Seat of the week: Kennedy

One of the election’s surprises was the tough fight Bob Katter had getting re-elected in his north Queensland family fiefdom of Kennedy.

Teal numbers indicate majority for Liberal National Party. Grey indicates Katter’s Australian Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy covers 568,993 square kilometres of northern Queensland, accounting for over 30% of the state’s surface area. It covers two disconnected coastal areas, one being a 250 kilometre stretch of the east coast from the southern suburbs of Cairns through Innisfail to Toomulla 35 kilometres north Townsville, the other being the thinly populated Gulf of Carpentaria coast from the Northern Territory border to the southern part of Cape York Peninsula. The remainder encompasses rural and outback territory including Mount Isa and most of the Northern Territory border.

Kennedy was one of 16 seats out of 75 which Labor won at the first federal election in 1901, and it remained in Labor hands until Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis was elected unopposed after sitting member Charles McDonald died during the 1925 election campaign. This prompted the change in the Electoral Act which causes the poll for a given electorate to be cancelled and held at a later time if a candidate dies during the campaign, which most recently had effect in Newcastle at the 1998 election. Francis retained the seat at the 1928 election, but it returned to Labor when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. It next changed hands in 1966 when the national anti-Labor swing combined with the loss of retiring veteran William Riordan’s personal vote delivered a narrow victory to the Country Party candidate, Bob Katter Sr.

Katter’s majority increased at each of the next five elections, and he was further boosted when the 1969 redistribution removed Labor-voting Bowen and added Charters Towers. The 1984 redistribution was less kind, returning the seat to the marginal zone by pushing it into the southern reaches of the Cape York Peninsula. It returned to Labor for one term when Katter retired in 1990, the winning member being Rob Hulls, later to return to politics in Victoria as a senior figure in the Bracks-Brumby government. Hulls was defeated at the 1993 election by Bob Katter Jr, who had represented the local area in state parliament since 1974. Katter cemented his position with a double-digit swing in 1996, and his primary vote increased further after he parted company with the Nationals ahead of the 2001 election.

Katter comfortably topped the poll at next three elections, although he faded from 47.1% to 39.5% in 2007 before rebounding to 46.7% in 2010. The 2010 election result left him as one of three rural independents holding the balance of power in a hung parliament, and he appeared to play the most adroit game of the three in unenthusiastically declaring his hand for the Coalition after the determination of the other two to back Labor had rendered it a moot point. He then set about expanding his political empire with the establishment of Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the Queensland state election of March 2012 amid a collapse in support for Labor and elected two members: his son Robbie Katter to the seat of Mount Isa, and former Liberal National Party member Shane Knuth to his existing seat of Dalrymple.

However, the rise of Katter’s Australian Party was firmly checked at the 2013 election, at which its vote across Queensland was just 3.7% and its bid to get country singer James Blundell elected to the Senate was singularly unsuccessful. Most disappointingly of all for the party, Katter struggled to win re-election in Kennedy for the first time, his primary vote down 17.4% to 29.3% against 40.8% for Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin, the former chief executive of the Northern Gulf Resource Management Group. Katter prevailed after preferences by a margin of 2.1%, down 16.2% from 2010. The poor performance was variously attributed to the advertising budget and related electoral success of the Palmer United Party, and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,264 comments on “Seat of the week: Kennedy”

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  2. Would the fact Katter has developed a reputation for being frequently absent from Parliament been partly responsible for the collapse in his support?

