Seat of the week: Kennedy

One of the election’s surprises was the tough fight Bob Katter had getting re-elected in his north Queensland family fiefdom of Kennedy.

Teal numbers indicate majority for Liberal National Party. Grey indicates Katter’s Australian Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy covers 568,993 square kilometres of northern Queensland, accounting for over 30% of the state’s surface area. It covers two disconnected coastal areas, one being a 250 kilometre stretch of the east coast from the southern suburbs of Cairns through Innisfail to Toomulla 35 kilometres north Townsville, the other being the thinly populated Gulf of Carpentaria coast from the Northern Territory border to the southern part of Cape York Peninsula. The remainder encompasses rural and outback territory including Mount Isa and most of the Northern Territory border.

Kennedy was one of 16 seats out of 75 which Labor won at the first federal election in 1901, and it remained in Labor hands until Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis was elected unopposed after sitting member Charles McDonald died during the 1925 election campaign. This prompted the change in the Electoral Act which causes the poll for a given electorate to be cancelled and held at a later time if a candidate dies during the campaign, which most recently had effect in Newcastle at the 1998 election. Francis retained the seat at the 1928 election, but it returned to Labor when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. It next changed hands in 1966 when the national anti-Labor swing combined with the loss of retiring veteran William Riordan’s personal vote delivered a narrow victory to the Country Party candidate, Bob Katter Sr.

Katter’s majority increased at each of the next five elections, and he was further boosted when the 1969 redistribution removed Labor-voting Bowen and added Charters Towers. The 1984 redistribution was less kind, returning the seat to the marginal zone by pushing it into the southern reaches of the Cape York Peninsula. It returned to Labor for one term when Katter retired in 1990, the winning member being Rob Hulls, later to return to politics in Victoria as a senior figure in the Bracks-Brumby government. Hulls was defeated at the 1993 election by Bob Katter Jr, who had represented the local area in state parliament since 1974. Katter cemented his position with a double-digit swing in 1996, and his primary vote increased further after he parted company with the Nationals ahead of the 2001 election.

Katter comfortably topped the poll at next three elections, although he faded from 47.1% to 39.5% in 2007 before rebounding to 46.7% in 2010. The 2010 election result left him as one of three rural independents holding the balance of power in a hung parliament, and he appeared to play the most adroit game of the three in unenthusiastically declaring his hand for the Coalition after the determination of the other two to back Labor had rendered it a moot point. He then set about expanding his political empire with the establishment of Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the Queensland state election of March 2012 amid a collapse in support for Labor and elected two members: his son Robbie Katter to the seat of Mount Isa, and former Liberal National Party member Shane Knuth to his existing seat of Dalrymple.

However, the rise of Katter’s Australian Party was firmly checked at the 2013 election, at which its vote across Queensland was just 3.7% and its bid to get country singer James Blundell elected to the Senate was singularly unsuccessful. Most disappointingly of all for the party, Katter struggled to win re-election in Kennedy for the first time, his primary vote down 17.4% to 29.3% against 40.8% for Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin, the former chief executive of the Northern Gulf Resource Management Group. Katter prevailed after preferences by a margin of 2.1%, down 16.2% from 2010. The poor performance was variously attributed to the advertising budget and related electoral success of the Palmer United Party, and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,264 comments on “Seat of the week: Kennedy”

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  1. guytaur, they could at least make an effort in the remaining minutes, as unlikely as an agreement might be.

    Now one side has to cave in and lose face or both will have to give up something.

  2. ESJ:

    Taking government out of the daily news

    I guess you ran out of promises by that point. A pointless aspiration, and one he has no control over. Yes, we understand he meant none of the shenanigans of the ALP over the last 4 years, but still, an arbitrary meaningless promise that he can do nothing about, apart from maybe keeping his metaphorical boot on Malcolm Turnbull’s throat.

    I obviously don’t consider repealing stuff as a major “promise”, so repealing 2 things is pretty much the same as repealing 1, but ok.

