Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research remains the only regularly reporting opinion poll in town, and it continues to show the Coalition with a weaker lead than they scored at the election.

Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.

UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,828 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. ST

    [Abbott has used his rorts legally, fully, within the boundary of the law]
    Yeah right , little things like using taxpayers money for a tour of personal gain promoting his book. At least until after kicking and screaming ,twice, he was forced paid back a lazy $10,000.

  2. Tisme

    You are lucky I’m going to respond to your joke of a post at 1643.

    1. Expenses that are allowable applies equally to all members of parliament. Many of the Liberals including Brandis and Abbott have proven themselves to be world class hypocrites on the matter.

    2. Abbott has claimed expenses on the taxpayer that are clearly unallowable deductions.

    3. If you think Rudd and Gillard have claimed $2million more than Abbott on unallowable deductions – you are either a simplistic moron or are making shit up, to use your terminology.

    Of the two, I’m betting that you are a simplistic moron!

  3. Centre 1632

    I don’t think it’s black and white.

    For example, the plane hires to Bathurst n Tamworth from Sydney seem to be absolute rip offs, but until he gives an explanation which is tested (eg by a competent investigative journo) we don’t know for sure whether that was his only option.

    And as I wrote yesterday, his many many claims for his physical jerks hobby may or may not be fair enough, depending on whether he fitted his “exercise” in with a legit duty, or whether or not he “found” an excuse for a “duty” to justify a claim for what was really a priori a hobby pursuit.

  4. [It’s good to educate yourself with the truth sometimes:]

    Idiot.

    If you need an explanation of why you are an idiot, it proves you are an idiot.

  5. There is even a nice little breakdown of each area of spending if you click the detailed expenses.

    Dillard spent $1.1 Mill alone on a office fit out. Hope it’s a nice office!

  6. any one notice how abbott shakes hand then he crabbed the ladies elbow

    don’t ever re call seeing that before,

    and I thought I caught site of peta is she there to

  7. [

    Dillard spent $1.1 Mill alone on a office fit out. Hope it’s a nice office!
    ]
    Yeah and she took them all back to her pad in Altona πŸ˜†

  8. psyclaw

    I made 4 posts last night on allowable expenses, 996, 1003, 1005 and 1012.

    I believe it is black and white, unless you can prove otherwise with an example 😎

  9. So the latest defence is all expenses are rorts. It laughable even for an idiot.

    “Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error.”
    Marcus Tullius Cicero

  10. Normally I would say a new government and PM should be allowed time to find their feet. Tha
    t’s how I felt in 1996 when a John Howard became PM. Also, misdeeds from decades ago are not normally particularly relevant. But in the case of Tony Abbott, he is entitled to as much leeway as he allowed others. I want to see him humiliated over his rorts, preferably hounded out of office and out of Parliament. I want to see the wall punching incident revisited, I want to see all his youthful misdeeds raked over, including his thuggish behaviour as a right wing student activist and his abandonment of his pregnant girlfriend. Tony Abbott, the least person ever to become Australian PM.

  11. [Kiera ‏@KieraGorden 51m
    Once o’seas travel removed from this snapshot, the comparison is even more telling! #AusPol via @juliemela pic.twitter.com/prnUYKWPcP ]
    Gillard vs Abbott

  12. ruawake

    [β€œAny man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error.”
    Marcus Tullius Cicero]
    Bloody hell,so Albert Einstein plagiarised Cicero when he came out with his “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” . You learn something everyday. Thank you for that

  13. ,em>Tony Abbott, the least person ever to become Australian PM.

    Perfect, not least capable, not least deserving, not least honorable – just the least full stop.

  14. Tisme you are a laughing stock.

    Any renovations or office furniture ordered by former PM’s does not personally belong to those former PM’s.

  15. [,em>Tony Abbott, the least person ever to become Australian PM.

    Perfect, not least capable, not least deserving, not least honorable – just the least full stop.]

    You are much too generous

  16. [
    QUEENSLAND will be a senator down until February after Premier Campbell Newman again delayed senator-elect Barry O’Sullivan’s parliamentary endorsement.

    Premier Campbell Newman today maintained he supported Mr O’Sullivan’s nomination to replace former senator Barnaby Joyce, who moved to the Lower House, but believed the Queensland public would not accept his appointment until he was cleared by the Crime and Misconduct Commission.]

    No big deal, Joyce did not represent Qld so why hurry for a replacement. πŸ™

  17. Hilarious. The Seppos are going to have their very own “Convoy of no Consequence” .Truckers are going to protest about Obamacare. Fox calls it “possibly the biggest traffic jam in human history” πŸ˜† .

  18. Centre

    I gave two examples at #1654.

    Which of these do you say is black and white, and on what basis.

    At this stage since we don’t have any details except the actual claim per se, who knows whmether they’re legit or not.

  19. Psyclaw

    If an expense is related to your position as an MP it is allowable, if it’s not related to your position as an MP then it is not allowable.

    Could you be more specific with your post in question?

  20. I think I heard earlier today Bowen say, when asked by journo what he thought of the new government, wtte well they haven’t done any governing yet – hilarious.

  21. Ha Ha must be driving the Journo’s mad.

    [Labor votes in leadership ballot between Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten but no result till Sunday]

    Fancy the members and supporters of the Party knowing the result before the pond life, how bizarre.

  22. Centre

    If it emerges that the Pug Monkey had an official invitation appropriately processed to open the Pt Macquarie event and said to hisself “this is great. i’ll open it and go in it too”, then IMHO it’s legit.

    Problem is, we don’t know these details, so it’s not black or white.

    On the other hand if he hisself sets up mickey mouse official duties to fit in with a triathalon he wants to compete in, then it’s not legit. Again, till we know details, it’s not black n white matter.

    Another example is the Polly Pedal. Do u think that one is black n white. To me it’s effin suspicious, but I am open to argument that he does “official” things each day along the way.

    At my city he formally visited a school n gave a little speech about our Parl processes. Again the question is whether his participation is of the nature ” i love Polly Pedal ……. 10 days straight of exercise ….. great …..now to make it legit I’ll get staffer to organise a “formal” event for half an hour each day”.

    At this stage we just don’t know. At least I don’t.

    As one who totally disrespects the jerk, i’m not about to let him off anything ……. Hope he’s guilty as hell. But I don’t know (yet).

  23. The “rules” say Parliamentary stuff OK, Committee stuff OK, electorate stuff OK.

    Abbott going to the triathlon ticks none of these boxes. It was campaigning, and should have been paid for by the Liberal Party or Abbott.

  24. psyclaw

    The point that I’m making is that once details of an expense are known, whether or nor it is related to the position of the MP, that claim becomes black or white.

  25. I have seen Chris Bowen I/Vd about half a dozen times whilst acting boss. And another few on radio.

    He has been ultra competent IMHO.

    Labor really had / has a glut of potential leaders and the future looks good.

    In class, the Labor pool for ministers/future leaders shits on the conservos from a great height. I can count 10 of them without trying.

    In contrast the conservos have the likes of Cormann, o’Dwyer, Cash, smarmy Keenan, etc as the next gen. No comparison.

  26. By the standards that he applies to others, Tony Abbott cannot accept his own ‘tainted vote’. After all, allegations have been made.

    The Southerly change has just passed through Point Perpendicular (Jervis Bay) about 150 km South of Sydney as the crow flies. It dropped the temperature by 9 degrees in 15 minutes.

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