Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 42
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  1. [99
    frednk

    His problems will start when the senate changes. There will be nothing to keep him under control and already he has no political capital to burn. Can’t see him pulling back and those that thought he can’t be serious will find out he was.]

    Palmer, Labor and the Greens will outnumber the LNP in the Senate. It is quite possible that Palmer will set out to oppose the LNP at every turn. He seems to me to be on a personal crusade.

  3. [Can’t see him pulling back and those that thought he can’t be serious will find out he was.]

    Frednk How is Abbott going to manage all the backroom promises to business groups, shockjocks and Murdoch without breaking his “trust” with the rest of us.

    Some are going to be badly burnt.

  4. [briefly
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    …

    Palmer, Labor and the Greens will outnumber the LNP in the Senate. It is quite possible that Palmer will set out to oppose the LNP at every turn. He seems to me to be on a personal crusade.]
    If it works out that way then I think Abbott might have a chance.

  5. Yesterday it was pointed out on Bludger that Morrison lied in his interview to Kelly and that the lie might irritate the Indonesians some more.

    Today Bachelard has an article in the CT noting that the Indonesians have ‘flatly contradicted’ Morrison. They have not done so personally but in terms of statements about what they are not doing which Morrison says the are doing.

  8. [106
    lizzie

    This mob lies to cover their inadequacy. I don’t find them at all amusing 😡 ]

    Morrison will tell one lie too many one day soon and that will be the end of him. Abbott also sails very close to the wind. The can lie to the media and get away with it, but if they lie in Parliament they will be in terminal trouble.

  9. I don’t often link to the Daily ToiletPaper, but this well-sourced story on the “secret” envoy from Abbott to SBY is instructive.

    Cloak and dagger, lots of “clever” thinking, helpfull drop of an “exclusive” to Murdoch organ. When you get to end of the story, a complete balls-up is revealed..

    [When General Leahy arrived in Jakarta on Friday night Dr Yudhoyono had already left the capital for Bali. An official from the Foreign Ministry flew the letter to him.

    “The tactics were to get the message to the President as unobtrusively as possible,” a government source said.

    “All the arrangements were done inside the PMO to ensure it wasn’t leaked.”]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/secret-mission-to-jakarta-to-end-phone-tap-rift/story-fni0cx12-1226768256156

  10. Fran K this morn interviewed a pollster I’d never heard of “The True something”. He wasn’t very impressive. I was surprise (not?) to hear him say that people wanted something done about climate change in a general way, but not Carbon Tax, not Direct Action. They didn’t understand any of it because wtte “the scientists hadn’t made their case”.

  13. On the surface, at least, Abbott is not finished yet. His Party is still comfortably ahead on 2PP. They have got an awful lot of the bad news out of the way before Christmas. Government discipline is still strong. There are no signs that his MSM backers are doing anything other than support him to the hilt, regardless of what might be called objective reality.

    It is possible to argue, OTOH, that it is possible to see how the beginning of Abbott’s end might is being framed – however long that end takes to arrive:

    (1) his personal values and qualities are unpleasant
    (2) his lies
    (3) the progress of climate change
    (4) the ongoing revelation of a set of domestic and foreign policies and programs that are at the more extreme edge of right wing ideology.
    (5) the habit of transferring successful domestic political habits to the foreign affairs domain
    (6) his Government’s DNA of rewarding the few at the expense of the many.

  15. (5) should read: [the ineptness of transferring successful domestic political habits to the foreign affairs domain where they become unsuccessfl habits.]

  16. I did not watch qanda, but am seeing some commentary on twitter as to julian Burnside’s comments re the fallout with Indonesia, and Abbott ‘s motivation. Can anyone enlighten? Thanks

  17. [113
    Boerwar

    On the surface, at least, Abbott is not finished yet.]

    Abbott has no real strategy on the economy, the budget and the deficit. Labor managed to hold things together despite a fall in the terms of trade. This mob have no idea. The underlying deficit is probably around 3.5% of GDP at present. Their promised policies are only going to make it worse even as the economy loses momentum. They are going to struggle to deliver on anything at all. The boats fiasco – which has been so predictable – will soon be eclipsed by their budgetary problems.

  20. sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 7:57 am | Permalink
    I don’t often link to the Daily ToiletPaper, but this well-sourced story on the “secret” envoy from Abbott to SBY is instructive.

    Cloak and dagger, lots of “clever” thinking, helpful drop of an “exclusive” to Murdoch organ. When you get to end of the story, a complete balls-up is revealed..

    When General Leahy arrived in Jakarta on Friday night Dr Yudhoyono had already left the capital for Bali. An official from the Foreign Ministry flew the letter to him.

    “The tactics were to get the message to the President as unobtrusively as possible,” a government source said.

    “All the arrangements were done inside the PMO to ensure it wasn’t leaked.”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/secret-mission-to-jakarta-to-end-phone-tap-rift/story-fni0cx12-1226768256156

    ————————————————————-

    All this costly cloak and dagger designed for home consumption opinion polling perhaps?

    Wouldn’t it have been simpler, quicker, certainly cheaper, to scan the letter, email the image to the Aussie embassy in Jakarta, print it out and have the diplomat deliver it by hand?

    .
    .
    .
    Side issue, I always have a chuckle reading the comments section in these Mudrock rag articles.

