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| Red and green numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and the Greens. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Wills covers an area of Melbourne’s middle north, from long-established Brunswick in the south and Coburg in the centre to post-war suburbs further north. Like its eastern neighbour Batman, it straddles the divide between the Greens stronghold of the inner city and the expansive Labor heartland of Melbourne’s northern suburbs. However, the former area carries lesser weight in Wills than in Batman, being confined to the area around Brunswick, which makes the seat substantially more secure for Labor. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, though at that time its southern end was covered by the since-abolished electorate of Burke (an unrelated electorate of the same name covered Melbourne’s outer north from 1969 to 2004). Prior to 1949, an electorate called Bourke had boundaries similar to those Wills has had since Burke was abolished in 1955. Labor’s strength in the area was established early, with Bourke being held by either Labor or socialist independents from 1910 until it was abolished.
The inaugural member for Wills was Bill Bryson, who had won Bourke for Labor in 1943 before losing to an independent in 1946. Bryson was among seven Victorian “groupers” who were expelled from the party during the split of 1955, and he contested that year’s election as the candidate of the Australian Labor Party (Anti-Communist), which would shortly evolve into the Democratic Labor Party. However, Bryson was defeated by Labor candidate Gordon Bryant, who went on to serve as Aboriginal Affairs Minister in the Whitlam government. When Bryant retired in 1980, the seat was used to accommodate Bob Hawke’s long-anticipated entry to parliament, enabling him to assume the prime ministership three years later.
Hawke resigned from parliament immediately after losing the leadership in December 1991, providing Paul Keating with an early electoral test in the form of a by-election for a seat the party had never lost before. The test was failed disastrously: in a record field of 22 candidates, local football identity Phil Cleary outpolled the Labor candidate 33.5% to 29.4%, prevailing by 15.7% after preferences. The result was declared void the following November when the High Court ruled Cleary had not been qualified to nominate as his job as a teacher constituted “an office of profit under the Crown”. The imminence of the 1993 election meant no new by-election was held, but Cleary won the seat at the ensuing election by a margin of 2.4%. Cleary’s position was subsequently weakened when redistribution pushed the seat westwards, and Labor candidate Kelvin Thomson provided his party with a rare highlight at the 1996 election when he polled 50.0% of the primary vote to prevail over Cleary by 5.8% after preferences.
A member of the Labor Unity (Right) faction, Thomson entered politics as the state member for Pascoe Vale in 1988, and served in the shadow ministry following the Kirner government’s defeat in 1992. He was elevated to the federal shadow ministry in 1997, serving in portfolios including environment and regional development. However, he resigned from the front bench in March 2007 when it emerged he had given a reference to colourful Melbourne identity Tony Mokbel. From February 2013 until the government’s defeat he served as a parliamentary secretary, first in the trade portfolio and then in schools after Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June, after which he returned to the back bench. Thomson supported Julia Gillard in the February 2012 leadership ballot, but was among those who defected to the Rudd camp in June 2013. Together with the rest of his faction, he supported Bill Shorten in the post-election leadership contest. While Thomson’s electoral position has at all times remained secure, the Greens achieved a minor milestone at the 2013 election when they finished ahead of the Liberals to secure second place, ending up 15.2% arrears after the distribution of preferences.
Those speculating about why Labor is not doing better in WA can put it down to Perth being Boom Town and changing demographics.
I jokingly note that many northern suburbs are more like South Joburg, and many of said Jappies (sorry, here we go again) bring their political attitudes with them.
When the pay dirt stops becoming pay dirt, Labor will maybe make up some ground.
Miners are no longer miners here but very rich individuals. They have little or no affinity with Labor of old.
Mind you, could be a change of State government but this depends on how tired the Barnett government becomes.
Federally, on a good day, with the wind behind them, perhaps two more Labor seats? But as one more seat is to be created here, who knows?
[This would largely result from the complete lack of detail required to support it & convince anyone it is a better option.]
Plus that significant components of direct action are highly speculative and scientifically unproven.
DA was supposed to get them through an election campaign with a fig leaf of coverage on AGW. It’s not for government when you’re supposed to be acting in the country’s national interest.
[Given that the sun has shown a slight cooling trend over the last few decades, we should be experiencing cooler conditions than we are.]
An inconvenient truth assiduously avoided by Grumpy True Disbelievers. They really dont like that if you accept their own emphasis on the “pause” it leads to the valid question:
Is something acting like a blanket around the planet and whats the best candidate for that?
BH@1380
Yes, I saw Wonder Woman ask David Feeney the wacko question, pointless journalism from her & she should have framed the question better, oh well we can only watch & wait for a better service from the ABC.
@BridgetOFlynn: Poll at end of article: Do you think Tony Abbott’s comments are damaging to Australia?
82% say yes.
#fool
http://t.co/DKC32nr0Oa
ModLib
AGAIN!
“We can discuss this when you get back but it is quite ridiculous to contend that I am shifting the goalposts when in my first post I talk about AGW not reaching the level of certainty and then in my second post I talk about AGW not reaching the level of certainty…”
No, you said the first time that there was uncertainty about whether CO2 was the main factor.
