Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. ‘Didn’t Hockey say something along the lines of Gillard telling more lies than Paris Hilton has had one night stands at the last election?’

    Without doubt.
    But one is going to be federal treasurer and the other minister for education.

    And the ALP, in it’s current timid, under confident pissweak manifestation is powlerless to stop it happening.

    And if you think that’s bad……Abbott is going to Prime minister of Australia

  2. Why is Mumbling mumbling about ‘ploys’ when it comes to talking up the GST? Mumbles should be calling for full costings from Abbott&Co.

    Oh. I forgot. The absence of costings is a ploy.

    That makes it OK, then.

  3. Costello real treasurer? FFS. A guy too gutless to stand up to JWH squandering Mining Boom 1 on welfare houndouts or to challenge the guy.

    Mick77 I hope you have someone more trustworthy than SOphie to change those diapers.

  4. AA
    [Not the type of behaviour/comment I would expect from someone aspiring to be PM.

    I do not in anyway condone Rudd’s behaviour either.]
    But Rudd gets your vote anyway even though his truly sexist and foul behaviour dwarfs Abbott’s comment.

  5. [Killer politics from the killers.]

    My, Rosemour, you’re easily spooked. Thats an incredibly puerile and embarassing line from Sloppy, who may yet lose the LNP the election with his utterly ineffective “angry pose with inane warble” still lifes of the state of the economy.

  6. Hey M77, you left out Abbott’s coupling of ‘youth’ with ‘sex appeal’.

    It was the Abbott double whammy sleaze deluxe. I do hope the blue rinse set realize that Abbott thinks that they lack sex appeal because they are old.

  7. Mick, he was sacked. Did you forget? 😛

    Well, that aside, the only people who can really sack him are the voters in his electorate.

  8. Boerwar

    I agree. The evidence you have already described was enough for French police to charge the Astina team years ago. They didn’t find the cyclists doping up, or testing positive. They found all the drug kit in their support car, and threw the team out of the race.

  9. No matter how far they come in professional life, a lady still loves to be noticed for her looks, amiright TOnes??

    I dont know why anyones bothering to pretend theres nuthin to see here.

    He really is a bit of a porkchop.

  10. Those Liberals: tits, sex with dogs, swimmers slung low with manly wedding tackle, and Rooty Hill.

    C’mon guys. Concentrate. Think policy.

  11. [So what would happen in any workplace to Rudd for his F-bombs around all his workers, including females?]

    Nothing. The offences against political correctness that Abbott is being charged with, whatever you might think of them, have nothing at all in common with Rudd’s failure to observe Victorian niceties about avoiding coarse language in the presence of a lady (assuming it’s true).

  12. [ Well, that aside, the only people who can really sack him are the voters in his electorate. ]

    Well, I guess both Abbott and Rudd have now lost Mick’s vote.

    Seems fair enough.

  13. I’ve enjoyed the faux rage from the upright citizens of PB who can never again say that Kate Ellis is good-looking. And meantime you can still get $7.00 at betfair on the master communicator of the F word who has never offended any woman here or elsewhere.

  14. [So what would happen in any workplace to Rudd for his F-bombs around all his workers, including females? Hanging?]

    False equivalence. But yeah, it depends on the situation and how the other employees feel that would determine whether something would be said or not. Even so, just dropping F bombs, unless it offended a client, would probably initially just warrant an unofficial warning.

  15. Part of the Essendon statement:
    [“Since the Club first raised its concerns with the AFL and proactively invited ASADA to investigate these matters, we have co-operated fully with all enquiries.

    “It is also important to be very clear that there is no doubt the Club and individuals have made mistakes and that our governance and people management had significant gaps.”]
    So if you self report to the AFL before you get busted you get off?

    What were the mistakes? If the Club made mistakes, not just individuals, why have only charges against individuals been announced? What did the Club report to the AFL? Did it have evidence that players took banned drugs?

  16. Albo was crap in the debate against Turncoat. Rudd really is left with the B if not C team.

    But loading up Albo with TWU HUGE portfolios, just to keep him too busy to keep a check on Rudd, was a stupid idea only a megolamaniac like Rudd would think was a good idea. Albo should have told him to get stuffed—he is Deputy PM and can choose his own portfolio!

  17. M77

    Using betting odds to bolster a sham conceptual case is weird stuff, even for Liberal supporters. Just be honest and admit that a few more cock-ups of a sexual nature like this and Abbott will be what he so richly deserves to be: trash in the dustbin of history.

    Meanwhile, AGW is a-comin’ in.

