Abbott government day one: open thread

Breaking news: Abbott wins.

Nothing actually further to add at this stage, but the new day requires a new thread. Please observe the plethora of new posts below for those wishing to follow late counting, and especially the fairly detailed one attempting to review the Senate situation. These extend on to the second page; I’ll do something to make them more accessible in the morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,780 comments on “Abbott government day one: open thread”

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  1. Geoffrey
    One of the problems of this blog and probably has been to underestimate Abbott – if Labor is to recover it would be wise to work out how he works and why he is successful.

  2. Tanya good because she can talk about policy. LNP blowhards still doing slogans. No idea. The economy will be better because the economy will be better.

  3. [@meadea: The Liberal Democrat Senator blaming “blacks and Hispanics” for gun deaths in the USA. #TenLate]

    Tony Abbott will be happy to take this nutter’s vote

  4. DN
    I have the luxury at picking on all party hacks in this room, thank you very much, because I am not one.

    You didn’t answer the brief.

    The proposition you raised was mocking the Coalition trying to do anything for the environment. I simply asked you to put your money where your mouth is.

    Are you all ideology or do you practice what you preach.

    If you don’t how can you reject a proposition to actually take Carbon out of the air (whatever the party is that presents it) if you don’t live as though AGW was top priority.

    So, how DO you live…?

  5. PENNY WONG IS A SOUTH AUSTRALIAN!!!!!
    SHE WOULD NEED A SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SEAT

    If Wong was to transfer to the lower house and the next election Hindmarsh is not a bad option unless one of the Labor seats becomes available. The only other option would be Boothby as she is not going to win Grey, Barker, Mayo or Sturt.

  6. Turns out Lib Dems support SSM.

    OTOH, they also say things like “why should only the police and army have weapons? Is that really security?”

    I think you might have mistaken our arseholes for assholes mate.

  7. TP
    No idea what that means nor do I care.
    Windsor was closer to the action than you or I and has the right to express his opinion
    Someone brighter than me said that apologising to Rudd would be like thanking an arsonist for setting fire to your house and then coming back to save not the furniture but the kids’ bikes from the shed.
    Rudd failed miserably but what I do not understand is the religiosity of your support of him.

  8. SF

    Serious Question: Someone asked me the other day why any proposition to plant vegetation seems to get reduced to “Soil Carbon” when, by far, there is more effective sequestration from quickly growing, harvesting and using those products. Why don’t those who make decisions count this as sequestration?

    We as scientists certainly do, as do my associates in the DPI and CSIRO.

  9. @Roger Miller 3553

    Remember, its in their DNA.

    The Libs are like the X-Men, but with economic superpowers. No need for silly stuff like policy when you have Hockey casting his magic spells on the Treasury.

  10. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3260
    I am glad someone had the guts to tell Rudd where to go. But leave the decision to him. Come on Labor. Expel him, he deserves no less. ]

    So you must support Gillard’s expulsion then, since it was she that stabbed a first term PM in the back on the behalf of factional power brokers.

    In fact the case for hers and others to do with that betrayal of Australians most assuredly deserve expulsion from politics so self serving and pointless arrogant their act.

    So I know you have to agree with that since you want Rudd expelled because of alleged white anting and taking over from Gillard when she totally failed as a national leader.

    Good on you then.

  11. [@meadea: The Liberal Democrat Senator blaming “blacks and Hispanics” for gun deaths in the USA. #TenLate]

    Is this the one guytaur says supports same sex marriage?

  12. DN

    Still dodging the question.

    How Green is your lifestyle?? Come on, seriously, how much does your lifestyle reflect your beliefs environmentally?

  13. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3340

    Carey,
    It is not about punishment, it is about removing a traitor.

    Yeah, right, I get it Puff.
    The man who cops the knife in the back is somehow responsible for the treachery of the knife wielders.
    Stop re-writing history.

    If you want a reasonable and objective account of why Gillard was replaced try this:
    [No amount of good campaigning would have turned Labor’s vote around under Julia Gillard’s leadership, he said.
    ‘If Julia Gillard had been leading Labor, it wouldn’t have been 57 seats that Labor got, it would have been 37 or even fewer,’ he said.

    ‘The electoral wipeout which I think both sides were actually expecting would have actually occurred. When Julia Gillard was deposed as Labor leader she had a primary vote of 29 per cent, and with the Palmer factor that would have taken a few percent off that, then Labor’s vote would have been in the mid 20s.’
    ‘I think it is just rewriting history to suggest that the result would have been better with Gillard. Even though Rudd ran a dreadful campaign, he certainly achieved a better result.’]
    Labor campaign recriminations begin

  14. [If Wong was to transfer to the lower house and the next election Hindmarsh is not a bad option unless one of the Labor seats becomes available. The only other option would be Boothby as she is not going to win Grey, Barker, Mayo or Sturt.]
    I don’t think Hindmarsh would be a good option.

    Hindmarsh has become a Liberal seat that just happened to go Labor 2004 – 2010 because of a good local campaigning MP.

    I think Williams will increase his majority at the next election.

  15. [The only time a defeated PM has not congratulated his opponent either as PM or in his seat” ]

    That would be poor, if it were true. But it isnt:

    [I wish him well now in the high office of PM of this country. Therese and I wish he, Margie and their family well in coping with the stresses and strains of high office that lie ahead. We know a little bit of what that is like.

