James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
I said a month or so ago that I had made my last post and had removed PB from my PC but had my password written down.However old habits are hard to break and I have been lurking and reading with some amazement the mention of self funded retirees with some of the comments even seeming to border on a small amount of sympathy. Where were these comments when comments similar to ” Fuck em, they can all die as they all vote Liberal anyway” were made by some posters. No response at all for some of the vitriol expressed towards some who post here and some who used to post like myself on occasions. I need to thank some here for my shift from a 40 year Labor and Union man to considering voting Liberal for only the second time at any level. I need to thank those posters for pointing out what has become my true demographic.
castle@895
So I should be singing the praises of known corrupt elements in the party and those with formerly close connections with them?
And I suppose I should admire the plotters of June 2010 and the havoc they have wrought?
We need to be rid of all of that.
BW – Paragraphs mean readability.
Hard returns not.
CTAR1 897
That would be right
@Castle/898
Awww poor diddums.
PoK@901
Name names dammit! 👿
what happened to all those newspolls showing labor 52+ when kev returned, did rupe con labor.
No caucus conned itself
[he does more to put you off labor than compact crank, sean tisme and news combined.]
Ideological dogmatism is indeed a real turn-off.
[A few ‘bad apples’ could not wield much power without accomplices and followers.]
I gather you’ve never worked with a large group of people where power is wielded by a few and the rest were ignorant of that fact?
CTar:
Yes, I hope everything went smoothly for her.
jenauthor@909
The corruption in the NSW branch has been well known for many years, if not decades.
Feel free to close your eyes if you wish.
PoK
There are a wide range of opinions here, and the more insulting the posts, the less likely that many support them.
I say this to comfort myself, sometimes. 🙂
bemused
‘The corruption in the NSW branch has been well known for many years, if not decades.
Feel free to close your eyes if you wish.’
Good call, comrade.
CTaR1
Hard to do diatribe with discipline.
confessions@908
Ahhh, so that’s it. I was wondering why I didn’t appreciate a lot of your posts. 😛
jenauthor@879
So a few bad apples means the NSW ALP must be dissolved?
If we did that whenever we find bad apples there’d be no institution, public or private,
BUT they did allow two ministers to set up a number of scams that netted the participants $150,000,000.00 and cost the state at least $30,000,000.00. There aren’t many institutions private or public that have done that.
[The corruption in the NSW branch has been well known for many years, if not decades]
Corruption = the great originating principle of NSW. Period
PoK
[I need to thank some here for my shift from a 40 year Labor and Union man to considering voting Liberal for only the second time at any level. I need to thank those posters for pointing out what has become my true demographic.]
Mmm….40 year Labor and Union man influenced not by discerning policy but a few posters on a blog site?
OC and jenauthor
Was it because all involved were ALP, or because they were in government?
Power corrupts, and all that…
Boerwar call to arms
PoK
If I read you right, you are going to shift your vote from Labor to Liberal because some Labor posters said some nasty things about self-funded retirees and despite the fact that the Liberals are going to rob you of some of your hard-earned.
Makes sense to me, sort of.
You are quite right that we self-funded retirees have been the subject of crocodilian lachryosity from some Bludgers of late. But hey, if where your bread is buttered is the thing, stay away from those thieves in the Liberal Party. They are after your hard earned because they are busy giving lots of moolah to the really, truly rich.
Boerwar@913
In 1970 I found myself supporting Federal intervention in Victoria against a so-called left controlling group and in NSW against an allegedly corrupt so-called right controlling group.
Score – one out of two.
The crooks in NSW were smart enough to yield enough to survive. It cannot be allowed to happen again.
Pork Boohoo you poor sensitive soul.. uncle rup will dry yr tears
Pok
I don’t know why self funded retirees would want to vote libs when “interest rates will always be lower under a coalition govt”
@cinderella_oz: John Alexander must be getting nervous in Bennelong if this is what we get in out letterbox @jasonyatsenli http://t.co/TUSzuVY85g
guytaur @876 – Rudd’s never done that before – why would he do it now?
Boerwar:
Btw it was good to see Bluey poke his head out of his rockpool, if only for a brief moment. 🙂
Oakeshott Country@916
Well I am glad we seem to agree on that!
The scale of the proceeds of this corrupt behaviour is just breath taking.
If it proceeds to prosecution and convictions, it will be the largest crime ever committed in Australia.
