The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to a striking weakness in its honeymoon effect, the fact that it’s only partly a post-election poll, or the observed tendency towards constancy in results from the pollster in question. That pollster is Essential Research, and its poll is its routine fortnightly average of federal voting intention conducted online from samples of about 1000 respondents each week. The latest result was thus half-conducted over the period of the election itself, such that one might dispute its provenance as a post-election poll (which you can pile on top of general doubts about the value of any polling conducted immediately after a change of government). For what it’s worth, the poll has the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote (45.7% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.5%) and the Greens on 9% (8.4%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from the 2010 election.
Further questions, which unlike voting intention were derived from this week’s sample only, have 38% rating the election of micro-parties to the Senate as “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for better government against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. A finding on the state of the economy is an instructive insight into the influence of partisan considerations on such polling. Overall, 40% describe the state of the economy as good and 25% as poor, compared with 36% and 30% when the question was last asked in mid-July. Tellingly, the good rating among Coalition voters is up 14 points to 32% while poor is down ten points to 35%, while Labor voters are down nine points on good to 50% and up four points on poor to 18%.
As to proper election results, this site continues to follow close counts in dedicated posts as linked to on the sidebar. As far as I’m concerned, there are four seats which are still in serious doubt – two in the House, and two in the Senate. The 1550 votes in Indi are too few to reverse Sophie Mirabella’s 405-vote deficit against Cathy McGowan, while the 849-vote lead of Labor’s Julie Owens in Parramatta is enough to withstand anything the outstanding 3258 votes might conceivably throw at it. That leaves:
Fairfax. Continuing an ongoing trend, Clive Palmer’s lead shrank yesterday from 502 to 362. This resulted from a heavy flow of postals against him (758-465) being greater than an advantage on absents (722-569 in his favour on yesterday’s batch), both of which reflect the earlier trend of postal and absent counting. The number of outstanding absents and postals has diminished to around 1000 each, which leaves the ball in the court of about 2500 outstanding pre-polls, which have so far gone nearly 57-43 against Palmer. If all existing trends continue over the remainder of the count, Palmer will land a few dozen votes short. He will then perhaps take the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns, his current Federal Court injunction to have counting stopped presumably being doomed to failure. Palmer has been invoking an anomaly in the count, much remarked upon on this site, in which the Coolum Beach pre-poll voting centre result had a more-than-plausible number of votes for LNP candidate Ted O’Brien and a mismatch with the number of votes recorded for House and Senate. However, much as Palmer might wish to invoke a ballot box-stuffing operation at once brilliantly efficient in execution and bone-headedly stupid in conception, the AEC’s explanation that the Coolum Beach and Nambour PPVC results had been entered the wrong way around is likely to stand up in court. It is a duly troubling prospect that Palmer’s Senate representatives may emerge as important players in the looming round of electoral reform.
McEwen. After late counting initially flowed heavily against him, Labor member Rob Mitchell has rallied with a strong performance on absents and late-arriving postals. He now leads by 192 votes, which will widen if the tide continues to flow his way. However, it remains to be seen what as many as 5000 pre-polls hold in store. The first batch favoured Mitchell 497-458, but the remainder might come from less favourable areas.
Western Australian Senate. The most excellent Senate modelling of PB regular Truth Seeker illustrates the delicate balance of the count here, and the stars that need to remain aligned if Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party is indeed to find his way to the Senate off 0.2% of the vote. Key to the outcome is Dropulich remaining ahead of the Rise Up Australia party after distribution of preferences from Australian Voice, after which his snowball builds all the way to a quota. This might yet be undone by a gentle trend towards RUA on late counting, together with the unknown quantity of below-the-line votes. Should Dropulich fall short, not only will his own seat instead go to Zhenya Wong of the Palmer United Party, but the complexion of the race for the final seat between Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Labor’s Louise Pratt will change. This is because the comfortable win presently projected for Ludlam is achieved off Palmer preferences, which won’t be available to him if the votes are used to elect Wong. Truth Seeker’s projection is that Pratt will “almost certainly” defeat Ludlam on a scenario in which Wong is elected.