  18. Well Abbott has come out, and true to form, provide a half-baked smart-arse apology to the nation.

    [Adam Todd ‏@_AdamTodd 29m
    BREAKING: Abbott says he was “a bit exuberant” with his “sex appeal” comment. No apology or withdrawal #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/gdrTTaH4LK]

  19. [I’ve enjoyed the faux rage from the upright citizens of PB who can never again say that Kate Ellis is good-looking.]

    You’re really stretching it if you’re comparing the comments of the leader of a political party, with those of people on the internet.

  20. William
    [So what would happen in any workplace to Rudd for his F-bombs around all his workers, including females?

    Nothing.]
    Not so – I wouldn’t suggest you try it. About ten years ago a very senior colleague of mine was read the riot act for using the F word a few times (casually)at a meeting and a female present complained, as she should have. To anyone other than the rusted-on Laborites here, it is far more offensive.

  21. So, Abbott was a ‘bit exuberant’ with his ‘sex appeal’ comment?

    Is he now trying to tell us that the candidates are dogs?

    ‘Oh, what a tangled web we weave: When first we practise to deceive!’

    We need to get M77 on the case to deconstruct what Abbott is actually trying to communicate about female Liberal candidates.

  22. [why have only charges against individuals been announced? ]

    No charges against the players. The club was charged along with the officials named in the statement.

  23. [ Not so – I wouldn’t suggest you try it. About ten years ago a very senior colleague of mine was read the riot act for using the F word a few times (casually)at a meeting and a female present complained, as she should have. To anyone other than the rusted-on Laborites here, it is far more offensive. ]

    Mick, the innate sexism of every statement you make is simply astounding. Would it have made a difference if a male present had complained?

    Hint: If your answer is “yes”, your company (like you) is being very sexist.

  24. Mick77

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Not the type of behaviour/comment I would expect from someone aspiring to be PM.

    I do not in anyway condone Rudd’s behaviour either.

    But Rudd gets your vote anyway even though his truly sexist and foul behaviour dwarfs Abbott’s comment.
    —————————————————-

    Labor will get my vote. I don’t trust Abbott/Hockey.

    They wont tell the truth or come clean with their projections, they have consistently lied about the OZ economy to the detriment of peoples confidence and no doubt business confidence. I would like to see how much they have cost Australia with their ‘trash’ talk I reckon it would be in the billions lost from investments going elsewhere.

    Tow/turn the boats back to stop is fantasy. USA has been doing that for 50 years and it hasn’t stopped the boats or the deaths.

    The Liberals deserted Australia during the GFC. This is when they truly lost me forever. Kept saying “we have a better plan” but never articulated what their plan was, I think was another lie. The refused to take a bi-partisan approach to saving Australia from the effects of the GFC, I am thankful we had a decent Government at the time.

  25. [BREAKING: Abbott says he was “a bit exuberant” with his “sex appeal” comment. No apology or withdrawal #ausvotes ]

    So that’s it then.

    Team Abbott plays our media off a break.

  26. Confessions

    I understand that is what the AFL have done. My point is, that is not what the ASADA code says they should have done. As per 588, any of the 8 code breaches can lead to a ban.

  27. joe-hockeys-wife-appointed-to-qsuper-board-20130812-2rsdy.html

    ===========================================================

    The Queensland government has quietly appointed the wife of shadow treasurer Joe Hockey to the QSuper Board.

    Sydney-based Melissa Babbage, a self-made millionaire and former senior executive at Deutsche Bank, was appointed to the $45,000 position at the state public servant super fund without fanfare in June.

    Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls gazetted Ms Babbage’s appointment on June 19, however the government did not issue a release despite publicly announcing appointments to the Games Infrastructure, Emerald Agricultural and Racing Industry boards in the months before and after.

    A spokesman for Mr Nicholls said “a number of people” had been considered for the board position, but Ms Babbage was found to be “an exceptional c

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/joe-hockeys-wife-appointed-to-qsuper-board-20130812-2rsdy.html#ixzz2bqSi4fei

  28. shellbell

    ‘England women defending very stoutly.

    Laura Marsh 17 not out off 160 balls’

    That is all very well. But does she have sex appeal?

  29. my say

    ‘A spokesman for Mr Nicholls said “a number of people” had been considered for the board position, but Ms Babbage was found to be “an exceptional c…’

    That is all very well. But did she have sex appeal?

  30. one day it is inserting items up the rear end the next day it is sexy chicks. he must be watching some good porn. what do we have to look forward to tomorrow. animals surely.

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