The latest fortnightly average from Essential Research drifts further away from Newspoll in having Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45% and the Greens down two to 8%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47.
Questions about party attributes deliver a generally poor report card for Labor, the most eye-opening finding being a 72% rating for “divided”, which up six points from during the election campaign. Labor continues to perform poorly on trustworthiness and the keeping of promises, but is not thought to be too influenced by corporate interests and does okay on vision, policies and moderation. Results from earlier party attribute polling allow us to compare Labor’s position under Julia Gillard at the start of April, Kevin Rudd two weeks into the election campaign, and Bill Shorten this week. With results for negative indicators like “divided” and “out of touch” inverted so that higher numbers consistently indicate better results, Labor’s average score across 12 common indicators goes from 37.25% under Gillard to 46.2% under Rudd to 44.2% under Shorten (the three polls respectively had two-party preferred results of 56-44, 50-50 and 53-47). Departures from the overall trend suggest that while Rudd was rated a better and more visionary leader than his two peers, he had baggage for being too liberal with promises and was not seen as “moderate” (the latter being the only measure on which Gillard was competitive with him).
The Liberals’ average responses went from 47.5% in April to 45.25% in August to 48.7% in November. They have much improved since the August poll on leadership and being clear in what they stand for, but are more likely to be seen as extreme or too close to corporate interests. With mediocre ratings recorded for promises and trustworthiness, the party’s trump card remains that only 25% think it divided. The poll also tests opinion on what the government’s commission of audit should recommended, with means testing of welfare and presumably painless cuts to “duplication” strongly favoured over lower benefits and anything involving privatisation. A separate question finds opposition to the privatisation of Medibank Private at 43% compared with 22% support. Finally, a question on voluntary euthanasia has support at 68% and opposition at 19%, respectively down one and up five since September 2010.
Senate matters:
• I’ve had a fair bit of paywalled material on the Western Australian situation in Crikey, which subscribers can enjoy here, here and here (the articles respectively being from Tuesday, Monday and Friday).
• Labor in New South Wales moved promptly last week to confirm former Robertson MP Deb O’Neill to fill Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy, which he announced to the surprise of nobody only a week before. O’Neill was a surprise winner in Robertson at the 2010 election after deposing beleagured incumbent Belinda Neal for preselection, but she was unable to withstand the tide against Labor on September 7. Early nominees for the vacancy included another casualty of the election, former junior minister and Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly, but he withdrew as it became apparent that O’Neill had decisive cross-factional support. Labor appears to be planning to have O’Neill continue to work her old electorate with an eye to recovering it at the next election, as well as maintaining a broader Central Coast presence for the party after it also lost Dobell.
• The Queensland Senate seat made vacant by Barnaby Joyce’s move to the lower house as member for New England remains in limbo, as Campbell Newman withholds parliamentary endorsement for Liberal National Party nominee Barry O’Sullivan pending a Crime and Misconduct Commission inquiry. A former LNP treasurer, O’Sullivan faces lingering accusations that he improperly sought to induce state MP Bruce Flegg to vacate his safe seat of Moggill at last year’s election in favour of Campbell Newman, in lieu of which Newman was required to contest the Labor-held seat of Ashgrove. With the CMC taking longer over the matter than anticipated, the vacancy will go unfilled until state parliament resumes in February. That leaves Queensland a Senator short when the new parliament convenes next week, which if nothing else will deprive the Nationals of a vote in the party room. The matter has aggravated ongoing tensions within the LNP, with Barnaby Joyce and Ron Boswell calling for O’Sullivan’s Senate position to be confirmed even as “senior members” of the party reportedly push for him to “graciously step down”.
Tisme
What the hell is Barnaby doing now claiming expenses to go to the footy?
Coalition members again getting caught stealing from taxpayers!
[Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 8:44 pm | Permalink
…
The only good news is I believe when you appeal a sentence you could end up be given a longer sentence and therefore this chump could spend more time in the slammer.]