  4. It seems a second handover-at-sea of unauthorised boat arrivals is being attempted off West Timor. If this succeeds it will be an excellent outcome, and will be to Abbott’s political credit. If Indonesia really is willing to take back boat arrivals in this way on a regular basis, this is a much better solution than Australia taking custody of them, and will eventually have some effect in deterring them coming to Indonesia in the first place. Labor ex-ministers will be quite rightly asking why Indonesia did not agree to this process during the six years of Labor government, despite repeated promises to be helpful.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Surely the free marketeers who send their kids to these schools would agree with this proposition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/private-schools-a-burden-on-ratepayers-report-says-20130927-2ujr6.html
    Keep up the good work now you’re a self proclaimed adult, Tone.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-australia-move-to-take-heat-out-of-standoff-20130927-2ujtf.html
    Prissy should keep his hands off himsef!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-australia-move-to-take-heat-out-of-standoff-20130927-2ujtf.html
    Mark Kenny gives Hockey an “F”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/more-performances-like-this-and-joe-hockey-will-send-confidence-backwards-20130927-2ujp6.html
    A ripper of a read from Mike Carlton.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/shock-awe-magician-unable-to-find-abbott-20130927-2ujgu.html
    Doesn’t it make you sick seeing Mesma smugly chairing the Security Council Meeting after the years of ridicule by her and her party!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-takes-un-security-council-reins-20130927-2uhl7.html
    This is a disgusting proposal.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/realestate/news/real-estate-institute-chief-greg-troughton-lashes-new-property-sale-reform-plans/story-fni0ci8n-1226728926552
    Could you imagine the whingweing if the final was being played in WA and this happenned to Collingwood?
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/freo-pays-extra-50000-to-play-20130927-2ujtl.html
    Alan Moir has Popeye in a bit of trouble with the boats policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    A good effort again from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  6. And from the Land of the Free –

    FoxNews at its best.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/27/video-fox-hosts-ok-u-s-defaulting-debt/
    Some cartoons on the Repugs and thheir hpostage taking.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/27/cartoons-day-gop-holding-hostages/
    Tea Party on the wane?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/26/poll-itics-tea-party-support-dwindles-near-record-low/
    The severe infrasdtructure problems in the US continue.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/wisconsin-bridge-closed-indefinitely-after-9

  7. [Alan Moir has Popeye in a bit of trouble with the boats policy.]

    It might be an idea to refrain from mocking Abbott on this issue until we see how this current drama plays out. As I said above, if he can indeed get Indonesia to take back boat arrivals on a regular basis, that will be a big coup for him.

  10. Breaking with tradition, I’m going to comment on the article by William at the top of this page …

    I note …

    [and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.]

    Had they preferenced The Greens in the Senate, it’s possible that a Green might have won a seat ahead of “the Brick with Eyes” … which self-evidently, would have been better for them than having a puppy.

    Once again, an ALP attempt to game the system comes a cropper.

  11. Psephos

    [As I said above, if he can indeed get Indonesia to take back boat arrivals on a regular basis, that will be a big coup for him.]

    But not for asylum seekers or even humanity more generally, obviously.

  12. [ Psephos
    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Alan Moir has Popeye in a bit of trouble with the boats policy.

    It might be an idea to refrain from mocking Abbott on this issue until we see how this current drama plays out. As I said above, if he can indeed get Indonesia to take back boat arrivals on a regular basis, that will be a big coup for him.
    ]

    Very very true, but assuming it has been done before it has been done is pretty silly.

  13. I just heard a report about the efforts of one Kenyan businessman who, receiving a text from a friend inside the Westgate shopping centre in the early stages of the Al-Shabaab attack, organised his own personal rescue mission.

    Apparently, starting at the third floor, where he his party came across gruesome scenes of dead and dying children and others who had apparently been at some cooking competition, he and others managed to ferry out dozens of people, and then working their way down floor by floor continued to facilitate the escape, telling terrified people that they were police.

    When they reached the ground floor they had to do this under fire from the gunmen, but continued anyway.

    Humans do a great many truly dreadful things, both collectively and individually, but here we see humanity at its very best, and on this fine day when someone playing with a piece of leather will be called a hero, I believe it’s worth noting what personal heroism really looks like.

  17. Abbott and his 3 word slogans. These are effectively tests for him which are really pass/fail. He’s used the slogans so repeatedly that they are exactly the standard he will be held too. For example if he can’t stop the boats he will pay the price and if he can he will reap the benefit. One would think he’s locked himself so strongly into these positions that he must be extremely confident of delivering – it would seem from recent events in Indonesia he has good reason for this confidence.

