Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

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  1. Dear bludgers,

    Re : My picks from an older post below. I posted this here on the date shown. I think I have the word from on high, perhaps! I Am not far off I thinks dear friends. Could be spot on. The 2PP is much higher than the polls show when we see the first prefs and correct second prefs. The 2nd prefs will be much more gracious to the coalition too — much more dear friends. Newspoll and latest others could really be 57 + % to coalition on prefs being corrected — we will see soon.

    The independents are my tally for all non coalition and ALP seats HoR. I have been praying hard for this outcome continually, me the Belwether King. There will be a clean sweep of all ALP seats in western Sydney going to the coalition too. I Am just going on record again dear friends. I am praying for a friendly senate too. I pray continually. we will see hey!!! My old post follows —

    • John
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 8:37 am | Permalink
    Dear bludgers,

    re : My poll day predictions

    These are an objective impartial look at things. no bias and not what I want but what will likely hap as I see it. we shall see in a weeks time I know. so I do not wish / want to argue / debate at all on this, as it deals with events as yet to happen. And there is no point arguing over what has not yet happed and may / may not hap. It is insanity to argue if something is correct over future event / s. It is totally illogical. The only reason one would argue over such is pure fantastical emotional delusion, as you just don’t know if correct or not.

    I think the coalition will poll federally 2 PP sep 7 @ 57 and a bit % ( 57.? % ), and the ALP 42.? %.

    As to seats that is tricky but a stab at the highest probabilities judging how trends are going and the fact a lot of voters are yet to decide still. And I think the Rudd factor is over, and the honeymoon from JG’s knifing in the back is diminishing rapidly and things are headed south for the ALP like wildfire the seats are as follows –

    HoR

    Coaliion 120 seats
    ALP 27 seats
    Independents 3 seats

    I put these on record to see how I go. I picked the 120 seats ages ago. The 57.? % to coalition is separate and confident it may be correct. My 57 has nothing to do with this Newspoll by the way. A coincidence, or is it?

    cheers

    John

  2. 120 is excessive, particularly considering no seats are expected to fall in WA, only one or two in SA and only 3-5 in Victoria.

    If Melbourne was swinging like Sydney then 120 might happen

  3. Dear bludgerinos,

    I know my spectacular results seem way too optimistic. But I Am just saying it as I see it not as the polls see it. It is not a wish list, just my prediction. We will see soon enough dear friends.

    cheers

    John

  4. [For what it’s worth, the NT News reports a Labor internal poll of 500 respondents in Solomon has them leading 50.6-49.4.]

    I don’t really believe this, but I can report that Natasha Griggs is one of the two dumbest politicians I met in Canberra. (The other was a Labor member, so I won’t name him/her!)

  5. [For what it’s worth, the NT News reports a Labor internal poll of 500 respondents in Solomon has them leading 50.6-49.4.]

    I tipped this yesterday. People dont like hit and run drivers, even when there’s a ‘narrative’ being rammed up yer jacksey.

  6. Putting together all the “most likely” results from truth seeker’s (very interesting) modelling is perhaps a little flattering to the ALP/GRN numbers as it is the best-case scenario for them in every jurisdiction except ACT, whereas there’s a significant chance of only 2 left senators in QLD/WA/SA/NSW. Combining the simulation results from each state and adding previously elected senators gives (according to my calculations):

    LNP 32.27
    ALP 26.06
    Greens 11.26
    Family First 1.48
    Xenophon 1.00
    DLP 1.00
    PUP 0.79
    Sex Party 0.48
    First Nations 0.33
    No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics 0.31
    KAP 0.25
    One Nation 0.19
    Fishing & Lifestyle 0.19
    Shooters & Fisher 0.09
    LDP 0.08
    No CSG 0.08
    Australian Independents 0.05
    Building Australia 0.03
    Democrats 0.03
    Bullet Train 0.02
    All others <0.01

    While obviously a party can't have a fraction of a senator, it does suggest that ALP+GRN will most likely have 37, and that Xenophon+DLP will have the ideological balance of power along with perhaps the Sex Party and/or Australian First Nations.

  7. John

    Looking at the polling it is easy to see the Lib/Nats going over 100 seats.

    What tends to happen is some areas get the attention and swing as expected whilst other areas less discussed swing more passively.

    Local facotrs need to be taken into account including the performance of the local MP.

