ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

This morning brings a ReachTEL national automated poll consistent with the result of the last such poll a fortnight ago, and also with the overall polling trend.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 3500 respondents, conducted on Monday and released today by Channel Seven, has the Coalition leading 53-47, unchanged from the last national ReachTEL poll on August 10. The only primary vote provided at this stage is that Labor is down 1.2% to 35.7%. The poll also finds the Coalition paid parental leave scheme supported by 30% and opposed by 48.4%, Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4, 41.9% believing Labor made the right choice in replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd against 40.5% for the wrong choice and 74% expecting the Coalition to win the election.

We also had yesterday a Galaxy automated phone poll of 575 respondents from the northern Adelaide fringe seat of Wakefield courtesy of The Advertiser, which is presumably treating us progressively to polling from South Australia’s most marginal seats. This one showed Labor’s Nick Champion leading his Liberal challenger Tom Zorich 55-45, suggesting a swing to the Liberals of between 5% and 6%. The primary votes were 45% for Champion and 35% for Zorich.

Further raw material for tea-leaf reading from The Australian, whose lead story yesterday essentially consisted of an account of where its reporters believe things to stand. This was consolidated into a “call of the card” laying out which seats might change hands and with what likelihood. Those of you who might wish to write this off as a contrivance of Murdoch propagandists can feel free, but since the aggregate findings sit pretty well with BludgerTrack, I’m inclined to regard it as welcome intelligence as to how the campaigns are seeing things.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has since been updated with big-sample state breakdowns provided to me by ReachTEL, so some of the numbers cited below have changed quite a bit.

Where BludgerTrack presently counts eight losses for Labor in New South Wales, The Australian’s list sees six as likely if you include Dobell (which I do) plus one strong chance and two possibles. Aside from Dobell (margin 5.2%), the seats listed as likely losses are Labor’s five most marginal: Greenway (0.9%), Robertson (1.1%), Lindsay (1.2%), Banks (1.5%) and Reid (2.7%). However, the picture of a uniform swing breaks down with Werriwa (6.8%) being rated a strong chance and Kingsford Smith (5.2%) and McMahon (7.9%) as possibilities. So while Labor has fires to fight all over Sydney and the central coast, it appears set to be spared in its seats further afield, namely Eden-Monaro (4.2%), Page (4.2%) and Richmond (7.0%). There also appears to be inconsistency in Sydney to the extent that Parramatta (4.4%) and Barton (6.9%) are not listed.

In Victoria, The Australian’s assessment is well in line with BludgerTrack’s call of three Liberal gains in having two listed as likely (Corangamite on 0.3% and La Trobe on 1.7%) and another as a strong chance (Deakin on 0.9%). Labor’s next most marginal seat in Victoria, Chisholm (5.8%), is evidently considered a bridge too far. The only seat featured from South Australia is the “strong chance” of Hindmarsh (6.1%), but BludgerTrack is not quite seeing it that way, the swing currently recorded there being lower than what most observers expect.

Redressing all that slightly is a list of seats which Labor might gain, albeit that it is very short. Brisbane (1.2%) is rated a “likely Coalition loss”, and despite what published polls might say Peter Beattie is rated a strong chance in Forde (1.7%). The Western Australian seat of Hasluck (0.6%) is also listed as a possible Labor gain. However, a report elsewhere in the paper cites Labor MPs saying hopes there have faded, while Andrew Probyn of The West Australian today relates that Liberal polling has them leading 53-47 from 46% of the primary vote against 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens.

Queensland and Western Australia also have seats listed on the other side of the ledger, especially Queensland. With Queensland we find the one serious breakdown with a BludgerTrack projection, one which in this case I have long been noting as problematic. The Australian lists Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.6%) and Capricornia (3.7%) as likely Labor losses, to which are added the strong chance of Blair (4.3%) and the possibility of Kevin Rudd indeed losing Griffith (8.5%). However, the latter seems a bit hard to credit if neighbouring Brisbane is to be deemed a likely Labor gain, and Lilley (3.2%), Rankin (5.4%) and Oxley (5.8%) left off the chopping block.

In Western Australia, Labor’s possible gain of Hasluck is balanced by a possible loss of Brand (3.4%). This tends to confirm my suspicion that BludgerTrack, on which Labor’s numbers in WA have soured considerably recently, is erring slightly on the harsh side with respect to Labor. Bass and Braddon are listed as likely Labor losses for Tasmania, with Lyons (12.3%) only rated a possibility and Franklin (10.8%) not in play. Powered by what may have been an exaggerated result from ReachTEL on the weekend, BludgerTrack is calling it three losses for Labor in Tasmania with only one seat spared. The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (3.8%) is rated by The Australian as a possible loss, while BludgerTrack has it as likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. I’m not surprised that no one at Rooty Hill asked a question about asylum seekers. Most voters rate it very low on the hierarchy of issues

  2. poroti@1081. I wasn’t saying that the Singapore super scheme is particularly good. I just think it’s great that someone asked about a new policy idea.

    That said, young people in Sydney are genuinely struggling to buy a first home. Maybe letting them borrow some of their super for a deposit and then gradually pay it back at lower interest rates isn’t such a terrible idea.

  3. New2This

    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    Last time Rudd got it… Four people died…
    —————————————————–

    yep shonky rotten businesses failed to comply to OHS laws and the Building Code

  4. Hey what a coincidence. During the prematch suckholing by Jessica she used the same Abbott line as Abbott finished with. “It’s not about me it’s …”

  5. Ben Packham ‏@bennpackham 1m

    Abbott commitment not to close Medicare locals didn’t match with Dutton position yesterday #rooty

  6. [Looks like the Ch7 worm gives the debate to Abbott. ]

    Given the LNP have emailed everyone of their supporters to download it, no wonder. Low income earners don’t have iPads.

  7. “@David_Cameron: 1/3 We’ve always said we want the UN Security Council to live up to its responsibilities on Syria. Today they have an opportunity to do that”

    “@David_Cameron: 2/2 Britain has drafted a resolution condemning the chemical weapons attack by Assad & authorising necessary measures to protect civilians.”

    “@David_Cameron: 3/3 The resolution will be put forward at a meeting of the five permanent members of the Security Council later today in New York.”

  8. [Expand
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn 20s
    On #skynews
    Jessica Wright ~ Rudd
    Simon Benson ~ Rudd
    Kieren Gilbert ~ Rudd
    David Speers ~ draw
    ]

  9. meher baba

    Actually their super scheme is pretty good. It is just after many years of visiting the place and seeing what happens ,or doesn’t happen, to districts that have the temerity to not vote for PAP makes me very jaundiced about the place.

  10. guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

    “@Billablog: Tony has a mortgage? WHY IS ABBOTT RUNNING A DEFICIT??? #debate”
    ——————————————————

    When the Liberals lost the 2007 election Abbott took a $700,000 mortgage on his home because he couldn’t manage his household on the salary he would get as a MP in
    opposition

  11. Interesting if Ch 7 gives it to Abbott again same as last time when LNP were told to download and vote accordingly? More interested in what ch 9,10 and 2 say

  12. “@ABCNews24: Michael Gleeson from Hawker Britton: “It’s the best performance that Kevin Rudd has put in in any of the three debates.” #ausvotes”

  13. “@russellmahoney: So 7 gives it to Tony and 9 and 10 give it to Kevin, all clear wins. Again. Says interesting things about their demographics. #rooty”

  14. Mari
    [Mick I am a very nice person
    Especially when I am recovering from the Dubai wog and quite mellow :smile:]
    I suspect that most posters here are very nice once they change back to their real Clark Kent persona; except for that annoying “William” fellow whoever he is with his broken record … “New Thread” “New Thread”. Does that guy ever shut up?

  15. 1.5m people watched the first debate. 500K watched the second one. And almost all of those were rusted on voters cheering their team on.

    The debate is pretty irrelevant.

  16. ABC going with the grab I predicted – the one where Rudd suggests Abbott votes Labor. It’s a great TV grab and it will be used a lot tomorrow. Abbott was flat-footed, speechless and dumb.

  17. Well just listened to ABC News lead with TA and his health care non closures and Kevin R chipping in and saying now what Dutton saying and Abbott spluttering Better enjoy it as won’t last???

  18. That Morgan result tells you that people are actually starting to engage with Rudd.

    Libs have already run their Launch which I am buggered to remember anything of significance occurring apart from Abbott’s daughters coming in off the beach to lecture us all on how great their dad is. I liked that they had very, very big ideas on display.

    As for Labor, the issue of foreign investment and stopping Australian jobs going off shore with our freshly re-minted PM announcing various measures is going to resonate with the people Labor need to connect with to win this election.

    Libs should start reinforcing their underwear right now.

  19. As an independent voter I was lucky enough to be screened to be in the audience tonight. I was undecided before I went in but after carefully listening to both of the Leaders, the calm considered answers of one leader convinced me that he, Mr Tony Abbott was the right man to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.

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