Random observations

Scattered thoughts on the Senate, the western Sydney electorate of Fowler, Bob Katter, the informal vote rate, and the fine art of poll aggregation.

Time for a new thread, so here’s some very scattered thoughts that it occurs to me to share at this late hour:

• I had a piece on the Senate result in Crikey yesterday, and have been keeping a low profile on Poll Bludger in part because I’ve been busy fielding inquiries from media outlets eager to hear an election wonk’s take on the whole affair. If you’d like to comment on the progress of late counting in the Senate I’d encourage you to do so on the dedicated thread, or at least re-paste your comments there after leaving them on this one.

• I’d also like to encourage those with particular insights to offer on late counting in close lower house seats to share the love in the relevant comments threads, which can serve as useful clearing houses for information for those of us trying to keep up. Note that these posts can be accessed through links near the top of the sidebar.

• So what the hell happened in Fowler? There was, as we know, a much milder swing against Labor in western Sydney than media hype and certain local opinion polls had primed us for. However, that scarcely explains the thumping 8.8% swing enjoyed by Labor journeyman Chris Hayes. What presumably does explain it is Liberal candidate Andrew Nguyen, chosen by the party with a view to snaring the Vietnamese vote in Cabramatta, who suffered swings approaching 20% in that very area. As to what Vietnamese voters might have known about Nguyen that the Liberal Party did not, I cannot even speculate. However, it won’t be the only question the party has to ask itself about its candidate selection processes in New South Wales, for the second election in a row.

• It wasn’t a very good election for Bob Katter, who failed in his bid to bring new allies to Canberra and had his seemingly impregnable hold on Kennedy cut to the bone. One reason of course was that he was squeezed out by Clive Palmer (with due apologies for the unattractiveness of that image). However, another was very likely a preference deal he cut with Labor which in the event did neither party any good. I would also observe that this is not Katter’s first failed attempt at empire-building. At the 2004 Queensland state election, Katter organised an alliance of independents with a view to activating discontent over sugar industry policy, and the only one to poll a substantial share of the vote had done nearly as well without Katter’s help at the previous election. Even the much-touted successes of Katter’s Australian Party at last year’s Queensland election involved it a) absorbing probably transient protest votes which formed part of the huge swing against Labor, and b) electing two members who could just easily have won their seats as independents. Katter’s constituency would evidently prefer that he stick to being an independent local member, and limit his broader ambitious to bequeathing the family firm to his son.

• As well as witnessing an explosion in the micro-party vote, the election has at the very least seen the rate of informal voting maintain the peak scaled at the 2010 election. Limiting it to ordinary election day votes to ensure we’re comparing apples with apples (pre-poll and postal voters being generally more motivated and hence less prone to informal voting), the informal vote rate has progressed from 4.18% to 5.82% to 5.92%. Presumably the Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a ballot paper study to let us know how much this is down to proliferating candidate numbers leading to inadvertent mistakes, and how much to disaffection leading to deliberate spoilage of ballot papers.

• If I do say so myself, my BludgerTrack poll aggregate performed rather well. The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote is at 53.15% on current counting, which is likely to edge up towards the projected 53.5% as the remaining votes come in. Better yet, there’s a good chance the state seat projections will prove to have been exactly correct, allowing for the fact that the model did not accommodate non-major party outcomes such as the possible wins for Clive Palmer in Fairfax and Cathy McGowan in Indi. No doubt this is partly down to luck. There was some imprecision on the primary vote, with the Coalition about a point too low and the Greens about a point too high (though the model in fact scaled down the latter from the pollsters’ published results), with the circle being squared by a preference allocation method that proved over-favourable to the Coalition, based as it was on the 2010 election result (although I’m pretty sure it still performed better than a method based on respondent allocation would have done).

Nonetheless, the model was certainly successful enough to confirm the wisdom of its basic premise that the best way to read the campaign horse race is to a) only pay attention to large-scale polling, i.e. national and state-level results, b) adjust pollsters for bias according to their past performance where sufficient observations are available from recent history, c) instead use the pollster’s deviation from the aggregated poll trend where sufficient observations are not available, and d) weight the results of each pollster according to how historically accurate/consistent with the trend they have been. As to the performance of the polls themselves, I’ll have a lot more to say about that when all the votes are in. In the meantime, here’s a broad brush overview from Matthew Knott at Crikey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,937 comments on “Random observations”

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  7. Ron Boswell also made a great contribution to the ssm debate.