    Psephos

    If i may be cheeky was it one of the following

    WS, KR, DG, SC, MA

    Will the MP i question more likely or less likely hold their seat

  8. Dear bludgers,

    re : The Dream Poll, I spoke of a lil while ago

    I thought later, if it interests any, this provides as perfect a sample as you can reasonably and affordably get for polling. It removes most and possibly all the need for trying to correct weighting and bias if done properly. And over the election cycle it is as accurate as you can get. The whole problem with these polls seems to be the weighting and bias and especially the very poor reliability of the sample chosen. the Dream Poll eliminates the probs enormously.

    As well, you can do the survey application with candidates on last state / territory and local council votes and poll these separately for great reliable polls from the very same sample as the federal voting intention poll. So it’s not a bad idea if done right perhaps.

    cheers

    John

  9. http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5169-morgan-poll-federal-election-2013-201309061457

    The L-NP (53.5%, up 3.6% since the 2010 Federal Election) is set to win a clear victory in today’s Federal Election, leading the ALP (46.5%, down 3.6%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last three days (September 4-6, 2013) on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+.

    The ALP primary vote is 31.5% (down 6.5%), well behind the L-NP primary vote at 44% (up 0.4%).

    Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (down 1.3%) and support for Independents/Others is 14% (up 7.4%) – including within that support for the Palmer United Party at 6.5% (10.5% in Queensland).

  10. Beemer, there are no Labor members with the initials MA, DG or SC. No, it wasn’t Rudd or Swan – whatever else they may be, they’re not dumb. I think the MP in question will just hold their seat. It’s quite possible to be dumb but likeable.

  11. @Dendrite

    Nice work! My spreadsheet has a similar looking number – there are 6 seats which Labor or the Greens is “favourites” to win with a probability less than 90%. The 12 Liberal senators are all 100% likely, apart from 90% Sinodinos in NSW.

    My analysis was based on polling data over the last couple of weeks. However, I will review my numbers and republish on Saturday afternoon/evening.

  12. It is an easy game of chess which is being lost.

    Labor is trying to save a measly pawn and forgetting the longer term gain.

    The conservatives in this country are conservatives but they are not driven and do not have the ticker to change the country.

    They are conservative by name and nature in that they are more than happy to just be in government and not really do anything.

    In Australia this is a winning strategy. The less a government looks like a government the more likely they will be re-elected.

    What about hawke-keating you say. Well yes they were true reformists. However, they also had one of the most split and dysfunctional conservative oppositions as well.

    It could easily have ended as early as 1987.

    Disunity is the biggest killer in politics.

    Labor has a huge task ahead because as far as I can see there are massive scars to fix. You look at people like bemused for instance. If he is a reliable indicator of what the Labor party has to deal with in the coming years then it is very difficult to see a path forward without revenge and counter revenge, recrimination and retaliation just for the sake of inter-party pride rather than the big picture.

    Hopefully I’m wrong, but this has been a truly big schism these last several years.

    Cannot see it ending quickly or happily.

  13. Truth Seeker, I pumped some (a lot) of numbers through Antony Green’s calculator for SA and came up with vastly different results depending on whether Xenophon gets a quota, or doesn’t, and whether the Carbon Sceptics get .2% like last time even though I think a lot of wind has gone out of their sails. The more I have been doodling with numbers, the more the Greens get up in SA. Am I doing something wrong?

  14. For what its worth – as a bookie who’s spent the last week watching the money flow in from all over australia:

    significant interest in big swings in NSW. The money saying Libs could easily gain 13 seats. +3 tas, +3 Vic, upto +4 qld, and then a borderline +1 in WA, SA, NT

    TOTAL of high 90s.

    personally think there will be a slight surprise to the downside with either NSW or QLD coming up short for coalition leaving them with total around 92

    bandt to win, Cathy mac to lose

  15. [And portly and Tasmanian?]

    Anyone who thinks Big Dick is dumb is making a serious mistake. He’s no intellectual, but he’s a very shrewd politician. That’s why I think he’ll hang on.

  16. The Greens are, according to my recent modelling of a few days ago, likely to get up more often than not. NCT is just a likely outsider. In my simulations, XEN had 329 simulations of less than 14.3%, but got elected in all of them. One particular scenario had NCT at 0.07% and XEN at a low 11.64%. Both get elected. If you want to email me a table/spreadsheet with ALL parties’ votes, I’m happy to run them through my simulator. My email is findable on my blog. (But i’m getting tired so do so very soon if you want to)

  17. I just plugged some rough numbers into the senate calculator for SA, which I have done a number of times before, and I got Greens winning the last seat by 342 votes. The point is that it could be very close between the Greens and Liberals (or even NCTCS but very unlikely to be them because I really doubt they will get ahead of the third Liberal)for the last place.
    I go with the Liberals getting a third senator at this stage because I think I am much more likely to be under estimating the Liberal vote in my figures. Although it is very unclear how many votes the PUP is going to get and them getting votes helps the Greens if Xenophon gets elected before PUP get excluded.

