Seat of the week: Kennedy

One of the election’s surprises was the tough fight Bob Katter had getting re-elected in his north Queensland family fiefdom of Kennedy.

Teal numbers indicate majority for Liberal National Party. Grey indicates Katter’s Australian Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy covers 568,993 square kilometres of northern Queensland, accounting for over 30% of the state’s surface area. It covers two disconnected coastal areas, one being a 250 kilometre stretch of the east coast from the southern suburbs of Cairns through Innisfail to Toomulla 35 kilometres north Townsville, the other being the thinly populated Gulf of Carpentaria coast from the Northern Territory border to the southern part of Cape York Peninsula. The remainder encompasses rural and outback territory including Mount Isa and most of the Northern Territory border.

Kennedy was one of 16 seats out of 75 which Labor won at the first federal election in 1901, and it remained in Labor hands until Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis was elected unopposed after sitting member Charles McDonald died during the 1925 election campaign. This prompted the change in the Electoral Act which causes the poll for a given electorate to be cancelled and held at a later time if a candidate dies during the campaign, which most recently had effect in Newcastle at the 1998 election. Francis retained the seat at the 1928 election, but it returned to Labor when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. It next changed hands in 1966 when the national anti-Labor swing combined with the loss of retiring veteran William Riordan’s personal vote delivered a narrow victory to the Country Party candidate, Bob Katter Sr.

Katter’s majority increased at each of the next five elections, and he was further boosted when the 1969 redistribution removed Labor-voting Bowen and added Charters Towers. The 1984 redistribution was less kind, returning the seat to the marginal zone by pushing it into the southern reaches of the Cape York Peninsula. It returned to Labor for one term when Katter retired in 1990, the winning member being Rob Hulls, later to return to politics in Victoria as a senior figure in the Bracks-Brumby government. Hulls was defeated at the 1993 election by Bob Katter Jr, who had represented the local area in state parliament since 1974. Katter cemented his position with a double-digit swing in 1996, and his primary vote increased further after he parted company with the Nationals ahead of the 2001 election.

Katter comfortably topped the poll at next three elections, although he faded from 47.1% to 39.5% in 2007 before rebounding to 46.7% in 2010. The 2010 election result left him as one of three rural independents holding the balance of power in a hung parliament, and he appeared to play the most adroit game of the three in unenthusiastically declaring his hand for the Coalition after the determination of the other two to back Labor had rendered it a moot point. He then set about expanding his political empire with the establishment of Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the Queensland state election of March 2012 amid a collapse in support for Labor and elected two members: his son Robbie Katter to the seat of Mount Isa, and former Liberal National Party member Shane Knuth to his existing seat of Dalrymple.

However, the rise of Katter’s Australian Party was firmly checked at the 2013 election, at which its vote across Queensland was just 3.7% and its bid to get country singer James Blundell elected to the Senate was singularly unsuccessful. Most disappointingly of all for the party, Katter struggled to win re-election in Kennedy for the first time, his primary vote down 17.4% to 29.3% against 40.8% for Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin, the former chief executive of the Northern Gulf Resource Management Group. Katter prevailed after preferences by a margin of 2.1%, down 16.2% from 2010. The poor performance was variously attributed to the advertising budget and related electoral success of the Palmer United Party, and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,264 comments on “Seat of the week: Kennedy”

Comments Page 3 of 66
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  1. So where did Christopher Pyne do his education degree? Does he realise what a terrible profession school teaching is? Recently somebody I know decided to go into school teaching- after doing her prac in an inner western Sydney school she quickly changed her mind. She said it was more like being a police officer than an educator. The more difficult they make the entry requirements, the more likely there is to be a shortage.

  2. sprocket_
    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 9:20 am | Permalink
    Adam Collins ‏@collinsadam 49s
    I’ve seen some awful North Melbourne Grand Final breakfast speeches over the years. But this phoned-in effort from Abbott the clear worst

    the National Embarrassment
    =================================================

    the national embarrassment what a great name for twitter

    I can see him being the first . to be booooooooood at the footy

    id love it ,

  4. victoria

    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    AA

    Remember the coalition mantra of just pick up the phone to Nauru?
    ——————————————————

    Remember it well. That was when Abbott was telling all and sundry it was sitting there ready. It turned out that it wasn’t anything like ready and cost millions to renovate.

    And then Abbott was ranting that Malaysia shouldn’t be used because it was not a signatory to the UN Convention. But he was advocating the use of Nauru from 2001 when it was not a signatory to the UN Convention until June 2011.

    And in the end the Government re-introduced the so-called Pacific Solution that Abbott and his screeching supporters had been demanding – and the boats still kept coming.

    Abbott and his sycophant supporters failed to recognise or acknowledge that refugee numbers had more than doubled and increased to around 23,000 per day since 2001. Just purely on that the numbers were going to increase. Liberals living in the past

  7. Pyne – one of the most useless Shadow Ministers even to enter Parliaments doors.

    Three questions in 3 years.

