The latest fortnightly average from Essential Research drifts further away from Newspoll in having Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45% and the Greens down two to 8%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47.
Questions about party attributes deliver a generally poor report card for Labor, the most eye-opening finding being a 72% rating for “divided”, which up six points from during the election campaign. Labor continues to perform poorly on trustworthiness and the keeping of promises, but is not thought to be too influenced by corporate interests and does okay on vision, policies and moderation. Results from earlier party attribute polling allow us to compare Labor’s position under Julia Gillard at the start of April, Kevin Rudd two weeks into the election campaign, and Bill Shorten this week. With results for negative indicators like “divided” and “out of touch” inverted so that higher numbers consistently indicate better results, Labor’s average score across 12 common indicators goes from 37.25% under Gillard to 46.2% under Rudd to 44.2% under Shorten (the three polls respectively had two-party preferred results of 56-44, 50-50 and 53-47). Departures from the overall trend suggest that while Rudd was rated a better and more visionary leader than his two peers, he had baggage for being too liberal with promises and was not seen as “moderate” (the latter being the only measure on which Gillard was competitive with him).
The Liberals’ average responses went from 47.5% in April to 45.25% in August to 48.7% in November. They have much improved since the August poll on leadership and being clear in what they stand for, but are more likely to be seen as extreme or too close to corporate interests. With mediocre ratings recorded for promises and trustworthiness, the party’s trump card remains that only 25% think it divided. The poll also tests opinion on what the government’s commission of audit should recommended, with means testing of welfare and presumably painless cuts to “duplication” strongly favoured over lower benefits and anything involving privatisation. A separate question finds opposition to the privatisation of Medibank Private at 43% compared with 22% support. Finally, a question on voluntary euthanasia has support at 68% and opposition at 19%, respectively down one and up five since September 2010.
Senate matters:
• I’ve had a fair bit of paywalled material on the Western Australian situation in Crikey, which subscribers can enjoy here, here and here (the articles respectively being from Tuesday, Monday and Friday).
• Labor in New South Wales moved promptly last week to confirm former Robertson MP Deb O’Neill to fill Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy, which he announced to the surprise of nobody only a week before. O’Neill was a surprise winner in Robertson at the 2010 election after deposing beleagured incumbent Belinda Neal for preselection, but she was unable to withstand the tide against Labor on September 7. Early nominees for the vacancy included another casualty of the election, former junior minister and Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly, but he withdrew as it became apparent that O’Neill had decisive cross-factional support. Labor appears to be planning to have O’Neill continue to work her old electorate with an eye to recovering it at the next election, as well as maintaining a broader Central Coast presence for the party after it also lost Dobell.
• The Queensland Senate seat made vacant by Barnaby Joyce’s move to the lower house as member for New England remains in limbo, as Campbell Newman withholds parliamentary endorsement for Liberal National Party nominee Barry O’Sullivan pending a Crime and Misconduct Commission inquiry. A former LNP treasurer, O’Sullivan faces lingering accusations that he improperly sought to induce state MP Bruce Flegg to vacate his safe seat of Moggill at last year’s election in favour of Campbell Newman, in lieu of which Newman was required to contest the Labor-held seat of Ashgrove. With the CMC taking longer over the matter than anticipated, the vacancy will go unfilled until state parliament resumes in February. That leaves Queensland a Senator short when the new parliament convenes next week, which if nothing else will deprive the Nationals of a vote in the party room. The matter has aggravated ongoing tensions within the LNP, with Barnaby Joyce and Ron Boswell calling for O’Sullivan’s Senate position to be confirmed even as “senior members” of the party reportedly push for him to “graciously step down”.
Here is an idea for Newman on bikies, replace moter bikes, with bicycle’s, like all asian countries have (South Korea, Japan etc).
Very good, there are indeed six Springfields.
dave @439 – quoting an article from February when???