  18. Loving the Google translate of Indonesian (and other language) newspapers. It’s close, but not perfect.

    This commentary in the Sinar Harapan (Ray of Hope), one of the leading broadsheets, on Lord Downers intervention I think gets the gist of the problem

    [Abbott agreed, necessary discussion of a comprehensive solution that illegal immigrants were increasingly a lot. “It’s never occurred to me to take any action that does not show our respect for the sovereignty of Indonesia,” Abbott said in an interview with Fairfax Radio, Friday morning (27 / 9). “Obviously, we will be closer and more familiar with Indonesia,” he said again. Abbott himself scheduled to travel to the country immediately and held his first visit, to meet with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Visits PM Julia Gillard’s replacement, also part of diplomacy to cool tensions, due to the statement of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Downer, in an interview with ABC , yesterday said that many of the red-white-flag ships and driven people of Indonesia, bringing immigrants to Australia. “Mr. statement I try to answer. Natalegawa (Marty- ed ), which we are not going to enter Indonesian territory. But , just a lot of Indonesian-flagged vessel entered our waters and carrying illegal immigrants. was we can not accept, “said Downer. Downer rather curt statement dodges against Marty, in New York when he met with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. Marty Natalegawa said that Indonesia firm can not accept violations of sovereignty by the expulsion of illegal immigrants by the Australian Navy forces that are often entered into Indonesian territory. “This statement reroris. Harunya Indonesia understand it. Why now talking about the sovereignty of the country,” said Downer again. Though colored tension, PM Abbott even convinced that this issue is not sustained. “If Australia ever do something stupid, yes it’s been done the previous government. Clearly the government is now not the case. We will be more familiar with close neighbor, Indonesia,” he said. ]

    http://www.shnews.co/detile-25538-pm-abbott–tak-terpikir-ganggu-kedaulatan-indonesia.html

  19. Edward StJohn@17

    Abbott and his 3 word slogans. These are effectively tests for him which are really pass/fail. He’s used the slogans so repeatedly that they are exactly the standard he will be held too. For example if he can’t stop the boats he will pay the price and if he can he will reap the benefit. One would think he’s locked himself so strongly into these positions that he must be extremely confident of delivering – it would seem from recent events in Indonesia he has good reason for this confidence.

    Indeed. It is curious that Indonesia seems to be allowing Australian ships to land asylum seekers back in Indonesia. I thought that was not the case previously, that they simply refused to allow the people to land.

    These latest were picked up close to shore, does that have anything to do with it?

  20. [But not for asylum seekers or even humanity more generally, obviously.]

    So who is better off, Fran? The ones we’ve just returned to Indonesia, or the 50 who’ve just drowned? How is humanity served by encouraging people to lose their own and their children’s lives at sea? This is a murderous and criminal traffic, and those who defend it are idiots.

    [Very very true, but assuming it has been done before it has been done is pretty silly.]

    I’ve assumed nothing. I’ve carefully used the word “if” throughout.

    [For example if he can’t stop the boats he will pay the price and if he can he will reap the benefit.]

    Very true.

    [it would seem from recent events in Indonesia he has good reason for this confidence.]

    That’s a bit premature. It just be dumb luck with this one boat. If this becomes the standard procedure, then you can crow.

  21. the awful tragedy of the consequences of boats sinking is conveyed in this Google translated piece from Pikiran Rakyat.

    With Abbott and crew in Indonesia on Monday, who will front the weekly Operation SB press conference to explain?

    [CIANJUR (AFP). – Victims of immigrants who died aboard a ship sank in waters Tegalbuled, Sukabumi, on Friday (27.09.13) and deposited in waters Sirnalaur, Agrabinta to 19 people. At least 5 people have been affected and around 70 people are still in the discovery stage.

    “Up to now we are still coordinating with the police Tegalbuled for conducting searches on the edges of beaches along Sirnalaut,” said Agrabinta police chief, Assistant Commissioner Warsono.

    Warsono said all the dead were taken to the health center Agrabinta. While combing sea evacuation will be carried out tomorrow.

    “We also hope the SAR team from the harbor queen soon joined us and helped sweep to locate the victim died, according to local immigrant survivors still there are 70 people who are in the ship, and may still be in open waters,” he said.

