Developments of various kinds in the field of vote-counting:
• Labor’s month-long leadership election campaign is finally drawing to a close, with caucus having determined its 50% share of the total vote yesterday and around 25,000 rank-and-file ballots to be counted on Sunday. Reports suggest that Bill Shorten has won at least 50 out of the 86 votes in the party room, receiving the undivided support of a Right which had been polarised during the Gillard-Rudd stand-off. By contrast, David Crowe of The Australian reports that Left members including Warren Snowdon, Brendan O’Connor, Kate Lundy, Laurie Ferguson, Maria Vamvakinou, Julie Owens and newly elected Bendigo MP Lisa Chesters have failed to fall in behind Albanese. Tea-leaf reading from party sources quoted around the place suggests Bill Shorten will do best if a large number of votes are received from his relatively strong states of Victoria and Western Australia, with most other states (together with the ACT, which punches above its weight in terms of ALP membership) considered strongholds for Albanese.
• ReachTEL published a poll yesterday of 891 respondents in New South Wales and Victoria showing Anthony Albanese favoured over Shorten by 60.9-39.1 in New South Wales and 54.0-46.0 in Victoria. Each had slight leads over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister in Victoria and slight deficits in New South Wales. Results on voting intention confirmed the general impression from the limited national polling in finding no honeymoon bounce for the new government.
• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn has ordered a recount of above-the-line votes for the Western Australian Senate, which will change the result of two Senate seats if a 14-vote gap between the Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians parties is reversed. Also under review are votes declared informal the first time around, which is always a grey area. Tireless anonymous blogger TruthSeeker has performed good work in identifying count peculiarities potentially significant enough to turn the result, including a popular favourite known as the “Waggrakine discrepancy”.
• The Fairfax recount limps with the Clive Palmer camp apparently challenging any vote that doesn’t go its way, thereby requiring it to be sent for determination by the state electoral officer in Brisbane. AAP reports the result “won’t be known for at least another week”.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has let rip with its first post-election poll of national voting intention, and it continues an unbroken run of such polling in plotting a position for the Coalition south of what it achieved at the election, however slightly. Coming off a large-even-for-ReachTEL sample of 3600, it shows the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 52.1-47.9, compared with roughly 53.5-46.5 at the election, from primary votes of 45.4% for the Coalition (45.6% at the election), 35.3% for Labor (33.4%) and 8.6% for the Greens (unchanged). Tony Abbott’s performance is rated good by 40.5% and poor by 40.2%.
Psephos @1145 – no need to ring – he’ll just Tweet it.
CTar1@1143
It is amazing how his detractors seem to credit him with super human powers such as the ability to stare down the whole of cabinet.
Think about it.
Oh well, comrades, another 24 hours and we will know the new Labor Leader who News will then proceed to attack and drag up ‘scandals’ from the past.
They are the pits.
With the NBN I thought Abbott and Turnbull had done a costing of the RealNBN when they stood in front of Australians and told all that it would cost $90 billion. That the Co4 Fraudband would cost a third of that.
Then after the election out trots Turnbull announcing there will be a review of the costs.
The choice is to build an NBN that will serve Australia into the future or build the C04 Fraudband that will require millions per year in maintenance and upgrading into the future. An NBN that on completion can be sold for a profit, or Fraudband that when sold will still require Govt financial support for the crap copper
oh oh ….someones left the gate open ….
Citizen @1148 van Insolent is no Coalition booster – he’s a grandstander with an axe to grind against the Coalition.
Yet more examples of the media and ALP suffering relevance deprivation syndrome.
[Think about it.]
Seen it.
Not gone enough.
[Oh well, comrades, another 24 hours and we will know the new Labor Leader who News will then proceed to attack and drag up ‘scandals’ from the past.
They are the pits.]
Yeah like 2006 Wedding expenses! Oh wait they did that to Abbott.
I do look forward to hearing about all the expenses of Albo/ShortenD as well.
[With the NBN]
Labor promised in their 2010 NBN Corp Plan that 1.26 Million people would be on fibre by July 2013.
