Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

Nielsen’s first poll since the election delivers a rude shock for the Abbott government, showing Labor with an election-winning lead and Bill Shorten travelling 20 points better on net approval than Tony Abbott.

The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.

Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.

A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.

The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.

In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.

UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Pick up the phone Tony!!

    [ALMOST 90 per cent of Indonesians want their government to deliver an even harsher warning to Australia over spying revelations, although less than eight per cent support a military strike.

    A survey published by Indonesia’s biggest selling national newspaper, Kompas, also shows 63 per cent of people agree with the decision to recall ambassador Nadjib Riphat Kesoema from Canberra.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/almost-90-of-indons-want-harsher-action/story-fn3dxix6-1226768165391#sthash.WlrFwWPL.dpuf

  2. This is one of the real problems for Indonesia, losing face on the world stage.

    [The vast majority of those surveyed (87 per cent) also believe Indonesia’s intelligence capabilities have been proven to be weak as a result of the eavesdropping revelations. ]

  3. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    The Ocean Protector has been doing 5 knot East-West oscillations north of Christmas Islan all day.

    Taxi Service days over, protecting Aussie Borders begins
    ========================================================

    good to see the Labor PNG policy is working

  4. Labors Shame is it’s Legacy

    1. Spying on Indonesia and PNG causing dimplomatic tensions

    2. Boats Blowout

    3. Budget Blowouts

    4. Carbon Tax we were never going to have

    5. Live Cattle Trade Fiasco

    6. Pink Batts Disaster

    7. Fuelwatch and Grocerywatch websites that never happened

    8. Cash for Clunkers Clunker

    9. Mining Tax that doesn’t make any money but wrecks our economy

    10. Musical Chair leadershit

  5. [ Papua New Guinea will summon Australia’s High Commissioner to explain Australia’s position on spying in PNG.

    And the country is working with Israel to boost its intelligence capabilities.

    Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has told PNG Parliament that Australia should respect his country’s sovereignty, and tapping phones without authority was illegal.

    Indonesia’s President has frozen relations with Australia as a result of the claims Australia spied on him and his inner circle, and Prime Minister Tony Abbott has over the weekend sent him a letter of explanation.

    Just as Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has responded to the Indonesian President’s demands for an explanation for tapping his phone, now Papua New Guinea too wants an explanation. ]

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/11/25/png-escalates-spy-row-brings-israelis

    Hey buddy! Get in line. This has a long way to go yet. Taking bets as to how much hair Abbott has left in three years time? 😉

  6. Sean dear, you can stop campaigning against Labor now.

    Your side won, remember?

    Sit back and enjoy the excellent job they are doing. Everything is going great, now piss off.

  7. […it was traditionally said to be “rum, buggery and the lash,”]

    Why would he of the Turquoise sweater object to that? :devil:

    Or was the sweater Aqua ….?

  8. @Sean/906

    First two months:

    1. Gonksi Gone.
    2. NBN FTTN Rollout Delayed till 2015.
    3. Turnbull got Rolled in Opposition by 1.
    4. National Party is not National Party.
    5. $8 billion to RBA.
    6. $500 billion dollar debt that we had to have.
    7. GST on Online Purchases <$1000 after they promised not to do it.
    8. 2 Million jobs – More jobs lost.
    9. Diplomacy disaster.
    10. Putin Hates us.
    11. Ears dropping on Neighbors.
    12. Asylum Seeker Silence.
    13. Goverment of Shame and Silence.
    14. Hide the Boats, Hide the Navy General, Hide the Budget (with more debt), Hide the Information.

    Sean, you can deal with the truth, that it took about 2 months to do what Labor did in 6 years.
    8.

  9. [Papua New Guinea will summon Australia’s High Commissioner to explain Australia’s position on spying in PNG.]

    Did we secretly connect another string to the tin cans?

  10. Al

    [Sit back and enjoy the excellent job they are doing. Everything is going great, now piss off.]

    Shorn screeches on a little too much.

    No gonads.

  11. [Papua New Guinea will summon Australia’s High Commissioner to explain Australia’s position on spying in PNG.]

    The rest of that article linked upthread is a worry. If PNG is using Israel as some kind of “consultant”, then that gives the Chinese an interesting hook in. Israel and China do have an “odd” relationship as far as things militant go.

    Thanks Abbott. Your ineptitude at handling international relations knows few bounds.

  12. poroti

    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    RT

    Did we secretly connect another string to the tin cans?

    Nah. The Coalition broadband set up has already been revealed.
    ===========================================

    and that will only cost $30 billion….

