Seat of the week: Kennedy

One of the election’s surprises was the tough fight Bob Katter had getting re-elected in his north Queensland family fiefdom of Kennedy.

Teal numbers indicate majority for Liberal National Party. Grey indicates Katter’s Australian Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy covers 568,993 square kilometres of northern Queensland, accounting for over 30% of the state’s surface area. It covers two disconnected coastal areas, one being a 250 kilometre stretch of the east coast from the southern suburbs of Cairns through Innisfail to Toomulla 35 kilometres north Townsville, the other being the thinly populated Gulf of Carpentaria coast from the Northern Territory border to the southern part of Cape York Peninsula. The remainder encompasses rural and outback territory including Mount Isa and most of the Northern Territory border.

Kennedy was one of 16 seats out of 75 which Labor won at the first federal election in 1901, and it remained in Labor hands until Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis was elected unopposed after sitting member Charles McDonald died during the 1925 election campaign. This prompted the change in the Electoral Act which causes the poll for a given electorate to be cancelled and held at a later time if a candidate dies during the campaign, which most recently had effect in Newcastle at the 1998 election. Francis retained the seat at the 1928 election, but it returned to Labor when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. It next changed hands in 1966 when the national anti-Labor swing combined with the loss of retiring veteran William Riordan’s personal vote delivered a narrow victory to the Country Party candidate, Bob Katter Sr.

Katter’s majority increased at each of the next five elections, and he was further boosted when the 1969 redistribution removed Labor-voting Bowen and added Charters Towers. The 1984 redistribution was less kind, returning the seat to the marginal zone by pushing it into the southern reaches of the Cape York Peninsula. It returned to Labor for one term when Katter retired in 1990, the winning member being Rob Hulls, later to return to politics in Victoria as a senior figure in the Bracks-Brumby government. Hulls was defeated at the 1993 election by Bob Katter Jr, who had represented the local area in state parliament since 1974. Katter cemented his position with a double-digit swing in 1996, and his primary vote increased further after he parted company with the Nationals ahead of the 2001 election.

Katter comfortably topped the poll at next three elections, although he faded from 47.1% to 39.5% in 2007 before rebounding to 46.7% in 2010. The 2010 election result left him as one of three rural independents holding the balance of power in a hung parliament, and he appeared to play the most adroit game of the three in unenthusiastically declaring his hand for the Coalition after the determination of the other two to back Labor had rendered it a moot point. He then set about expanding his political empire with the establishment of Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the Queensland state election of March 2012 amid a collapse in support for Labor and elected two members: his son Robbie Katter to the seat of Mount Isa, and former Liberal National Party member Shane Knuth to his existing seat of Dalrymple.

However, the rise of Katter’s Australian Party was firmly checked at the 2013 election, at which its vote across Queensland was just 3.7% and its bid to get country singer James Blundell elected to the Senate was singularly unsuccessful. Most disappointingly of all for the party, Katter struggled to win re-election in Kennedy for the first time, his primary vote down 17.4% to 29.3% against 40.8% for Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin, the former chief executive of the Northern Gulf Resource Management Group. Katter prevailed after preferences by a margin of 2.1%, down 16.2% from 2010. The poor performance was variously attributed to the advertising budget and related electoral success of the Palmer United Party, and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,264 comments on “Seat of the week: Kennedy”

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  1. “@AusElectoralCom: Vic Senate result: 1. Fifield (Lib), 2. Marshall (ALP), 3. Ryan (Lib), 4. Collins (ALP), 5. Rice (Greens) & Muir (Motoring). #ausvotes”

  2. AEC ‏@AusElectoralCom 45s

    Vic Senate result: 1. Fifield (Lib), 2. Marshall (ALP), 3. Ryan (Lib), 4. Collins (ALP), 5. Rice (Greens) & Muir (Motoring). #ausvotes

  3. heard from an acquaintance while I was out that mr abbott breakfast was what you would expect from a school
    reunion breakfast, and he even had to read the notes

    what shambles the country is


    I have read a few posts also, would like to say that in my opinion JG did not divide the country
    the divisions came from those that had their own agenda

    in 2010 the country was not divided it was 50/50
    the divisions did not start till after that time

    so pray tell me how did Julia divide the country.

    now we have person in charge who stood in front of
    banners saying

    ‘ditch the witch’ my only recollection of abbott will be that banner the closing down of and lose the nbn
    the loss of the boat this week off the ind.
    lowering the wages of the good people that he could not a candle to at nursing homes and others he decided should go and that’s so far,,

    if you where travelling over seas you not want to admit from whence you came.

    there will no glory or any kind thinking about him

    Julia gave us nids and gonsky and 503 bllls past the house

    so tell me how did she divide the country

  4. So apparently Franklin’s contract with the Swans is worth…$7 million for 5 seasons.

    Holy Carumba!

    Talk about discrimination of pay in sport. The women get much, much more money than the men in our two great footy codes.

    Well done Super League. It was the opposite before Ribot got Rupe to put his grubby hands on the ARL.

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