    And Dutton just as useless as Health Shadow, not a question in over 1,000 days

  9. I rarely agree with ESJ, but he’s right on this:

    Pretty simple equation

    Stop boats = Abbott wins
    Boats keep coming = Abbott loses

    I’ve said before that ALP supporters should be careful about how much weight they put on this issue – the ALP has no solutions to offer (beyond the PNG solution), and it’s in the ALP’s interests for the boats to stop and this issue to ‘go away’. The more noise that is made about this, the greater the perceived challenge to Abbott is, and the greater his ‘win’ when he stops the boats, as seems likely.

    There are many other things to attack Abbott over – NBN, Direct Action rubbish, throwing the environment under a bus for CSG and Newman and Gina, PPL rubbish, accountability in infrastructure funding, reinstating FBT rorts, boosting spivs and shonks through dismantling regulation – even attacking over the new ‘secret squirrel’ crap – but not his intent/ability to actually try to stop boats, particularly not at this early stage.

  10. [And then Abbott was ranting that Malaysia shouldn’t be used because it was not a signatory to the UN Convention. But he was advocating the use of Nauru from 2001 when it was not a signatory to the UN Convention until June 2011.]

    It was Gillard the Dillard that said we couldn’t send illegals to Nauru because it wasn’t a UN Refugee Signatory and that therefore we had to send them to East Timor (LOLZ! FAIL!)

    Then Nauru signed up for the UN Refugee Convention… then Gillard the Dillard said we can’t send them to Nauru because well umm… errr.. cos we can’t! But we can now send them to Malaysia… ohh but they aren’t a U.N Refugee Signatory! OOPS!

    Labor is so full of spin and bullshit and the Coalition played their inconsistencies like a fiddle.

  13. Jackol

    There is no one solution to the issue of people smugglers. The Labor party have repeatedly stated that regional agreement and co operation is the best approach

  14. Psephos
    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 6:12 am | Permalink
    It seems a second handover-at-sea of unauthorised boat arrivals is being attempted off West Timor
    ====================================================================

    so did u see tweets this morning seems abc

    saying now tyring to attempt

    phes,

    disappointed in your column as we call it this morning

    spend some time on twitter to see how the news is treated
    there with contempt

    some tweeted the abc said no its not a hand over

    they are attempting to do that

    this morning abc now using other words so much so I thought it must of been another boat

    or is it,
    now ive read 30/50 drownings
    becareful of the propaganda machines

  15. Abbott’s 10 years of supporting Nauru when it wasn’t a signatory of the UN Convention.

    But against Malaysia because it wasn’t a signatory.

    Shows the hypocrisy of the man.

  18. The hypocrisy of conservatives who pretend to accept AGW, but whose actions betray them.

    George Monbiot in the Guardian.

    [But denial is only part of the problem. More significant is the behaviour of powerful people who claim to accept the evidence. This week the former Irish president Mary Robinson added her voice to a call that some of us have been making for years: the only effective means of preventing climate breakdown is to leave fossil fuels in the ground. Press any minister on this matter in private and, in one way or another, they will concede the point. Yet no government will act on it.

    As if to mark the publication of the new report, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills has now plastered a giant poster across its ground-floor windows: “UK oil and gas: Energising Britain. £13.5bn is being invested in recovering UK oil and gas this year, more than any other industrial sector.”

    The message couldn’t have been clearer if it had said “up yours”. It is an example of the way in which all governments collaborate in the disaster they publicly bemoan. They sagely agree with the need to do something to avert the catastrophe the panel foresees, while promoting the industries that cause it.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2013/sep/27/ipcc-climate-change-report-global-warming?CMP=twt_gu

  19. ESJ

    Just trellised I have to point out for the more slow. This resolution prevents war.

    One time we know it for sure. It has prevented US military action

  21. Good to see my say has the survival shelter fully stocked.

    Guytaur the UN is a haven for rich spivs and third world dictators and plum diplomatic postings. I am sure the kids of Syria are heartened to know that rich men in Brioni suits in New York have passed yet another useful motion on their plight.

  22. Can someone in the know pass this onto Andrew Green of the ABC 24 Expert Political Team……

    I too tried ringing the PM’s office re the Asylum Seekers problems. After pressing button 3 then button 1 I found myself redirected to the Minister of Immigrations Office.

    The phone answered with the message ” Your call is important to us but all our operators are currently busy… you will now be placed in a queue.”

    Ohhhhh and I was so happy to note that my call could also be used for training purposes but if I wished that Scoot Morrison not to do so I just had to let the operator know.

    25 minutes later I am still loving that elevator type music.

    I wonder if the operator who finally answers my call say in a strong Indian accent, “Hi my name is Katie, how can I help you?”

    (pssssst Tongue in cheek message BTW)

  26. The Invisible Treasurer finally made an appearance.

    And then makes a comparison of the figures he is working on with the Treasury figures from May 2012 ignoring the figures Treasury has produced since then.

