Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 18
1 … 12 13 14 … 18

  1. Socrates:

    I’d like to think it would be very difficult for the AFL to slap wrists, but as others have said, and as has been reported in the news, it basically looks like lawyers at 50 paces.

    Nobody is going to come out of this with any credibility.

  2. and confession

    what else would u expect him them to say
    ==============================================

    it does not matter what he says.

    its what people think

  4. The sex appeal remark should increase the PPM gap in Rudd’s favour, if enough people hear it 😎

    Could be worth 0.3% of the vote as well 😯

  5. I do believe that, if AWADA are at all unhappy with the processes and the outcomes, they will step in. Should this happen, no amount of parochialism and fandoration will help anyone at all. And if the players want to litigate, AWADA would be more than happy to oblige. Deep pockets.

  7. I have just looked in a mirror and have come away with the uneasy feeling that I may not be up to Abbott’s standards for Liberal candidates.

    So, what about Mirabella? How would Abbott rate her?

  9. Maybe this period with the LNP in front will work for Labor over the long run.

    Abbott appears to have been let out of the gimp suit, and ‘real Tony’ seems to have a few issues.

  10. [Laura Marsh 17 not out off 160 balls’

    That is all very well. But does she have sex appeal?]

    I leave that sort of judgment for Centre.

  11. As for Abbott’s costings, I am sure that Colebatch will be combing the lines to find the allocation for the line:

    ‘Suppositories, wisdom for the storage of.’

    Senate estimates on that one should be a hoot.

  12. my say

    the costings!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    and the G S T !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    mofos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. Off Course Fees This Month Only Flexible Online Study Options.

    Australia’s elite special forces will help train Afghan counterparts next year but will not carry out raids against the Taliban – effectively bringing to an end Australian combat duties.

    Defence announced yesterday that Australia had struck an agreement with international coalition partners for special forces and other army personnel to train and advise the Afghans during 2014.

    It is the first time the government has confirmed that the SAS and 2nd Commando regiments would no longer perform combat roles next year – and further cements the winding down of Australia’s involvement. It means Australia’s combat duties will end for the time being when the base at Tarin Kowt in Oruzgan province closes by December, bringing home more than 1000 troops.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/defence-announces-end-to-combat-duties-in-afghanistan-20130812-2rsiv.html#ixzz2bqUYFXJY

  14. [ So, what about Mirabella? How would Abbott rate her? ]

    I think with Sophie it is a case of “actions speak louder than words”

  15. Continuing my ‘only watch the headlines’ experiment.

    ‘Sex appeal’ got a big run from Oakes as yet another gaffe. Riminton said it was a stumble, but a bigger ‘drag on Abbott’s campaign’ would be his delay of costings.

  16. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-kevin-rudd-right-that-gst-could-be-changed-without-the-states-20130813-2rthd.html
    it stacks up

    Kevin Rudd is right about the law. A new government could change the GST as it liked. It would probably want political cover and so the agreement of the states has some political force, but if just some of the states wanted it and some held out, a newly elected Commonwealth government could go ahead anyway.

    Finding

    A PolitiFact rating of “true” applies where a statement is accurate and there is nothing significant missing.

    PolitiFact rates Kevin Rudd’s claim about the GST “true”.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-kevin-rudd-right-that-gst-could-be-changed-without-the-states-20130813-2rthd.html#ixzz2bqV7s3BW

  17. [Maybe this period with the LNP in front will work for Labor over the long run.]

    Not sure how this theory works as they have been in front for 99% of the last 3 years.

  18. Confessions 601

    Agreed. The AFL’s own doping code is here
    http://www.afl.com.au/portal/site/AFL/menuitem.8bb076f84ab50c51d9979dc2d970d0a0/?vgnextoid=95d335e97a978310VgnVCM100000976fb70aRCRD&vgnextchannel=aec9ddfd09158310VgnVCM100000976fb70aRCRD&vgnextfmt=default%3F
    [WARNING
    By this Code the AFL prohibits the classes of substances and methods which are prohibited under the World Anti-Doping Code Prohibited List
    Substances are prohibited if they fall into the prohibited classes identified in this Code. The substances described in each prohibited class are examples only. Substances which are not included as examples are prohibited if they fall within a prohibited class.
    It is the responsibility of each Player to ensure that he does not use or administer prohibited substances or prohibited methods, whether or not included as examples.

    Amended 1 January 2010]

    So under this statement, give what Jobe Watson has already said, how come no charge? Do you get one free pass for each Brownlow Medal?

  21. Centre
    Do they arrange the batting order according to sex appeal? If you don’t know yourself, we could always ask M77. He appears to understand these things better than the rest of humanity.

  22. Boerwar

    [We need to get M77 on the case to deconstruct what Abbott is actually trying to communicate about female Liberal candidates.]

