonesian spyfires?

    When will the Abbott Government, its ministers, and its minions ever learn that it is often better just to STFU?

  10. victoria@1757

    GG

    Hird and the Herald Sun are doing their best to direct the blame at the feet of the AFL. They want the scalp of Demetriou, so they can somehow be vindicted and say to the footy public and their members, not our fault. It is those nasty people at the AFl, especially that useless Mr Demetriou

    Vic, I really hope ASADA go the players after this.
    Essendon are a bunch of cheats.

  11. Boerwar

    Whatever the end game on the part of the coalition and its cheersquad, the Indonesian heirarchy will not take kindly to this latest reportage. Not one little bit

  13. vic,

    Yes, there is an awful lot of symapathy for Hird in Murdoch land. However, once the story moves to the WADA charges, they will have to stop playing semantic games and report the facts.

    I suspect there will be a lot of pain heading Essendon’s way and they may rue “pissing off” the AFL Administration when they are looking for friends.

  14. Yesiree Bob

    Hird’s conduct throughout this whole affair has confirmed my feelings about him. If Essendon had any integrity, they would have sacked him ages ago.

  16. GG

    [Of course, as John Fahey has announced that Essendon are on the cusp of players and officials being charged with drug cheating charges.]

    He was quite specific about the club but not at all specific about whether players would be included.

    The ‘Gazelle’, Dank’s associate, was hauled into ASADA this week but refused to surrender some documents. Result $5,100 fine. He has been called back and faces a fine of $5,100 each time he refuses to provide evidence. In a quirky momenet, the Gazelle arrived at ASADA with an esky full of ice creams as gifts. I imagine that those ASADA representatives present may well have baulked.

    Danks has previously stated publicly that, if he is hauled in to give evidence to ASADA, it will be ‘See you in court’.

    Since, if there is anyone at all, it would have been Danks who was in a position to actually know most about what went into the bodies of Essendon players, the process of extracting, or failing to extract, evidence from Danks may delay the denoument of Essendon’s tragedy, tragi-comedy or farce.

  17. MTBW,

    [You nailed it and lets put them gaol!]

    Did Margie leave the front door open when she went out doing her Nigella Lawson impersonation?

    If so, an Indonesian hit squad plus a whole boatload of Scoot’s illegals could have got in.

    Margie should have stuck to her ironing and the security guys should have brought their own cut sangers and flask of coffee.

  18. GG

    There is a lot of sympathy for Hird from Limited news, for the simple reason they are themselves pissed off with the AFL. They want to be the number one purveyor of AFL news and have not taken kindly to the AFL having their own website with breaking video news and the like. Also Mark Robinson has a personal issue with Demetriou, related to the provision of news etc.

  21. GG

    I should have added that during the time of the supplement scandal, it was the Age newspaper that had all the running and the scoops. That really pissed off the Herald Sun, who were aggrieved that they were not in the loop.

  22. victoria

    Not sure you meant me. However The SunHerald performs well at getting customers because the sporting department has mostly stuck with quality.

  23. guytaur

    Actually in many respects The Age reporting of the AFL has been of better quality, but it is the Herald Sun that is far more popular

  24. BW,

    Fahey has previously stated that it is the athletes ultimate responsibility to be drug free. They cannot job out the responsibility to others through contractual arrangements etc.

    Young players are so keen to become AFL Players. They will naturally be influenced by icons of the game like Hird and his management team to do “whatever it takes” to make the grade.

    This is why what Essendon and their coaching panel have done is so reprehensible. They have used the trust of these eager youngsters to further their own ambitions without proper process, controls or care.

  26. victoria

    Idid say mostly. It changes when Murdoch interferes. Just like we see with political coverage.

    Now Murdoch has interfered due to AFL threat the quality will continue to go down. As with political news in the Australian it will take a while but cutovers will stop buying.

    So that will be a win to the AFL and Age

  27. GG

    [Fahey has previously stated that it is the athletes ultimate responsibility to be drug free. They cannot job out the responsibility to others through contractual arrangements etc.]

    The governance was so slack that, in relation to issuing an infraction notice to specific players, the issue may be which players got what stuff, if any.

    In which case it it the Club which may get a hammering, up to and including the Club being banned from competing for up to two years.