    Budget – he made no specific promises with regards the budget. He didn’t promise a return to surplus by any given time, he just made a mealy mouthed promise to get the budget under control or something like that. Which, given the budget wasn’t out of control over the last 6 years, is another untestable nothing promise. I guess there is a failure condition – if he runs massive deficits for his entire 3 years he’ll get a bit of schtick.

    Roads. Yes. Well. I didn’t even pay attention to what roads he promised he would fund, but that’s just me I guess.

    Abbott and the LNP coasted in promising almost nothing that they could be held to, which is great if you can get away with it as they did.

  3. Psephological

    You called it spot on…….. derision is the word all right, almost to the point of slapstick comedy.

    Whilst I was originally concerned that the Pug Monkey would trash the joint, I think now that he probly hasn’t got the competence to even do that.

    Maybe the biggest “crime” he’ll commit as the parody of a leader he is, will be to neglect and fail to progress policies, and his confusion, anxiety, derangement and (unadmitted) self knowledge will combine to keep him in a state of paralysis.

    As to ESJ, he seems o bet hallucinating today about what is or is not “rage”.

    However for the record he’s still running away from his juvenile and crass criticism of Tony Burke’s physicality last night. He’s seeing unicorns everywhere and wants to discuss them rather than address his disgraceful comments last night.

    And now, oh me oh my, I better steel myself for the inevitable name calling.

  4. [3156
    Psephos

    I’m frankly astonished. Despite everyone knowing for at least a year that the Coalition was going to win the election, it’s as if they’ve made no preparations at all for government.]

    Born-to-rule, natural-party-of-government mentality gone mad.

  5. Just a gentle reminder to some political ignoramuses who insist on proving how pig ignorant they are…

    ALP got MORE 2PP votes than the Coalition…

    Julia negotiated a majority in the HoRs with two CONSERVATIVE independents who trusted her rather than the CONSERVATIVE leader Mr Abbott…

    The minority Govt went it’s FULL term without ever having to defend its majority on the floor of the house …despite Abbott’s repeated promises to bring on a motion of no confidence…

    ALP won the democratic vote …and Julia negotiated a position where she had the confidence of the Parliament to form Govt …legitimately & effectively.

    It’s how our democracy works …don’t like it? …tough!!

  6. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, October 1, 2013 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    Has Abbott turned his back on turning back the boats?

    No he’s already dropped back 2 boatloads back to Indonesia already, you lefties need to keep up…
    ——————————————–

    Under the terms of the MOU signed with the Labor Govt last year

  7. Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, October 1, 2013 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    Haha. Abbott blames the electors of Indi for there being only one woman in his Cabinet.

    Gold.
    ——————————-

    Like his comment about being in Kings Cross at 2.00am and getting assaulted. You shouldn’t be there, your fault you got bashed

  8. davidwh –

    Only the US can manage to go through this every six months.

    Well, technically we have to do much the same thing, as Hockey has just done in flagging passing legislation to raise the debt ceiling.

    It’s just that congress has too much power to block things, and not enough mechanisms to allow the executive to push things through if they need to do so.

    I know it’s a one-eyed parochial attitude, but I think Australia’s Federal parliamentary structure is pretty damn well balanced – the Senate has a lot of power here, but it is quite difficult to actually shut down a government from the Senate, the Reps obviously determines the executive so it can’t really be in too much conflict with the executive, and if all else fails the government can go to an election to resolve matters where all of those fixed terms for congress members mean a deadlock is just something they have to live with until the next election rolls around.

    (Fixed terms are a mistake in my opinion for this reason).

    I think that largely comes down to different attitudes at the time of creating the different systems. Congress was probably designed specifically to slow things down and stop the government from having a free hand (“government is the problem” is so built in to the American psyche from revolutionary days). Our parliament wasn’t designed to stop or hinder the government taking action.

    Or maybe it’s just dumb luck.

