Labor’s leadership selection process has concluded with a narrow win for Bill Shorten, whose decisive victory in the caucus vote was enough to outweigh rank-and-file support for Anthony Albanese. As foreshadowed in news reportage over the past two days, Shorten’s caucus support was in the fifties, at 55 votes against 31 for Albanese. The rank-and-file ballot attracted 18,230 votes for Albanese against 12,196 for Shorten. With each accounting for 50% of the total, the final score reads thus:
Caucus Branches Total Bill Shorten 63.95% 40.08% 52.02% Anthony Albanese 36.05% 59.92% 47.98%
Yes
I heard from someone who is usually close to correct, that if Albo had the NSW vote % replicated in Victoria he would be leader.
It suits rAbbott to have the legislation repealing the carbon price delayed.
The longer it remains the longer he has the revenue to pay for the tax cuts that were compensation.
A new report says the federal government’s mandate to axe the carbon price would cost $2 billion in returns to polluters
Once the legislation is repealed he will have to find $6.5billion in the claimed budget emergency.
Official state break downs would be interesting.
AA
Abbott is doing Tea Party economics. As we have seen from the US that leads to budget emergencies.
ru
As you said earlier, people are most definitely underestimating Bill Shorten
[Hilarious. Albanese fails to win poisoned chalice, Twitter explodes in fury.— Bernard Keane (@BernardKeane) October 13, 2013]
AA –
This is true, but it’s a fairly modest issue in the scheme of things.
Yes, Abbott is probably quite happy to go through the motions of repealing the carbon price late this year, expecting that the ALP/Greens will knock the repeal back.
Then he can come back to it with the new Senate … given that will be, at the earliest, latish 2014 you’d have to say the repeal will apply from July 2015, so there’s 2 years of revenue from the carbon price to help the budget out.
From Abbott’s perspective he can blame the ALP for delaying the repeal. I imagine he thinks, or the LNP brains trust thinks, that that will make him very popular.
I guess we’ll see about that.
So LNP in. Australia misses out.
@euromoney: Finance Minister of the Year 2013: Singapore’s Tharman Shanmugaratnam http://t.co/2umyJn4xIi cc. @SwannyQLD
Keane is being his usual stoopid self. Shorten will lead the ALP to the next election, the 75% rule guarantees it.
Chainsaw boooed at Bathurst.
ru
Keane aint the only one. There seems to be a lot of that sentiment floating about
AT THE CRIKEY BATHURST 1000
Matt White “Well boys, that’s the Great Race over for another year. Before we close, tell us what were the outstanding moments for you …
Skaife ” For me, the complete domination of the POLL BLUDGER Team. They had a couple of driver changes earlier in the year but all is looking good now. The winning move in todays race was when co-driver Chris Bowen handed over to the little master, Bill Shorten to bring it home for a big win Their vehicle – the LABOUR GTHO – it is just streets ahead of the opposition and the PBs pit crew and support staff is just so competent and tight. They have been #1 all year and just blew all comers into the weeds today”
Crompo ” The big disappointment for me was the TROLL team – they have a couple of reasonable drivers in Crank and Mick77 – but they cant make up for the obvious fact that their vehicle – the LIBERAL GTS – is a out of date dogs breakfast in every system and they need to come up with a better vehicle…… and on top of that, their Team Manager has been pinged by Race Control for trying to claim a $10,000 charter flight expense from Sydney to Bathurst from the organisers …… DUMB ! ”
Larko ” Hands down – the Tisme dummy spit at the post – race awards …. I mean Tisme got the *William Bowe Wooden Spanner* for coming last – the fans were booing – and when he jumped up, grabbed the microphone and exploded ” Youse are all a pack of arseholes and dickheads” – just sheer Tisme classic gold ”
Matt White ” Thanks boys – until the Crikey Gold Coast 600 – cyall soon”
victoria
As long as Shorten does what he appears to be doing and reaching out to the left that feeling will die down.
If the right dominates again as in the past then disunity will return.
52/48?
That’s 3 more than the one vote by Abbott/Turnbull.
victoria:
Everyone is assuming that because first term governments are rarely not returned for a second term, that the coalition will be re-elected in 2016.
But after the last 4 years, and given Abbott is not popular, and that his govt is not getting the typical honeymoon awarded to newly elected governments, I’m not sure why anyone would assume that with any confidence.
I would be asking Albo to retain the Deputy Leader gig he had before the election.
badcat
Good one!
[But after the last 4 years, and given Abbott is not popular, and that his govt is not getting the typical honeymoon awarded to newly elected governments, I’m not sure why anyone would assume that with any confidence.]
And keep in mind that the Prime Minister of the Abbott government is Tony Abbott.
DisplayName
You are of cause right, lets hope the right haven’t stuffed it up again.
confessions
Agreed
Can anyone remember what the weighting was re Caucus and the membership?