  13. Turnbull will be reduced to : “If Fraudband doesn’t fit you’ll find the sleeves will ride up with wear”; to misquote Mr Grainger.

  14. [Labors Shame is it’s Legacy

    1. Spying on Indonesia and PNG causing dimplomatic tensions

    2. Boats Blowout

    3. Budget Blowouts

    4. Carbon Tax we were never going to have

    5. Live Cattle Trade Fiasco

    6. Pink Batts Disaster

    7. Fuelwatch and Grocerywatch websites that never happened

    8. Cash for Clunkers Clunker

    9. Mining Tax that doesn’t make any money but wrecks our economy

    10. Musical Chair leadershit]

    Get over it Sean. You won the election.

    They’re YOUR problems now.

    “No surprises. No Excuses.” … remember?

  15. [Sean Tisme

    Taxi Service days over, protecting Aussie Borders begins]

    “protecting” is of course a misnomer. In what possible sense do unarmed asylum seekers represent a force against which we need to be protected? In the context, the idea of a “border” is also almost meaningless.

  16. well, those people that voted for them, now see what we who did not, saw before the election, the secrecy, the misogyny, and the lack of desire to act on climate change. sad the lack of foresight.

  17. Imagine if trees gave off Wi-Fi signals. We’d be planting so many trees we’d probably save the planet.

    Shame they only produce the oxygen we breath

  18. AA

    Not only but also a version of..

    [“Antigonish” Hughes Mearns….also known as “The Little Man Who Wasn’t There”,

    Yesterday, upon the stair,
    I met Tony Abbott who wasn’t there.
    Abbott wasn’t there again today,
    I wish, I wish he’d go away…

    When I came home last night at three,
    Abbott was waiting there for me
    But when I looked around the hall,
    I couldn’t see him there at all!
    Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more!
    Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door…

    Last night I saw upon the stair,
    A little man who wasn’t there,
    Abbott wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away…]

  19. The government says that abolishing the carbon price would save the average Australian household $550 per annum. If that was true ( a big if), the difference in cost between Direct Inaction and an ETS linked to the EU Carbon price would be about $40 per annum for said average household. If the Government actually intends to meet the bottom of the range of the emission reduction target (5%), Direct Inaction would actually cost more.

  20. Sean does that business you run involve shouting at lamp-posts? ‘Cos I’d be interested to know what sort of revenue stream that produces for you.

  21. ‘panda’ is perfect – you think it is going to be good, but when you actually watch it is boring and predictable and may as well be in black and white.

  22. “@Richard_Hemming: Australian beef exporters wouldn’t agree with Tony Abbott’s aggressive approach to Indonesia. They are paying for it. #qanda”

  23. [Obama’s approval now the lowest it has ever been.]
    Who cares.

    He ducked the republican’s shit up in the Senate last week. That’s all that matters.

    When your side of politics is losing, the world is winning.

  24. Evening all.

    guytaur:

    You won’t see Abbott on Qanda unless he thinks there’s an advantage for him in appearing.

    I hope tonight’s Newspoll mirrors today’s Neilsen, but am not overly hopeful it will.

  25. “@kimmaree_tweet: @JulianBurnside suggesting that Tony Abbott trashing relationship with Indonesia because “Stop the Boats” was never going to work #qanda”

  26. “@JaneCaro: #qanda Gees, those people smugglers are amazing! Australia & Indonesia both quivering, violated victims of a few men with leaky boats 4 hire”

  27. [ShowsOn
    ….Abbott gets one bad poll and now Mod Lib wants to chat about U.S. politics!

    Exhibit A of gutless wankerism.]

    I have just arrived Shows On……feel free to ask me anything you like!

  28. PNG have realised they too can use spying allegations to beat up on Abbott because they know Abbott and Morrison need PNG to ‘Stop The Boats’.

    I wonder if Abbott is ruing his decision to make Stop The Boats a cornerstone of the coalition’s foreign policy.

  29. Panda definitely better than Qanda. Perhaps we could give Tony Jones some bamboo and a fur coat and donate him to a zoo in Indonesia to help restore relations.

  30. sohar

    The Sheepens, like Australia, are part of the secret squirrel group called “The Five eyes” . Part of the chaps agreement is not to spy on each other.
    Absolute proof of Australia honouring the gentlemen’s agreement is the Bledisloe Cup results 🙂

  31. [Perhaps we could give Tony Jones some bamboo and a fur coat and donate him to a zoo in Indonesia to help restore relations.]

    Nah, let him do a Trott and take his bat and ball and head home!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *