Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

Comments Page 45 of 48
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  1. [Carey Moore
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 12:05 am | PERMALINK
    If Bowen loses, I am sure there is a car yard looking for an extra salesman!]

    Thats Shorten’s gig I reckon!

  2. LNP faithful can rejoice because the innovators and inventors, the technological brains and scientific minds will leave Australia for foreign shores. Particularly as the LNP has decided that they will determine funding for grants (They don’t believe in academics doing it) and also abolish IT research funding.
    NZ may become the beneficiary of many highly profitable inventions and innovations by Australians who could not get funding from a short sighted LNP government.

    So rejoice in your 1950s utopia LNP supporters.

  5. In Indi, Cathy McGowan would need to pull away a serious number of votes from Sophie Mirabella for McGowan to win the seat. Firstly she will cannibalise the Greens and Labor vote and then has to get a serious flow from Mirabella. It might be possible – the contest had had reasonable attention in the Melbourne press. It will be one to watch tomorrow night.

  10. Okay hopefully this adds up

    Start with
    ALP 73
    LNP 72
    Indi + Green 5

    Prediction

    ALP gain Melbourne

    Lib/Nats gain New England, Lyne

    Clive gain Fisher

    McGowen gain Indi

    Lib/Nats to gain
    Victoria: 5
    Corangamitte
    Deakin
    La Trobe
    McEwen
    Bendigo

    SA: 1
    Hindmarsh

    Tasmania: 3
    Bass
    Braddan
    Franklin

    NSW: 15
    Greenway (will be closer than many others)
    Robertson
    Lindsay
    Banks
    Reid
    Page
    Edan Monaro
    Parramatta
    Dobell
    Kingston-Smith
    Werriwa
    Barton
    McMahon
    Richmond
    Fowler (Might hold but local mayor is now a Lib and state seats went Lib)

    Queensland: 6
    Moreton
    Petrie
    Lilley
    Capricornia
    Blair
    Rankin

    Plus Lingiari

    No changes in WA

    Equals Liberals gaining 31, after lost of Indi & Fisher overall gain of 29

    Liberal/National Party 101
    Independents 4
    ALP 45

    In my view this is the worst case for the ALP and best case for the Liberals.

  23. [ @BloombergNews: Ice in Antarctica, Greenland disappearing faster, may drive sea levels higher than predicted: leaked UN documents ]
    no worries, if it becomes a problem the Libs will just jack up the debt ceiling again

  25. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Rudd 43 (+2) Abbott 45 (+2) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 55s

    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (0) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 9 (-1) Others 12 (+1) #ausvotes

  27. Psephos

    Thanks

    Okay I will leave both Fisher and Fairfax in the Liberal column and

    Wal

    My reason for the ALP losing Capricornia is the retirement of the local MP otherwise i would see it as staying in the ALP camp, Katter may help save a few seats in Queensland.

  28. [I like how some on twitter have taken to calling Abbott a Roads Scholar]

    HAH! Yes I about to say, saw him on the news: what he had in the box other leaders call “vision” was… roads.

    Tonight were gonna party like its 1959.

    As I said, invest heavily in irony and sarcasm: stocks about to rise sharply.

  31. Thanks for the kind words, Mrs IT finally asleep after the champagne, almost had to go for the valium to knock her out to get back to this.

    Just to reiterate, Hindmarsh in SA will go Lib, even ALP staffers saying that loud enough for non-Laborites to hear.

    Adelaide is too tight, the Lib campaign has been poorly organised, and unlike in the eastern states, the head man for Murdoch in SA is in love with Labor, literally, or at least the Member for Adelaide – as Kate Ellis is married to David Penberthy. The positive coverage for her in Adelaide is quite amazing:
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/special-features/four-south-australian-seats-could-change-hands-in-federal-election-2013/story-fnho52jl-1226713739092

    And the local free rags are quite telling (the City North is one of 5 that cover the seat of Adelaide):
    http://messenger.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

    Anyway, there is still some residual love for ALP in SA as our State Government isn’t as bad as the one in NSW so the baseball bats will generally be left at home, but some tennis racquets may be in use.

    Hindmarsh to go Lib, Adelaide too close to call, others stay the same.

    I also believe overall that the Libs will get 95, ALP 51, Indi to go Indie, Wilkie, Bandt and Katter to remain.

  32. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 12:14 am | PERMALINK
    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (0) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 9 (-1) Others 12 (+1)]

    That is 55% to 45% on 2010 preference flows by my calculations!

  33. I’m trying to figure out which is more depressing: Tony Abbott as PM or when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in the hanging chads election.

    It’s too close to call, I think.

  36. Wal Kolla

    About 20% of those Greens votes can be expected to go to the coalition so 33 + (0.8*9) = 40.2. Labor getting just under of others to make 46.

  38. wal kolla@2185

    Still no state breakdowns?

    See Shanahan here:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/newspoll-predicts-tony-abbott-on-course-for-40-seat-win/story-fn9qr68y-1226713844693

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/friday-federal-election-projection-model.html

    My election projection model will be updated with fresh offal when the Newspoll is published tomorrow but I expect it to go down still further from 54 for Labor.

    Posting the link again mainly for the seat betting update – absolute walloping there, Coalition have hit the lead in 100 seats.

  40. bbp:

    LNP 46%
    ALP 33%
    GRN 9% (80% prefs to ALP = give 7.2% to ALP)
    OTH 12% (40% prefs to ALP = give 4.8% to ALP)

    33 + 7.2 + 4.8 = 45% TPP to 55% Coalition

  42. Okay, may as well get my prediction on record.

    TPP: 55.2% to the Coalition

    NSW
    Independent to Coalition: Lyne, New England
    Labor to Coalition: Banks, Barton, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, McMahon, Newcastle, Page, Parramatta, Reid, Richmond, Robertson, Werriwa
    Senate: 3 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 One Nation

    Victoria
    Greens to Labor: Melbourne
    Labor to Coalition: Bendigo, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe, McEwen, Melbourne Ports
    Senate: 3 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Greens

    Queensland
    Labor to LNP: Blair, Capricornia, Griffith, Lilley, Moreton, Petrie
    Senate: 3 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 KAP

    WA
    WA National to Liberal: O’Connor
    Senate: 4 Liberal, 2 Labor

    SA
    Labor to Liberal: Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston
    Senate: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Xenophon

    Tasmania
    Independent to Liberal: Denison
    Labor to Liberal: Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons
    Senate: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens

    NT
    Labor to Country Liberal: Lingiari
    Senate: 1 Country Liberal, 1 Labor

    ACT
    Senate: 1 Labor, 1 Liberal

    Total
    House: Coalition 112, Labor 37, KAP 1
    Senate: Coalition 37, Labor 27, Greens 8, DLP 1, KAP 1, One Nation 1, Xenophon 1

    On the pessimistic side for Labor, but as far as I’m concerned there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and the Shy Tory Effect.

  45. [itsthevibe
    …..On the pessimistic side for Labor, but as far as I’m concerned there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and the Shy Tory Effect.]

    Is that “Shyte” for short?

  46. That Guardian article about Grayndler is very misleading. The reason the Greens did so well in 2010 was because their candidate Sam Byrne was a well known and respected member of the community.

    I was living in Grayndler at the time and like many people had the pleasure of meeting Sam. His high local profile helped the Greens get to second position.

    Greenland does not have the same profile or reputation hence the lower vote.

  47. @John/2244

    Depending if he looses seat or not, he will stick around for a while I think.

    1st Of October is when Parliament resumes I THINK.

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