Actual amount? 200,000
[It is amazing how his detractors seem to credit him with super human powers such as the ability to stare down the whole of cabinet.]
You actually don’t know very much about politics, do you?
Any newly-elected PM has enormous prestige and can get their own way on just about anything as long as their internal honeymoon lasts. Hawke got Holding and Cohen in his ministry even though Caucus didn’t elect them. Fraser, Howard, Rudd – all did as they pleased until the sheen started to wear off. Hence Caucus’s weak and foolish acceptance of Rudd’s abolition of an elected ministry, which was really the first obvious sign of his megalomania.
Shorn
[I do look forward to hearing about all the expenses of Albo/ShortenD as well.]
I’m sure you need a hand up.
bemused @1152 – when Rudd took the power to appoint the Cabinet from the factions/Unions it was a new thing. Cabinet Ministers held their position at the whim of a sociopath – in that case, who would be the one to put their seat at the table and a massive pay cut on the line?
Imagine the phone call to the partner after you’d been chopped – “You did what? WTF were you thinking – let someone else take the knife – no nooky for you for about six months, MENSA candidate.”
[living close to two – it is a significant problem at dropoff and pick up times.]
Addmittedly so, but more or less of a problem than having female workers hold off going back to their jobs because they can’t find childcare? I’d go with less.
Footscray?
[865
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 8:05 am | PERMALINK
psyclaw
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 7:32 am | PERMALINK
PBers
Help!
Again, avoiding the question and being patronising! 3 points for consisyency, I guess!!!
lets try again….only took 5 days to get an answer last time:
OK- so you knew about the NSW Health Meal Entertainment Scheme befor you posted your “utter crap” comment on Oct 7th you say, well:
Did you know that wedding catering was eligible in the scheme?]
For god’s sake. You are an utter pain in the arse.
Good to see the Nobel Peace Prize maintaining its’ consistency – giving it to an organisation failing at doing its’ job.
CC
[magine the phone call to the partner after you’d been chopped]
Back in your ex-tank.
Straight vanking.
bemused, I was going to say that the way things went down it does make one wonder whether they all just sat there quietly stewing until things exploded, but I see Psephos seems to have answered that.
How much has Hockey borrowed to address the budget emergency?
AA @1169 – I’m sure the ALP will produce the numbers and point out how bad they are because . . .
I note that Abbott still has not done anything about having sitting dates for HoR
[nd point out how bad they are because . . .]
There’s dickheads out there who will vote against their own best interests?
because Abbott and Hockey spent a lot of time ranting about Labor borrowing, the debt level and debt ceiling.
Yet they have done nothing….if things were so bad (sic) then why hasn’t Hockey produced a mini-budget to fix the problem(sic)?
AA
[why hasn’t Hockey produced a mini-budget]
Too dumb.
[I note that Abbott still has not done anything about having sitting dates for HoR]
The House must sit within 30 days of the return of the writs. The writs for Qld can’t be returned until the recount in Fairfax is concluded.
Richie – ” Whats happening out there, Bill?”
Bill – ” Its all happening, Richie – cranks gone for the big tonk over mid-wicket and has been caught on the boundary by Ctari …… now tisme’s come in to steady the ship …. The crowd are loving it – apart from a few brawlers in the outer in Bay 13 …….
Here comes the drink cart …..
[I note that Abbott still has not done anything about having sitting dates for HoR
The House must sit within 30 days of the return of the writs. The writs for Qld can’t be returned until the recount in Fairfax is concluded.]
Maybe that’s part of Clive’s plan to delay any legislation until he gets funding for the political staffers he wants.
DisplayName@1168
I think you are correct without Psephos’s non-answer.
How do you see him as having provided an answer other than confirming the spinelessness of cabinet members?
One of the good things we are seeing now is that both Shorten and Albo have alluded to a more collegial form of leadership. I am surprised anyone in cabinet either believed in Führerprinzip or submitted to it, but according to Psephos they apparently did. Shame on them.