Tasmanian Senate. The issue here can be neatly observed on the ABC results calculator, the crucible of the outcome being the second last count (Count 24). Here the calculator, which treats all votes as below-the-line, has the Liberal Democrats leading Palmer United Party candidate Jacqui Lambie by 29,705 votes to 28,608. Since Palmer preferences favour the Liberals over the Liberal Democrats, their candidate’s exclusion then delivers victory to the third Liberal, Sally Chandler. However, if that gap of 1097 should close, the Liberal Democrats will be excluded instead, and most of the votes then distributed will flow to Lambie and secure election for another PUP Senator. The size of the gap might make that appear unlikely, but Tasmania has an unusually high rate of below-the-line voting, and one might surmise that it will favour the greatly more visible PUP over the Liberal Democrats. UPDATE: Looks like I wasn’t taking the Sex Party challenge with due seriousness – they win the last seat that might otherwise go to Liberal or the Palmer United Party if they stay ahead of Labor at Count 21, as they get Palmer preferences ahead of the Liberals. The current count has them doing this by the grand total of 14,275 to 14,274.
[Actually it had a record 11 Sean]
Sorry I read it in a comment on SMH
[Give him a break! Hockey is still hogging the LNP’s only calculator that goes up as high as eleventy.]
But to be equally fair, Sean got 2 higher than Diaz in the count to 6 challenge.
CANDIDATE MATERIAL!
[WeWantPaul
Posted Tuesday, September 17, 2013 at 10:41 pm | PERMALINK
Sean does what he has told, he is the perfect example of the modern liberal soulless, mindless, heartless and fundamentally and totally dishonest.]
Quite a good description of modern Labor!
WeWantPaul
I don’t think Sean is actually a Liberal, he may be a Liberal supporter but he doesn’t appear to be a member for he isn’t aware of the 50/50 rule which governs his party.
And the new Opposition frontbench will be positively bristling with talented women. Macklin and McLucas will probably stand down, but the ones I named above will be joined by Melissa Parke, Kate Lundy, Sharon Bird, Kate Ellis and Amanda Rishworth, and I would think Gai Brodtmann and Clare O’Neil will be on the frontbench before long.
The Washington shooter was apparently a “practising Buddhist”.
Practising doesn’t appear to have helped with the “no violence Monkey” bit….
Psephos:
Do you think the quota rule helped any of the women in the recent ALP Cabinet?
Yes, again, I dont think Abbott will prove as clever as Howard in running culture war distractions, and I think this cabinet speaks for itself in terms of who he is and what he represents: an outdated, overrated throwback.
So my advice to the ALP would be continue as Bowen has started very ably as interim leader: take the piss out of Abbott for 3 years on these scores. Humour and ridicule have many strategic advantages over worthy outrage – and are just as effective. Paint him as someone who cant be taken seriously by a modern progressive society – rather than as a threat to it.
And save your energy for when he comes for the big stuff: IR, health, education.
1Pilbersek
2Wong
3Macklin
4Jacinta Collins
5Julie Collins
6Catherine King
7Kate Lundy
8Melissa Parke
9Kate Ellis
10Amanda Rishworth
11Sharon Bird
12Gai Brodtmann
13Clare O’Neil
14McLucas
15 Anna Burke
add
Albo
Bill Shorten
Andrew Leigh
Bob Carr
Gary Gray
That is a pretty strong 20
Ed Husic
[Do you think the quota rule helped any of the women in the recent ALP Cabinet?]
There’s no quota in Cabinet selection.
If you’re referring to the affirmative action rule in pre-selections (to which I’m opposed), I doubt it. Talented women such as those I’ve named get preselected on merit.
1Pilbersek
2Wong
3Macklin
4Jacinta Collins
5Julie Collins
6Catherine King
7Kate Lundy
8Melissa Parke
9Kate Ellis
10Amanda Rishworth
11Sharon Bird
12Gai Brodtmann
13Clare O’Neil
14McLucas
15 Anna Burke
add
Albo
Bill Shorten
Andrew Leigh
Bob Carr
Gary Gray
Ed Husic
Chris Bowen
Tony Burke
Mark Twitlewaite
Yes, the ALP should balance things out by having only women in the Shadow Cabinet, other than a single token man (ahem….I guess that would have to be the LOTO)!