    And Therese and I look forward to greeting them at the Lodge early next week in the same gracious manner with which Mr and Mrs Howard welcomed us six years ago.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudds-concession-speech-20130907-2tcxi.html#ixzz2eOs0Cb28

  16. I am shocked at the number of posters on here who say don’t put a woman up for leader, I assume Florence N, had the same thing thrown at her when she wanted female nurses , and the first female doctors, engineers etc went through the same thing. Shame on all of you, women arn’t fragile little petals who can do the work in the background as long as they don’t lead.

    I cannot believe the logic in this day and age of some of the excuses offered on here, to keep women away from leadership. I don’t think I have ever been so disgusted, as I really though we had moved beyond this,

  17. [Rudd failed miserably but what I do not understand is the religiosity of your support of him.]

    They are too emotionally invested with the cult of Rudd. Their inability to see clearly is their problem, however.

  18. Maybe Labor could give away pre-selections in cornflakes packets? It could be part of a healthy eating policy for kids by only giving away the pre-selections in muesli and other healthy eating choice cereals!

    Progressive policy making for the digital era!

  19. I see Emerson is irrelevantly continuing leadershit. How helpful.

    Remind me, whats his formal position these days, aside from lead singer in Australia’s worst comedy music act?

  20. First post for a few days. Will be interested to see how the PB dynamic changes in Opposition.

    So it looks like 89-57, from a primary of barely 34%.

    Based on that, BRAVO to the individual seat campaigns, particularly in Queensland and Victoria. Absolutely superb stuff if we’re looking at it objectively.

    Labor won 88 seats with the most popular leader in Australian political history. The Coalition will have 89 with the least popular leader in Australian history.

    Interesting times beckon.

  21. Gee Bemused
    You left this paragraph out:
    Mr Cameron was a vocal backer of Kevin Rudd against Julia Gillard in the months leading up to the Labor leadership spill this year, and believes that his calls were vindicated despite a disastrous result.
    Self justification, what

  22. Roger:

    She’s already been getting stuck into Barnett. I reckon she’d relish the chance at a go at the misogynists and nutjobs in the coalition.

  23. [If you want a reasonable and objective account of why Gillard was replaced try this]

    How can that be called objective when it’s just yet another commentator proposing an alternate universe?

    What happened to “reality” being the mantra of the day?

  24. ShowsOn,
    you might be right but if not Hindmarsh then there is only Boothby as a winnable SA seat for Labor at the next election. So if she was to want to be in the HoR then she would need to replace a Labor sitting member who might or might not be retiring. Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Makin, Kingston or Wakefield.

  25. MP’s have moved States before – EG Theodore for one. I am sure Adam can identify the specific circumstances since Federation!

  26. I don’t think Hindmarsh would be a good option.

    [Hindmarsh has become a Liberal seat that just happened to go Labor 2004 – 2010 because of a good local campaigning MP.]

    It was only a Liberal seat during the 90s because, at first, the Labor Party’s name was mud and because Gallus was a good local campaigning MP.

    [I think Williams will increase his majority at the next election.]

    I think that’s possible but not because of some perceived partisan bent of the seat but, rather, because Williams actually has the vibe of a serious candidate. It really depends how he acts in the next term (whether he stays engaged with the electorate or just acts as a cog in the party machine or a seat warmer) but it’s certainly a seat that will be one of the ALP’s top targets at the next election.

  27. Richard Marles trying to convince Alberici that the Labor disunity is rooted in the 2003-2006 period when Crean, Beazley, Latham and Rudd were LOTOs.

    Of these, IMHO there were two who still haven’t accepted the decision to dethrone them, and two who were able to move on.

    You point and I’ll whistle.

  28. Knowing nothing about the ALP MP for Makin it does seem to be the best lower house option for Penny Wong.

    I am not expecting this to be answered but does she live in an ALP seat, i only raise that for if she was in a safe seat then maybe that could become an option

  29. [MP’s have moved States before – EG Theodore for one. I am sure Adam can identify the specific circumstances since Federation!]
    Barnaby Joyce. Billy Rat Hughes.

  30. [HAS ANYONE SEEN MEGUIRE BOB?!?!

    Only his right wing equivalent (you)]

    Yes, from memory Bob was out on the number of Labor seats by a good 20 or so.

    Im not sure your punts did a lot better, Jisme.

  31. [Maybe Labor could give away pre-selections in cornflakes packets? ]

    I don’t think the party of Jaymes Diaz can be too precious about pre-selection procedures. The NSW Liberals have a serious problem with religious-ethnic branch-stacking which regularly results in very poor candidates being chosen. The Diaz family are notorious branch-stackers, and Jaymes being a candidate is their reward, despite the fact that everyone from Abbott down knew he’s an idiot. Now this has cost them Greenway.

  32. [I am not expecting this to be answered but does she live in an ALP seat, i only raise that for if she was in a safe seat then maybe that could become an option]
    I think she lives in Sturt.

  33. Rubbish Adam,

    Look at the neighbouring swings. It was just a sophomore surge in Greenway.

    Of course I look forward into the investigation into Hotham preselection amongst others!

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