The latest fortnightly average from Essential Research drifts further away from Newspoll in having Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45% and the Greens down two to 8%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47.
Questions about party attributes deliver a generally poor report card for Labor, the most eye-opening finding being a 72% rating for “divided”, which up six points from during the election campaign. Labor continues to perform poorly on trustworthiness and the keeping of promises, but is not thought to be too influenced by corporate interests and does okay on vision, policies and moderation. Results from earlier party attribute polling allow us to compare Labor’s position under Julia Gillard at the start of April, Kevin Rudd two weeks into the election campaign, and Bill Shorten this week. With results for negative indicators like “divided” and “out of touch” inverted so that higher numbers consistently indicate better results, Labor’s average score across 12 common indicators goes from 37.25% under Gillard to 46.2% under Rudd to 44.2% under Shorten (the three polls respectively had two-party preferred results of 56-44, 50-50 and 53-47). Departures from the overall trend suggest that while Rudd was rated a better and more visionary leader than his two peers, he had baggage for being too liberal with promises and was not seen as “moderate” (the latter being the only measure on which Gillard was competitive with him).
The Liberals’ average responses went from 47.5% in April to 45.25% in August to 48.7% in November. They have much improved since the August poll on leadership and being clear in what they stand for, but are more likely to be seen as extreme or too close to corporate interests. With mediocre ratings recorded for promises and trustworthiness, the party’s trump card remains that only 25% think it divided. The poll also tests opinion on what the government’s commission of audit should recommended, with means testing of welfare and presumably painless cuts to “duplication” strongly favoured over lower benefits and anything involving privatisation. A separate question finds opposition to the privatisation of Medibank Private at 43% compared with 22% support. Finally, a question on voluntary euthanasia has support at 68% and opposition at 19%, respectively down one and up five since September 2010.
Senate matters:
• I’ve had a fair bit of paywalled material on the Western Australian situation in Crikey, which subscribers can enjoy here, here and here (the articles respectively being from Tuesday, Monday and Friday).
• Labor in New South Wales moved promptly last week to confirm former Robertson MP Deb O’Neill to fill Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy, which he announced to the surprise of nobody only a week before. O’Neill was a surprise winner in Robertson at the 2010 election after deposing beleagured incumbent Belinda Neal for preselection, but she was unable to withstand the tide against Labor on September 7. Early nominees for the vacancy included another casualty of the election, former junior minister and Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly, but he withdrew as it became apparent that O’Neill had decisive cross-factional support. Labor appears to be planning to have O’Neill continue to work her old electorate with an eye to recovering it at the next election, as well as maintaining a broader Central Coast presence for the party after it also lost Dobell.
• The Queensland Senate seat made vacant by Barnaby Joyce’s move to the lower house as member for New England remains in limbo, as Campbell Newman withholds parliamentary endorsement for Liberal National Party nominee Barry O’Sullivan pending a Crime and Misconduct Commission inquiry. A former LNP treasurer, O’Sullivan faces lingering accusations that he improperly sought to induce state MP Bruce Flegg to vacate his safe seat of Moggill at last year’s election in favour of Campbell Newman, in lieu of which Newman was required to contest the Labor-held seat of Ashgrove. With the CMC taking longer over the matter than anticipated, the vacancy will go unfilled until state parliament resumes in February. That leaves Queensland a Senator short when the new parliament convenes next week, which if nothing else will deprive the Nationals of a vote in the party room. The matter has aggravated ongoing tensions within the LNP, with Barnaby Joyce and Ron Boswell calling for O’Sullivan’s Senate position to be confirmed even as “senior members” of the party reportedly push for him to “graciously step down”.
Boerwar @ 494: There were 5 journalists murdered in Balibo, not 4. And anything that a coroner can do to help hunt down the scum who were behind that act deserves a standing ovation.
pedant@501
4 at Balibo and a fifth, Roger East murdered elsewhere.
Hamilton exists in 6 states provided you allow Hamilton Hill in WA
bemused@502
Apologies pedant, you were true to your name, it was five at Balibo.
That former Labor Govt has a lot to answer for;
5th highest per capita GDP in world behind Luxembourg, Qatar, Norway & Switzerland
5 plus Roger East
Tonight’s Drum a write off – again. Michael Gleeson bookended by a pair of garrulous fools.
[I don’t know why any company bothers polling at this time in the electoral cycle, except to hopefully get their company name mentioned.]
I suppose it’s good to get a progressive snapshot of things, for historical reference. It makes a good starting point for the government, so future polling can be judged relatively.
It is, however, foolish to read much into them right now and certainly so to make predictions for the next election based on them.
Sure GUILDFORD in 5 states, not sure if any more
As for common place names, I wonder if “Cook” is one.
shellbell/bemused
What is wrong with it is that there is an implicit arrogance about the Australian coronial system as it applies to Indonesia.