Heard his lawyer on 774, he seems to have a pretty good case. Like he was convicted of a crime that didn’t exist when it was alleged to have been committed, in a country that has a constitution that prevents retrpective criminal legislation and his confession was extracted under duress.
Not going to be a good look for Howard which is probable your problem.
WHAT NO MORGAN HERE YET 50/50 BEEN ON TWITTER FOR HOURS
[THE coalition government won’t go ahead this term with a change in the way GST applies to goods bought overseas via the internet, despite advice it could raise an extra $1 billion a year.
– See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/no-change-to-tax-on-internet-goods-hockey/story-fn3dxiwe-1226754514631#sthash.ebjoo8at.dpuf ]
My emphasis.
Hawker is on nobodies payroll, he sold he share in Hawker-Brittan from a barnaby bazillion and has no need to ever work again.
Election campaigns are now his hobby, maybe he can ply his trade in the Ukraine or somewhere distant.
#544
Understanding of subject matter=zero
[Heard his lawyer on 774, he seems to have a pretty good case.]
Just ignore the fact he was hanging out with his mate Osama…
‘
MY GOODNES STILL TALKING ABOUT RUDD AND MUST BE 6 WEEKS SINCE BOTHERED TO LOOK
bemused
‘Yes they can go and do all that, and get as much in the way of results as did the Australian Coroner did.’
So, you would support Iraqi, Afghanistani, Pakistani and Indonesian coroners starting an activist campaign to start holding individual Australians to account for all the deaths with which Australia has been associated over the past couple of decades?
That is up to the authorities in those countries, not me.’
Well, not entirely. Australia might not support them, after all.
rua
Yes, plenty of inside money wagered on Sea Moon. I backed it at $17, it started $11.
I think the big rumour was that the pace was going to be a cracker, hence the two of Williams’s big hopes were last and 2nd last early with Fiorente well back early.
So much for team riding 😯
[maybe he can ply his trade in the Ukraine or somewhere distant.]
Agreed.
[MY GOODNES STILL TALKING ABOUT RUDD AND MUST BE 6 WEEKS SINCE BOTHERED TO LOOK]
We talk about lots of things. Importantly however, is that we manage to refrain from doing so in capitals.
Those Afgans have died due to a war started by the Taliban’s refusal to hand over OBL.
Iraq was a folly but Afghanistan was not a folly
Centre
Thanks mate, you helped a friend of mine back a winner.
He asked me, “who’d you back, if you were betting?” He long knew the story of my $50 losing wager on a barrier trial way back when.
I said, “Well, from what I can see, there’s a smug bastard on PB who’s backing a horse by the name of Moon something, or Green something, or maybe Green Moon.
“Don’t bother backing that one, he’s riding for a fall.”
“What about a Gai Waterhouse horse? My neighbour reckons she’s good for a win.”
I said, “Well, this smug bastard reckons Gai Waterhouse won’t win, so if you really want a bet put a few bucks on it.”
He said: “But I think it’s a favourite.”
I said: “Well, don’t waste your hard-earned then.”
He said: “But. it’s the Melbourne Cup.”
He rang a few hours ago. He backed Fiorente.
mb
Those Afgans have died due to a war started by the Taliban’s refusal to hand over OBL.
Iraq was a folly but Afghanistan was not a folly’
Sure. We spent 40 lives, 260 physically wounded, thousands of pyschologically wounded and $7 billion in Afghansitan on a war which, according to Abbott, we didn’t win and we didn’t lose. What rubbish. We lost that war years ago.
In terms of coronials, the issue is not who started it, but the degree to which Australia will make Australians available to Afghanistani coroners. After all, we think it is perfectly alright for Australian coroners to subpoena Indonesians. Goose/gander, right?
So when is Abbott going to turn back a boat to Indonesia?
The fact that the Indonesians are really pissed that we have been spying on them should not turn Abbott into a wimp!
Do it Monkey – NOW!
Boerwar@559
So what? I don’t think Indonesia supported the Australian coroner on the Balibo 5 inquest.