  18. Thanks Truthy,I won’t bother you with it now, you’ve been wonderful to us enough.

    And with that, even I am going to bed!

    And changing my SA prediction to 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN, 1 XEN.

  19. Independently Thinking @2324

    It seems to me that whether the Greens or Climate Sceptics get elected depends mainly on the strength of the combined ALP/GRN/Xenophon/PUP vote: if that vote is similar to or higher than expected, then the Greens make it in; if it’s lower the Climate Sceptics (or other right-wing party) usually get in. If Xenophon and PUP do well then the Greens can get elected on ~5%, while if they and Labor do poorly the Greens can get stranded in 7th place with 12% of the vote.

  20. For what it’s worth, breaking down my analysis further, I get a 1.5% chance of a 2 Left, 3 Coalition, 1 XEN breakdown in SA. Obviously if you’re assuming different inputs, you’ll get different likelihoods. But as of a few days ago, I had PUP at 2.7%! If you’ve got a crystal ball, let me know PUP vote in each state as it will help my analysis!

    In any case, I plan on blogging election night from a senate perspective so feel free to follow/comment/contribute! 🙂

  21. If Dick Adams loses his seat it will be another reason for Labor to cease their frequent leadership spills. They will not have a bouncer to protect the returning officer from the media scrum while he announces the vote.

  22. Psephos@2332

    And portly and Tasmanian?


    Anyone who thinks Big Dick is dumb is making a serious mistake. He’s no intellectual, but he’s a very shrewd politician. That’s why I think he’ll hang on.

    I have known Dick Adams well at times down the years and I concur re him not being dumb. Have had good conversations with him about all kinds of things. And yes I’ve known him to be very shrewd down the years, especially 2004. What I will say though is that when I recall the fire he showed back then when taking on Latham’s abysmally stupid forests policy, the vigorous defence of the forest industry against the sellout – well it is a similar situation now with the forest peace deal and I have not yet seen the same sort of thing. So if there are 20 point swings in little timber towns I won’t be greatly surprised.

    Used to know him back in the late 80s when my mother first got involved with local politics. He lived with Dee Alty (then Hobart alderman) in a house in North Hobart; a scientist friend of mine lived upstairs, and they had a cat which was present at political discussions of all kind.

    The cat’s name was Everybody’s Favourite.

    ============================================

    Model update coming; it’s going to throw another three to the Coalition for 22 losses. I was happy for it to shift in either direction to get me off Mackerras’ ALP seat tally.

  23. Any other weekend I would paaptsef

    Alas, the horses have been brushed aside for the polls this week. I know our form man thinks puissancse is too big…

  24. truth seeker, I have no idea what PUP will poll in SA senate. My instinct is not very much because Xenophon is an established catcher of votes not going to the major parties but maybe he is too established now and Palmer is the different/wierd option who will get votes. If PUP does get a decent amount of votes then where are they going to come from, Lab, Lib, Xenophon, Greens, Family First. Taking a percentage point (or even less maybe) off any of them and giving to PUP might make all the difference.

  25. It can be sensitive. Null hypothesis assumption would be to proportionally drop the votes of all others. Hypothetically, let’s try increasing PUP to… a range of 4-6%
    This leads to the chance of election of the 6th senator to:
    57% GRN
    35% PUP
    9% NCT

  26. Well Palmer thinks he is going to win a couple of senate seats in SA so perhaps we all have it wrong.

    I am going to be very interested to hear what he says when he ends up with at most one senator and no lower house seats.

  27. If Bowen loses hopefully Carr gives up his seat for Bowen.

    Bowen is part of the problem, not part of the solution.

    Bowen’s role as leaker-in-chief shows a complete lack of integrity and judgment (as well as him being a prime Ruddite of course).

  28. Hi PBers from Solihull UK. As an expat voted last week at Australia House, Tories not getting much business there. What I wonder is not much primary vote from ALP to LNP mostly to minors, now how good is the preference allocation of opinion pollens in such circumstances? Surely people not want Labor would go straight to LNP? So I not as pessimistic about the extent of the LNP win as others. Then again I am 10,000 miles away (which is good if we have PM ABbott. Incidentally making news here mainly that Abbott is British born lol.

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