  9. Sean Tis’me re Boats
    ___________
    Th two boats you talk off constantly were in fact never on the high seas but in Indonesian waters

    As for Abbott’s abortive talks in Jakarta the proof will come
    YThe Indons who clearly loate him,won’t do anything …they simply have agreed to talks and the boats will still come tomorrow or next week…as they have for years
    Get used to it

  10. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa had led a series of complaints from officials and lawmakers that Abbott’s tow-back policy, part of his “stop the boats” campaign, could infringe Indonesian sovereignty.

  11. Fairfax papers quote senior commissioner Parsaoran Damanik, of Banten Police in West Java, as saying the tow-back policy would ”disadvantage” Indonesia, and the deputy head of Indonesia’s Human Trafficking, Refugees and Asylum Seekers desk, Johnny Hutauruk, saying that Indonesia wants a tripartite agreement with Malaysia and Australia.

  12. There are a number of ways to interpret Opposition leader Tony Abbott’s failure to raise his asylum seeker ‘tow back’ proposal in his meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but none of them are positive. In short, the ‘town back’ proposal was – and in so far as it continues to be defended by Opposition speakers – remains a policy disaster.

    In a political contest increasingly characterised by who has the metaphorically hairiest chest, ‘Tow Back Tony’ has been a tough-guy par excellence. Not only had Mr Abbott taken the hardest line on asylum seekers, he went that one step further by not just saying that a government under his leadership would implement asylum seeker deterrent policies but it would physically take asylum seeker boats back to the territorial waters they came from.

  13. Psephos said:
    I’m frankly astonished. Despite everyone knowing for at least a year that the Coalition was going to win the election, it’s as if they’ve made no preparations at all for government.

    Given everything discussed ad infinitum on PB and elsewhere over the last 3 or 4 years, it surprises me to discover that some PB regulars are astonished at the ineptness of Abbott’s ministry.

    Surely this is a direct result of Abbott’s faustian “stability” pact to retain the Coalition leadership by promising everyone in opposition would retain their positions in government, apparently irrespective of aptitude.

    I’m surprised we havent seen more zombie-based Walking Dead derision.

    Or, it’s as if the miserable extras in Ricky Gervais’ Extras series have suddenly found themselves with starring roles despite not knowing how to act.

    The current state of affairs isnt astonishing or surprising – it’s exactly as many expected.

  14. Boerwar..a Great post on the Ministers
    _______________

    Congratulations on your splendid piece on just how badly the Ministers are doing in their first weeks(though you were a bit generous with the marks you gave to Mossison…3/10 seemed a bit high)
    Great stuff thanks …

    Odd too that there seems no great enthusiasm even among their media supports for the new regime…perhaps we were right all along that the voters don’t like Abbott much…some new PMs rouse great emotions in their first days”’Rudd did over Kyoto in 2007/Whitlam on a host of fronts in glorious Dec 1972…even Fraser in 1975 amongst his friends…but Abbott goes down like cold mashed potato…why is this I wonder ?

  15. Buddy was offered 1.2 million per annum for six years from GWS. Sydney have offered 1.4 million per annum for five years. He has accepted same. They will lodge same on friday, and Hawthorn have opportunity to match the offer then.

  16. Oh, and what happened to Bishop’s rhetoric about not needing Indonesia’s permission, just their understanding?

    I think the only understanding going on is that most of the LNP’s announced platform in this area is not going anywhere.

  17. Deblonay

    You have stated the position with great precision.

    The patience, self effacement and quiet diplomacy of Asians generally should not be construed as capitulation or acquiescence or agreement.

    They are intelligent, planful and their top personnel are right on top of the game.

    The Pug Monkey has snookered hisself over the boats and the border security crap. He thinks he’s got sway with SBY but he’s deluding hisself.

    And good on him. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving creature.

  18. Bemused

    Shorten’s interesting. At first you think he’s completely unacceptable because of who’s he’s associated with. Then you hear him talk and you realise he has an understanding of the ALP’s policy framework better than pretty much anyone in the party.

    He’s not a bad choice, but he has to end a few associations I think. He’s already shown that he’s capable of doing it but more needs to be done.

  19. He thinks he’s got sway with SBY but he’s deluding hisself.

    If you see that presser from today I think it’s pretty clear Abbott knows he has no sway and that he hit a brick wall (a very polite brick wall) in Indonesian responsiveness to his boat plans.

  20. Bemused

    I find myself in agreement with you. Albo is a fine MP and politician.

    He’s the one who replied to the far majority of the Pug Monkey’s SSOs over the past 3 years; he can think on his feet and is an excellent debater without needing notes.

  21. spur212@3230

    Bemused

    Shorten’s interesting. At first you think he’s completely unacceptable because of who’s he’s associated with. Then you hear him talk and you realise he has an understanding of the ALP’s policy framework better than pretty much anyone in the party.

    He’s not a bad choice, but he has to end a few associations I think. He’s already shown that he’s capable of doing it but more needs to be done.

    I will have difficulty ever forgetting and forgiving his role in June 2010. That event has caused enormous damage to the ALP, although paradoxically, it may have ended up expediting necessary reform.

    I have never felt so excited about the prospect of genuine real reform before.

    A lot of the reform I want to see includes embracing modern technology to streamline administration and get rid of 19th Century processes. The debate touched on this when Shorten referred to the difficulty of joining. It should be a simple online process.

  22. Bemused (wrong button again)

    But BS is also looking strong and has a quiet, steely determination ……. Not as strong a debater as Albo, but an excellent explainer.

    His good performance on Qanda has made the choice difficult for me.

  23. psyclaw@3232

    Bemused

    I find myself in agreement with you. Albo is a fine MP and politician.

    He’s the one who replied to the far majority of the Pug Monkey’s SSOs over the past 3 years; he can think on his feet and is an excellent debater without needing notes.

    Maybe I am not as bad as you imagine. 😉

    One key issue in his favour is that he has committed to the implementation of all the Faulkner / Bracks / Carr reforms. Shorten has only committed to some.

  24. Jackol 3217 re USA and their Senate
    __________
    The Oz Constitution has the DD provisions which technically can clear the Senate obstruction or remove the Govt or cause a Joint sitting laterl”’the US has no sucn mechanism…anyway the problem is the HoR with it’s Repub majority..gained by much gerrymandering in Repub states which make the boundaries of seats to suit themselves
    all very corrupt

    Recently in the USA I read much speculation on this crisis then seen as part of the Madness in the Tea Party and their desire to thwart Obama and stop Obamacare

    Rgading the US press in recent times some of the views expressed in the tabloid press/Dox are notably those owned by an Australian anmed Murdoch
    The Tea Party in a way if a child of Fox News and Murdoch(here he of course owns the Liberal Party)

    The Repugnants are in dire straits as the Tea Party make them unelectable in a large part of the USA

  25. psyclaw@3236

    Bemused (wrong button again)

    But BS is also looking strong and has a quiet, steely determination ……. Not as strong a debater as Albo, but an excellent explainer.

    His good performance on Qanda has made the choice difficult for me.

    You, being the psychologist and all, should be better able to judge than me, but Shorten has always had a very strong driving ambition to be PM. I think Albo lacks this all consuming ambition and is more a servant of the movement.

  26. anyway the problem is the HoR with it’s Repub majority

    Yes, it is the problem, and one we avoid by aligning our HoR with our executive.

    The American system was designed to be more “pure” by having the executive and the legislature as completely separate – separate elections yada yada yada.

    I think, in practice, that purity is the problem. It doesn’t make sense to have the executive be completely independent of the legislature in terms of how the public selects the executive and the legislature, but then having the executive dependent on the legislature to provide supply.

    The possibilities (and the realities) for deadlock are obvious.

    Now, of course our executive is also dependent on our legislature to provide supply, but in our case the Reps is intimately aligned with the executive, and the Senate can’t block supply (well, they can, but doing so brings down the government, so it’s kind of hard to posture over it, and ultimately the worst that can happen is that there is an election and the situation most likely is resolved).

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