  21. This reminds me of the efforts of the US Banjo Belt to suppress certain voting demographics.
    http://theconversation.com/voter-id-laws-will-fail-poor-indigenous-and-homeless-queenslanders-20647?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+26+November+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+26+November+2013+CID_0015461ffc05f371a8d77b84f10895b7&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Voter%20ID%20laws%20will%20fail%20poor%20Indigenous%20and%20homeless%20Queenslanders

  24. Kathryn Greiner urging Pyne to meet for just 1 day with the gonski panel to be briefed on the model. Fran K asked him this morning and he simply said (guess what?) NO. He says he’s studied the report, knows all about it, and it’s a mess.

    Talks about equity. Huh!

  25. This mob have no idea. The underlying deficit is probably around 3.5% of GDP at present. Their promised policies are only going to make it worse even as the economy loses momentum.
    =======================================================

    To tackle debt the Libs have borrowed more including the $8 billion to the RBA and raise the debt ceiling by 67%.

  26. lizzie

    The Vic and NSW state govts are not going to give the coalition a free pass on the Gonski reforms. I know Pyne cant help being a smart arse, but his attitude stinks

  27. Yesterday in the BRW

    [In Opposition, Tony Abbott gave every impression of believing that being prime minister was going to be a cakewalk; it was only because of Labor’s unruly incompetence that it made such a hash of government, the argument ran. Abbott, on the other hand, promised “purposeful, methodical, calm” government. The Prime Minister must be choking on his victory cake because government is proving a lot more difficult than he envisaged.]

    http://www.brw.com.au/p/leadership/voters_remorse_tony_abbott_gets_BtbHnhGo3eqlHEpWlBb9nM

  28. THE federal education minister says he’s too busy to sit down with an expert panel and have its needs-based school funding model explained to him.
    =================================================

    Arrogant Poodle

  29. Since Pyne is committing to spend the same amount on education in the 4 years, his intention to alter the rules is, as we know, pure ideology and his descriptions of the “Shorten schemozzle” are just the usual “too much regulation” rubbish. I love it that Coalition states such as NSW & Vic are fighting him.

  30. [Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 4m
    How very fair-minded of The Australian to solicit a column from the director of ABC News – and plant it behind a paywall.]

  32. Abbott and Pyne lied about education funding.

    Before the election they promised funding would be maintained at they would maintain the funding for four years.

    They are now breaking that promise.

  35. My response to that tweet Lizzie:

    [@Colvinius AFAIC the more of the #OO that is behind the paywall, the better. People ought to keep their dirty laundry from public view.]

  36. 38 per cent of voters support retention of the carbon tax, suggesting that it’s not quite the hated tax that the Coalition has long claimed. And while the majority support the abolition, just 12 per cent, or approximately one in 10 voters, support the Coalition’s direct action policy. Twenty-nine per cent of voters support Labor’s proposal to move to a floating price emissions trading scheme on July 1, 2014.
    =====================================================

    Take that mandate(sic) that Liberal trolls rant about and stick it in a place the sun don’t shine.

  39. sprocket_@109


    I don’t often link to the Daily ToiletPaper, but this well-sourced story on the “secret” envoy from Abbott to SBY is instructive.

    Again it just more propaganda from the tories.

    Not prepared to tell voters directly but SOP, feed it to murdoch’s media.

    Yes. abbott is fucked.

  40. BIBLE classes should be compulsory so children have a fundamental understanding of Christianity on leaving school, federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says.

    http://shar.es/D34bj
    ==========================================================

    Abbott showing his lack of – well anything to do with understanding the multi-culture make up of Australian society.

    Still living in the colonialism days

  42. AA

    In a secular society, study of comparative religions would be more useful and lead to understanding instead of fighting. I still think that “pure” religious instruction should be outside school hours unless it’s a declared religious private school – and then not publicly funded.

  43. Spider@107 Grrrr indeed. I sympathise. 4 is a lot to lose.

    [BIBLE classes should be compulsory so children have a fundamental understanding of Christianity on leaving school, federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says.]

    Good grief Those classes turned many of us right off. My grandkids’ RI teaching (public primary school) was better. They had 1 session a week on ALL religions and ended up with a much better understanding.

    I guess we have some small thing to thank Howard for – he kept religion out of his Govt. as much as he could. Barely went to Church himself altho Hyacinth was a regular goer.

  44. So it seems that Tony only got a 2.2 at Oxford. That’s almost a fail. Don’t know how he can keep a straight face when people talk about his academic accomplishments.

  45. I like the idea that landslide territory of 52% TPP for the Coalition is now considered “bad”

    I haven’t laughed this hard since the claim Campbell Newman was toast with wait for it… 57% TPP to the LNP 😀

  46. victoria
    [Vic parliament sitting today. Interesting to see what happens ]

    According to today’s Oz, Geoff Shaw still doesn’t support the Speaker, but he doesn’t like Labor’s tactics either. Popcorn time is 2.00 pm.

    I saw a tweet from a few minutes ago claiming that Denis Napthine was on radio calling on Labor not to challenge the Speaker’s authority. How weak and pathetic if he really did that.

  48. Good Morning.

    Abbott has another mess to deal with. An aged care facility proposed for Midddle Head in Sydney. Plans well advanced. This is on Defence Land turned into National Park in the 2001 Howard era.

    Abbott is the local member and of course to get approval to build there Gref Hunt has to sign off on it.

  49. [So it seems that]

    Todays Anti-Abbott rant is that he only got a B Average at Oxford University.

    [Tony only got a 2.2 at Oxford.]

    Oh what did you get??

    Actually scratch that, what mark did you get at any university?

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