    Sinking barge carrying them immigrants who came from Yemen, Lebanan, and Pakistan is due to high sea waves while allegedly overloaded vessel. (A-186/A-108) ***

    WEST JAVA]

    http://www.pikiran-rakyat.com/node/252632

  22. Morning all. An interesting exchange:

    [tony kevin ‏@tonykevin 10h
    @George_Roberts How can Indon know if are genuine rescues or forced pickups/returns by OSB from outside Indon waters?

    George Roberts ‏@George_Roberts 8h
    @tonykevin you can cross reference against whether there was a distress call. Although the first boat it seems was false distress.]

    Does false distress mean deliberate sabotage by the crew in order to get the Aus Navy to rescue them and take them to CI, or does it mean a misinterpretation of a signal by the crew to mean distress? Meanwhile none of these questions and more will be answered by the govt until Monday.

    I’m standing by my presumption that Australia seeking to return boats to Indonesia is a new operational approach by the Navy.

  24. The people who have decided that risking death at sea is better than risking 17 years in a camp for themselves and children are the ones who you should be asking your question, Psephos.

  27. [Strong population growth means Western Australia is on track to get an additional federal seat before the next election in 2016.

    WA has had 15 federal seats for more than a decade but that’s likely to go up by one as a result of a redistribution starting towards the end of next year.

    The last electorate to be created in WA was Hasluck in 2001.

    Based on ABS population figures, Western Australia’s extra seat would come at the expense of New South Wales, which stands to lose a seat.

    Any new seat for the WA, is likely to trigger big boundary changes in metropolitan Perth before voters go to the polls.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-27/wa-could-pick-up-extra-federal-seat/4986002?section=wa

  30. [The people who have decided that risking death at sea is better than risking 17 years in a camp for themselves and children are the ones who you should be asking your question, Psephos.]

    Indeed. If there are any survivors of this vessel who are the parents or guardians of children who have drowned, I would charge them with homicide, along with anyone who can be shown to have organised, aided or abetted this criminally irresponsible exercise.

    In any case, we gather that the people on this boat were Lebanese. So they have not spent any years in a refugee camp. They are just people who thought this was a good way to migrate to Australia.

  31. [Psephos
    Posted Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    But not for asylum seekers or even humanity more generally, obviously.

    So who is better off, Fran? The ones we’ve just returned to Indonesia, or the 50 who’ve just drowned?
    ]

    The one’s returned; they get to take the risk a second time.

  33. [Death is not worse than a life that promises nothing but misery.]

    I’m sure the drowned children on the boat will appreciate your lofty philosophical view of their fate, Fran.

  34. What was the motivation for leaving Lebanon? This article from Lebabnon’s the Daily Star revealing

    [Among the victims were nine members from the family of a local man who the mukhtar identified as Hussein Ahmad Khodr, and the five-member family of Asaad Ali Asaad.

    President Michel Sleiman, who had just returned from New York after attending the United Nations General Assembly, instructed officials to follow up on the incident, a statement from his office said.

    Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the officials at the embassy in Jakarta to coordinate with Indonesian authorities and uncover the circumstances surrounding it as well as determining the fate of the Lebanese travelers.

    Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri made a series of contacts to follow up on this issue, and asked his Future Movement to help the survivors and repatriate the bodies of the victims.

    The mukhtar added that many from the village sell all of their belongings and property to make the trip to Indonesia and travel by sea to Australia in search of a better life.”

    “The situation is very difficult to deal with, because bringing the bodies to the village will be very costly,” he added.

    Hussein also said that he tried to convince many of the residents to look for an alternative given the risks of traveling by boat to Australia.

    “They come to me to prepare their passport documents so they can travel to Indonesia … I try to advise them [against it] but they want a better life for their families,” he said.]

    Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Sep-28/232896-boat-tragedy-in-indonesia-claims-17-lebanese.ashx#ixzz2g8PTfj2q
    (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

  35. Psephos, for many people it’s not a lofy philosophical question, it’s a real choice they face and it appears that your sarcasm is misplaced since many facing that choice would appear to agree with Fran and not you.

  36. [“They come to me to prepare their passport documents so they can travel to Indonesia … I try to advise them [against it] but they want a better life for their families,” he said.]

