A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 3500 respondents, conducted on Monday and released today by Channel Seven, has the Coalition leading 53-47, unchanged from the last national ReachTEL poll on August 10. The only primary vote provided at this stage is that Labor is down 1.2% to 35.7%. The poll also finds the Coalition paid parental leave scheme supported by 30% and opposed by 48.4%, Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4, 41.9% believing Labor made the right choice in replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd against 40.5% for the wrong choice and 74% expecting the Coalition to win the election.
We also had yesterday a Galaxy automated phone poll of 575 respondents from the northern Adelaide fringe seat of Wakefield courtesy of The Advertiser, which is presumably treating us progressively to polling from South Australia’s most marginal seats. This one showed Labor’s Nick Champion leading his Liberal challenger Tom Zorich 55-45, suggesting a swing to the Liberals of between 5% and 6%. The primary votes were 45% for Champion and 35% for Zorich.
Further raw material for tea-leaf reading from The Australian, whose lead story yesterday essentially consisted of an account of where its reporters believe things to stand. This was consolidated into a “call of the card” laying out which seats might change hands and with what likelihood. Those of you who might wish to write this off as a contrivance of Murdoch propagandists can feel free, but since the aggregate findings sit pretty well with BludgerTrack, I’m inclined to regard it as welcome intelligence as to how the campaigns are seeing things.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack has since been updated with big-sample state breakdowns provided to me by ReachTEL, so some of the numbers cited below have changed quite a bit.
Where BludgerTrack presently counts eight losses for Labor in New South Wales, The Australian’s list sees six as likely if you include Dobell (which I do) plus one strong chance and two possibles. Aside from Dobell (margin 5.2%), the seats listed as likely losses are Labor’s five most marginal: Greenway (0.9%), Robertson (1.1%), Lindsay (1.2%), Banks (1.5%) and Reid (2.7%). However, the picture of a uniform swing breaks down with Werriwa (6.8%) being rated a strong chance and Kingsford Smith (5.2%) and McMahon (7.9%) as possibilities. So while Labor has fires to fight all over Sydney and the central coast, it appears set to be spared in its seats further afield, namely Eden-Monaro (4.2%), Page (4.2%) and Richmond (7.0%). There also appears to be inconsistency in Sydney to the extent that Parramatta (4.4%) and Barton (6.9%) are not listed.
In Victoria, The Australian’s assessment is well in line with BludgerTrack’s call of three Liberal gains in having two listed as likely (Corangamite on 0.3% and La Trobe on 1.7%) and another as a strong chance (Deakin on 0.9%). Labor’s next most marginal seat in Victoria, Chisholm (5.8%), is evidently considered a bridge too far. The only seat featured from South Australia is the “strong chance” of Hindmarsh (6.1%), but BludgerTrack is not quite seeing it that way, the swing currently recorded there being lower than what most observers expect.
Redressing all that slightly is a list of seats which Labor might gain, albeit that it is very short. Brisbane (1.2%) is rated a “likely Coalition loss”, and despite what published polls might say Peter Beattie is rated a strong chance in Forde (1.7%). The Western Australian seat of Hasluck (0.6%) is also listed as a possible Labor gain. However, a report elsewhere in the paper cites Labor MPs saying hopes there have faded, while Andrew Probyn of The West Australian today relates that Liberal polling has them leading 53-47 from 46% of the primary vote against 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens.
Queensland and Western Australia also have seats listed on the other side of the ledger, especially Queensland. With Queensland we find the one serious breakdown with a BludgerTrack projection, one which in this case I have long been noting as problematic. The Australian lists Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.6%) and Capricornia (3.7%) as likely Labor losses, to which are added the strong chance of Blair (4.3%) and the possibility of Kevin Rudd indeed losing Griffith (8.5%). However, the latter seems a bit hard to credit if neighbouring Brisbane is to be deemed a likely Labor gain, and Lilley (3.2%), Rankin (5.4%) and Oxley (5.8%) left off the chopping block.
In Western Australia, Labor’s possible gain of Hasluck is balanced by a possible loss of Brand (3.4%). This tends to confirm my suspicion that BludgerTrack, on which Labor’s numbers in WA have soured considerably recently, is erring slightly on the harsh side with respect to Labor. Bass and Braddon are listed as likely Labor losses for Tasmania, with Lyons (12.3%) only rated a possibility and Franklin (10.8%) not in play. Powered by what may have been an exaggerated result from ReachTEL on the weekend, BludgerTrack is calling it three losses for Labor in Tasmania with only one seat spared. The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (3.8%) is rated by The Australian as a possible loss, while BludgerTrack has it as likely.
Alias 1038 – IMHO Abbott shows the sign of a man who has received a few too many blows to the head and who indulged in drinking excessivley – he can think coarsely to deliver blunt political blows but the finer points of mental performance seem beyond him.
Lots of country questions in the big city. Who said city folk don’t get it.
Oh god, now Kevin is running to the “wicked supermarket chains” nonsense. Intellectually bankrupt, but probably great politics.
rummel
o well your cloth is truly cut and coloured
rummel
[I’m calling this one for Abbott.]
I agree with you, and I didn’t watch it!
You can get your super to pay off your house. You just have to wait till preservation age.
Wow!! A real policy question!! Why can’t we have a Singapore-style super scheme where people can use some of their savings for housing. A highly relevant question for people in western Sydney!!
yes spend super on first home. pensions for all
1044
geoffrey
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:27 pm | PERMALINK
i call it – rudd 8 abbott 4/5 at best
I’d call you a d$ckhead…
THEY’RE TAKING OUR LAND. OUR LAND. THEY’RE COMING IN AND THEY’RE BUYING IT BUT WE CAN’T BUY THEIRS…
Erm… Yes we can actually. Foreign companies can even buy land in China (setup a Chinese subsidiary).
By the way, who let so many small business owners in?
Rudd has won this debate by a country mile – especially when you factor in that he’s copped far harder questions than Abbott.
Neophyte: Agreed. You really wouldn’t Abbott to be faced with a complex decision, requiring nuanced thinking. I mean honestly, he’s just not up to the job. Clearly.
politicians cash in early!!!!!!!!!
Last time Rudd got it… Four people died…
Is this women moderating the debate?
When has the govt raided superannuation funds as Abbott claimed?
New2This
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:35 pm | PERMALINK
Last time Rudd got it… Four people died…
————– this is 2013. abbott ruins now
Did Abbott lose the toss again?
😆
New2This,
last time Howard got it, 40 soldiers died in Afghanistan.
[ alias
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
Rudd has won this debate by a country mile – especially when you factor in that he’s copped far harder questions than Abbott.
Neophyte: Agreed. You really wouldn’t Abbott to be faced with a complex decision, requiring nuanced thinking. I mean honestly, he’s just not up to the job. Clearly.]
He’s not, but sadly, the last six years have proven that Labor aren’t. More to the point, they deserve to be punted.
“@Billablog: Tony has a mortgage? WHY IS ABBOTT RUNNING A DEFICIT??? #debate”
[1054
geoffrey
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
o well your cloth is truly cut and coloured]
I suppose I changed cloth from the last debate where I called it for Kevin
Rummel I am amazed at you calling it for Abbott, would never have guessed :devil: that call was coming- at least Mick 77 who didn’t watch is consistent
[Who said city folk don’t get it.]
You have a bonking breakdown?
Did KR announce a change to foreign ownership laws?
Greensborough Growler
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:36 pm | PERMALINK
New2This,
last time Howard got it, 40 soldiers died in Afghanistan.
——— is that the toll from the war criminal that abbott idolises?
TLBD
😆
New2Facts
Read and weep.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/insulation-fire-risk-was-worse-before-rebate-20100303-pivv.html#ixzz2VpWS7jbh
Then shut up, idiot.
rummel
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:37 pm | PERMALINK
1054
geoffrey
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
o well your cloth is truly cut and coloured
I suppose I changed cloth from the last debate where I called it for Kevin
——– good luck on your judgment
[Did Abbott lose the toss again?]
He won, sent Kev into bat. 😆
brilliant answer from Rudd …. yes abbott will trigger recession. bookmakers 1.05 on that
meher baba
Singapore. What a dud model of society to follow.
“@russellmahoney: Abbott stumbes on surplus. Rudd stumbles on foreign investment (though probably a popular answer). No killer blows. Honourable draw. #rooty”
“@russellmahoney: But the 9 worm is going to give it to the PM I think. It seemed to quite like him. #rooty”
There has been no applause so far.
Abbott is so false he starts off with his scripted lines.
I really think it’s a draw, both took similar positions on super and foreign investment, both took to slogans when they ran out of answers.
I agree about Abbott, I believe alcohol may have damaged his thinking abilities.
rudd is very good speaker — more engaging than jules
mari
[at least Mick 77 who didn’t watch is consistent]
that’s the nicest thing you’ve ever said to me Mari
“@ABCnewsIntern: Good point, @Piping_Shrike: Western Sydney, no asylum seeker questions. #rooty #pplsforum”
Nobody cares about boats Abbott.
Missed the first 20 minutes. From what I saw, both leaders handled it well. I think everyone thought their guy did well. Good closing statement from Mr Rudd. Abbott now on boats and ergonomic chairs and lying about broadband. Switching over to Dr Who.
guytaur,
If the answer on foreign ownership gains traction, it will switch a lot of votes.
The Libs and their acolytes would be well advsed to stfu as it will hurt them more than Rudd by making it an issue.
NBN by 2016?
It won’t be the NBN, but a hollowed out version of it.
Interesting. Sky just showed Abbott bald spot
Seriously, though. LOL at the people calling this load of tripe one way or the other for either side. It’s a snoozefest full of talking points and rhetoric that we’ve heard 1000 times. Why we waste our time with three of these is beyond me.
Mick I am a very nice person
Especially when I am recovering from the Dubai wog and quite mellow 🙂
Looks like the Ch7 worm gives the debate to Abbott.
Rudd much more focussed tonight. Hope the narrowing of the messages gets reflected in ad campaigns.
carbon tax!! border protection, waste, economy, competent, west connect – yes rosemour great rhetoric my fellow
Of course PMKR wins because he gets QandA all to himself next Monday night.
[ruawake
Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
Nobody cares about boats Abbott.]
Do you really believe this? If it wasn’t a massive issue in the hearts and minds of the voterbase why would Labor have gone into what could be the most embarrassing policy reversal in Australian political history over the state of affairs with boats? The only thing more of a backdown would be if the ALP brought back Workchoices.