“If by AGW you are saying that human CO2 generation is the most significant factor driving temperatures higher then no, that has not reached the level of certainty.”
There is no uncertainty about that.
And again you don’t dispute or acknowledge that fact you just ignore it and make the discussion about you. Why?
Then you said
““All I am saying is that to imply that we have this all completely worked out and we know exactly that is happening to the climate and why is an overstatement of the level of certainty. ”
Which as I pointed out has never been a requirement for any science. And is actually quite different from the first statement
So you still don’t understand what you wrote….
I think you are hiding behind rhetoric, because you simply don’t understand what you are talking about.
Ciao all.
badcat – dawn patrol posts please, don’t be sacred off. 😉
imacca
[Its not rocket science, and the info is all out there for anyone to see]
Damn right, but it was in the days before LOTO Blood Oaf. It was not until I went to them though that I found out how the “big end of town” had been behind it since before 2000. Not only that there were farming group leaders supporting it. It was totally at odds with the wall to wall stuff that ,as Jon Stewart calls them, the “Murdoch propaganda machine” had been flooding the country with.
One wonders what sort of shite is going on behind the scenes. Back then in CPRS 1.0 days there were many billions waiting to be invested. They wanted certainty and were holding off until they had it. An Abbottabad PM will not give it to them. The attitude was that a carbon price is inevitable and there were lots of graphs and charts showing that the sooner it happened the less the effect on the economy.
I was a sciency guy but the boss kept sending me because of the side stuff for those working in the field of actually reducing emissions. Swamped by finance,accounting,power generators etc us science chaps had to huddle together 🙂
IPA made it onto media watch
[Astrobleme
Posted Monday, October 28, 2013 at 7:54 pm | PERMALINK
ModLib
“For example, CO2 continues to rise, whereas temperatures have not for the last 15 years.”
This is not actually true.
Just go and look at the GISS, HadCrut v4 or NCDC data]
You say this is not actually true, whereas your rebuttal simply imposes trend lines which show that the current values COULD be consistent with the long term trend, which, surprisingly, is EXACTLY what I said in the original post, that it might be a blip that will be corrected in coming years.
What I said was that in the last 15 years the temperatures have not risen, not that the last 15 years of data proves that there is no global warming. There is a difference there, in case you missed it!
Z
[AGW is about the soundest scientific theory we have. It’s sounder than the theory of gravity. ]
You have got to be kidding.
guytaur@1409
Comparing the Show ? Those damn leftie… kids SHOULD smoke…
Sorry – sorta – this is the abbott era…
[Astrobleme
……Which I pointed out was an unfair statement, as science never has anything ‘completely worked out’.]
So you claim that it is obvious that science never has anything ‘completely worked out’, yet you insult me for making the simple statement ” that has not reached the level of certainty” or “is an overstatement of the level of certainty. ”
OK, I think I got it! :devil:
“@tim_chr: .@TheRealPBarry is pushing hard for ACMA to be given more regulatory powers, including imposing fines against broadcasters. #mediawatch”
dave
😆
No IPA being attacked by Paul Barry with inference it is running government policy
[You have got to be kidding.]
Apparently not! :devil:
Because of the warping within the big bang or black holes, apparently there is doubt with gravity but not an iota of doubt about anything to do with global warming.
We have global warming all worked out to the level of perfection apparently 🙂
This will be of more than passing interest or it should be
http://pbxmastragics.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/csiro-report-into-home-insulation-scheme-aka-pink-batts.pdf
[What I said was that in the last 15 years the temperatures have not risen, ]
Which is factually incorrect ML.
The upward trend has been less over that period but has not been negative. Which like most science leads to other questions GTD’s find “difficult”.
And with that first question to Pyne, Qanda is turned off.
[What I said was that in the last 15 years the temperatures have not risen, not that the last 15 years of data proves that there is no global warming.]
Ah. Obsfucating again.
Look, ML, we’re wise to the game now – you say something which implies (and is commonly held to) something else and then you deny the implication.
mikehilliard
Ingrish not my best suit. Basically the Insurance companies would like to have the premiums for full replacement policies BUT the premiums for such policies means many cannot afford them.
Lose lose for the companies. Not getting the premiums for full insurance and getting arskeholes PR when in the case of total loss people’s houses are not replaced.
“@Thefinnigans: Tonight #qanda audience 40% hogwash 35% Crap and 25% Wacko”
ModLib
Temperatures have actually risen over the last fifteen years.
How are you measuring what constitutes a ‘rise’. By what metric do you say there is no rise? Show us how you compute there has been no rise.
My rebuttal just shows that the warming trend continues,in line with increasing CO2 emissions.
This may be ab better post for you as it explains Cherry Picking
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/cherry-picking-is-childs-play/
Z
[And, of course, when a patient’s belief system interferes with treatment which is life saving, doctors do over ride them.