See what sort of reaction that gets from the masses! :devil:
mexican:
Allannah MacTiernan.
Very early days yet, but I’m wondering if anyone here who was a bit closer to the action then than I was gets a feeling that the Abbott government might turn out to be a bit like the Borbidge government in Queensland? Quite a few hicks, nothing much by way of shining talent, and keen to demonstrate that it didn’t really believe in actually learning lessons which might help it in future.
[See what sort of reaction that gets from the masses!]
Do you have an intelligent contribution to make on this subject, or just leftover sexist jokes from Young Lib dinners?
[and I think this cabinet speaks for itself in terms of who he is and what he represents: an outdated, overrated throwback.]
Abbott is a puppet, so I reckon the front bench was chosen for him with no real say by him at all.
HEnce his disappointment that there aren’t more women on his front bench.
Fessy
Yes Allannah MacTiernan should be included as could Julie Owens
When one looks at this list of some 26 names the ALP does bat deep and i am sure i have missed a few.
[Allannah MacTiernan]
Well, Allannah is 60, so I’m not sure what her long-term contribution will be. Maybe Speaker after 2016. 🙂
God knows whether Mr Rudd ever reads the comments on this blog, but if he does, I am sure, as the pre-eminent “player with minds” of our times, he would be delighted to see how so many of his sworn enemies are totally dominated, seemingly in every waking hour, by their obsessions about him.
[Abbott is a puppet, so I reckon the front bench was chosen for him with no real say by him at all.]
The political lovechild of Minchin and Murdoch.
Well, he’s the one who has to wear it.
[Psephos
….
Do you have an intelligent contribution to make on this subject, or just leftover sexist jokes from Young Lib dinners?]
I am sure Young Lib dinners must be a hoot, but have no experience of one, I am afraid!
I am serious, it would be very significant if there were more women in the shadow cabinet than there were in the previous Cabinet. Gives the we are modern and balanced, he is old fashioned and sexist meme a run…
Chief Scientist Chubb tells Alberici that he isn’t too worried about not having a Science Minister(y) so long as there’s someone senior in the government who will push the development of matters Science.
And who does he think will be that person?
“Presumably Mr Abbott” .
That’s not really a scientific statement IMHO.
Well, Allannah is 60, so I’m not sure what her long-term contribution will be. Maybe Speaker after 2016. 🙂
I do not know what her health is like but 60 is early middle age these days…but Speaker after 2016 would be excellent news…
At least the Abbott cabinet can’t be accused of being ageist..
Must be one of the highest quantity of over 50’s in history
Abbott to dump 3 climate agencies, the Climate Change Authority, the Clean Energy Commission, and the Climate Change Commission.
[I am serious, it would be very significant if there were more women in the shadow cabinet than there were in the previous Cabinet. Gives the we are modern and balanced, he is old fashioned and sexist meme a run…]
I’ll bear that in mind for when I’m consulted about the Shadow Cabinet.
(Cont)… Pressed wrong button.
So Mod, how should the Liberal party go about fixing its problem? Maybe it’ll fix itself? Does it even have a problem?
[Maybe Speaker after 2016. ]
I’d happily settle for that!
I think Mod Lib may has a point if the next ALP leader took 10 women from the list above plus the nine men listed the response from the electorate will be interesting.
[And who does he think will be that person? ]
Bishop, Turnbull and Robb are just about the only senior members of the new government who are sufficiently in touch with reality to know or care about science. Most of the rest appear to believe in voodoo.
psyclaw:
Chubb has always struck me as a straight shooter from the media appearances I’ve experienced of him.
FFS …. Wrong one twice.
Anyway …….. Abbott’s chief business advisor Newman today says AGW is a myth. Professor Chubb says this is silly statement.
But it seems that the crap of AGW climate change is well and truly in the Monkey’s aim.
Tisme
[As I understand it]
There’s your first mistake.
[the low paid community sector workers are still getting every cent promised to them]
There’s your second. Tony Abbott the worker’s friend, standing up for worker’s rights. That should help with their cost of living.
Sean
HAHAHAHA
Tone’s cabinet is not made up of high quality over 50s.
The ALP bat down to at least 26 proven good quality MP’s the Liberals would struggle to bat down to 20 proven quality MP’s
Psephos@968
And yet no-one seems at all concerned that Hilary Clinton will be in her late 60s when she makes a run to become POTUS.
Allannah should be seen as having 10 years or more in front of her.
Yikes there’s a possum in my kitchen, and he’s not there to discuss opinion polls!
Chief Scientist Chubb tells Alberici that he isn’t too worried about not having a Science Minister(y) so long as there’s someone senior in the government who will push the development of matters Science.
And who does he think will be that person?
“Presumably Mr Abbott” .
Abbott’s statement that climate change is absolute crap is simply a subset of science is absolute crap. Anyway he will be too busy being the Minister for Women…
[Allannah should be seen as having 10 years or more in front of her.]
I certainly hope so, but the ALP does have a “retire at 65” rule, at least in Victoria.
Confessions
Yes, Chubb was very calm and measured and probly being very diplomatic in his comments.
He may have even been strategically and very obliquely sarcastic about Abbott being the one to promote science.
But the signs are quickly emerging, as any perceptive voter would have anticipated, of the Monkey working hard to steer the nation backwards.
Contrast this with Labor’s emphasis on education, nbn, and future proofing our society and economy.
Is it a forlorn hope that at some point of time Abbott will get genuine analysis/ accountability by the MSM?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/anthony-albanese-launches-labor-leadership-campaign/4963820
Wong and Combet out tonight supporting Albo. Plibersek in attendance (I assumeshe’ll attend Shorten’s as well though).
Great spectacle of party democracy!
Psephos@989
Oh… I think HREOC may have a view on that.
MacTiernan is serious talent. She should be offered a position on the front bench. She also will be popular in WA.
[DisplayName
Posted Tuesday, September 17, 2013 at 11:09 pm | PERMALINK
So Mod, how should the Liberal party go about fixing its problem? Maybe it’ll fix itself? Does it even have a problem?]
I have been pondering this for some days. I am inherently against quotas, but I am also against self-regulation when it fails (and the current situation is kinda like self-regulation).
Don’t take this the wrong way, but there appears to be an overrepresentation of childless or lesbian with child women in politics at the moment. Tanya P a huge exception, but Bishop, Gillard, Wong good examples, and Roxon leaving also supports this point.
What can be done to improve the current situation?
I don’t really know, but I don’t like the two current solutions…
Lets test Sean’s claim about quality
ALP
1Pilbersek
2Wong
3Macklin
4Jacinta Collins
5Julie Collins
6Catherine King
7Kate Lundy
8Melissa Parke
9Kate Ellis
10Amanda Rishworth
11Sharon Bird
12Gai Brodtmann
13Clare O’Neil
14McLucas
15Anna Burke
16Allannah MacTiernan
17Julie Owens
18Albo
19Bill Shorten
20Andrew Leigh
21Bob Carr
22Gary Gray
23Ed Husic
24Chris Bowen
25Tony Burke
26Mark Twitlewaite
27Michelle Rowlands
Liberal/National
1Malcolm Turnbull
2Josh Frdenberg
3Kelly O’Dwyer
4Bruce Billson
5Alan Tudge
6Dan Tehan
7Helen Kroger
8Fiona Nash
9Sharim Stone
10Sarah Henderson
11Sindoaids
12Chritan Porter
13Julie Bishop
14Bridget McKenzie
15Connie Wells
16M Cash
17Maris Paynes
18Sussan Lay
19Scott Morrison
20Joe Hockey
21Steve Ciabo
The coalition only *imagines* its against quotas.
In fact theyve had Ministerial quotas for NATs for years, including the Deputy PM position.
Not that Im suggesting Truss wouldnt get it on a merit basis! 🙂
[I think HREOC may have a view on that.]
Quite possibly so, if it was ever challenged, but I don’t think it has been. George Seitz just ignored the rule and got away with it.
Wong and Combet out tonight supporting Albo. Plibersek in attendance (I assumeshe’ll attend Shorten’s as well though).
Hope she doesn’t end up being labelled “a good, loyal girl”…
22 Greg Hunt