Good night all.
Centre
Oh, and he said, “Thank that smug bastard on PB for me.”
Just passing on the message.
[So when is Abbott going to turn back a boat to Indonesia?]
When will they make their first Indonesian boat purchase, and how much will it cost us?
[So when is Abbott going to turn back a boat to Indonesia?]
Dont be surprised if the Indonesians find themselves unable to accept transfers of persons rescued off boats from Indonesia for a while.
Will be interesting to see what info comes out of Morriscums werkly pressers regarding cooperation. Likely none.
[So when is Abbott going to turn back a boat to Indonesia?]
I think we misheard him, he really said he was going to “turn his back on Indonesia”.
Boerwar@568
Off to an Informal Party meeting?
Which phone box do you all meet in?
u have not changed connie
that’s what great about twitter such tolerant ppl and good conversation
bye connie enjoy
My Say
The Morgan has been up here for some time but ambiguous.
[So when is Abbott going to turn back a boat to Indonesia?]
They already have, why do you keep asking when you keep getting told the answer?
And are leftists completely bloody stupid… just because you didn’t get the memo down at Refugee Industry headquarters didnt mean it didn’t happen. Howard turned back boats and we only learned about it about 6 years later.
Since Australia likes to look towards the Americans this story gives the ALP some hope and offers the Liberals a stern warning
http://washingtonexaminer.com/terry-mcauliffe-establishes-democrats-as-party-of-the-elites/article/2538566
Rua, just saw your #492 – great work!
Enforcing all the laws that haven’t been passed yet also seems to be the basis of their approach to liabilities under the carbon pollution reduction scheme …
Currently, mean, trick and secretive about sums up the first 70 days of this shonk government.
Did not start on a high and it will be all downhill I suspect from here.
Where is Abbott hiding?
Where is the Wally?
Mr Despised 53% is fast becoming Mr Invisible.
Kezza
I tipped It’s A Dundeel 1st pick/Fiorente 2nd pick in the Cox Plate AND Sea Moon 1st pick/Fiorente 2nd pick in the Melbourne Cup – as disclosed!
I never said Gai Waterhouse would not win.
You are a moron!
People that want tolerance should first be tolerant.
Kezza2
Oh I see!
Apparently Sea Moon was meant to be wearing a green cap yesterday.
No, I did not tip Green Moon. I actually expressed here clearly that Fiorente was the best run in the Cox Plate – therefore obviously worthy fav in the Cup.
Who did you back – the mare Dear Demi obviously 😆
Abbott and Co are just implementing the former Labor Govt PNG policy and are yet to turn a boat around
mexicanbeemer
[Those Afgans have died due to a war started by the Taliban’s refusal to hand over OBL.]
Actually that scores a wRONg. Under Pashtun custom a guest is afforded protection. Unless they abuse that position.
After 9/11 the Taliban effectively put OBL under house arrest. As was leaked several years after the invasion the Taliban had told the US that if they provided evidence that OBL was behind 9/11 then they would hand him over.
Shock horror NOT it was ignored and the rest as they say is history.
Tisme
Go help him in your dingy – you will make headlines as assistant in honouring election promise to turn back his first boat.
You be every old media outlet in the country.
poroti
I appreciate that the Pustans have cultural norms, In the west once it was considered inappropriate to hand over a person that had gone into sanctuary.
But considering OBL had previously declared war on America it is a bit unfair of Boerwar to blame the Afghan situation on Howard.
Sure by all means hold Howard to account for the Iraqi conflict
Newspaper headlines:
TISME HELPS TURN BACK Abbott’s FIRST BOAT – IN HIS DINGY
😆
So when is Hockey going to deliver his first ever budget surplus?
I know…NEVER!
Hockey has already given away the $7billion that the Libs claimed was going to help to produce a surplus.
All those tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing taxes on the lowest paid workers.
Gotta look after the wealthy – its in the Liberal DNA,
Hockey and budget surplus will never be mentioned in the same sentence.