    [“Two mothers or two fathers can’t raise a child properly. Who takes the boy to football? Who tells him what’s right from wrong? What does he do? Go along with mum, or two mums? How does he go camping or fishing? It won’t work, it’s defying nature!”]

  8. I was not happy last night with Kim Carr speaking on behalf of his hero, wtte “I haven’t spoken to Kevin but I know he’ll stay on for the full term.” Right back into his previous role as stirrer.

  12. Assuming that Ron Boswell never wrote his own media releases and had staff do it for him, I’d say there are people out there more stupid than he is. Most of his press releases were nothing more than conspiracy theories.

  16. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 15m
    Most union leaders who enter parliament 1. have executive experience 2. have experience winning elections 3. have strong policy views.]

  19. Dee Roxanna:

    [The Greens will go the way of the Democrats if they jump into bed with Rabbott.]

    That I agree with, but its unimaginable. Abbott has nothing to offer that we would want and he of all folk would want to stay clear of us.

  20. Yes, well done William – top marks for your modelling, which has proved itself topshelf yet again.

    I look forward to your comments on the polls.

    I for one was pleased to see Morgan take the cake (those of you who then talk about MOE should understand that pollsters dont see things that way at all: the headline figure is the prize).

    My own klanger award goes to the “Combo-marginal WTF polls”, for its services to reducing our net understanding of likely voter behaviour.

    Lets hope we never see them again: they were worthless.

    So, William: do you ever get to write the thesis?

  23. I also agree that Howes would be a dreadful idea. He brings nothing but tatty baggage to them. he’s like that other spiv in NSW who became a Friedmanite neo-liberal under the ill-fated Iemma regime after a brief flirtation with the SYA in the late 1970s. The name escapes me — possibly a repressed memory.

  24. Lefty

    [The ALP needs Paul Howes like a hole in the head.

    That PUP senator from TAS looks like a genuine pain in Abbott’s behind.]

    I agree, Paul Howes!

    As for PUP representatives!

    You’ll find all those fringe dwellers views align neatly with the Coalition.

    Brandis could hardly contain his joy.

  27. Faine asked Jeff Kennett if he might be interested in Steve Bracks’s cancelled appointment.
    Kennett: “Me a diplomat? You’re joking.”

  29. Fowler

    Having an ethnic candidate and banning him from talking to his constituents sounds like it may have contributed ++ another victory for NSW lib organisation

  31. Abbott has said that he will continue with the arrangement put in place with PNG re asylum seekers. But will also implement turning back the boats……

  32. [68
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, September 10, 2013 at 8:48 am | PERMALINK
    Dee Roxanna:

    The Greens will go the way of the Democrats if they jump into bed with Rabbott.

    That I agree with, but its unimaginable. Abbott has nothing to offer that we would want and he of all folk would want to stay clear of us.]

    Fran, I’m counting on it. This is not what we formed the Greens for.

  33. Yes, Carr MAY resign from the Senate and Paul Howes MAY replace him.

    But can we try and stop being sucked into the media meme of the day until a few of those ‘mays’ are actually reality?

  35. the lovey dovey love ins here to me this pace is just a

    bearer of bad tidings

    well I am not an inerlectual snob so I suppose this is the wrong place for me,.

  36. [Assuming that Ron Boswell never wrote his own media releases and had staff do it for him, I’d say there are people out there more stupid than he is. Most of his press releases were nothing more than conspiracy theories.]

    Conspiracy Theories? Bon Roswell? 😀

    Come on, give me credit for that one :devil:

  37. poroti

    Posted Tuesday, September 10, 2013 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    The NT treasurer lets one of the LNP’s many cats out of the bag. A “misunderstanding” according to Natasha Griggs 😆

    David Tollner earlier told ABC Radio that Territory power bills would stay the same after the tax was abolished
    ———————

    I said it yesterday. I had coffee and cake with some executives from a power company.