Australian coroners invade Indonesian space. Next we will have Afghanistani and Pakistani coroners making judgements about Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd and Abbott about drone based killings of women and children and Australia’s role in providing supporting infrastructure by way of Pine Gap and North-west Cape. Then of course there are hundreds of people still being killed on a routine basis as a result of, inter alia, Howard’s role there. Plenty of work for Iraqi coroners right there.
I imagine that what goes round comes round. There are calls for the Australian ambassador to Indonesia to attend Indonesian Commission hearings.
I think politics is better served by polls in an election year and none outside.
Never going to happen, but it may make Governments do what is right, not what is popular.
Springfield is a pretty ubiquitous suburb as well.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 12m
Does @joehockey blame previous govt for extending the period since recession to 23 years, even though the world fell into recession? #abc730
@JoeHockey blames previous govt for budget; does he blame it for AAA rating, low inflation & interest rates, growth, real wages #abc730
Tens of thousands of innocent Iraqis, Afghanistanis and Pakistanis have been killed as a direct consequence of wars that were initiated by, or joined by, John Howard. The killings were perpetrated by an alliance in which we have been, and/or continue to be, full partners. These killings are widely regarded as war crimes.
I note the language used by other posters here in relation to those murdered at Balibo. Are they intending to use the same language about the other killers?
[I think politics is better served by polls in an election year and none outside.]
Political polling outside of election years serves only the vested interests rather than the public interest IMO.
I wonder if we’ll see the constant polling of the sort we’ve seen the past few years.
Bemused @ 504: Roger East was killed in the port area of Dili about 3 weeks after the murders in Balibo.
Boerwar @ 511: So what? Murder is murder. If you think that channelling the ghost of Benny Moerdani will win votes for your Informal Party, you should think again.
z
“Here is an idea for Newman on bikies, replace motor bikes, with bicycle’s, like all asian countries have (South Korea, Japan etc).”
Replacing cars with scooters, motorbikes and the ubiquitous ‘Step Through’ would make more sense. Congestion and demand for parking decrease enormously.
[The Greens are asking supporters to help fund legal costs for the High Court battle over the West Australian Senate election result.]
I imagine they will get strong support for this.
pedant
‘Boerwar @ 511: So what? Murder is murder. If you think that channelling the ghost of Benny Moerdani will win votes for your Informal Party, you should think again.’
‘Murder is murder.’ Sure. Your reference to the Informal Party is a red herring.
What I would like to know is this. Are you happy for the same standards to apply to Australia as Australian coroners apply to others? If you are happy for other countries to start using their coronial systems to judge Australians for the various murders they commit then at least you are being consistent. First cabs off the rank would be Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd and Abbott. They have, between them, an awful lot of innocent blood on their hands.
Of course the Iraqi, Afghanistani and Pakistani coroners would not stop at the top. They would need to pursue all the enablers, the facilitators, the commanders and the troops who have participated, one way or another, in the blood letting.
Lots if taxis queued up on Victoria Road Chatswood tonight, extending right up to the Pacific Highway. Taxis in Sydney seem to be less scarce than normal. Availability of taxis seems to have a negative correlation with economic conditions. Last time taxis became easy to find was around 1990, shortly before the last recession. I don’t know what it is – fewer people want to spend money on taxis , more retrenched white collar workers getting jobs as taxi drivers…
The Afghanistan and Pakistan coroners could being by just focussing on wedding parties that were blasted to pieces. They could, rightfully, pose the technical question of what technical and infrastructure support Australia supplied to the attacks? Who knows? We are not being told. We just pay the taxes to enable this sort of stuff to happen.
Any coroner worth his or her salt would be bound to ask the questions, wouldn’t they?
If any foreign coroner wants to conduct an inquiry into the death of a fellow countryman or woman in Australia the coroner will find that:
(a) he or she gets full cooperation of Australian authorities;
(b) the death most likely will have been fully investigated and itself the subject of a coronial inquiry.
Boerwar @ 520: Provided that the foreign courts’ standards of evidence and of judicial independence are up to those of Australia, I have no problem with that. See the case of the Spanish Magistrate who indicted General Pinochet.
shellbell
‘If any foreign coroner wants to conduct an inquiry into the death of a fellow countryman or woman in Australia the coroner will find that:
(a) he or she gets full cooperation of Australian authorities;
(b) the death most likely will have been fully investigated and itself the subject of a coronial inquiry.’
You mean like when Afghanistan wedding parties have been blown to smithereens?
[
Greensborough Growler
…
The Abbott Govt is increasing the deficit, increasing our debt, giving tax cuts to the wealthy & raising tax on super for low paid
]
Yes it would seem they are determined to follow the USA Republicans and look where that got the USA and for that matter the republicans; in the end even the silliest middle class union hater wakes up.
Bye Bye AAA
Bye Bye Low unemplyement.
Hello to a few supper rich sucking the life out of the economy.
The other disingenuous point of note about Hawker is he’s trying to make excuses for Rudd’s obsession with News ltd at a crucial point in the election campaign when he should’ve been doing statesman and incumbency.