    So there we go. Not refugees, not people who’ve spent 17 years in a camp. Economic migrants, deliberately trying to circumvent Australian migration law. They have paid the price of their folly.

  37. [Psephos, for many people it’s not a lofy philosophical question, it’s a real choice they face and it appears that your sarcasm is misplaced since many facing that choice would appear to agree with Fran and not you.]

    Well, they made the wrong choice, and now they and their children have paid the price. I hope you’re happy.

  38. Greg Hunt says on the ABC that the government accepts the findings of the IPCC report in full. But can’t answer any questions as to what consequences flow from that in terms of policy. What a disgrace he is.

  40. I don’t see that “turning the boats back” means the same as “rescuing drowning people at sea”. But the media seems to equate these things so that Tone has a victory.

  41. The real problem is and always has been the places they’re escaping from. Faced with no good choices, what is there to be happy about whatever choice they make?

    In any case, I’ve been talking generally. If specific people don’t match what I describe and are as you described at comment 36, then I agree with you.

  42. I think the “boats” will be like “high interest rates” for the next 10 years if abbot pulls it off. Still can’t believe there are so many slow learners on here who don’t get that.

  43. Citizens of countries like Greece and Spain are facing high unemployment levels and economic uncertainty.

    Millions of people from countries like these would come to Australia at the drop of a hat for the good of their children.

    If a boatload of Spanish people arrived on our shores tomorrow should Australia accept them as refugees?

  44. It also goes to show how ruthless the people smugglers are

    Recruiting poor villagers in Lebanon, probably saying “children travel free”, and overloading boats.

    On arrival, the Australian authorities have to deal with large family groups. This increases the likelihood they will get some temporary protection, or be placed in community detention.

  46. Psephos

    [I’m sure the drowned children on the boat will appreciate your lofty philosophical view of their fate, Fran.]

    I’m not a believer in afterlife, so I doubt you can be certain.

    Living third parties would often share my view. That’s why people often try to escape misery even if risks attend the project.

    [So there we go. Not refugees, not people who’ve spent 17 years in a camp. Economic migrants, deliberately trying to circumvent Australian migration law. They have paid the price of their folly.]

    Yesterday you were arguing that Abbott should not be misrepresented — and I agreed. Now you are misprepresenting to serve your own agenda when the commentary is is unambiguous (and comnes from a source with an interest in misrepresenting in his own favour.

    You need to be consistent rather than grasping at straws when you can press them into service for your ends.

  48. Zoomster

    [If a boatload of Spanish people arrived on our shores tomorrow should Australia accept them as refugees?]

    But are they refugees? That’s the question. We should, as Ms Pillay told Ms Alberici yesterday, assess each on merit. In the interim, we should treat them with humanity and dignity.

    In any event you are clearly mixing up two claims — the alleged desire to mitigate “drownings” — and the desire not “to allow the gaming of our immigration system”. Trying to serve contrary imperatives is implausible.

  49. Sound familiar?

    [Almost 1,000 illegal immigrants landed in Italy yesterday after threatening to throw babies into the sea if their rusting ship was turned back.

    The 240ft Monica had been spotted in international waters during the night.

    When Italian coastguard boats drew alongside, the crews were shocked to see men and women on board begin dangling the infants over the side.

    The refugees – mostly Kurds and many said to be heading for Britain – calmed down only when they were assured they would not be turned away from Italy.]
    …
    [The Monica was the largest single arrival for nearly five years. A coastguard-spokesman told of the drama when the ship, illegally flying the flag of Tonga, was intercepted.
    He said: ‘When officers tried to draw alongside they were shocked to see those on board threaten to throw babies overboard.

    ‘They were hanging them over the side and told the coastguards not to come any closer or they would let go. Our men had never seen anything like it.]

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-105630/Refugees-allowed-Italy-threat-drown-babies.html#ixzz2g8VFijVc

  50. banging gavels aint nuthin. the coal mob have been doin’ that for years – drawing attention like naughty schoolboys (and one girl). they have not done their homework. bishop is a trumped up half baked legal practitioner. may they stumble without causing too many deaths to refugees or servicemen and women

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