    They have invested in renewable energy, R&D etc to produce a more efficient generation of power.

    What about does about the current (previous govt) funding arrangements will impact them.

    If funding from Govt is stopped then they have several choices – stop what they are doing and seek compensation from the Govt or not reduce prices to provide the funding.

  38. A Message of Support for Those Who Voted for Abbott

    Good luck to the pensioners: Be patient, your next rise will come, but only after Labor is re-elected

    Good luck to the small businesses: It’s OK, the immediate tax write off of $10,500 wasn’t really much anyway, was it

    Good luck to schoolkids parents: Don’t worry, Gonski was only spin about education, and who really needed the school kids bonus

    Good luck to those with mortgages: We can all easily find another $5K or$6K a year to cover rises

    Good luck to employees: It’ll be OK …You can trust your boss. There will be no unfair dismissals and penalty rates were not all that much money anyway

    Good luck to federal public servants: Abbott probably won’t target your department anyway

    Good luck with those who are clients of Centrelink, Medicare and other agencies: The days are long, there’s plenty of time….what does it matter if you have bigger queues for frontline services

    Good luck to the disabled; Be patient. Remember Mr Abbott did say that Disability Care was aspirational and he’ll fully implement it when we can afford it.

    Good luck to big business: You have voted for repeal of carbon pricing for the moment only. Enjoy the uncertainty again, which will precede the inevitable re-introduction of it.

    Good luck to all consumers: I’m sure Mr Abbott is being honest when he says that big business will not pass the costs of PPL down the food chain

    Good luck to self funded retirees: I’m sure that based on past performance, the conservos are your friends and will soon make you all eligible for many concessional rebates….. cheap prescriptions and the like. Conservos always help out in that way.

    Good luck to workers re their super: The many $1000sK that delaying your compulsory entitlements is a drop in the ocean ….. the exponential benefits of compound interest over a couple of decades is much over rated anyway

    Good luck to those relying on public health and dental care: As a former Health Minister (cutter) I’m sure Mr Abbott has you uppermost in his thoughts …… really!

    Good luck to electricity consumers: Your power bills WILL come down. Coming, coming, coming, coming ……soon now …….. coming soon …..sooooooooon …..just trust the PM you elected,

    Good luck to us all: Let’s face it, recessions come and recessions go. No probs here.

  39. I’m not seeing the aversion to Paul Howes personally. He’s at least articulate and will probably be an asset in opposition.

    There’s more dead weight there that could be jettisoned too. I won’t name names.

  41. Paul Howes is quite ugly… (looks like an overfed feline) I think faceless would be a better look for him.

    Apparently broomsticks are carbon neutral, so Milne gets into work without feeling guilty 😛 though Sophie probably used a vacuum cleaner.

  42. wal kolla@85


    Assuming that Ron Boswell never wrote his own media releases and had staff do it for him, I’d say there are people out there more stupid than he is. Most of his press releases were nothing more than conspiracy theories.


    Conspiracy Theories? Bon Roswell?

    Come on, give me credit for that one

    OK – your so called ‘reasoning’ would go like this –

    Boswell must have done some really dumb things in a previous life to be so dumb in this one.

    Just like you.

  44. [@MikeKellyMP: By way of information it appears there may be up to 13,000 more votes to count along with finishing off the re-count so it will take time.]

    Looking grim for Kelly at 500 odd behind.

  47. The Bracks decision reminds me of an old gripe…

    The Liberals don’t appoint ALP members (including ordinary branch members) to anything – school boards, hospital boards, water authorities, etc – regardless of their skills and qualifications.

    They appoint obscure Libs, though.

    Which means that it’s difficult for ALP members to build up administrative skills and an understanding of governance etc.

    When Labor gets in, it doesn’t appoint ALP members to such boards, either, unless they’re clearly there on merit (see problem above). They do, however, appoint Liberals (because Liberals can argue that they’re there on merit — see above).

    Outside of these boards, there’s very limited opportunities for ordinary branch members to build up the kind of CV a putative candidate needs to be preselected.

    Which is one of the reasons why unions and electoral offices tend to become the breeding ground for future Labor candidates….

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