Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 42 (+4) #auspol]
    Is this worst post election “honeymoon” PM net approval result since Keating in 1993?

  2. Laocoon@51

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 42 (+4) #auspol

    Is this worst post election “honeymoon” PM net approval result since Keating in 1993?

    Equal worst. Gillard had a zero netsat 5-7 Nov 2010.

  3. Does anyone know if Bushfire Bill has a grey beard, a florid complexion, staccato speech and a penchant for sending videos of himself to Q&A?

    ‘Cause if so I now know what he looks like.

  4. You are quite correct Showy.

    The Drover’s Dog could win against him now he’s shown his hand.

    Abbott has called misere, played his first card & lost.

  5. Abbott is fucked not because of the latest issue, though that will put dents in him, he is fucked because we can clearly see that he is totally without ability as PM… not only is he no national leader, an imbecile on the international scene, he is totally incoherent when it comes to any policy.

    He lacks all skills required for the job apart from blind party backing. And will be held in the job to the 11th hour in blind adulation by his supporters then knifed.

    Labor needs to just act mature and steady, look capable without being raucous or crass…to provide a suitable contrast to Abbott who is basically a school boy bully.

  6. 67 briefly
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 5:59 am | Permalink
    William Bowe

    Anyone else think Abbott’s “fucked”?

    Particularly in the head.

    You’ll get no argument from me on that score.

  7. Fran,

    Perhaps my impacience with conspiracy theories got the better of me. Bushfire certainly has his moments, but he also.posts.some.absolute rubbish. ST has had his, too. I don’t think he’s an idiot, just a troll. He can be quite funny when he wants to.

  8. [42
    William Bowe

    Right on cue:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 42s
    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 42 (+4) #auspol]

    Won’t be long now and we’ll be seeing negative net sat numbers for Abbott, which will foretell his electoral doom. He is handicapped not only by his own vanity, dissembling and incompetence, but by the weakness of his Cabinet. Taken together, they are a very poor Government.

  9. Something is wrong! ABC Breakfast hosts haven’t mentioned Newspoll yet. They were all over Neilsen yesterday.

    Payback for the GG going hard on the ABC lately?

  10. 76

    I suppose Newspoll is hardly exciting. The report would be “Poll shows minor loss in support for the LNP. Honeymoon ends as voter dissatisfaction climbs.”

  11. [Anyone else think Abbott’s “fucked”?]
    Politically, yes, but given his previous life in a seminary it’s not something that should probably be speculated in too much detail.

  12. I like the following from the article linked by BH: “…it’s like watching a re-write of “Yes, Prime Minister” with an Australian setting, and a less sympathetic main character.”

  13. Further to my 79, I have always struggled with the sanity of that woman who believed her son, who is so dishonest, cruel, corrupt, self-centred, hateful, hated, sexist, [feel free to add your own descriptors] could one day become either pope or prime minister. Whoa! what happened?.

  14. [62
    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 2:04 am | PERMALINK
    Anyone else think Abbott’s “fucked”?]

    No. Looking at how Labor get comfortable in opposition, Abbott might have been reduced from a decade in government to two terms.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The Three Stooges have really done well with “our best friends”. The deterioration continues.
    Not to mention Prime Minister!
    And so we should be concerned!
    I do like Ged Kearney. More on the above article’s subject.
    NSW highlights to duplicity of Prissy Pyne’s remarks on Gonski. Keeping the broad funding but dismissing the formulae is not being “in lockstep with Gonski” as Abbott declared before the election. NSW will not lie down on this one.
    This could lead to an interesting situation for Abbot. Morriscum and his toy soldier.
    Some considerable circumspection from this Royal Commission witness. And what a sorry tale he told.

  16. Section 2 . . .

    Bruce Petty and an Abbott selfie.
    David Moir really captures Turnbull well here as he contemplates the poll trend.
    Cathy Wilcox explains the rationale of the proposed change to the retirement age.
    David Pope has been on fire this last six months. Today’s is no exception as he has Prissy in his sights.
    Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s innate personality.
    David Rowe with a lovely portrait of Chainsaw McFarlane mangling innovation policy.

  17. Briefly

    A laugh helps a lot. I expected to be as angry with Abbott as I was when he was LOTO but I’m not.

    Some of my friends feel the same way and we decided it was Labor leadership tensions gone but mostly that Abbott and the LNP are a great comedy show – a bunch of blowhards who were nowhere near ready to govern.

    Until the Senate changes it will be fun watching them huffin’ n puffin’ 🙂

  18. And from the Land of the Free –

    So THAT’S how Idiot Sarah Palin landed her gig at FoxNews.
    Justice Texas style.
    The GOP’s war on peace.
    Some good cartoons on the breaking of the filibuster in the Senate.

  19. Tories….complete idiots….

    [The other test is positioning Australia between America and China, where the stakes are even higher and the trends are even worse. At last week’s annual AUSMIN meeting in Washington, Australia drew closer to America, quietly signing up to base more US forces here, and to operate more closely with the US across Asia. Then over the weekend America drew closer to war with China, when Beijing sharply escalated its confrontation with Japan in the East China Sea. The way this is heading, Abbott’s problems with Jakarta will soon seem mild.

    The Abbott government’s first AUSMIN, where our foreign and defence ministers meet their US counterparts, was a low-key affair, but it took some big steps.

    At last year’s AUSMIN, the Americans were hoping to implement the promises that Julia Gillard had made when she hosted President Obama here in November 2011 to open more of Australia’s military bases to US forces.

    Instead they found Bob Carr and Stephen Smith reluctant to commit to anything beyond the Marines deployment to Darwin that had already been announced. They apparently suspected that Australia had succumbed to Chinese pressure. They were not pleased.

    But this year our new ministers, Julie Bishop and David Johnston, joined their counterparts to sign a Statement of Principles providing ”a common vision for advancing the US force posture initiatives in northern Australia”, and agreed to start negotiating a binding agreement to support US rotational deployments.]

    Read more:

  20. Re badcat @91 – that’s serious stuff from a credible source re potential conflict between China and Japan and the role of the US. And Tony Abbott is the least capable PM since before WW2 to deal with any implications for Australia.

  21. [92

    Going by BK’s first link, the Indonesians have well and truly told Scrote Morriscum to go feck himself.]

    Both Abbott and Morrison must be perilously close to misleading Parliament on the detailed reality of non-cooperation with Indonesia.

  22. [
    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 2:04 am | Permalink

    Anyone else think Abbott’s “fucked”?
    Yes, but not because of these polls. His problems will start when the senate changes. There will be nothing to keep him under control and already he has no political capital to burn. Can’t see him pulling back and those that thought he can’t be serious will find out he was.

  23. [Looking out of the window I can see a mother fox and four gambolling pups in the paddock below. A bit cute really.]

    BK That’s always my confliction. I think they’re gorgeous til they have parties in the Chookyard.

    We lost our old dog a few weeks ago so every day we now have 5 wallies and 3 babies in the garden. Fascinating to watch til they get into the parsley, gardenias, azaleas and my 1 rose!

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