I have a memory of it being something like 350 meaning that each Caucus vote was worth one vote from the membership.
Stand corrected if I am wrong.
[ I’m not sure why anyone would assume that with any confidence.]
Because if the voters will return a government that knifed a 1st term PM, well, they really will accept anything wont they. Labor ran a term too long.
[Can anyone remember what the weighting was re Caucus and the membership?]
It was an addition of two percentages divided by two.
Nemspy
Although you’d think this method would entrench the leader, Albo know he only needs to shift three caucus votes to unseat Shorten if things aren’t going all that well.
“350 votes from the membership”
MTBW
There were two ballots each with the same value.
Ballot 1 Members
Ballot 2 Caucus.
The % of votes in each ballot were added. There was no weighting between the two.
9
The 75% rule applies to PMs.
There is a 60% rule for Opposition leaders.
Shorten thus still cannot be challenged but Albanese could have if he had collected enough more membership votes to win.
rua
Can you explain that?
Badcat, nice!
MTBW
Yes it was about 350:1.
I’m not convinced it’s a great look to have a leader the members voted against by 60:40.
Caucus clearly is out of step with the rest of the party. Or the other way around. 😉
24
He also would need to be able to get 60% of the Caucus to vote for a vote.
[Nemspy
Although you’d think this method would entrench the leader, Albo know he only needs to shift three caucus votes to unseat Shorten if things aren’t going all that well.]
You honestly think the membership ballot would be exactly the same if Albo challenges a first term opposition leader?
If he did that there would be a lot of people pissed off with him.
[Although you’d think this method would entrench the leader, Albo know he only needs to shift three caucus votes to unseat Shorten if things aren’t going all that well.]
Bollocks as usual. There needs to be a 75% supported caucus ballot to bring on a spill in opposition. If you comment on the process, have the decency to understand it.
How do the Secular Party elect their leader?
Tom
I forgot the 60% rule. That makes it almost impossible for Albo to take over.
[I’m not convinced it’s a great look to have a leader the members voted against by 60:40.
Caucus clearly is out of step with the rest of the party. Or the other way around. ;)]
How is that worse than the Liberal or National parties that don’t give their members a vote at all?
[“I have thanked her for her magnanimity but declined to accept her resignation,”]
What an excellent decision, high praise to Abbott.
ru
[Bollocks as usual. There needs to be a 75% supported caucus ballot to bring on a spill in opposition. If you comment on the process, have the decency to understand it.]
Is it 75% or 60% to bring on a spill in Opposition?
@rummel/36
lol, must because of his sacking of bracks.
rummel
Probably for the first time in his life Abbott has displayed a bit of grace.
[Under an amendment to Mr Rudd’s reform proposal, the caucus threshold required to bring on a leadership spill was watered down from 75 per cent to 60 per cent for Labor opposition leaders…]
This amendment will be voted on tomorrow.
[MTBW
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 5:18 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
Probably for the first time in his life Abbott has displayed a bit of grace.]
Plenty more to come as well.
Reposted from end of other thread:
I think this is a historic pattern that people forecast will continue with over-confidence. The closest two governments to have been one-termers have been he last two. Now that’s obviously not enough to form a strong trend on, but with so few data points it certainly looks like it may be a new regime, and there are other reasons for thinking the electorate is more volatile than it used to be. I think there is a good chance that one-term administrations are more likely than they used to be, but people act as if the old pattern is unchanged.
SO
[How is that worse than the Liberal or National parties that don’t give their members a vote at all?]
Because now we know for certain Caucus is out of step with the party. And we know by exactly how much.
We don’t know that for the other parties.
This kind of ballot is a double-edged sword.
Well those MP’s will need to return top their seats and explain themselves.
I think there would be many who voted against Shorten solely as punishment for being a player in two leadership changes.
If Shorten is able to get on with the job and past experience indicates that he is a hard working MP and Minister he may win over many of them.
No political leader is universal loved despite Kroger claiming Tone has no enemies in the Liberal Party which we all know is bunk
A lot of resolutions put in the last Caucus meeting were deliberately not voted on, it was seen as not proper to impose rules on a post election Caucus.
rummel
I doubt it very much – he is what he is and that ain’t graceful!
Really, what does Abbott give up by not accepting her resignation? Her term expires in March of 2014.
Not much at all …
[
46
MTBW
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 5:23 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
I doubt it very much – he is what he is and that ain’t graceful!]
Im going to enjoy Abbott V Shorten in Parliament.
[How is that worse than the Liberal or National parties that don’t give their members a vote at all?]
a their members don’t give a shit
b their members do what they’re told
I hope they do away with that threshold.
Dio
And now caucus knows too. Previously, they either didn’t know, could deny it or claim it didn’t matter. They can’t do any of those things now.