No idea if this relates to only coalition MPs
[More tips arriving about federal MPs’ curious expenses, including more weddings. Next week should be interesting!— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) October 12, 2013]
bad
[Here comes the drink cart …..]
Has it got real Claret?
CTar1
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 2:33 pm | Permalink
Here comes the drink cart …..
Has it got real Claret?
———————————————
you get the best Ctari – catch of the day …
[I am surprised anyone in cabinet either believed in Führerprinzip or submitted to it, but according to Psephos they apparently did. Shame on them.]
But no blame, of course, can possibly attach to the Führer.
Shopping time.
*Exit
The House must sit within 30 days of the return of the writs. The writs for Qld can’t be returned until the recount in Fairfax is concluded.
I don’t recall who it was they said ‘they think little of a man who does not learn one thing a day’ (or something like that)
I have learned one thing today
[Roxanna
…..For god’s sake. You are an utter pain in the arse.]
Psyclaw went out of his or her way to attack me (my post was not directed to psyclaw at all) so I have every right to defend myself….whether you like it or not! :devil:
bad
A long while ago I met a ‘Crown Hotels’ employee who was in charge of ‘food & beverages’.
A trip to France was a madness thing!
Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people.
I think we can all plead guilty.
[More tips arriving about federal MPs’ curious expenses, including more weddings. Next week should be interesting!— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) October 12, 2013]
Newt week there will be a huge story on the crisis facing the wedding industry – no demand for wedding receptions as guests turn down invitations because they can no longer claim attendance as a business expense.
CTar1
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 2:41 pm | Permalink
bad
A long while ago I met a ‘Crown Hotels’ employee who was in charge of ‘food & beverages’.
A trip to France was a madness thing!
————————————–
I cook with wine, sometimes I even add it to the food.
[citizen
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 2:45 pm | PERMALINK
More tips arriving about federal MPs’ curious expenses, including more weddings. Next week should be interesting!— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) October 12, 2013]
Yikes, I hope Eddie Obeid’s family hasn’t had any recent weddings! :devil:
Stanhope doesn’t like the ALP Border Protection Policy – are we expecting the ALP to change direction on this now? Demand the closure of processing centres?
Mod Lib @1189 – That would be Skiing Weddings.
CC@1081
Honesty = which is more than most conservatives can cope with.
Just a cop out from your side at the moment.
All ‘crisis’ five weeks ago to ‘have patience’ now.
Pleasing to see you are on the backfoot.
Tricot @1192 – no backfoot about it – perfectly balanced Kim Hughes style cover driving to the boundary.
[.@jonathanvswan Interested in Abbott’s new bike.Hillbricks made it for him. Cost Between $12000> $20000. He opened Hillbricks’ new premises.— Bridget O’Flynn (@BridgetOFlynn) October 12, 2013]
A reminder for those interested. Peter Slipper will be interviewed on Insiders tomorrow with Barrie Cassidy.
bad
It wasn’t a terrible weekend out.
‘Stuff’ happened.
And constantly being caught at deep square and deep backward square like him too I guess.
However, in as much as it pains me, I have to agree with you, he was a brilliant batsman if a somewhat fragile leader.
But then he had to cope with white-anting from the likes of Lillee and others.
That he cried in public meant he was finished in the eyes of all Aussie blokes.
His six off….can’t remember the English trundler now – at Lords, right over his head, was a champagne cricket moment for me.
Pity Test Cricket such as this is a thing of the past.
– no backfoot about it – perfectly balanced Kim Hughes style cover driving to the boundary.
……………………………………
– and we all know what a blubbering loser he ended up as …
Like Laurie Oaks said about Abbot – “it will all end up in tears” –
A hearty hello from Dublin to Poll Bludgers.
There is a stark contrast here with respect to the absence of petty political reporting.
Guinness does taste good when imbibed in a centuries old small pub and being surrounded by cheerful Irish folk.
It seems that our pinstriped pin up Hartcher has excelled himself this weekend with his article about Abbott’s amazing I transformation from Opposition thug to polished, lily white international statesman.
Bye for now.
Hi BK
Great to hear from you. Have fun!!!!! 🙂