  28. vic,

    Fairfax have broken all the major stories re Essendon. Paying Hird might sell a few papers but is largely irrelevant to the ultimate outcome of this saga.

    The AFL is a huge multi billion dollar industry. More reporters cover AFL than politics! A million dollars to Hird is chicken shit.

  30. guytaur

    I would love to see news ltd take a hit, but we know have the coalition who are actively nobbling the NBN for Uncle Rupert. It is very depressing

  32. MTBW,

    [AC

    Love your style 😆 !]

    Thanks for the banter. I’m glad that you didn’t take me seriously. We can be a bit grave on here at times.

  38. GG

    Agree that the payment to Hird of a mill is a chickenshit. Hird and his camp have an agenda to shift the perception that somehow the AFL have no clue as to what they are doing and fherefore anything they have resolved in thr supplement saga can be challenged. Hird is trying to save his own reputation by damaging that of Demetriou, the AFL and to a lesser extent, those that have gone before him at Essendon including David Evans. His conduct is contemptible.

  39. MTBW, I think you said earlier the Griffith pre-selection is on Sunday. It is actually today from 9:00am – 1:00pm.

    Hopefully we will know the outcome early this afternoon.

  41. I was just polled by UMR research regarding S.A. state election. It was a robo-poll with the following questions:

    Who will you vote for in Lower House?
    Are you likely to change your mind (Yes / No)?
    Do you have a positive / negative view of Jay Weatherall / Stephen Marshall (separate questions)?
    Who will you vote for in the Legislative Council?
    What is your gender?
    What is your age?

  42. vic,

    I agree with all that.

    Basically, the AFL’s aim is to keep them and their officials out of court. It’s well known that many of the rules and regulations used by the AFL would not passs muster in a court. The AFL knows this, the clubs know this.

    However, were the draft for example, successfully challenged then up to half the clubs would disappear. So, while the rules might not be strictly legal, the Clubs go along with them because of the greater good and their long term survival.

    The Hird camp know this and are basically ransomming the AFL. The AFL goes along with this because, despite the embarrassment it sees it as a short term thing.

    Once the WADA stuff hits, Hird will become a footnote. As I said, Essendon and Hird have tried to leverage this situation for advantage and to try and embarrass the AFL. However, when the spaghetti hits the fan, they will be buried neck deep in elephant poo looking for a powerful friend to dig them out. I don’t think it will be the AFL.

  43. GG

    The AFL clubs all agree to abide by the governance, rules and code of conduct by their membership and participation of the AFL competition. If James Hird wants to blow the whole place up so he can somehow redeem himself, tells anyone anything they need to know about the man who has benefitted handsomely from his time in this system. Hird is not bigger than the game, and he should do the right thing and just f off now.

  45. ShowsOn@1791

    I was just polled by UMR research regarding S.A. state election. It was a robo-poll with the following questions:

    Who will you vote for in Lower House?
    Are you likely to change your mind (Yes / No)?
    Do you have a positive / negative view of Jay Weatherall / Stephen Marshall (separate questions)?
    Who will you vote for in the Legislative Council?
    What is your gender?
    What is your age?

    How did you answer that last question?

  46. The Government is gearing up to use next Tuesday’s MYEFO to distract from all of their current difficulties. I expect it will be a joint Liberal-News Corp presentation with coordinated horror stories in the Murdoch papers.

    Joe Hockey will use the MYEFO to:
    * Trash Labor’s legacy
    * Blame Labor for the new Government’s own mistakes
    * as a cover for unpopular cuts and asset sales they want to implement anyway
    * As a distraction from Holden, Indonesia, cutting wages for Child- and Aged Care workers.
    * Possibly as an excuse to drop some of their own spending promises – not PPL but maybe Direct Inaction and certainly anything they’ve inherited from Labor that they previously promised to keep.

    What it won’t presage are any cuts to tax rorts for business and the well off or winding back of middle- and upper class welfare.

    The Opposition needs to set up an address in reply and be ready to expose the distortions, half-truths and outright lies that the government’s presentation of the MYEFO will contain, plus a couple of constructive suggestions of its own to address budget issues.

  48. GG

    Demetriou certainly lost. He said Hird wouldn’t be paid and he’d withdraw funding if Essendon paid him.

    As soon as legal scrutiny was mentioned, he folded faster than Superman on washing day.

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