[ Marrickville Mauler
Posted Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 6:14 pm | Permalink
Badcat # 440, I’m still wondering what a “Rhode Scholar” is …
I don’t think Julie Bishop’s legal career is actually much of a point in her favour either: considering it featured working to drag legal proceedings by asbestos victims out until they died.
]
—————————————————–
We have all met the “over-educated idiot” – that person with 20 Degrees and 10 PHD’s – but still need their partner to tie their shoe-laces in the morning – consequently a give-away sign – they wear ‘slip-on shoes’ ….
@CC/453
Still this year CC.
A Rhodes Scholarship is a post graduate scholarship to attend Oxford University.
Most Rhodes scholars use their degrees in later professional life, some become journalists.
ruawake @447 – mere electioneering.
If they were throwing spooks out of the country left right and centre, then I’d take notice.
Well, in terms of simplistic inputs/outputs, payment by results has been around since Adam was at school.
Funny how the best education systems – such as seems to be the case in places like Finland, do not use this method.
The quality debate in educations is an old and hoary one and there is no simplistic relationship between class sizes and academic performance.
If this were the case the relationship would work in both directions.
Why not have classes of 100 kids – for the sake of debate – with one teacher. It would seem axiomatic, and simplistic, of course, that whatever standard one teacher can achieve, by doubling the number of teachers to 2 and thereby halving the average class size, one could anticipate the academic results to improve by???????
To take it to the extreme, surely a one-to-one correspondence – 100 teachers and 100 kids would create wonderful academic progress.
If only things were just that simple.
The trouble with Tories they are good at counting men digging holes with shovels but that seems to be the extent of their understanding of productivity.
Kind of 2 men dig twice as many holes as one man and 20 men, 20 times the the number of holes.
I think some of this time and motion management stuff came out of the early 1920s.
About where Abbott wants to take us.
Compact Crank@453
Follow the link – I’m not your servant.
MM @450
ooooh – mature comeback – so I dropped an s – big whoop – got anything better?
No one gets a partnership in a major law firm for doing nothing and being dumb – it takes a huge amount of work, results and brains – to suggest other wise is juvenile – but you’ve already established that being so concerned about typos.
Aren’t defendents allowed to have defence lawyers these days?
[ruawake @447 – mere electioneering.]
Rubbish. Stop defending the indefensible. The electioneering will happen in earnest next year, don’t worry its only 250 million people’s opinion.
More from Greg Sheridan regarding Julie Bidhop’s response to her handling of the
Rebiya Kadeer issue in 2009:
…The opposition’s response, through Bishop, was pathetic. It was internally contradictory, unprincipled, amoral beyond even the exigencies of parliamentary hypocrisy and profoundly stupid. Bishop was a dud shadow treasurer and is now a dud foreign affairs spokeswoman.
http://m.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/speak-truth-to-power/story-e6frg76f-1225765002231
Similar things could be said about what Tony Abbott and his crew have said about any number of topics from the carbon price, asylum seekers, the ‘budget emergency’ and pretty much anything else.
zoidlord @455
Greg Sheridan, Foreign Editor|
The Australian|
February 14, 2011 12:00AM
That’s over two and a half years ago – got anything more recent? Sheridan is a Foriegn Affairs Policy wonk – I doubt he is ever going to be happy unless there is another Foriegn Affairs Policy wonk in the job. Bishop is doing a great job.
I don’t think much of a Government that gives the wealthy tax breaks but increases taxes on 3.7 million low paid workers.
Its a low act
[Bishop is doing a great job.]
Its a bit tricky when your team is in Govt isn’t it Cranky. Don’t worry you will look back at these as the good old days.
Bishop has never done a good job of anything, except maybe being a loyal girl.
I don’t think much of a government that cuts taxes to be paid by the mining companies while increasing taxes on small business.
Thistlethwaite gets it right:
The Abbott Govt is increasing the deficit, increasing our debt, giving tax cuts to the wealthy & raising tax on super for low paid
Thanks for all that!
Remember the everyone fakes passports gaffe? That was a hoot.
[Deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop says Australia’s security agencies engage in passport forgery – the very practice that prompted the Rudd Government to expel an Israeli diplomat.
Ms Bishop became embroiled in the fake passports scandal after calling yesterday’s expulsion “an over-reaction”.
It would be naive to think that Israel is the only country in the world that has used forged passports
She told Fairfax Media: “It would be naive to think that Israel is the only country in the world that has used forged passports, including Australian passports, for security operations.”
When asked directly if Australian intelligence agencies forge passports, Ms Bishop – a former cabinet minister in the Howard government – replied “yes”.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-forges-passports-too-says-bishop-20100525-wa6b.html#ixzz2jqg2bkdj
But now she has here mouth araldited shut when she should be soothing Indonesian pride.
The Rhodes scholarship is an ‘Empire’ idea about grooming the ‘leaders’ of the next generation.
To be a Rhodes scholar doesn’t imply academic excellence –
When fondness for sports, ‘devotion to duty’, ‘instincts to lead’ are 3 of the 4 criteria, I think it’s safe to say that being smart is not a requirement to be a Rhodes scholar.
@CC/463
Bishop is not doing a good job.
The claim:
Christopher Pyne says independent public schools are improving student outcomes in Western Australia.
The verdict:
There has been no measured improvement in student outcomes in WA’s independent public schools.
Mr Pyne’s claims are lies
Much as I would like to believe otherwise. I think the 50-50 Morgan result is a rogue.
Compact Crank@463
Her past carries the same relevance as it does to other politicans.
If her past is of no relevance for mesma – it is of no relevance to any part, present or future politican.
Then there is the mess she is currently making with Indonesia.
This is her current test. It on abbott’s watch and mesma’s.
Their job to resolve it. No comment won’t cut it.
[ ruawake
Posted Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 6:06 pm | Permalink
Hey Crankster did you miss this?
Australia’s ambassador to Indonesia may be summoned to answer questions before a parliamentary commission amid growing anger in Jakarta about spying allegations.
The deputy chairman of the Indonesian parliament’s Commission I, which has responsibility for defence, foreign affairs and information, has also backed calls for a review of co-operation between Jakarta and Canberra on various policy fronts, including people smuggling and security.
Agus Gumiwang said on Wednesday that Commission I would seek a briefing from Indonesia’s foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, at which the possibility of summoning officials from the US and Australia would be discussed.
“We will summon the foreign minister after recess, and also to discuss summoning US and Australia ambassadors to Commission I,” Agus said on Wednesday.
It’s unlikely that Australia’s ambassador to Indonesia, Greg Moriarty, could be compelled to appear before Commission I.
Indonesia considering calling the Australian Ambassador before their security Commission. The last person I can think of to handle this is an asbestos litigation lawyer.]
dendrite@370
Yes I noticed that too.
Finding it a bit difficult to place much trust in either Morgan or Essential at the moment but we only have a single Newspoll and one and a half ReachTELs for comparison at this point. Not a very easy environment to model what is really going on, though whatever it is has very little predictive value at this stage anyway.
Tipping contest –
How many ministers will abbott be forced to sack/ accept resignations from by the end of calender 2014?
Who will the first to go?
[Bishop has never done a good job of anything, except maybe being a loyal girl.]
So much sexism from the leftists…
Jackol @ 469 – Abbott should have also failed the ‘Truth’ criterion, although maybe if he was good enough at sport that doesn’t matter.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/tonys-loyal-girl-julie-and-her-nine-lives-20091204-kae4.html
Hawker believes that he had a “pivotal role” in securing the support of the indies for Julia.
