ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

This morning brings a ReachTEL national automated poll consistent with the result of the last such poll a fortnight ago, and also with the overall polling trend.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 3500 respondents, conducted on Monday and released today by Channel Seven, has the Coalition leading 53-47, unchanged from the last national ReachTEL poll on August 10. The only primary vote provided at this stage is that Labor is down 1.2% to 35.7%. The poll also finds the Coalition paid parental leave scheme supported by 30% and opposed by 48.4%, Tony Abbott leading Kevin Rudd on ReachTEL’s idiosyncratic preferred prime minister measure by 53.6-46.4, 41.9% believing Labor made the right choice in replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd against 40.5% for the wrong choice and 74% expecting the Coalition to win the election.

We also had yesterday a Galaxy automated phone poll of 575 respondents from the northern Adelaide fringe seat of Wakefield courtesy of The Advertiser, which is presumably treating us progressively to polling from South Australia’s most marginal seats. This one showed Labor’s Nick Champion leading his Liberal challenger Tom Zorich 55-45, suggesting a swing to the Liberals of between 5% and 6%. The primary votes were 45% for Champion and 35% for Zorich.

Further raw material for tea-leaf reading from The Australian, whose lead story yesterday essentially consisted of an account of where its reporters believe things to stand. This was consolidated into a “call of the card” laying out which seats might change hands and with what likelihood. Those of you who might wish to write this off as a contrivance of Murdoch propagandists can feel free, but since the aggregate findings sit pretty well with BludgerTrack, I’m inclined to regard it as welcome intelligence as to how the campaigns are seeing things.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has since been updated with big-sample state breakdowns provided to me by ReachTEL, so some of the numbers cited below have changed quite a bit.

Where BludgerTrack presently counts eight losses for Labor in New South Wales, The Australian’s list sees six as likely if you include Dobell (which I do) plus one strong chance and two possibles. Aside from Dobell (margin 5.2%), the seats listed as likely losses are Labor’s five most marginal: Greenway (0.9%), Robertson (1.1%), Lindsay (1.2%), Banks (1.5%) and Reid (2.7%). However, the picture of a uniform swing breaks down with Werriwa (6.8%) being rated a strong chance and Kingsford Smith (5.2%) and McMahon (7.9%) as possibilities. So while Labor has fires to fight all over Sydney and the central coast, it appears set to be spared in its seats further afield, namely Eden-Monaro (4.2%), Page (4.2%) and Richmond (7.0%). There also appears to be inconsistency in Sydney to the extent that Parramatta (4.4%) and Barton (6.9%) are not listed.

In Victoria, The Australian’s assessment is well in line with BludgerTrack’s call of three Liberal gains in having two listed as likely (Corangamite on 0.3% and La Trobe on 1.7%) and another as a strong chance (Deakin on 0.9%). Labor’s next most marginal seat in Victoria, Chisholm (5.8%), is evidently considered a bridge too far. The only seat featured from South Australia is the “strong chance” of Hindmarsh (6.1%), but BludgerTrack is not quite seeing it that way, the swing currently recorded there being lower than what most observers expect.

Redressing all that slightly is a list of seats which Labor might gain, albeit that it is very short. Brisbane (1.2%) is rated a “likely Coalition loss”, and despite what published polls might say Peter Beattie is rated a strong chance in Forde (1.7%). The Western Australian seat of Hasluck (0.6%) is also listed as a possible Labor gain. However, a report elsewhere in the paper cites Labor MPs saying hopes there have faded, while Andrew Probyn of The West Australian today relates that Liberal polling has them leading 53-47 from 46% of the primary vote against 36% for Labor and 9% for the Greens.

Queensland and Western Australia also have seats listed on the other side of the ledger, especially Queensland. With Queensland we find the one serious breakdown with a BludgerTrack projection, one which in this case I have long been noting as problematic. The Australian lists Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.6%) and Capricornia (3.7%) as likely Labor losses, to which are added the strong chance of Blair (4.3%) and the possibility of Kevin Rudd indeed losing Griffith (8.5%). However, the latter seems a bit hard to credit if neighbouring Brisbane is to be deemed a likely Labor gain, and Lilley (3.2%), Rankin (5.4%) and Oxley (5.8%) left off the chopping block.

In Western Australia, Labor’s possible gain of Hasluck is balanced by a possible loss of Brand (3.4%). This tends to confirm my suspicion that BludgerTrack, on which Labor’s numbers in WA have soured considerably recently, is erring slightly on the harsh side with respect to Labor. Bass and Braddon are listed as likely Labor losses for Tasmania, with Lyons (12.3%) only rated a possibility and Franklin (10.8%) not in play. Powered by what may have been an exaggerated result from ReachTEL on the weekend, BludgerTrack is calling it three losses for Labor in Tasmania with only one seat spared. The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari (3.8%) is rated by The Australian as a possible loss, while BludgerTrack has it as likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 24 of 29
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  2. Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline 22m
    #reactor says Rudd clear winner 56%, abbott 23%, draw 12% undecided 9% #debate

    there u go the truth of if

    may be mr bowe has not put this for u

  8. I want Rudd to win the election.

    I do not want this :mrgreen: for PM?

    How did I score the debate?

    Rudd won it but only narrowly.

    There was no knockout, Rudd needed a knockout.