PoK
I agree that some people here do more harm than good to the ALP brand.
I suspect that its mainly because here is properly the only place that they can say what they do and not be directly challenged.
I should add that there are many ALP supporters who refrain from being overly nasty.
Is there now any point in Rudd officially launching the Labor campaign tomorrow?
They will be a demoralised lot in Brisbane – can Kevy evoke the spirit of 2007 and give Labor people at least a modicum of enthusiasm for the next week?
[I gather you’ve never worked with a large group of people where power is wielded by a few and the rest were ignorant of that fact?]
I always saw kev being tossed in 2010 as an essential strength of labor that no one person was greater than the party, it was true democracy as it should be at work. The party elected by the people decided that kev was no good, the people did not elect kev.
that howard was allowed to stay to November 2007 showed what I thought was a weakness in the libs that would not show in labor.
bemused
When we get our Labor Party back from the spivs, the cheats, the corrupt, the mad, the sad, and the bad, it is people like us who are going to have to forget all about the poisonality politics of the past six years, pick up the pieces, gird our loins, and get Labor back on to something like the straight and narrow.
Crank
Same as always. Self interest
Is there a policy announcement Rudd could make tomorrow that might at the very least save some seats from going to Abbott?
Any ideas?
[Feel free to close your eyes if you wish.]
Corruption exists everywhere power is to be wielded.
I am not so naive as to expect otherwise. I am not so naive as to expect perfection. And I am certainly not so naive as to believe Rudd is a saviour any more than Abbott is the conservatives’ saviour.
All our institutions are made up of fallible and often greedy people.
We choose amongst them for those who are more likely to lead us best.
Some just hide their corruption better.
BW
[Hard to do diatribe with discipline.]
But fun on a Saturday arvo in a good cause.
Seems redundant opening a campaign after you have stuffed it up.
http://www.unitedvoice.org.au/press-releases/aged-care-crisis-will-worsen-if-tony-abbott-gets-his-way
[In last night’s political debate Tony Abbott committed that he would return $1.2 billion funding allocated to improving aged care workers’ wages to general aged care funding.
Louise Tarrant, National Secretary of United Voice, the aged care union, says “Tony Abbott is ignoring the overwhelming evidence there is a serious crisis with the aged care workforce and that this will get much worse as the ageing population increases.
“The Aged Care Workforce Supplement was introduced because aged care workers, providers, older Australians and the Labor Government faced the facts.
“Australia has a serious aged care crisis. It is virtually universally recognised that this crisis is caused by a shortage of workers. Low pay and unrealistic workloads means the sector struggles to retain and attract staff. Worse still, without urgent action, this can only worsen as Australia’s population continues to age.]
evan
I heard the major campaign launch item was an appreticeship policy. GAMECHANGER I TELLS YA!!!!
Evan
Rudd and Abbott both say private polling says its close. Ignore Robopolls
PoK
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
I said a month or so ago that I had made my last post and had removed PB from my PC but had my password written down.However old habits are hard to break and I have been lurking and reading with some amazement the mention of self funded retirees with some of the comments even seeming to border on a small amount of sympathy. Where were these comments when comments similar to ” Fuck em, they can all die as they all vote Liberal anyway” were made by some posters. No response at all for some of the vitriol expressed towards some who post here and some who used to post like myself on occasions. I need to thank some here for my shift from a 40 year Labor and Union man to considering voting Liberal for only the second time at any level. I need to thank those posters for pointing out what has become my true demographic.
—————————————————–
Says more about you than a few vitriolic posters
Port cleaning up the Filth.
Hey Evan when will you start a FB page so you can call Rudd a grey bitch? (ie go away tosser.) 😛
Jenauthor
IMHO, the corrupt tendencies have gone ahead in leaps and bounds these past few years.IMHO, we need to turn this around, rather than accept it as some sort of new normal.
CTaR1
‘But fun on a Saturday arvo in a good cause.’
Amen, brother, amen.
bw
South Australia has joined the fight. New anti corruption body.
Evan Parsons – yes – they need to do the launch to cut themselves off from the public funding they get before the launch – ALP had to squeeze as close to the election as possible because of lack of funds.
[Hey Evan when will you start a FB page so you can call Rudd a grey bitch?]
Or tweeting sexist things about women bloggers?
[Port cleaning up the Filth.]
Hey!
Fess
You a blue bagger?