Today he made several populist decisions will hurt his ability to bring it back to surplus.
I’m actually looking for his first budget, so far he has made it worst so looking forward to it.
Hockey and budget surplus will never be mentioned in the same sentence.
Today he made several populist decisions that will hurt his ability to bring it back to surplus.
I’m actually looking forward to his first budget, so far he has made it worst.
There is nothing wrong with lowering the tax burden on people just because they happen to have a job which pays well.
The question is can the budget afford further weakening to the revenue side.
And i am yet to see any move being made on the big white elephant.
Deary me. Shaun Carney in the Herald Sun.
[WHEN voters in Victoria’s northeast decided to ditch Sophie Mirabella for Cathy McGowan at the federal election two months ago, their decision had an impact on the other side of the planet.
General Motors, headquartered in Detroit, has become increasingly restive about its Australian operation, Holden, in recent years.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/holdens-future-remains-on-a-knifeedge/story-fni0ffsx-1226754487516
MB
[The question is can the budget afford further weakening to the revenue side.]
Actually the questions are more complex — would the populace as a whole stand worse, all things considered, if the tax burden on the relatively wealthy were eased?
Typically that’s not going to be the case though not always for the same reasons.
victoria:
Hilarious! It continues:
[It used to be that the relationship between Holden and the Australian public was more than just business. Sure it was a Holden ad in the 70s that proudly asserted that football, meat pies, kangaroos and Holden cars “go together underneath the southern stars”, but for millions of Australians it was true: Holden was part of Australian life.
Not any more. That’s where Mirabella’s forced exit from politics comes in. From 2009 until her election defeat, Mirabella had held the shadow industry portfolio. Whatever her other deficiencies, she had trained up to know her portfolio and to make a quick transition as a minister.
Thanks to the voters of Indi, that couldn’t happen. Tony Abbott then had to give the industry ministry to Ian Macfarlane, who had held it for two terms under John Howard in a quite different international economic environment. For the past six years, Macfarlane has had his head around trade, energy and resources, not industry policy.]
1. The former Member for Indi never gave any indications she was across her portfolio responsibilities.
2. As zoomster keeps saying, why are Indi voters to blame for the current government’s incompetence on manufacturing policy?
I thought Carney was retired. Perhaps he should’ve stayed in the pasture.
[why are Indi voters to blame for the current government’s incompetence on manufacturing policy?]
More to the point, why are Indi voters responsible for having a nasty, painful, obnoxious viper being foisted upon them by the Libs?
From the article linked to by victoria above —
[Mirabella had held the shadow industry portfolio. Whatever her other deficiencies, she had trained up to know her portfolio and to make a quick transition as a minister.]
Snort.
[For this and other reasons, on important, urgent manufacturing issues such as the fate of Holden and the food processing company Ardmona SPC, the new Government appears to have no direction.]
Right. So Mirabella didn’t leave them anything – not a briefing paper, not a policy direction, not a memo – to give them any indication about what they should do.
Doesn’t pass the pub test.
Holden was making noises about leaving when it looked like Sophie Mirabella was going to be Industry Minister. If anything, they’re still here because she isn’t.
Mirabella wouldn’t know a policy if it danced naked in front of her wearing a lampshade.
I remember – when I was a local councillor in her electorate – being astonished to read that she’d been given Shadow Parl Sec for Local Government. What astonished me about it was that the reason given was that she’d been chair of the relevant policy committee — and we, as one of ‘her’ Shires, had hardly seen her.
For someone who was chair of a policy committee to not have even bothered to meet with local councils and ask them what they’d want to see in the policy is breathtakingly lazy.
confessions
It is beyond hilarious. But Carney does make a very interesting point.
[Much of modern Australia does not seem overly exercised by such notions. Today the Government confirmed it will retain the $1.8 billion fringe benefits tax exemption for cars bought through salary packaging. It is a straight-out subsidy.
That could help sell more cars. For less than that amount, the Government could guarantee the making of cars here for many more years. Why would that subsidy be any worse?]