]
Perhaps in your hospital but I have never seen a doctor override an adults wishes about treatment. There are laws about that kind of thing. Like assault.
MODlib
“So you claim that it is obvious that science never has anything ‘completely worked out’, yet you insult me for making the simple statement ” that has not reached the level of certainty” or “is an overstatement of the level of certainty. ””
Stop making this about you. I explained where you went wrong. Verballing me to make it sound like something else just makes you look foolish
Astrobleme @ 1423
Last time I asked that question, I was told you just need to eyeball the graph ;).
Interesting discussion on 4 Corners about whether electricity should be turned off during bushfires given the number of bushfires they cause.
The SA power guy says yes and they have done it. Vic says they would never do it.
Good slogan from student questioner. White blindfold view of history
Finns’ figures add up to 100%. Doesn’t he know the meaning of XOR?
Diog
Because in certain circumstances – mainly in outer space – gravity doesn’t work according to the theory.
…but ‘better accepted’ is probably more correct language.
[zoomster
Posted Monday, October 28, 2013 at 9:38 pm | PERMALINK
What I said was that in the last 15 years the temperatures have not risen, not that the last 15 years of data proves that there is no global warming.
Ah. Obsfucating again.
Look, ML, we’re wise to the game now – you say something which implies (and is commonly held to) something else and then you deny the implication.]
Ah, you are wise to the game, eh? I say something which implies something, do I?
Well, again, lets go to the original post and see (my bolding):
[Mod Lib
…If by AGW you are saying that the average temperatures are rising on long term trends, then yes, there is no doubt about that, and that human activity has increased CO2, yes, and that CO2 increases temperatures, yes.
If by AGW you are saying that human CO2 generation is the most significant factor driving temperatures higher then no, that has not reached the level of certainty. For example, CO2 continues to rise, whereas temperatures have not for the last 15 years. yes, it is probably just a blip, and temperatures will likely skyrocket soon to catch up for the blip and continue the trend…..but they might not. Something else might be happening that we have not worked out yet.
To say that everything is as certain as gravity is taking it a bit far IMO!]
I know you read it because you responded to it.
So what part of saying that it might be a blip and it might correct in the next few years, but the data shows a flattening out for the last 15 years is an attempt to “imply” anything?
I know you will continue to use slur, but when you refer to specific posts I am able to prove who is right and wrong, which at least is an improvement on other accusations!
guytaur@1415
Well the ABC let them in – gave them huge exposure on shows, without declarations of conflicts of interest, of connections to the faceless men financing them or to their links with ultra right wing loonies.
(Sorry ’bout that – they ARE faceless ultra right wing dangerous loonies)
ABC’s ability to look over the horizon = NIL.
Bend over ABC. You got it coming.
Pathetic.
Wow Pyne dissing Ray Martin!!
@michaelkoziol: We looked at the claim that the history curriculum had been politicised by Labor. We found it False: http://t.co/NEsffb4KYl #qanda
Z
[Because in certain circumstances – mainly in outer space – gravity doesn’t work according to the theory.]
It is about 99.99% accurate under extreme circumstances. Under almost all other circumstances it is considered 100% accurate.
The IPCC says it is 97% sure AGW is happening.
It’s not even in the same ballpark as a theory.
dave
I commented because it was a notable exception
[Astrobleme
Posted Monday, October 28, 2013 at 9:40 pm | PERMALINK
MODlib
“So you claim that it is obvious that science never has anything ‘completely worked out’, yet you insult me for making the simple statement ” that has not reached the level of certainty” or “is an overstatement of the level of certainty. ””
Stop making this about you. I explained where you went wrong. Verballing me to make it sound like something else just makes you look foolish]
Haha 🙂
Stop making this about me while you continue to direct insults at me.
I am afraid that I am very familiar with these tactics and I am not going to allow you to insult me and not point out the inconsistencies in your own positions!
If you don’t like it, I guess that is your problem!
guytaur:
If Pyne is true to form Qanda will end up being the Pyne Hour.
Anyone else care about the CSIRO report on the HIP?
The government is doing its level best to bury it.
confessions
Jones is letting it happen
If Jones is true to form this will be the Pyne Hour.
Jones actually asking what are you going to do of Pyne
1 1/2 million houses insulated. Anyone ask them what they think about the program and their electricity bills?
Thought not.
guytaur@1437
Not having a go at you guytaur, by any means 🙂
Diog
[Perhaps in your hospital but I have never seen a doctor override an adults wishes about treatment. ]
I’m probably thinking about minors, and blood transfusions. Vague understanding that it’s reasonably common practice to make them wards of the state when parents won’t allow procedures for religious reasons.
[Anyone else care about the CSIRO report on the HIP?]
Yup, but read it when it came out.
[The government is doing its level best to bury it.]
Which may be a bit difficult if they insist on an inquiry / witch-hunt into the matter. Could turn into serious own goal. 🙂
Media Watch pointing out that ACMA cannot fine or direct any action against a presenter.
Compare the death rate under the HIP with that under Howie? Thought not!