    He was trying to say, Geez i’d love to get her preggers and walk away, just like the old days at Uni.

  23. CM

    ‘ So, what about Mirabella? How would Abbott rate her?

    Yeah, let’s not turn this into that kind of discussion. A line quickly approaches here.’

    If you are suggesting we do not lower ourselves to Abbott’s level, I heartily concur. I was just assisting M77 in his quest for the truth.

  25. I will say no more on the AFL thing. As for Abbott’s remarka, they are sexist, and typical, but wil cost him no/few votes in the demographic he is appealling too.

  27. Boerwar

    Why are you asking me that?

    I asked a question. Who did Abbott refer to that she had sex appeal?

    I answered a question. Yes, Laura Marsh has sex appeal 😯

    Do you think Laura Marsh has sex appeal? 😛

  28. Ms Babbage is not the first Liberal Party affiliate appointed to a board or corporation position by the state government.

    Former Liberal senator Warwick Parer was appointed as chair of the Stanwell Corporation, while

    former Northern Territory Country Liberal Party leader Shane Stone was named Energex chairman.

    Premier Campbell Newman’s close friend Mark Brodie, who also chaired the Brisbane City Council investment fund established by Mr Newman when he was lord mayor, was appointed as chair of the Gladstone Ports Corporation.

    Former Liberal MP and party president Michael Caltabiano served briefly as the director-general of the Transport Department before he was fired in February this year.

    Former Queensland Liberals leader Bob Quinn was appointed as chair of the Queensland Schools Planning Commission,

    while former federal treasurer Peter Costello headed the state’s commission of audit,

    and the son of former state treasurer Sir Lew Edwards, David Edwards, serves as the Director-General of State Planning.

    Good to see nepotism and cronyism are alive and well.

    Amazing how much ranting there is fro the ST’s of the world when Labor do this stuff.

    Just underline the evidence they are hypocrites

  29. S
    I look forward to Essendon bombarding us with the facts now that they are no longer restricted from hiding the full truth.

  30. [So under this statement, give what Jobe Watson has already said, how come no charge?]

    I don’t know. I’m still surprised that Hird is still coach, after all that has been revealed about his supposed knowledge and involvement.

  32. [As for Abbott’s remarka, they are sexist, and typical, but wil cost him no/few votes in the demographic he is appealling too.]

    I think you’re crediting him with too much guile. The comment was a blunder, not a calculated ploy. It made the nightly news, and caused a lot of women who might vote either way to go “eww”.

  33. Whether Abbott’s sex appeal remark changes or determines a vote, depends on;

    a) how many people hear it,

    b) how many are offended by it, and

    c) how many find it inappropriate for one standing for PM.

  34. No players have been charged YET the investigation continues. This first lot of charges is just about saving the integrity of the finals by not letting the bombers play imo

  35. Sophie Mirabella is one of the most beautiful MP’s in Parliament, or at least my husband says so. I’m so jealous of her curves!

  38. I certainly wouldn’t expect Abbott’s behaviour today to affect his ratings in any negative way. If I recall correctly, during the last campaign a lot of us were expecting him to take a hit for his “no means no” joke, and he actually ended up gaining ground.

  40. “Sophie Mirabella is one of the most beautiful MP’s in Parliament, or at least my husband says so. I’m so jealous of her curves!” – brilliant! Love it. More insights like that please, Lady Miranda. Who else does your husband fancy?

  41. [He was trying to say, Geez i’d love to get her preggers and walk away, just like the old days at Uni.]

    All charm is tone

    call them sexy
    stroke their buttocks
    punch the wall
    then get them preggers and walk away.

  44. [why does the gravatar look like a swastika, is that deliberate]

    I’ve noticed the same about Sean Tism’s as well.

    Perhaps it is deliberate.

  46. If there is a shift in polling either way I’d think today’s Abbott comments would have very little to do with it.

  47. Centre /633

    (1) Probably a small, but significant, percentage of the population.
    (2) To all intents and purposes zero
    (3) To all intents and purposes zero

    The people here are making any excuse to cling onto the imaginary hope that Kevin Rudd can pull off the impossible. They should accept reality and meditate peacefully.

  48. sf

    On current polling it is looking like two times as many Greens as Nats, and around 8% of the total vote.

    The Informal Party is hot on your heels.

  49. Mick77

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Not the type of behaviour/comment I would expect from someone aspiring to be PM.

    I do not in anyway condone Rudd’s behaviour either.

    But Rudd gets your vote anyway even though his truly sexist and foul behaviour dwarfs Abbott’s comment.
    ——————————————————-

    I think you are being deliberately obtuse and provocative.

    Labor will get my vote for all the reason I outlined in my previous response to you.

    If you do understand what I said then YOU have a problem – not me.

    I can suggest some very good professionals who can assist with remedial reading and cognitive skills.

Comments Page 13 of 18
1 … 12 13 14 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *