Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

Comments Page 46 of 48
1 … 45 46 47 48

  8. J341983

    I agree the idea of the Liberals winning 105 seats is hard to image even with this polling but i suspect it is worst case and this time tomorrow they will be mid-90s.

  9. [I really hope that the Greens/ALP control the Senate, I can’t wait to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the LNP.]

    No, if Abbott is going to be PM let him have the Senate as well. Then he can wreak his evil unimpeded and his demise will be all the quicker.

  11. liyana

    From stuff heard including cranky Senator X presser today I think SHY will return to the Senate and thus there will be enough Greens to ally with Labor for control

  12. My take on Senate results:

    Thanks to Truth Seeker for his projections, I think it is very clear that there is no way the Coalition, even with some like minded types, will control the Senate.

    My estimate for this election is-
    NSW – ALP 2, COA 3, GRN 1
    VIC – ALP 2, COA 2, GRN 1, Family First 1
    QLD – ALP 2, COA 2, GRN 1, Palmer 1
    WA – ALP 2, COA 3, GRN 1
    SA – ALP 2, COA 2, XEN 1, Climate Sceptics 1
    TAS – ALP 2, COA 3, GRN 1
    ACT – ALP 1, COA 1
    NT – ALP 1, COA 1

    So, add that to the current non-retiring Senate, and as of July 1st next year, Mr Abbott will face the following Senate of 76 members:
    ALP – 28
    Green – 11
    Coalition – 32
    Right wingers Christian cranks – 3
    Palmer – 1
    Xenophon – 1

    Hmmm…

  14. It certainly appears grim for the ALP, yes. But back in my day post-mortems were conducted after the death of the patient.

    Now its live vivisection on ABC 24!

    Anyway, back in the matrix: those senate analyses are most cheering.

  24. Time also for my prediction folks – I was hoping for some more detailed poll results but alas no.

    Coalition 98, ALP 47, Others 5 – Katter, Wilkie, Bandt plus Indi, Fairfax

    NSW Libs +13
    Independent to Coalition: Lyne, New England
    Coalition to win: Banks, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson,
    Libs to win 2 of: McMahon, Page, Werriwa, Page

    Victoria : Libs +4
    Melbourne to stay Green
    Coalition to win: Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe
    Libs to win 2 of: Chisholm, Bendigo, Holt, McEwen.
    Indi – think Mirabella might lose it.

    Queensland Libs +3
    Coalition to win: Lilley, Moreton, Petrie
    KAP will help Labor hold Capricornia
    One of: Griffith, Blair,
    Fairfax: I just think Clive might do it.

    Tasmania: Libs +3
    Coalition to win: Bass , Braddon.
    One of Lyons or Franklin

    SA: Libs +1
    Libs to win Hindmarsh
    Close: Adelaide

    NT: Libs +1
    Libs to win Lingiari

    ACT:
    Canberra could be very close

  27. John Of Melbourne@2230

    Yay Election Day! Time to turf this mob out!

    Here’s hoping LNP get control of senate

    Watch what you wish for! Not having control of the Senate extended Howard’s political longevity greatly; once he had it he could no longer help himself.

    That said, if it is a choice between a Coalition majority and a Coalition doing deals with Madigan and some FFer and KAP and some micro I’ve never heard of and Nick X … well with all due respect to Nick X who I don’t mind at all, give me the LNP majority!

    zoidlord: There is no key HOR seat number for Senate control.

  29. My model is now showing 53.6/46.4 2PP which is the highest it has been sinc June. On that basis the Coalition would win 91-95 seats. Much will depend on how preferences flow in QLD as the numbers of seats both ways that can swing based on preferences and its hard to pin them down confidently.

  30. I am waiting to see if Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper can:

    – get the 4% for public funding
    – achieve the lowest ever vote for a sitting MP (whatever that might be).

  31. @Kevin/2277

    Thanks for that, but they do have limited amount of senate spots to pass bills right?

    And LNP Majority? Over my bloody pension!

  33. Abbott not getting the Senate is his ideal scenario.

    He can get into government and then do what the LNP do best federally.

    Lay in their hammock.

    They will be able to sail through 10 years not actually changing much at all and blaming the senate (but not too much) for a few things they would really love to do ( but actually no that would not want to do them).

    LNP is all about being in government. Being in government in Australia means not rocking the boat. Keep reform to a minimum.

    If Abbott had the senate they would not be able to resist actually being a ‘reform’ type conservative government, which means big changes which invariably would cause the public to get off side. Sadly, the stupid strategy of saving furniture means some chairs are gained at the cost of an extra 6 years of conservative rule.

    Labor play draughts instead of chess.

  41. Yeah I was going to say Droughts are for kids and Chess is for Adults, but that would prove liberals/abbott.

    So I rather just be annoying to them.

  43. If i remove the seats that i think are 50/50 it leaves me with

    Lib/Nats to gain
    Victoria: 3
    Corangamitte
    Deakin
    La Trobe

    SA: 1
    Hindmarsh

    Tasmania: 2
    Bass
    Braddan

    NSW: 12
    Greenway (will be closer than many others)
    Robertson
    Lindsay
    Banks
    Reid
    Page
    Edan Monaro
    Parramatta
    Dobell
    Kingston-Smith
    Barton
    McMahon

    Queensland: 4
    Moreton
    Petrie
    Lilley
    Rankin

    Plus Lingiari 1

    No changes in WA

    Melbourne to ALP
    New England & Lyne to Lib/Nats
    Indi to go to McGowen

    The new telly looks more sensible.

    Lib/Nat 94
    Ind 3
    ALP 53

    That just looks more likely than 105 LibNat

  44. zoidlord@2281

    @Kevin/2277

    Thanks for that, but they do have limited amount of senate spots to pass bills right?

    Not sure what you’re asking there. It is much harder for them to win a huge chunk of the Senate because of proportional representation and because half the seats continue from last time.

  45. I play chess, play a lot of chess. It seems to me that the strategy being suggested is a bit like a speculative queen and double rook sacrifice. It might work but really relies on the opponent being stupid. Relying on the opponent being stupid is very bad chess.

  46. [If Abbott had the senate they would not be able to resist actually being a ‘reform’ type conservative government, which means big changes which invariably would cause the public to get off side. Sadly, the stupid strategy of saving furniture means some chairs are gained at the cost of an extra 6 years of conservative rule.]

    This might be true if Abbott weren’t such a basically weird individual.

    He’ll expose himself, and in public. Nowhere to hide when you’re PM.

    Me, Im not preapred to sacrifice key elements the Rudd/ Gillard legacy (and potentially further back) to some dated truism of OZpol, when the only ideas likely to come out of this assortment of Bozos will be from the IPA, and this mob are already showing dangerously authoritarian tendencies. HIDE THE BOATZ!

    Lets be honest here: these mugs approach govt like a Young Liberal student union ticket – vengeance on their lips, culture war in their hearts, nothing on their minds.

  48. I reckon we’ll be needng senate committees independent of govt numbers for starters, given that the govt’scommittment to public truth will approach zero.

    Plus it will goad Abbott. I think that will be a strategic advantage of some value.

  49. @Kevin/2294

    What I mean to pass bills, what is the required support to pass bills in the senate (or to block them)?

    There are 76 seats in the senate.

    Is 40 seats enough to block a bill?

Comments Page 46 of 48
1 … 45 46 47 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *