Preferential treatment

Some brief insights into the horrid mess caused by our system of mandatory Senate preference dealings.

In a spirit of providing a new post every day during the campaign over and above things like the Senate of the Day entries, today I offer the following scattered assortment of bits-and-pieces relating to contentious preference deals.

• The biggest headline-generator has been the Wikileaks Party, whose most contentious choices have involved a New South Wales ticket which places the Greens behind both the quasi-fascist Australia First and, more consequentially, Shooters & Fishers, and a Western Australian ticket which has the Greens behind the Nationals. Responding to an immediate backlash on social media, the decisions were put down to “administrative errors”, which appeared to involve paperwork being lodged by activists with different ideas about strategy from the party executive. Three of the most noteworthy critics of the arrangement have been Julian Assange’s Senate running mate in Victoria, academic and ethicist Leslie Cannold, who resigned complaining that the party’s democratic processes had been bypassed (albeit that this happened too late to affect her inclusion on the ballot paper); Julian Assange’s mother, Christine Assange, who said that if she lived in Western Australian she would vote for Scott Ludlam of the Greens, who has been the strongest parliamentary supporters of her son’s cause; and Julian Assange himself, who apologised for having “over-delegated” such matters to persons evidently less capable than himself. For all that, the preference arrangements have conferred tactical advantage on the party in some cases, such as in Western Australia where it will be fed preferences from Family First, the Katter and Palmer parties, and a lengthy list of smaller concerns.

• Four parties in Victoria remarkably failed to lodge preference tickets, which among other things offered a potent insight into the closeness of the relationship between them. This was further delved into by Andrew Crook at Crikey, who noted the same personages at work behind the Liberal Democratic Party, Stop the Greens, the Smokers Rights Party and the Republican Party. A source quoted by Christian Kerr of The Australian put the non-lodgement of the tickets down to matters having been “thrown into chaos as it became clear Labor would do a deal with the Greens”. This came as bad news to the Sex Party, which had dealt its way into a national arrangement with the parties concerned that also involved One Nation. To those angered to discover that the party had done Pauline Hanson a good turn in her bid for a New South Wales seat, the party weakly responded that “you have to put these lunatic parties somewhere”, while failing to acknowledge that in Hanson’s case “somewhere” was number 10 out of 110, ahead of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.

• The complex of preference harvesters and opportunists willing to make deals with them has gifted Pauline Hanson with what occasional psephologist Polly Morgan describes as “an incredibly favourable preference flow”. However, Hanson faces the stumbling block that the Coalition have her placed last, so unlike other parties to the arrangement she does not stand to benefit from the surplus after the election of their third Senator, which in the context of the current election could be substantial. Indeed, Hanson’s candidacy may end up doing the left a good turn, as other right-wing candidates with the potential to be elected with help from Coalition preferences could instead get excluded at an earlier stage of the count by virtue of their failure to overtake Hanson. Should Hanson not poll quite so well as that, there are a range of potential scenarios for a seat to go to a micro-party. The most likely contender could be the Liberal Democrats, who have had a lucky break in being drawn as “Group A” on the enormous Senate ballot paper. Experience suggests this will substantially boost the number of votes they get from those confusing them with the Liberal Party, the Coalition ticket being a lot harder to locate (“Group Y” out of a listing the continues all the way out to “Group AR”).

• Labor has made the highly unusual decision to place the Liberals ahead of Andrew Wilkie in Denison. It presumably did so in the expectation that its preferences would not be distributed, the weakness of the Liberals in the electorate meaning the final count will most likely be between Wilkie and the Labor candidate, Jane Austin. However, the weekend’s ReachTEL poll of 563 respondents cast at least some doubt on this, showing the Liberal candidate leading Austin 23.1% to 18.0%. Wilkie’s position nonetheless appears strong enough to ensure his re-election regardless of how preferences are directed.

• Labor has entered a preference arrangement with Katter’s Australian Party in Queensland in which the latter will receive the former’s preferences for the Senate ahead of the Greens, in exchange for which the latter will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Hinkler, Herbert, Flynn, Capricornia, Forde and Petrie. This could well entail the high price of having KAP Senate candidate James Blundell elected ahead of the Greens, a prospect that would be pleasing to an incoming Abbott government. As Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports, it has also caused some not unpredictable dissent in the KAP.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Preferential treatment”

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  1. [Tim Colebatch also has a crack but he reckons that the public will take no notice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-to-hit-business-with-hikes-20130828-2sqxy.html%5D

    Colebatch is the only one who points out the increased taxes on businesses.

    The decision to hit business – mostly small business – with $4.6 billion of tax hikes was politically shrewd. Not one business lobby came forward on Wednesday to criticise the Coalition’s new taxes on its members. They would have screamed had Labor done the same.

    Small businesses lose the instant asset write-off, which will cost them an extra $2.9 billion.

    Small businesses lose the loss carry-back scheme that allowed businesses to claim losses against previous tax paid, which will cost them an extra $900 million.

    Both Hockey and the ABC present them as cost savings (to the government).

    Not great big new taxes but costs savings to the government.

    Same with the 1.5% new tax on banks that will increase interest rates and supermarkets that will increase prices and inflation.

    Not a tax but a levy or even a cost saving to the government as it funds the cost of maternity leave for rich mums.

  2. [Colebatch is the only one who points out the increased taxes on businesses.]

    The silence by big business is very telling to the credibility of big business. If labor were imposing an additional tax on big business they would be screaming. Their hypocrisy is breathtaking.

    Big business is supposed to be more efficient than government, I’ve worked in both and it is the other way around.

  3. [Two year delay in phasing of superannuation increase from 9 to 12 per cent]

    This will end up being a delay as long as the libs are in power.

    They opposed and voted against super when HawKeating introduced it.

    They stopped the planned increase from 9% to 15% when Howard was in government citing it as unaffordable during the largest and most sustainable economic boom in Australia’s history.

    The libs absolutely loath super for the workers, they do not want workers to have control over their own retirement.

    abbott, howard and costello cringe everytime at the wealth fund of over $1.2 trillion dollars created by labor when compared with the piggy bank future fund of $70 billion established by the libs by selling off government assets.

  4. [The silence by big business is very telling to the credibility of big business. If labor were imposing an additional tax on big business they would be screaming.]

    It is not just big business, there is an extra $3.8 billion in taxes on small business alone that the libs have disclosed so far.

    libs are supposed to be friendly to small business but in reality hit them harder than labor does as the figures show.

  5. [Prime ministerial aspirant Clive Palmer abruptly ended a phone interview with ABC’s Jon Faine after being questioned about past allegations of violence against women involving two Palmer United Party candidates.

    Faine said that he believed that the questions were relevant because they went to the candidates’ characters.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/get-stuffed-clive-palmer-hangs-up-on-abc-radio-host-20130828-2sp8d.html#ixzz2dJ1vItu2

    Has faine every asked any coalition member questions that go to abbotts character on buttock stroking, wall punching, no doesn’t mean no.

    or does he only reserve his character questions for non-coalition members.

  8. [Good question. I have not listened to Jon Faine for ages, so I would not know one way or another]

    He hasn’t Vic.

    If he had news, jones hadley and the rest of the RWDBs would have been all over him as they were over Trioli.

  11. Morning all. Thanks BK for the link to Latham. As usual these days his observations are on the mark.

    [If there is an emergency, the net impact of the Coalition’s policy announcements has been to make it worse. A consensus has emerged among private-sector economists that an Abbott government will add substantially to debt and deficit. The exact figures have been obscured by the Coalition’s fiscal secrecy and the type of rubbery numbers released on Wednesday by shadow treasurer Joe Hockey. On average, economists are predicting a deterioration in the budget position of $25 billion over four years.]

    …
    [Politically, Labor has misread Abbott. It has tried to portray him as a cost-cutting fiend when, in truth, his greatest sin is profligacy.]
    …
    [Thus Abbott’s first instincts are populist, highly susceptible to electoral and interest group pressure for more spending.]

    Absolutely spot on!

    It was sick-making to hear Mark Simpkin report without question or alternative view point (as has become the custom with the media in its ‘he said, she said’ obsession with the notion of balance) Hockey’s statement that wtte the books had been balanced and the savings found. Uhlmann did a bit better, at least delving into the savings identified. But on the whole: FAIL from OM.

    Meanwhile the ABC24 at least has picked up on Abbott’s Medicare Local pledge from last night, replaying comments from him from last week and then from last night, and the whole contradictoryness of it all.

  13. hockey is either doubling counting or more jobs cuts are planned.

    [Among the savings the Coalition has embraced, however, are an increase in tobacco excise raising $5.8 billion over four years, a new banking levy raising $700 million, more tax collection on unpaid superannuation to bring $800 million, and accessing more inactive super accounts to raise $600 million. An increase in visa charges will bring $500 million and a temporary increase in the public service efficiency dividend to 2.5 per cent will provide another $1.8 billion.]

    The $1.8 billion efficiency dividend is a cut to the public service and is either a double count or planned further cut.

    The libs are already planning to cut 12,000 jobs based on a $5 billion cut, cut another $1.8 billion and there goes another 5,000 jobs.

    the libs plan to cut

  15. [ Peter J. Nicol
    Posted Thursday, August 29, 2013 at 9:11 am | Permalink
    Anyone see Antony’s rant on ABC24 this morning? Quite extraordinary…
    ]

    what did he say? he seemed to be losing it a bit on ABC radio yesterday, saying the Australian voting system was terrible or wtte

  17. Glad to see channel 7 trumpetting their unscientific forum scores (Lib-bot infested) compared to the screened samples.

    Nevermind, as with the debate, that the other three samples found the opposite

    If your boy cant win fair and square, just rig it.

  19. [small business will lose its instant asset write-off, the loss carry-back provisions and a planned phase-down of the interest withholding tax, ripping a combined $4.2 billion from the sector over four years.]

    Small business will pay an extra $4.2 billion in tax, the libs present them as cost saving measures and only Colebatch rightly points out that they are increased taxes on small businesses.

  21. I dont know why the fuss about Medicare Locals. Abbott has said himself you can’t trust anything he says.

    Labor’s only hope is to go full throttle on his character and unfitness for the job.

    The Riley video FFS

  22. Antony Green is spot on IMO.

    There is a ridiculous number of candidates in this election, and some of the preference deals (as William highlights above) are nothing short of bizarre.

    Go Antony! Much rather hear from him on the public broadcaster about the election and polling than Dennis Shanahan or some clown from the IPA.

  23. PJN @ 66

    Thanks for the link to the Antony Green link. If only our politicians showed as much passion during this campaign as the ABC election analyst!

  24. Many business owners, pensioners and low paid workers will happily, at the ballot be turkeys voting for Christmas as they vote for Abbott.

  25. According to hockey widening the scope of the GST is not increasing the GST as they have said they will not do.

    the libs have promised to abolish the $1,000 threshold on imported goods so GST will apply on all goods purchased from overseas.

    This is not increasing the GST as it remains at the same level of 10%, same as widening the GST range to packaged foods is not an increase. Fresh food will remain exempt to keep the nats happy.

  26. The liberals have successfully muddied the water on costs, I dont think anything further to be gained there.

    What’s left
    1. Abbott’s character
    2. PPL (but probably too late to make an impact)
    3. Gay marriage- a party vote rather than a conscience vote- I think Rudd has alot to gain and little to lose from this.

  27. [I dont know why the fuss about Medicare Locals.]

    They are important vehicles for primary health care in rural/regional and many outer metro areas.

  28. castle, interesting that a widening of scope of the GST is not increasing it- Hockeynomics again. It makes sense as a way to make their numbers add up. the problem is that they are being very obtuse about it which makes it hard for Labor to run a scare campaign, as opposed to Hewson’s plans

  29. confessions, I mean the fuss about Abbott saying something different to himself and Pyne. He says anything to the audience he is speaking to that they want to hear.

    And he has told us you cant trust what he says.

    I think the initiative itself is very good

  30. The same 1984 bullshit speak applies to Work Choices.

    libs have said that they will respect the decision of the Fair Work Commission.

    Appoint “friendly” commissioners to Fair Work, business brings a test case on penalty rates, bye bye penalty rates.

    It was not a government decision it was a decision of the independent umpire.

    Work Choices III via the back door.

  31. Abbott is slashing everything to do with renewable energy and climate change.

    He is proving that he really believes “Climate change is crap”.

  32. [He says anything to the audience he is speaking to that they want to hear.]

    True, hence Latham’s correct observation that Labor have missed the mark with its attacks on him.

  33. The election defeat we have to have is only 9 days away now.

    Once rid of Rudd, let’s just hope there’s enough wind left in Labors sails to take the fight up to Abbott & Co.

  34. Castle
    Re Tim C article on small business being slugged just tweeted that to a supposed small business owner LNP troll who has been chasing me on Twitter Wonder if I will hear back from him???

  35. [The most likely contender could be the Liberal Democrats, who have had a lucky break in being drawn as “Group A” on the enormous Senate ballot paper. Experience suggests this will substantially boost the number of votes they get from those confusing them with the Liberal Party, ]

    Then maybe they should be forced to change their name. Since “Democrats” almost goes without saying for a party in a democracy, it’s like starting a new company Cadbury Chocolate to compete with Cadbury.

  36. Abbott has stated that he will have the Productivity Commission conduct a review of the Fair Work Act and that he will implement their recommendations.

    Sounds to me like he already has the recommendations written and the PC will base their findings around his already written recommendations.

    It will another deception where Abbott will claim that it was his plan to change the Fair Work Act and blame the Productivity Commission

  37. Rose our. It’s why Albo will be Labor leader in opposition. He will make PM Abbott’s life hell. I hear many in the Labor right have warmed to the idea!

  38. An election defeat is still a defeat… and what do progressive parties do to each other after a defeat? Yep, we tear ourselves apart.

    Even if we can’t win, we need to keep fighting for it … if we give up, then the undecideds and soft-voters (of which there are many) will move hard to Abbott and this goes from being a possible one-term task, to two or even three.

    There’s a difference between being realistic and being a Debbie-downer.

  39. I think the first challenge will be to choose a leader who is immediately seen as a credible alternative PM. The ALP need a long term leader now. The tories stuck with Abbott for four years with glamour boy in the wings the whole time. The ALP have to be prepared to do the same.

  41. [ Obama “Concludes” That Assad Carried Out Chemical Attack

    One week after the fact, without the UN inspectors having completed their job, and without any actual evidence presented to the general public…

    BREAKING: Obama: US has ‘concluded’ that Syrian government carried out chemical weapons attack.

    — The Associated Press (@AP) August 28, 2013

    And also this:

    OBAMA SAYS U.S. CONCLUDED SYRIAN GOVT WAGED CHEMICAL ATTACK

    OBAMA SAYS U.S. CONCLUDES SYRIAN OPPOSITION LACKS CHEMICAL ARMS

    OBAMA SAYS HE’S RECEIVED OPTIONS FROM PENTAGON ON SYRIA

    OBAMA CITES NEED FOR `PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL’ TO SYRIA’S ASSAD

    OBAMA SAYS DIRECT MILITARY INVOLVEMENT WON’T HELP END CIVIL WAR

    OBAMA SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW WITH PBS

    It is unclear if he was using a teleprompter at the time. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-28/obama-concludes-assad-carried-out-chemical-attack

  42. Just heard (again) that wonderful soothing ad by Tony Abbott – you know, the guy with a heart of gold.

    Lower taxes
    Less debt
    Higher wages
    Christmas every day of the year.

    It sounds like we’re in for an absolute paradise. I’m voting for Tone.

  43. [An election defeat is still a defeat… and what do progressive parties do to each other after a defeat? Yep, we tear ourselves apart.]

    To be honest I think that’s more true of the coalition than Labor.

    Labor is worse: it tears itself apart in government!

  44. Powers of the Australian
    Building and Construction Commission

    They attack the basic fundamentals of justice. They are a gestapo like organisation that Abbott wants to use to attack freedoms

    These powers enable the ABC Commissioner and any delegates to compel a person to provide him or her with information or documents or to attend to give evidence. They may be applied to override basic common law rights, such as
    the right to silence and the privilege against self-incrimination.

    A fundamental aspect of the rule of law is that legislation conferring a power on the executive or one of its agencies which may be used to breach individual rights and liberties should not be granted ‘at large’.

  45. outsider

    I think Albanese is the only one who can be relied upon to fight tories from sun up to sun down…and probably all night long.
    He’s the last link in some ways to Labor’s glory years..in temperament and character ..

  48. [Re Tim C article on small business being slugged just tweeted that to a supposed small business owner LNP troll who has been chasing me on Twitter Wonder if I will hear back from him???]

    be interesting to see what his reply is mari.

  49. [Is it just ME, or were all the Rooty Hill questions about ME ME ME and What’s In It For ME from the People’s Republic of ME?

    Perhaps my memory is faulty…I dimly recall a hazy golden age when Australian voters gave a shit about things other than themselves. I might’ve been dreaming it.]

    Lefties Love ME ME ME ME, It’s your common trait.

    PPL… ME ME ME ME! Why don’t I get $75,000 even though I don’t pay taxes?!?

    Illegal Boats… ME ME ME ME! Why don’t we just let all the illegals in and get someone else to pay for them for ME ME ME!

    Welfare… ME ME ME I want a bigger Dole Cheque… it’s unfair I don’t get enough to buy all the luxuries I want while tax-paying Australians go to work every day propping up our welfare system with their hard earneds!

    Schools… ME ME ME! Why don’t public school kids get more taxpayer tit money without paying 1 red cent, but private school kids whose education is mainly paid entirely by the parents continue to get a fraction of the cost paid by government!!

    Health…. ME ME ME!! I want FREE Health Care… paid ENTIRELY by someone else! It’s only fair! And if you try to pay for your own health care you should be punished! ME ME ME!

    ME ME ME is Leftie Territory.. always has been, always will be. You guys are the ultimate socialists.

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