[Mr Hawker writes that he played a pivotal role behind the scenes on behalf of Ms Gillard during the protracted 17-day period of negotiation to form government with the Greens and two independents. This included helping to convince the previously conservative-aligned independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor to back Gillard over Mr Abbott.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/news-corp-bias-against-kevin-rudd-showed-up-in-independent-study-diary-reveals-20131106-2x1ig.html#ixzz2jqk3neYn
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 6:43 pm | Permalink
Bishop has never done a good job of anything, except maybe being a loyal girl.
So much sexism from the leftists…
====================================
That’s how new Liberal leader Tony Abbott described his deputy, Julie Bishop, on Tuesday.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/tonys-loyal-girl-julie-and-her-nine-lives-20091204-kae4.html
—————————————
So much sexism from the rusted right wingnuts
@Sean/476
The claim of sexism ha, you have no right.
[So much sexism from the leftists…]
The loyal girl comment was from our PM Tony Abbott, thanks for identifying it as sexist, idiot.
I see that Bruce Hawker has adopted Mark Kenny as his mouthpiece de jour.
[Tipping contest –
How many ministers will abbott be forced to sack/ accept resignations from by the end of calender 2014?
Who will the first to go?]
Dave, i suspect that the Liberal Party directors and backers actually prefer ministers who are non-entities, with no real competencies or drives of their own. They will be told, they will obey and they will comply. I mean really, after seeing them in opposition does anyone really have any serious policy expectations of them??
Scandal that will really damage the Liberals?? Stuff to do with Murdoch, or Credlin.
[Much as I would like to believe otherwise. I think the 50-50 Morgan result is a rogue.]
It doesn’t need to be a “rogue” – it’s just a dodgy Morgan poll like all the other dodgy Morgan polls. I really don’t know why he still bothers.
I don’t know why any company bothers polling at this time in the electoral cycle, except to hopefully get their company name mentioned.
[Bishop has never done a good job of anything, except maybe being a loyal girl.]
She’s a cracker with the photocopier, I hear.
ruawake – somebody pays them to do it. They don’t do them for free.
CC
I’ve been away and just read your #425 in defence of BishopJ and a smile started on my face as I read your unicorn that Bishop’s incompetence is a function of my immaturity.
Since then as I caught up on the last two pages my smile has progressed to laughs as I read Dave n Rua n a coupla others pointing out the specifics to you, and the breadth of disdain for her as a result of her being so far out of her depth.
Here’s a hint. If you want to retain just a shred of credibility you’re going to have to be a bit more discerning about what current ministers you are prepared to defend vis a vis competence.
Abbott has over reached many times, from Whyalla to “budget emergency” but to claim he was ready for government with an “experienced, merit based cabinet” has been either his greatest lie yet or his greatest exhibition of poor judgement.
BTW, at one stage Abbott evidenced that his shadow ministry were so good by stating that 16 were ex Howard ministers. Wow!
I don’t see why Morgan Polls should be discredited so easily. Seems a little like the Left biased knocking Newspoll.
[ruawake – somebody pays them to do it. They don’t do them for free]
Nobody pays Gary Morgan for his political polls, see them reported in any news organisation? He tags them on as advertising.
I just realised, Campbell Newman is the Central Scrutinizer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljnT49jU9vM
[Hawker believes that he had a “pivotal role” in securing the support of the indies for Julia.]
He’s one of many who have claimed credit for the negotiations to form minority govt over the years.
I doubt he’ll be the last.
Our out-of-control coronial system has a thing or two to answer for as well. We would all recall that an Australian coroner took it upon himself to do a coronial on the Balibo Four. Inter alia, this forced an Indonesian to flee Australia.
Hawker? So, what has been his success rate over the past half dozen elections or so?
Boerwar:
Exactly.
confessions@493
I suspect her biggest helper was none other than… Tony Abbott 👿
Boerwar@494
What is your objection to that?
The coroner was a she and exercised her powers appropriately.
shellbell@499
Many Coroners seem to me to be too timid, particularly when government bodies are involved.