    Maybe if the 3200 big businesses that pay the levy to fund the PPL that will be passed on to consumers, as opposed to 500 that pay the carbon price, could have been termed as a “great big new tax” it could have produced the knockout?

    “Great Big New Tax” that will put cost of living pressures and pressure on interest rates, opportunity missed!

    😐

  11. I think My Say I have been longer on Twitter than you as you can probably see by followers etc and I enjoy both places Enjoying PB and also a long conversation with various tweeters at the moment

  15. Mick

    I’m beginning to buy in to MB’s betting conspiracies.

    I mean this in the nicest way possible. You’ve been spending too much time here.

    🙂

  17. @New2This/1163

    Really? 5.7% from August Australia, 7% UK, Unemployment risen to 6.4% in NZ

    Btw: Then how does sacking thousands of PS people before employing them again work?

  18. 839
    adrian
    [What a pity Rudd didn’t fix the ABC when he had the chance.]

    Yep. Arguably his biggest failure first time around was that he didn’t get media reform sorted. Though in fairness, getting the NBN done would have largely dealt with that, and getting two terms to do so was, initially at least, a reasonable bet.

  21. GG
    [That Morgan result tells you that people are actually starting to engage with Rudd.

    Libs have already run their Launch which I am buggered to remember anything of significance occurring apart from Abbott’s daughters coming in off the beach to lecture us all on how great their dad is. I liked that they had very, very big ideas on display.

    As for Labor, the issue of foreign investment and stopping Australian jobs going off shore with our freshly re-minted PM announcing various measures is going to resonate with the people Labor need to connect with to win this election.

    Libs should start reinforcing their underwear right now.]

    Couldnt have put it better myself.

    What GG said.

  22. [New2This

    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

    Pretty north shore lawyer on 180k is above the threshold… ]

    No threshold just a cap on max payout of $75,000. Your pretty north shore lawyer still gets $75000 of our money even if she is on 1 million.

    Don’t you even bother to read your own propaganda?

  24. now who is the nigger in the woodpile?

    [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 58s
    #pplsforum votes @OneHD Morgan Reactor Rudd 56% Abbott 23%; Nine Rudd 57% Abbott 43%; 7 Rudd: 33% Abbott 67% Sky audience Rudd 45 Abbott 38
    Expand]

  26. Centre 1158 — I waited for the knockout blow at that same precise moment then thought – but that would not be prime ministerial – it would be in the Abbott style of crude kicks to the guts and maybe this was not the right occasion. Rudd would have made a strategic decision NOT to go down that path.

  27. In summary:

    Nine News Australia @9NewsAUS 1m
    WORM RESULTS: Kevin Rudd wins 57% over Tony Abbott 43% #YouDecide9

    Roy Morgan @roymorganonline 20s
    #reactor says Rudd clear winner 56%, abbott 23%, draw 12% undecided 9% #debate

    Nine and Morgan have an actual methodology related to poll sampling principles. 7 lets any bozo download an app.

    Rudd won it.

    I also think voters are re-warming to the Ruddster – and we’ve had peak Abbott.

    10 days – how much closer can it get?

  28. New2This

    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

    Achmed Rudd admitted his responsibility…
    ————————————————

    That does not distract from the shonky businesses that failed to adhere to OHS laws and the Building Code. The Coroner found them guilty not Rudd.

    When will Howard take responsibility for sending Aussie soldiers to war on a lie and the resulting deaths and injuries?

    And if we extrapolate your view that it was the Governments fault then every single injury that happens on every Government funded project is the Governments fault. You prove your stupidity.

    What you are doing is using the tragic deaths of 4 young men as a political football. How low can you Liberals go? Not much lower than that!!

  30. [Maybe if the 3200 big businesses that pay the levy to fund the PPL that will be passed on to consumers, as opposed to 500 that pay the carbon price, could have been termed as a “great big new tax” it could have produced the knockout?]

    Agree, Centre. Hve been saying so for weeks.

    After ALL Abbott’s carry-on over 4 years – whats hios main policy – whats his centrepiece? A GREAT BIG NEW TAX!

    COME ON ALP SAY IT!

  33. lefty e,

    This weeks Essential was 38% Labor and 43% to the LNP on Primaries.

    As Bette Davis once said, “Fasten your seat belts. We’re in for a bumpy ride”.

  36. New 2 this said

    [Pretty north shore lawyer on 180k is above the threshold… Hardly a killer line…]

    there is no threshold – the pretty lawyer will get $75000 – you could earn 2 million and still get the $75000

  41. [Sprocket 1174 same as last time wasn’t it?]

    In the Brisbane forum the worm disliked Abbott, whereas for the Sydney forum, the worm liked him.

    But, as Ch7 explained, their worm was people who had downloaded the app to vote with it during the debate.

  46. [this is worth watching, just to see the shit eating grin from Tony Abbott at the end]

    the two priceless moment are part way through Abbott flicking his eyes looking away thinking why did I ask this question and then at the end the stunned mullet grin.

  47. On the economy

    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals
    3 x Triple A ratings that were never achieved by Howard/Liberals

  48. DN
    [I mean this in the nicest way possible. You’ve been spending too much time here.]
    My psychiatrist is telling me the same thing.

  50. Yeah a good effort from Rudd, clear win tonight.

    Abbott only has slogans.
    He’s hopeless but he didn’t totally fall over so for him that’s a good result.

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