[Kevin Rudd’s repeated claims of systematic anti-Labor bias in his treatment by News Corporation newspapers ahead of the September election were fuelled by an independent assessment of media reporting commissioned by the Labor Party.]
Vested interests much. Hawker requested that study. Of course he’s going to try to defend that now that we know how loopy and unhinged Rudd looked carrying on about it. The real question here is why did Rudd take on board this advice when Rudd was supposed to be the one with better judgement.
[It found that Mr Rudd was subject to “unfavourable” reporting in The Daily Tele-graph at “over twice the volume of unfavourable coverage of Kevin Rudd and the ALP than The Sydney Morning Herald”.]
Well of course! Hawker only had to look at the last 6 years of Daily Telegraph reportage to see that about Labor and its leader! Labor presumably paid for that report FFS. Unbelievable.
Two points: Labor should cut Hawker loose. Never again let this person within 2 feet of an election campaign which the ALP is contesting. And Mark Kenny needs to start thinking critically instead of taking everything at face value.
Indonesian coroners could make a start by subpoening any and all Australians who have had anything at all to do in connection with any of the drownings of asylum seekers.
That would set the coronial cat amongst the pigeons.
Why is Hawker faffing on about all this stuff? Isn’t he the hired help? He carries on as if he owns the Labor Party.
Next, please.
Ooohh just logged in, Greens polling 8% that means down to 7% in reality.
How did you guys go in the cup?
Told ya Fiorente (saved on it) should have won the Cox Plate 😛
Had Sea Moon (was backed for a fortune) filled the placings I’d have scored the tri and first 4 😐
Centre
Unfortunately, ‘If’ ran out of the placings. It always does.
[Why is Hawker faffing on about all this stuff?]
My guess is reputation management. After 3 years of hype that a Rudd-led Labor would be competitive in an election, the stark reality of its defeat has left people like him looking decidedly red-faced.
pedant@517
Yes, ABC Radio did a good doco on Roger East.
Boerwar@523
Yes they can go and do all that, and get as much in the way of results as did the Australian Coroner did.
Have you backed away from your idiotic Informal Party?
Pre-election Chicken Little climate change by Abetz
[First, don’t think that the first thing that comes into your mind is necessarily correct.]
OK, so what is the first impression people have of climate change? Generally it’s what climate scientists are telling us. Here Abetz is dissing scientists as usual.
[Secondly, don’t run with a crowd especially if you don’t know where it is going to lead you.]
Wow, big ups warning about voting for the Libs version of carbon abatement.
{And thirdly be very suspicious of those that offer all the answers. It pays to check their credentials.]
Need I say anymore?
http://abetz.com.au/speeches/the-acorn-has-a-lot-to-answer-for-address-to-saylm
bemused
‘Yes they can go and do all that, and get as much in the way of results as did the Australian Coroner did.’
So, you would support Iraqi, Afghanistani, Pakistani and Indonesian coroners starting an activist campaign to start holding individual Australians to account for all the deaths with which Australia has been associated over the past couple of decades?
Boer,
I put plenty on Sea Moon, saved Fiorente, then Sea Moon as a place stand out with the first 3 and 5th placegetter in Tri’s and first 4s.
Had Sea Moon even placed the pockets would have been bulging in all directions 😈
Journalists go to combat zone, get killed. Why is this exceptional, it has been happening for decades/
‘First, don’t think that the first thing that comes into your mind is necessarily correct.’
I assume that Abetz is an irony-free zone?
Australia builds about 200,000 cars, they are worth about $30,000, it’s a $6billion dollar industry.
Hocky just gave away $2 billion in tax revenue and another 4 billion will go with “direct action”.
The magic pudding must have some really powerfull magic.
confessions@533
Oh how you are longing for that wipe out that would have ensued under Gillard.
I can’t find a link anywhere to that powerpoint on coalition social policy I mentioned earlier.
If it was delivered by minister Andrews, as I thought, then it should be on his ministerial website, but it’s not there.
Convicted Terrorist David Hicks, aka Muhammed Dawood, wasting my taxpayer dollars on appealing his sentence he pleaded guilty to and has already served.
The only good news is I believe when you appeal a sentence you could end up be given a longer sentence and therefore this chump could spend more time in the slammer.
[ confessions
Posted Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
Why is Hawker faffing on about all this stuff?
]
Isn’t he on Rudd’s payroll?
Boerwar@537
That is up to the authorities in those countries, not me.
@Sean/544
It’s a pitty that Abbott & Co isn’t in the same positing, also wasting tax payers money.
Court Case for SSM, Audit the entire country, etc.
[Isn’t he on Rudd’s payroll?]
Yes.
As I suggested, reputation management after the years of Rudd hype would appear to be at the root of this excuse-making by Hawker.
Gerard Whateley did a Cup phantom call and had Sea Moon as the winner, its odds the shortened dramatically.
[Stephen Murray @smurray38 24m
Transcript of today’s argument in the High Court in the @unionsNSW political donations case http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/HCATrans/2013/264.html … ]