    That he had to reach that far back into the past to make the comparison look as bad as possible shows a desperation

  28. mr sin jun

    did he mention

    hide boats don’t tell the people

    when howard was in
    I think a lot of us forgot the word boat

    for sometime
    but then the detention centres where over flowing so where is morrison going to hide the people

    ive read a few columns what happens when PNG has had enough or over flowing says no more.

    abbott does not follow things through with long thought and out comes

    so he thinks on the spot with now
    would not occur to him that PNG may say enough and what with this
    48 hours turn around are peoples being sent to PNG with out
    vaccinations. could spread disease in PNG,
    if the people have not been vaccinated?? does PNG know this or thought of it

    measles for children is areas like that are not nice to see
    very bad ,? just wondering

    so agreeing with Mr st john is agree to dog whistle

  32. JEFEMMU
    WILL

    pass that experience on to albo please or MArk DRYFUS
    mark dryfus may be the best one as I just finished reading a column of his re this subject.

    that is such valuable information for question time
    or even press. conf

    I think that will happen to centre link calls its bad enough now with the sacking of 1200 workers by December in Canberra alone at centre link call centres

    I see on twitter aust. post may be sold

  33. So what guytaur ? The un also has millennium development goals – how many countries in the world actually contribute 0.7 per cent of GDP to aid outside Scandinavia – bugger all.

  34. Victoria – we’ll see. My point remains – the ALP cannot offer anything concrete beyond the PNG solution (which I think was actually working, and had the potential to work), and the ALP wear responsibility for the mess in this area of the last 5 years. Speaking purely politically, if the ALP (or its supporters) ramp up the rhetoric and the political attack over Abbott’s “failure to stop the boats”, then the political win for Abbott if he succeeds is immense, and the downside for the ALP is large.

    There is as much about psychology here as any mechanics. If the government of Australia looks mean and ugly on accepting boats, and those planning their trips here believe they will drown/be sent back/dropped off in PNG/never get to stay in Australia, then they will stop planning to come here, whether their fears are real or not (and I don’t doubt the LNP intend to make these fears real). The biggest mistake on this issue the ALP made in Government were being seen to have gone soft on boat arrivals – even if the Howard-era Pacific solution was smoke-and-mirrors, and dismantling it made no practical difference in where boat arrivals ended up …

    If the LNP do indeed “stop the boats”, and I think it’s likely they will, the ALP will never suggest changing the boat handling regime ever again. Hopefully the ALP can start arguing for increases in the regular humanitarian program once the heat is taken out of the boat issue.

  35. William

    would you please point out to sean

    that Julia Gillard has many degrees and is now a professor

    do we have to put up with such ignorance here

    when will you act pls

  37. The whole thing about what Labor should be ‘careful about’ is not about boat policy but hypocrisy.

    As some have pointed out, Labor under Rudd at the end, was just a callous in its approach to boat people. The change in policy came about due to the constant attack by the conservatives – and this is fair enough.

    The rank hypocrisy of the Abbott, Morrison and their hacks who come here, is to (a) pretend it was at first a crisis set to bring Oz down (b) now pretend that it is not happening at all (c) Abbott is in the process of fixing it.

    All the talk now is of ‘mature and adult approaches’, and ‘calming things down’ and ‘no megaphone diplomacy’. This is basically solid rubbish.

    Abbott is right to be judged on the boat issue. Not only on whether he can ‘stop the boats’ which will be surprising, but also on the perversion of facts associated with the policy.

    How a political party can bore us witless for 3 going on 6 years, attempt to thwart every policy proposal put forward and then claim some kind of ‘way to go’ success is duplicity at its highest level.

    The fact that conservative hacks here, who blow long on strong on “press freedom” as their media barons did a few months ago, have been deadly silent on the complete stealth in which the government and the military are trying to close down any transparent here shows just how phoney they are.

    The brute fact is that conservatives do hypocrisy better than anybody else.

  39. Jackol

    For example 1000 asylum seekers arrived in one day from Syria to Siciliy. Do you think that sicliy wants or can properly accommodate these people?

  40. Jackol
    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 10:41 am | Permalink
    Victoria – we’ll see. My point remains – the ALP cannot offer anything concrete beyond the PNG solution (which I think was actually working, and had the
    ============================================================
    well no
    there was more the Malaysian idea was very well thought out but the libs would not pass it and then
    dooo gooooder decides to go to court

    ——————-please don’t be an apologist for the lnp and abbott

  41. Abbott’s achievements.

    Insulted Indonesia
    Failed to spend his first week at an Aboriginal Community as promised.
    Sacked 3 public servants
    Sacked Bracks
    Insulted Indonesia
    Shut down the Climate Commission
    Put 24,000 jobs in the renewable energy industry at risk
    Put the thousands of jobs associated with car manufacturing at risk
    Told his Ministers not to talk without permission
    Slapped down Pyne
    Introduced Government censorship on information to the people
    Insulted Indonesia

  42. If the US really wanted to intervene in Syria they would do it regardless of the UN. The US hasn’t intervened because the US public doesn’t support intervention – which is hardly surprising given their experience of the next door neighbour.

  49. Victoria – of course the LNP have played very dirty politics on this issue. Hypocrisy in spades. That doesn’t alter any of the basic issues for the ALP in terms of the politics.

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